Modelovanje epidemije i dugoročne procene njenog kretanja

[Ravanelli]

Whoa! Preko kanalizacije

[Shitgenstein]

fivethirtyeight: coronavirus case counts are meaningless.*

*Unless you know something about testing. And even then, it gets complicated.

[vememah]

 

http://www.uni-goettingen.de/de/document/download/3d655c689badb262c2aac8a16385bf74.pdf/Bommer & Vollmer (2020) COVID-19 detection April 2nd.pdf

[Budja]

Dva OGROMNA metodoloska problema:

1. Pretpostavlja se da su rezultati testova dostupni javnosti istog dana kada su se testovi izvrsili. Otuda se dele smrti 31 marta sa slucajevima 17 marta kao baza za procenat detektovanih. Medjutim, u Ekvadoru je, u proseku, time delay dve nedelje - dakle, slucajevi od 17 marta odgovaraju pojavi simptoma od 3. marta. To  znacajno uvecava underdetection rate.

2. Stopa smrtnosti se koriguje samo za starost stanovnistva a ne i za stanje zdravstvenog sistema. Kako je mladje stanovnistvo u siromasnijim zemljama, sa slabijim zdravstvenim sistemom, ta stopa smrtnosti je potcenjena za siromasije zemlje.

 

Za Ekvador, procena od 610000 zarazenih 31 marta nema mnogo smisla.

 

Medjutim, Ekvador sada izbacuje krivu sa rasporedom slucajeva na dan pojave simptoma.

 

Danasnji rezultati kazuju sledece

Broj umrlih: 717 osoba

Broj potvrdjenih slucajeva na dan pojave simptoma (-14 dana) 28 marta: 6956

Estimated detection rate u tom slucaju, sa istom infection fatality rate, je: 4.56% (u clanku je 0.37%)

 

Ukupan procenjen broj slucajeva je onda: 152553 (u odnosu na 610563).

 

Ako bi se uzela u obzir, recimo, stopa  smrtnosti od 1% (a ne besmisleno niskih 0.47% u situaciji kada se zdravsveni sistem u Gvajakilu raspada), onda bi broj slucajeva bio 71.700, sto je mnogo blize intuiciji.

 

 

6 hours ago, vememah said:

 

Edited April 13, 2020 by Budja

[vememah]

1 hour ago, Budja said:

Dva OGROMNA metodoloska problema

Rade ljudi s onim što imaju, pribavljanje verodostojnih procena kašnjenja testiranja i trenutne preopterećenosti zdravstvenog sistema za ovoliki broj zemalja pre spada u domen bezbednosnih agencija nego akademske sredine.

Edited April 13, 2020 by vememah

[Budja]

8 hours ago, vememah said:

Rade ljudi s onim što imaju, pribavljanje verodostojnih procena kašnjenja testiranja i trenutne preopterećenosti zdravstvenog sistema za ovoliki broj zemalja pre spada u domen bezbednosnih agencija nego akademske sredine.

 

GIGO, garbage in-garbage out.

[gsb]

 

Prof iz MG i sa PMF-a objasnjava onaj jednostavniji SIR model kako se dolazi do sistema diferencijalnih jednacina, sta koji

broj u modelu znaci i analizira i resava sistem.

Meni je bilo bas dobro.

 

 

[dvb-t manijak]

Obrada podataka metodama mašinskog učenja i veštačke inteligencije.

Quote

 

Deep Analysis Of Global Pandemic Data Reveals Important Insights

A massive amount of data about the pandemic is generated every day. Although organizations such as WHO, CDC, Johns Hopkins University, and Worldometers are disseminating important statistics daily, the data is not analyzed in an efficient way to provide insights. The COVID-19 pandemic is a complex system involving biology, human behavior, companies, and governments, and it’s influenced by healthcare, economics, governance, and geopolitics. Sophisticated analytical methods could help improve economic, societal, and geopolitical stability. Deep Knowledge Group has developed advanced analytical frameworks to analyze this data. The results are presented in the form of open source country rankings to help people and governments make informed decisions that maximize beneficial outcomes for humanity.

 

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/cognitiveworld/2020/04/13/covid-19-complexity-demands-sophisticated-analytics-deep-analysis-of-global-pandemic-data-reveals-important-insights/#6df110b2f6e2

 

 

https://www.dkv.global/methodology

 

[braca]

Super, pa kad veštačka inteligencija zaključi da smo mi virus na planeti i lepo nas eliminiše... 

[vememah]

https://mrc-ide.github.io/covid19estimates/#/total-infected

 

3% OF DUTCH BLOOD DONORS HAVE COVID-19 ANTIBODIES
By Janene Pieters on April 16, 2020 - 10:35

About 3 percent of blood donors in the Netherlands have developed antibodies against Covid-19, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus, RIVM director Jaap van Dissel told the Tweede Kamer based on an as-yet-unpublished study by blood bank Sanquin, NU.nl reports.

If blood donors are representative of the Dutch population, then around 3 percent of Netherlands residents have had the coronavirus to a more or lesser extent. "This concerns several hundred thousand Dutch people," Van Dissel said during his weekly update on the state of affairs surrounding the coronavirus to parliament.

Sanquin tested blood and plasma samples of Dutch donors to see if they've had the virus. Preliminary results show that the presence of antibodies differs per age group. 3.6 percent of young blood donors between 18 and 20 years old (688 individuals) have Covid-19 antibodies. That percentage decreases as donors get older. No antibodies were found among donors between the ages of 71 and 80, though the number of donors in that age group is also much lower - only 10 individuals.


Van Dissel stressed that the investigation is still ongoing. But this suggests that individuals who have recovered from the coronavirus have "some degree of immunity". The RIVM previously said that people with milder symptoms seem to build up less immunity than people who became very ill from Covid-19.

https://nltimes.nl/2020/04/16/3-dutch-blood-donors-covid-19-antibodies Edited April 17, 2020 by vememah

[iDemo]

On 8.4.2020. at 8:38, vememah said:

Institut za zdravstvenu metriku i procenu IHME iz Sijetla, čiji je osnivač Univerzitet Vašington

 

 

Palo pranje i podmazivanje IHME rezultata/modelovanja™

 

US COVID-19 deaths "poorly predicted" by IHME model 14 April 2020

 

Quote

An international group of data scientists led by the University of Sydney's Centre for Translational Data Science has found that over 70 percent of US states had death rates that were inconsistent with IHME predictions.

 

[vememah]

Da bude i ovde ova studija s Harvarda:

 

Quote

Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period

Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded. To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022. Additional interventions, including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity. Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.

 

PDF cele studije:

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793/tab-pdf

Edited April 17, 2020 by vememah

[gone fishing]

7 hours ago, vememah said:

https://mrc-ide.github.io/covid19estimates/#/total-infected

 

 

 

https://nltimes.nl/2020/04/16/3-dutch-blood-donors-covid-19-antibodies

lol

da li je gospodin van dizel uračunao to da je i njihovim penzošima rečeno da ostanu kući , da krv daju samo zdrave osobe, da deca ne daju krv itd

- kada se sve to uzme u obzir nema trika da je inficirano 3% lala, možda duplo manje ako i toliko

[yabadaba]

Kako mislis duplo manje? Ako krv daju samo zdravi onda u populaciji ima vise prelezalih

[gone fishing]

kad kažem zdravi, znači da krv ne daju ljudi sa hroničnim bolestima, povišen pritisak, problemi sa srcem, alegrijama, asmatičari itd

- oni nisu među davaocima, oni takođe sada izbegavaju kontakt sa ljudima, dakle nisu ni među onima koji se spremaju za tur d frans ili olimpijadu u tokiju, manje i štaju pa su manje izloženi dahtanju tih rekrativaca, oko čije virulentnosti se već danima lome koplja na forumu

- nije slučajno da je najviše pozitivnih bilo u populaciji od 18 do 20 godina 3,6% ta je populacija mnogo aktivnija od one 50+ oni idu na basket sa društvom, bleje po parkovima i žurkama itd