3 hours ago, Aleksija said:

 

naleteh na ovaj clanak: https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

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Taking account of historical experience, trends in the data, increased number of infections in the population at larget, and misclassification of deaths we consider COVID-19 IFR lies somewhere between 0.1% and 0.26%.*

*Demographic changes in the population could vary the IFR. In younger populations, the IFR will be lower. Comorbidities will have a significant impact to increase the IFR: those with ≥ 3 comorbidities are at much higher risk. Modelling the data on the prevalence of comorbidities is essential to understand the CFR and IFR by age (the prevalence of comorbidities is highly age-dependent and is higher in socially deprived populations). It is also not clear if the presence of other circulating influenza illnesses acts to increase the IFR (testing for co-pathogens is not occurring). And whether certain populations (e.g., those with heart conditions) are more at risk.

• In those without pre-existing health conditions, and over 70, the data is reassuring that the IFR will likely not exceed 1%.
• Mortality in children seems to be near zero (unlike flu) which is also reassuring and will act to drive down the IFR significantly.

It is now essential to understand whether individuals are dying with or from the disease. Understanding this issue is critical. If, for instance, 80% of those over 80 die with the disease then the CFR  would be near 3% in this age group as opposed to 15%. Cause of death information from death certificates is often inaccurate and incomplete, particularly for conditions such as pneumonia. These factors would act to lower the IFR.

Antibody testing will provide an accurate understanding of how many people have been infected so far, and permit a more accurate estimate of the IFR.

koliko vidim, govore o tome da ce se smrtnost verovatno pokazati kao mnogo niza nego sto je na pocetku izgledalo - iako to jos uvek ne mozemo znati.

s druge strane, to u ovom trenutku nije uopste od znacaja za pojedinacne zdravstvene sisteme, kao i ljude koji su ugrozeni, do zagusenja ce izgleda doci skoro svuda, negde sa katastrofalnim posledicama. 

 

 

 

Da. Ono sto mi se cini kao najvaznija poruka ove krize koju jednostavno moramo da cujemo je da zdravlje ne moze da bude tretirano kao roba a zdravstveni sistem ubuduce ne sme da podleze tim cuvenim cost-benefit analizama. Pukli su i zdravstveni sistemi koji su vazili za superiorne, ocigledno je taj cuveni ljudski, kulturoloski "tako je kod nas, mi smo stoka" argument samo deo problema. Bolje je da gomilamo i steshujemo lekare, medicinske sestre, medicinsku opremu koji nam trenutno nisu neophodni nego da stalno dolazimo u situacije da gomilamo brasno, ulje i toaletni papir.

2 minutes ago, harper said:

Bolje je da gomilamo i steshujemo lekare, medicinske sestre, medicinsku opremu koji nam trenutno nisu neophodni nego da stalno dolazimo u situacije da gomilamo brasno, ulje i toaletni papir.

Shvataš da je kasno bar 30 godina za ovo?

u blokovima je ispred velikih marketa poveci red, ali ispred maksija u unutrasnjosti bloka 63 i ispred prodavnica u zgradama nema gotovo nikoga.

u maksiju su neke police poluprazne, hemija, mljecni proizvodi, nista esencijalno ne nedostaje, vise izgleda kao da je neki sleper zaglavio na granici

1 minute ago, desboj said:

Shvataš da je kasno bar 30 godina za ovo?

 

Istorija drustva se ne krece linearno, i pored toga sto cesto verujemo u to. Sto znaci da nista ne moze da bude prekasno ili prerano, samo neuvremenjeno. Taj proces ce dugo trajati, sve i da danas shvatimo da se zdravlje ne sme tretirati kao roba, ali ga nije nemoguce izvesti.

6 minutes ago, harper said:

 

Da. Ono sto mi se cini kao najvaznija poruka ove krize koju jednostavno moramo da cujemo je da zdravlje ne moze da bude tretirano kao roba a zdravstveni sistem ubuduce ne sme da podleze tim cuvenim cost-benefit analizama. Pukli su i zdravstveni sistemi koji su vazili za superiorne, ocigledno je taj cuveni ljudski, kulturoloski "tako je kod nas, mi smo stoka" argument samo deo problema. Bolje je da gomilamo i steshujemo lekare, medicinske sestre, medicinsku opremu koji nam trenutno nisu neophodni nego da stalno dolazimo u situacije da gomilamo brasno, ulje i toaletni papir.

 

Sasvim tacno. I ljudi se tretiraju kao roba. To je kapitalizam.

Sad kada znamo da komunizam ne valja, valjda cemo shvatiti da i kapitalizam, ovakav kakav je, ne valja.

Mozemo li prelomiti i naci nesto sto smo skoro imali u Jugoslaviji a da bude jos bolje ? Ja ne verujem.

Edited March 30, 20205 yr by cedo

Pre deset dana sam narucio kutiju rukavica od domaceg dilera, online.Prosla porudzbina al ne lezi vraze, sutra je zvao dasa da mi kaze kako vise nemaju. Ja ga napusio,kako prodaju ono sto nemaju na stanju tra la la...Kad danas lik zove i kaze stiglo im iz uvoza, zelim li kutiju rukavica koju sam porucio onomad.Naravno da zelim, doduse sad je cena malo veca jel...

9 minutes ago, dùda said:

Pa to.

Vučić svojim istupima samo štetu pravi.

 

Ed.

Nadovezala se na morganin post.

 

Zanemari traljav engleski, pisao sam ovo u pet ujutru.

 

When you build a system on certain principle it is reasonable to expect that whoever is the most successful in demonstrating that principle should eventually end up at the top of the food-chain. Just like in a race fastest or the most durable racer usually wins, same is with societies. The logic is simple, whatever game we are playing, those who are the best playing it will come out rewarded with the special status of the champion. If you build society on justice, compassion, solidarity, reason and strong sense for public interest, these are exactly the qualities you will try to find in your champion. What happens when you build society on mindless competition, selfishness, manipulation, corruption, lies and strong commitment to individual interest that overshadow the public one? Well, you will still search for qualities of the other society, the first one I mentioned, but it must be a fool's hope to believe you will find them in your champions. They simply do not fit into the principle. It is, in fact, more likely that logic will prevail and that at the end of the day you will have exactly the champion in “qualities” you built society in a first place. It is their race and the obvious racers, one cannot expect to have one racers in the race and completely opposite at the finish line. When they cross that line it is too late to complain on quality of your champion. It was, after all, the fair race in cheating, since that is your social principle.
 

When I look at the ways different government treat their citizens during this crisis with the new virus and the citizen’s response, it is almost crystal clear to me on what basis and with which qualities different people built different societies. Messages are the same – stay at home, cut the social contact, protect the old, etc. – but the way those messages are conveyed to the public differ from spreading hysteria and panic from the top of the political management to a mild but resolute invitation to the citizens to stay together and strong in crisis that we will eventually prevail. At least, that is what we are good at, to prevail in crisis. We had so many of them and we learned that particular skill.
 

But, it is the citizen’s response that caught my eye in this crisis. Where those citizens who received positive messages from their government (like in Canada, for example) response is disciplined and reason is included, those who received double, unclear or, even worse, hysteric messages from their governments constitute three distinctive groups in response 1. those who reject. 2. those who justify and willingly support even the worst forms of social conditioning with an excuse of “behaving like this for higher good” and 3. those who listen across the border or listen only to specialists to find out what the hell is going on. Key word here is trust and the ultimate trust, from the social point of view, is between the contractors in the relationship between citizens and state. In my understanding, it is this crisis that revealed with the high percent of accuracy level of trust between citizens and states in different societies. It is not matter of culture, or race, or gender, or nation, as some want us to believe, it is simply matter of trust.
 

So when we build societies we should be very careful to build them on principles that produce champions who we can trust. Because, if we build societies where those who cheat wins the race they won’t be able to win that one race our lives depend on. They wouldn’t know how. There are some things you cannot cheat. Viruses, for example.

Edited March 30, 20205 yr by harper

Ne mora linearno da se gleda ali zdravorazumski da.

Deda je pre 50 godina radio na rtg u selu 3 km pored Sremske Mitrovice a baba u istom selu u laboratoriji. 

Danas( zadnjih 30 godina) ljude iz nove Pazove ili Šida šalju na obično snimanje pluća u Mitrovicu koja sa dva ipo rtg aparata opslužuje ceo Srem.( Lažem ,ima aparata i u Šidu i Rumi, ali ne znam da li češće ne radi ili nema radiologa da očita)

 

Da ne pominjemo kompletan ep o partijskom zapošljavanju i negativnoj selekciji kadrova...

Edited March 30, 20205 yr by desboj
Dodao u zagradu

1 minute ago, desboj said:

Ne mora linearno da se gleda ali zdravorazumski da.

Deda je pre 50 godina radio na rtg u selu 3 km pored Sremske Mitrovice a baba u istom selu u laboratoriji. 

Danas( zadnjih 30 godina) ljude iz nove Pazove ili Šida šalju na obično snimanje pluća u Mitrovicu koja sa dva ipo rtg aparata opslužuje ceo Srem.

 

Da ne pominjemo kompletan ep o partijskom zapošljavanju i negativnoj selekciji kadrova...

 

Slazem se od prvog do poslednje slova, samo kazem da ne mora tako. Izgubili smo tu bitku ali ne i rat, sve se to moze poopraviti ako se dozovemo pameti. Poenta je da je kljuc za to dozivanje pameti da shvatimo da se zdravlje vise ne moze tretirati kao roba. Jednostavno se pokazalo da taj luksuz sebi vise ne mozemo da priustimo.

Just now, harper said:

 

Slazem se od prvog do poslednje slova, samo kazem da ne mora tako. Izgubili smo tu bitku ali ne i rat, sve se to moze poopraviti ako se dozovemo pameti. Poenta je da je kljuc za to dozivanje pameti da shvatimo da se zdravlje vise ne moze tretirati kao roba. Jednostavno se pokazalo da taj luksuz sebi vise ne mozemo da priustimo.

 

Hmm... ne znam da li si imao prilike da primetiš, aktuelno je nekih trideset godina, ali mi imamo negativan prirodni priraštaj, masovnu emigraciju i nikakav standard za privlačenje stranih doktora. Bolesti neće znati šta im se sprema kada odluče da nas napadnu.

Just now, harper said:

 

Izgubili smo tu bitku ali ne i rat, sve se to moze poopraviti ako se dozovemo pameti. 

Raduje me optimizam ali mi žao jer ga ne delim.

To dozivanje pameti sebi može priuštiti samo nekoliko zemalja/naroda/nacija u svetu.

Human rights clampdown as virus spreads in south-east Asia: experts

South-east Asian governments are taking advantage of the coronavirus pandemic to crack down on critics, according to Human Rights Watch.

 

As the disease has spread throughout the region, HRW's Asia director Brad Adams says four authoritarian regimes in particular have started to tighten their grips on what their citizens can say and do online, and in public.

 

"The governments of Cambodia, Thailand, the Philippines and Myanmar are all taking actions against their critics," he said.

 

The number of cases across the region is growing rapidly but unevenly. Singapore has managed to keep a reasonably tight lid on case numbers through strict measures such as contact tracing. It has so far reported 844 infections and three deaths.

 

But other countries such as Indonesia, which for nearly two months denied having any infections, have seen a rapid growth in case numbers. It had 1285 confirmed cases and 114 deaths as of Sunday, and has conducted just 6396 tests despite its 270 million people.

 

The Philippines has also seen the number of infections start to rise, with the latest figures counting 1418 positive cases from just 3113 tests conducted, and 71 deaths.

 

"This is standard behaviour by authoritarian south-east Asian leaders. They are taking advantage of the moment to go after people in a targeted manner. It’s not sweeping crackdowns or mass arrests – that’s because that leads to a backlash that could undermine their positions. What they are trying to do is make example of some people to scare everyone into submission."

 

People who have expressed concerns about the coronavirus' impact on Cambodia have been arrested for spreading fake news online, for example, including members of the dissolved main opposition party, the Cambodian National Rescue Party. The country has reported 103 cases so far.

 

Cambodian Prime Minster Hun Sen initially played down the severity of the outbreak, even welcoming a cruise ship that other countries refused to allow to dock, but he has since pivoted in his handling of the pandemic.

 

"Hun Sen is going after everybody as he has been sitting on a tinder box for years," Adams said.

 

Since the Philippines main island of Luzon went into lockdown on March 16, according to HRW, hundreds of people in Manila and other parts of the country have been arrested for violating curfews, quarantine regulations and social-distancing rules.

 

"With the Philippines, there is no one more erratic than [President Rodrigo] Duterte, he is more than willing to use the full force of the military, the police, death squads against his people. I don’t think anyone could feel comfortable that if he was angry enough, he wouldn’t use national interest to silence someone by violence or the law," Adams said.

 

In Thailand, where there were 1388 cases and seven deaths by Monday, an art gallery owner was arrested and charged for complaining on March 16 on Facebook about incoming passenger screening measures in place at Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi Airport. HRW says journalists and healthcare sector whistleblowers have also been targeted.

 

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte announced quarantine orders last week for the whole island of Luzon, the archipelago's most populous island.

 

"Thai authorities seem intent on shutting down critical opinions from the media and general public about their response to the COVID-19 crisis," Adam said.

And Myanmar only reported its first case of coronavirus in the past week and it has recorded eight infections so far. The regime there has also warned citizens against spreading fake news.

 

Griffith University lecturer Lee Morgenbesser, an expert on authoritarian regimes, said the virus provided the perfect pretext for leaders in Cambodia, Philippines, Thailand, and to a lesser extent Myanmar, to consolidate power and stifle free speech.

 

"First, the virus is so fast moving, what you think is correct about it can be different in a few days and it's difficult to contest the severity of what they are claiming about its impact," he said.

 

"People are dying and there is a lack of information. Second, given the severity of the virus and some of the things that have been implemented in democracies, like Australia saying you can’t have a gathering of more than two people, a similar law from an authoritarian regime can be justified."

 

The difference, Morgenbesser said, was the intent behind the laws.

 

"In the Philippines, Thailand and Cambodia I would argue that there is very clear intent to use these new laws, and the coronavirus, to consolidate more power. I’m not entirely convinced that’s the case in Myanmar."

 

 

SaE

Dugo zadrzavanje u kuci bez izlaganja zracinma sunca, uv zracenju, moze imati negativne posledice po nas imuni sistem. Mi sa uv zracimna dobijamo vitamin D koji je sastavi deo naseg imunog sistema. To znam jer znam kako se raspada imuni sistem kod leukemije.

Inace Srbija nema skenera, ceka se po godinu dana na preglede. PET skeneri se za hitne slucajeve cekaju mesec dana. Moj otac je umro par dana pre odlaska a imao je zakazano mesec dana ranije i to kao hitan slucaj.

Sto se tice ponasanja lekara, kada posle 20ak godina rada izgubis desetine mladih ljudi, poput onkologije, postanes prilicno ravnodusan iako to neces nikada zvanicno priznati.

17 minutes ago, pasha said:

Sto se tice ponasanja lekara, kada posle 20ak godina rada izgubis desetine mladih ljudi, poput onkologije, postanes prilicno ravnodusan iako to neces nikada zvanicno priznati.

Postajanje ravnodušnim je upitno. Neki kažu da se rodimo takvi pa samo vremenom efikasnije kanališemo. Neki od prvog dana ne mogu da se naviknu na određenu količinu stresa. Istina je verovatno negde između.

30 minutes ago, Goranz said:

 

Hmm... ne znam da li si imao prilike da primetiš, aktuelno je nekih trideset godina, ali mi imamo negativan prirodni priraštaj, masovnu emigraciju i nikakav standard za privlačenje stranih doktora. Bolesti neće znati šta im se sprema kada odluče da nas napadnu.

 

Kakve veze imamo "mi" sa ovim o cemu pricam? U pitanju je globalni problem. Deo naseg problema je i to sto nam mnogo kadra odlazi na zapad, a on tamo ne odlazi jer smo mi do jaja strucnjaci u odnosu na nemacke vec zato sto tamo nema dovoljno kadra pa popunjavaju jefitnijim iz zemalja kao sto je Srbija. Kad svuda bude dovoljno kadra smanjice se i profesionalna migracija, svesce se na profesionalne a ne egzistencijalne argumente. Sve su to posledice generalnog pristupa zdravstvu koje se bazira na ekonomskim, pre svega finansijskim cost-benefit analizama. Naravno da nogu treba da povuce tih nekoliko trendseting zemalja "koje to sebi mogu da priuste" o kojima desboy prica, nece sigurno ova inicijativa krenuti iz zemalja poput Srbije, ali i mi mozemo profitirati na vise nacina od onih uobicajenih mrvica koje padnu sa stola mocnih.

 

Ja nisam optimista da ce se sve to desiti, mislim da nece, ali tvrdim da nije nemoguce i da je neophodno. Ljudi se uvek dozovu pameti, samo nekada na vreme a nekada prekasno. A kad je prekasno onda dozivanje vise nema ko da cuje, pa je samim tim bespredmetno.