Coronavirus Covid-19 - opšta tema

[Далибор]

Kina 

+1,290 umrlih

[mire]

šta je ovo?

[ubibobi]

Izgleda da su napravili neku naknadnu reviziju jer je poslednjih x dana bilo od 1 do 5 slučajeva max

Edited April 17, 2020 by ubibobi

[Milosh76]

Vesna Jovićević, doktorka koja živi i radi u Švedskoj, izjavila je gostujući u Danu uživo da je u ovoj zemlji 12.540 zaraženih, a da se broj umrlih od korone popeo na 1.333. Ona ističe da je građane ove zemlje uznemirila vest da se zaraza "uvukla" i u staračke domove, pa tako sada u svakom drugom staračkom domu ima pozitivno potvrđenih na koronu.

"Na današnji dan Švedska ima 12.540 zaraženih, broj umrlih se popeo na 1333, a samo u današnjem danu je zabeleženo 130 osoba koje je umrlo. Taj broj je juče bio 180, prekjuče 114, a u kritičnom stanju nalazi se oko 1.000 osoba. Katastrofalna činjenica je da se je epidemija uvukla u staračke domove, i oko 50 odsto domova ima zaražene od koronavirusa", ističe ona.

 

Napominje da trenutno postoji 1064 respiratora, a prema njenim procenama 20 odsto kapaciteta na intenzivnoj nezi je neiskorišćeno.

"Još uvek se Švedska po tome ne nalazi u kritičnom stanju. Zna se da je na respiratorima oko 530 osoba, od toga 220 u Stokholmu, dok slobodnih mesta na respiratorima ima oko 100. Dakle, kapaciteti nisu još uvek popunjeni, ali ono što uznemirava javnost je da se u slučaju krizne situacije, odnosno da se kapaciteti popune preko 90 odsto, da se ljudi koji su stariji od 80 godina neće stavljati na respiratore, kao i osobe koje su starije od 70 godina, a imaju jednu ili dve hronične bolesti", naglašava Jovićević.

 

Dodaje da se u poslednje dve nedelje kod građana zainteresovanost za koronavirus promenila, pa je nakon katastrofalnih slika u medijima, velika većina stanovništva počela da prati mere i preporuke zaštite od zaraze.

 

"Smrtnost u Švedskoj je 9 procenata, što ukazuje na disbalans u odnosu na broj zaraženih. Švedska radi jako mali broj testova, i do sada je testirano oko 75.000 ljudi. Za razliku od Švedske, u Norveškoj se testiranju rade tri do četiri puta više, a u Danskoj dva puta više", navodi Jovićević.

 

Prema njenim rečima, 22 eminentna stručnjaka su se pobunila zbog ovakvog stava države prema epidemije, i oni su tražili da postupi mnogo rigoroznije. Međutim, do sada još uvek nije ništa promenjeno.

 

http://rs.n1info.com/Svet/a589956/Jovicevic-U-Svedskoj-1333-zrtve-korone-zaraza-usla-u-svaki-drugi-staracki-dom.html

 

 

[Redoran]

7 hours ago, borris_ said:

Bolsonero otpustio ministra zdravlja.

 

Pre neki dan sam pročitao da se sprema to da uradi jer ovaj pokušava da uradi nešto smisleno ali to znači da će biznis^tm da trpi i jbg...

[Ros]

15 hours ago, Lancia said:

respect.

toeto kad imas premijerku koja je doktor prirodnih nauka (fizika) sa radnim iskustvom. a ne nosaca gajbi sa diplomom pravnog fakulteta i sa skoro nimalo radnog iskustva.

jednostavna, andja kapira kako to funkcionise

[Frank Pembleton]

Ona (Merkel) je bila “vukovac” i djak generacije u osnovnoj skoli i gimnaziji, diplomirala je fiziku, doktorirala u oblasti fizicke hemije. Ocigledno ne skodi kad drzavu vodi neko ko zaista razume to sto govori. To se kod nje ne vidi samo u ovoj situacij

Aj ovde jedan neobrazovan i alkoholičar...

Ona je u suštini rekla da su pomeranja i implikacije toliko značajne na malim pomeranjima "na ulazu" da se ne može očekivati da bilo ko kaže nešto sigurno oko budućnosti i mera...

Jel to?



... Shiit has hit the fan...

[borris_]

Clanak u Le Figaro-u o padu GDP-a u Kini ove godine. Slika koja ga ilustruje 

https://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-eco/le-pib-chinois-en-repli-de-6-8-contraction-inedite-20200417

 

Quote

 

En repli de 6,8%, le PIB chinois recule pour la première fois

Il s'agit de son plus mauvais résultat depuis la fin de l'ère maoïste. En termes annuels, la Chine n'a pas connu de contraction de son PIB depuis 1976.

 

 

 

 

 

[burekdzija]

59 minutes ago, Frank Pembleton said:

Aj ovde jedan neobrazovan i alkoholičar...

Ona je u suštini rekla da su pomeranja i implikacije toliko značajne na malim pomeranjima "na ulazu" da se ne može očekivati da bilo ko kaže nešto sigurno oko budućnosti i mera...

Jel to?



... Shiit has hit the fan...
 

 

Ne, u sustini je vrlo precizno objasnila geometrijsku progresiju i trenutno stanje. Trenutno u DE prosecno jedna bolesna osoba zarazi jos jednu. Dakle deset zarazenih zarazi 10 zdravih. Njih deset svaki zarazi jos po jednog, dakle opet 10. To bolnicki sistem moze da podnese. Ako se faktor promeni na 1,1, dakle 10 bolesnih zarazi 11 zdravih, oni zatim zaraze 12,1 zdravih itd -> bolnicki sistem u DE ce kolabrirati kao u Italiji u julu (sa istim brojem kreveta intenzivne nege). To su rezultati simulacije na koju se ona poziva. Ako se faktor promeni na 1,3, dakle 10 ljudi zarazi 13, oni zaraze 17 itd, sistem ce kolabrirati vec u junu. Njena poenta je bila da objasni koliko je tanka linija na kojoj se drzava trenutno nalazi i koliko je bitno da se svi drze mera izolacije i zbog cega ce ih opustati vrlo postepeno.

 

Sad koliko je taj model tacan, to je drugo pitanje.

 

edit: sad kad jos jednom procitam tvoju recenicu, da to je rekla 

Edited April 17, 2020 by burekdzija

[Joe D]

svidja mi se kako su svi iznenadjeni kad vide pismenog i artikulisanog predednika drzave. 

[cedo]

8 minutes ago, Joe D said:

svidja mi se kako su svi iznenadjeni kad vide pismenog i artikulisanog predednika drzave. 

 

 

[vememah]

Harvard Researchers: Social Distancing May Intermittently Last Into 2022

April 15, 2020

A group of researchers at Harvard University’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health warns that the United States may need to practice periodic social distancing through 2022.

Dr. Yonatan Grad, assistant professor of immunology and infectious diseases at Harvard and co-author of the not-yet peer reviewed paper joined WBUR's Morning Edition to discuss their findings.

Interview Highlights

On how the pandemic ends and the impact of social distancing

Grad: "So there are two ways in which the pandemic ends. In one, we eliminate the virus; I think this one is very unlikely because we've already seen extensive global spread of the virus. In the other, it ends because of sufficient population immunity to diminish spread; and that is something we get to either through infection with people then developing immunity or through a vaccine.

"With that as a backdrop, we were interested in asking about the impact of social distancing. We know that we are doing social distancing [in order] to flatten the curve, with the idea that that will reduce the burden on hospitals and help prevent the collapse of our healthcare infrastructure.

"If we are successful in flattening the curve ... then many people will remain susceptible [to infection]. ... and then once we stop social distancing, all of those people who are susceptible will then be a pool in which we might see the rise of COVID-19 and its spreading again. So in the absence of other interventions we're seeing this resurgence in COVID-19, which could lead to restarting social distancing. That, in turn, could lead to a kind of on/off approach that could last awhile until enough of the population has been infected that there's herd immunity or until we have a vaccine.

"I think it's really going to be an issue of how we manage not just flattening the curve, but trying to time our acquisition of herd immunity or waiting until we get a vaccine."

Singapore as an example

Grad: "Singapore has arguably the best public health infrastructure in the world. They were able to control the first few cases of COVID-19 that they saw with excellent case identification and contact tracing. But after they started to open up, they had a resurgence in cases that has now led to a four-week lockdown.

"So again, we're seeing there the introduction of mitigation efforts and then as you ease on those mitigation efforts with a population that's mostly susceptible, we'll see a rise again. What we looked at in this paper was different ways to have a kind of on/off scenario where we would still ... be under the critical care capacity — and the whole point of flattening the curve again is to try to remain under that critical care capacity and maintain the infrastructure of our health care system. So is there a way to titrate our social distancing in such a way that, on and off, we can still remain under that capacity while accruing the population immunity that could get us to herd immunity and the end of the pandemic."

On how to achieve this

Grad: "I think a lot of the details of how we're going to do social distancing will be learned over the coming weeks and months, in part because many of the different places in the country — in the world — have taken different approaches and instituted different types of mitigation efforts. By studying those, we can get a sense of which ones were the most successful in diminishing transmission. And then we can take smarter approaches and really figure out which types of distancing efforts are most effective in diminishing spread and start to use those tailored efforts rather than the broad stringent efforts that we've been using so far."

On the challenges ahead

Grad: "It's challenging economically, socially, politically; and it's one of the reasons why we were doing this work: we were presenting it in part to spur innovation and thinking about ... all of the different possibilities that we can explore in order to to address exactly those kinds of challenges."

https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/04/15/social-distancing-2022-coronavirus-research

 

Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded. To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022. Additional interventions, including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity. Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793/tab-pdf

[gone fishing]

29 minutes ago, Joe D said:

svidja mi se kako su svi iznenadjeni kad vide pismenog i artikulisanog predednika drzave. 

svi su oni pismeni i razumeju problem, ali avaj moraju da ulepšavaju istinu da se tako odrazim jer valja misliti na reizbor

- anđelija nema tih problema uskoro ide u penziju i može sebi da dozvoli iskrenost

[mlatko]

svi su oni pismeni i razumeju problem, ali avaj moraju da ulepšavaju istinu da se tako odrazim jer valja misliti na reizbor
- anđelija nema tih problema uskoro ide u penziju i može sebi da dozvoli iskrenost [emoji3]

ima tu malo i arogantne (in)kompetentnosti na obe strane kao i prepotentne umišljenosti Vladara.

Inviato dal mio Mi 9 Lite utilizzando Tapatalk

[cedo]

cnn Report: Covid-19 patients recovering quickly after getting experimental drug remdesivir

 

 

pozivaju se na Early peek at data on Gilead coronavirus drug suggests patients are responding to treatment

 

A Chicago hospital treating severe Covid-19 patients with Gilead Sciences’ antiviral medicine remdesivir in a closely watched clinical trial is seeing rapid recoveries in fever and respiratory symptoms, with nearly all patients discharged in less than a week, STAT has learned.

Remdesivir was one of the first medicines identified as having the potential to impact SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus that causes Covid-19, in lab tests. The entire world has been waiting for results from Gilead’s clinical trials, and positive results would likely lead to fast approvals by the Food and Drug Administration and other regulatory agencies. If safe and effective, it could become the first approved treatment against the disease.

The University of Chicago Medicine recruited 125 people with Covid-19 into Gilead’s two Phase 3 clinical trials. Of those people, 113 had severe disease. All the patients have been treated with daily infusions of remdesivir. 

 

“The best news is that most of our patients have already been discharged, which is great. We’ve only had two patients perish,” said Kathleen Mullane, the University of Chicago infectious disease specialist overseeing the remdesivir studies for the hospital.

Her comments were made this week during a video discussion about the trial results with other University of Chicago faculty members. The discussion was recorded and STAT obtained a copy of the video.

 

ostatak u spojleru

 

Spoiler

The outcomes offer only a snapshot of remdesivir’s effectiveness. The same trials are being run concurrently at other institutions, and it’s impossible to determine the full study results with any certainty. Still, no other clinical data from the Gilead studies have been released to date, and excitement is high. Last month, President Trump touted the potential for remdesivir — as he has for many still-unproven treatments — and said it “seems to have a very good result.”

In a statement Thursday, Gilead said: “What we can say at this stage is that we look forward to data from ongoing studies becoming available.”

Gilead had said to expect results for its trial involving severe cases in April. Mullane said during her presentation that data for the first 400 patients in the study would be “locked” by Gilead Thursday, meaning that results could come any day.

Mullane, while encouraged by the University of Chicago data, made clear her own hesitancy about drawing too many conclusions.

“It’s always hard,” she said, because the severe trial doesn’t include a placebo group for comparison. “But certainly when we start [the] drug, we see fever curves falling,” she said. “Fever is now not a requirement for people to go on trial, we do see when patients do come in with high fevers, they do [reduce] quite quickly. We have seen people come off ventilators a day after starting therapy. So, in that realm, overall our patients have done very well.”

She added: “Most of our patients are severe and most of them are leaving at six days, so that tells us duration of therapy doesn’t have to be 10 days. We have very few that went out to 10 days, maybe three,” she said.

 

Reached by STAT, Mullane confirmed the authenticity of the footage but declined to comment further.

Asked about the data, Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, described them as “encouraging.”

“The severely hit patients are at such high-risk of fatality. So if it’s true that many of the 113 patients were in this category and were discharged, it’s another positive signal that the drug has efficacy,” he said, adding that it will be important to see more data from randomized controlled studies.

Gilead’s severe Covid-19 study includes 2,400 participants from 152 different clinical trial sites all over the world. Its moderate Covid-19 study includes 1,600 patients in 169 different centers, also all over the world. 

The trial is investigating five- and 10-day treatment courses of remdesivir. The primary goal is a statistical comparison of patient improvement between the two treatment arms. Improvement is measured using a seven-point numerical scale that encompasses death (at worst) and discharge from hospital (best outcome), with various degrees of supplemental oxygen and intubation in between. 

The lack of a control arm in the study could make interpreting the results more challenging. 

A lack of data has led to yo-yoing expectations for the drug. Two studies in China had enrollment suspended partway through because there were not enough patients available. A recent report of patients given the drug under a special program to make it available to those who are very ill generated both excitement and skepticism.

In scientific terms, all the data are anecdotal until the full trial reads out, meaning that they should not be used to draw final conclusions. But some of the anecdotes are dramatic.

Slawomir Michalak, a 57-year-old factory worker from a suburb west of Chicago, was among the participants in the Chicago study. One of his daughters started feeling ill in late March and was later diagnosed with mild Covid-19. Michalak, by contrast, came down with a high fever and reported shortness of breath and severe pain in his back.

“It felt like someone was punching me in the lungs,” he told STAT. 

 

At his wife’s urging, Michalak went to the University of Chicago Medicine hospital on Friday, April 3. His fever had spiked to 104 and he was struggling to breath. At the hospital, he was given supplemental oxygen. He also agreed to participate in Gilead’s severe Covid-19 clinical trial. 

His first infusion of remdesivir was on Saturday, April 4. “My fever dropped almost immediately and I started to feel better,” he said. 

By his second dose on Sunday, Michalak said he was being weaned off oxygen. He received two more daily infusions of remdesivir and recovered enough to be discharged from the hospital on Tuesday, April 7. 

“Remdesivir was a miracle,” he said. 

The world is waiting to find out if it is really so.

 

 

 

Sad nalazim ... 

 

u februaru je i WHO rekla da Remdesivir ima potencijal.

Problem je sto nema kontrolne grupe u ovom eksperimentalnom tretmanu te se rezultati ne mogu usporediti i ne moze se ustvrditi da su ljudi izleceni bas zbog tog leka.

Kompanija koja je razvila lek, Gilead, sponzorira testiranje na 2400 pacijenata sirom sveta na 152 lokacije, ukljucujuci i 1600 pacijenata sa umerenim simptomima.

Edited April 17, 2020 by cedo