Nafta, škriljci, gasovodi i tankeri - sve na jednom mestu

[pasha]

Nisu SAD izvoznici. Oni uvoze naftu pa onda prerade pa to racunaju, plus racunaju NGPL i slicno. SAD uvoze ukupno oko 3-4miliona b/d kada se uzme uvoz-izvoz. evo primer sa pocetka februara nedeljni izvestaj EIA

 

Quote

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.6 million barrels per day last week, down by 46,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.6 million barrels per day, 12.3% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 676,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 194,000 barrels per day.

 

U ovo nije uracunat izvoz, koji se krece 2-3 miliona b/d. Pa se konacno dobiju ovakve brojke:

 

Net Imports (Thousand Barrels per Day)Four Weeks Ending1/31/201/24/202/1/19

Crude Oil 3,1103,

Petroleum Products-3,289

Total-178-382,298

[pasha]

1 hour ago, Peter Fan said:

A, dobro - oni stite svoje parcijalne interese.

 

Lako se da izracunati ta dodatna vrijednost i zaposlenost koja prositice is njihovih postrojenja, a cisto sumnjam da je veca od zapostlenosti koju ostatak naftne industrije ima. 

 

No to po strani, ako je cilj energentska nezavisnost, onda je interes tih par rafinerija sporedan. Uvedu se tarife do odredjenog plafona i onda se razlika trpa u nekoi fond za razvoj energetike (renewables, nuklearke, itd). Imaju korisiti svi u energestkom sektoru, a Rusi I Arapi nek se jebu dok im ne dosadi.

 

Velike integrisane naftne kompanije poput Eksona i Sevrona imaju vadjenje i preradu, to funkcionise tako da kada cena sirove nafte padne onda to delimicno nadoknadi prerada tj. rafinerije. I bez pada cena nafte, SAD bi max isle na 1.5-2 mb/d sa sadasnjeg nivoa oko 2025 a onda bi isla stagnacija i pad. Jednostavna takva je geologija.

 

 

Ja mogu da ti objasnjvam po svakom regionu skriljaca tipa Baken(Severna Dakota); Igl Ford(Teksas); Permian(Teksad i Novi Meksiko). To su 3 najvaznija, od cega 2 su prakticno na vrhuncu dok Permian ima jos potencijal da raste. Geologija skriljaca je drugacija od konvencionalnih naftnih bunara. Oni imaju veliki pocetni rast proizvodnje a onda naglo pada i treba stalno da se vrsi veliki broj novih busotina. To izgleda neverovatno, kao mravinjak. Iz ovakve geologije i potrebe za velikom kolicinom peska, vode i hemikalija naftne kompanije na skriljcima prave gubitke iz godine u godinu. Manji broj kompanija moze da bude pozitivan ali ukupno svi zajedno prave gubitke u desetinama i stotinama milijardi $. To se sve finansira zaduzivanjem i emitovanjem deonica. Pa onda ima nesto sto se zove CLO(colateral loan obligation), finansijski instrument, koji je dosta koriscen od strane naftnih kompanoja na skriljcima. Tu nastaje problem za ceo finansijski sektor SAD.

 

Rafinerijama u Meksickom zalivu je potrebna teska nafta za mesanje sa lakom naftom sa skriljaca. Dosta nafte sa skriljaca rafinerije u SAD ne mogu da obrade. Zato je skinuta zabrana izvoza pre oko 5 godina. Teska nafta se uvozi iz Venecuele, Persijskog zaliva i cak Rusije. Neke od najvecih rafinerija drze Saudijci.

Karatkeristika nafte sa skriljaca da je ona na granici da se smatra naftom, moze ici i prema gas-laka je. To se inace desava na busotinama, da se vise pojavljuje gas nego li nafta.

[Ravanelli]

nisam te sada ispratio za ovaj net export import, ali može to kasnije

 

 

breaking je da se OPEC+ sastaje u četvrtak

G20 u petak

[Ravanelli]

OPAAAA!!

 

cut OPEC+ je 10 mil bbl/d

 

dođeš mi piće pašenože

[pasha]

I sta se desilo sa cenom nafte na zatvaranju za danasnji dan?

[pasha]

On 5.4.2020. at 0:41, pasha said:

Mislim  da je veci problem brbljanje Trampa o seci 10-15 miliona koje ce odraditi Saudijci i Rusi. Treba sada te gluposti peglati da trziste spusti ocekivanja.

Sto se tice Norveske, kruna se raspala krajem marta. Vidim da su vec iz svog fonda, koji je ogroman, povukli preko $100 milijardi. Oni mislim da nikada nisu ucestvovali u secama sa opec-om ali izgleda ovo stanje i to menja.

Mada ja ne verujem da ce seca od 10 miliona znacajno povecati cene, stavise, mislim da ce cena pasti ali nece ici isopod nekog nivoa npr.  $15-20 na WTI. Mora da prodje vrhunac virusa, pa jo malo vremena da se vidi kako ce se privrede sveta oporavljati za znacajni skok cena.

 

Ja mislim da se desilo bas ovo iznad sto sam napisa 5. aprila

 

[Ravanelli]

Aaa nenene deset je deset! 

 

Apsajd je vec bio uracunat naravno, jer je bilo malo sanse da pukne jer su se tate dogovorile (tako su i skocile cene) , a usa je izdala svoja predvidjanja proizvodnje pre koji dan sa cutom na nivou sledece 2g

Bice interesntno ko ce sta da kaze sutra na g20

Bice to dobar precutni kartel. Hipernormalizacija at its best

 

 

Edited April 9, 2020 by Ravanelli

[pasha]

Nema tu nikakve sece od strane SAD, eventualno Meksicki zaliv a ne skriljci. Oni imaju predvidjanje velikog pada trzisno u slucaju da se cene krecu $20-40 jer su skriljci neisplativi na tim cenama pa se zatvaraju busotine ili ne otvaraju nove sto je potrebno za skriljce. Ali nece. ako se virus primiri upravo zbog pada proizvodnje u SAD ce se cene opet dignuti a time i proizvodnja podici.

Sta ima da kaze g20, tamo gomili zemalja odgovaraju nize cene nafte. Zasto bi se Japan, Nemacka, Kina ili Francuska bunile zbog nizih cena nafte?!

Tehnicki gledano ako se gleda graf negde na $20 je dno sa kojeg bi trebalo da nafta leti na preko $150 u narednim godinama. Tu se negde poklapa i fundament  u ponudi i potraznji ali ovo sa virusom i svasta jos nesto moze da poremeti tu sliku.

[Ravanelli]

G20 u smislu da ce se jos neko prikljuciti, ne buniti, naravno. Vec sam pricao da je fatih birol (iea) to organizovao. Prema najavama norvezani i kanadjani su in

 

Usa je objavila "očekivane" "cutove", od kojih veci deo mora deo da dodje iz skriljaca, preveliki im je pad za samo coventionals. Koliko se secam short term outlook grafika idu sa 13mil bbl/d na ravno 11

[pasha]

Oni su vec juce pali za 600k b/d po objavama eia. Tako da ce oni ici trzisno, navodno. U SAD postoje antimonopolski zakoni koji zabranjuju takav vid udruzivanja. Mogu nesto da izmuvaju na naftnim plaformama u Meksickom zalivu.

[Ravanelli]

Looooool

 

Mexikanci blokiraju deal jer su hedgovali naftu na 49 

 

Jujujuju 

[Ravanelli]

Gledajuci kako sada planiraju seču, ovi su otisli na scenario sporog oporavka ekonomije :(

 

Mexikanci su valjda izasli sa sastanka. Mozda ce pristati na nesto danas na G20

 

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Adjust downwards their overall crude oil production by 10.0 mb/d, starting on 1 May 2020, for an initial period of two months that concludes on 30 June 2020. For the subsequent period of 6 months, from 1 July 2020 to 31 December 2020, the total adjustment agreed will be 8.0 mb/d. It will be followed by a 6.0 mb/d adjustment for a period of 16 months, from 1 January 2021 to 30 April 2022. The baseline for the calculation of the adjustments is the oil production of October 2018, except for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and The Russian Federation, both with the same baseline level of 11.0 mb/d. The agreement will be valid until 30 April 2022, however, the extension of this agreement will be reviewed during December 2021.

 
Call upon all major producers to contribute to the efforts aimed at stabilizing market.
 
Reaffirm and extend the mandate of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) and its membership, to closely review general market conditions, oil production levels and the level of conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation and this Statement, assisted by the Joint Technical Committee (JTC) and the OPEC Secretariat.
 
Reaffirm that the Declaration of Cooperation conformity is to be monitored considering crude oil production, based on the information from secondary sources, according to the methodology applied for OPEC Member Countries.
 
Meet on 10 June 2020 via webinar, to determine further actions, as needed to balance the market.

Edited April 10, 2020 by Ravanelli

[Ravanelli]

Danas u 14h po srpskom vremenu g20 o smanjenju proizvodnje

Ako mehiko ne legne na rudu dogovor mozda i propadne (traze im cut od 400hilj bbl/d, oni spremni na 100)

 

Znaci meksiko drzo donaldove mošnice u šaci

 

Kako se okreće sve

 

 

[pasha]

Ne bih rekao da ce Donald da pukne zbog toga. FED je ionako poceo da kupuje ranze finansijske instrumente i obveznice niskog kreditnog rejtinga. Donaldu moze biti problem sto zemlje iz Persijskog zaliva i Norvezani mogu nastaviti izvlaciti novac sa berze ako je cena nafte niska ali i to se da resiti sa npr. Japancima.

[pasha]

Bill would remove U.S. troops from Saudi Arabia in 30 days

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A Republican U.S. senator introduced legislation on Thursday to remove American troops from Saudi Arabia, adding pressure on the kingdom to tighten its oil taps to reverse the crude price drop that has hurt domestic energy companies.

The extra oil from Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, has made it impossible for energy companies in the United States, the world’s top oil and gas producer, to compete, Cassidy said.

“Withdrawing troops placed to protect others recognizes that friendship and support is a two-way street,” he said.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-usa-senate/bill-would-remove-us-troops-from-saudi-arabia-in-30-days-idUSKCN21R3HG

 

In response to Saudi aggression, Cassidy to introduce bill to withdraw American troops, impose oil tariffs

 

WASHINGTON – U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy, M.D. (R-LA) and chairman of the Senate Energy Subcommittee, intends to introduce legislation when Congress reconvenes that would impose tariffs on oil imports from Saudi Arabia and withdraw American troops from the country.

The bill is in response to Saudi Arabia’s manipulation of the oil market that is threatening American energy jobs.

Saudi Arabia has slashed oil prices below the cost of production, which has made it impossible for American producers to compete.

Saudi Arabia’s actions, coupled with a steep decline in demand due to the coronavirus lockdown, have put at risk the viability of the American oil and gas industry and the tens of thousands of jobs it provides. 

“Our nation’s economy, national security and the economic welfare of families across Louisiana is threatened by oil being dumped on the world market at below-production costs. The US spends billions protecting other oil producing countries and their ability to safely transport oil around the world. Now is the time to protect ourselves. Tariffs will restore fair pricing. Withdrawing troops placed to protect others recognizes that friendship and support is a two-way street,” said Dr. Cassidy. 

The bill requires that the United States removes all troops from Saudi Arabia 30 days after enactment, and it prohibits funds from being used to keep US troops there.

It also requires the president to impose tariffs on Saudi petroleum and any petroleum-related produce or byproduct to ensure the price of Saudi imports in not less than $40 per barrel, or face penalties.

 

https://wgno.com/news/in-response-to-saudi-aggression-cassidy-to-introduce-bill-to-withdraw-american-troops-impose-oil-tariffs/