Coronavirus Covid-19 - opšta tema

[paculla]

1 hour ago, borris_ said:

Da sada se sjećam. U fr malo drugačije broje. Do nedavno nisu ništa brojali van bolnica. Ove cifre iz domova su svi umrli za koje se sumnja da su imali virus. Znači tu ulaze i oni koji nisu testirani (velika vecina nije testirana). Pomislio sam se da oni ovdje i ne dovode pacijente iz stranačkih domova u bolnice ali pročitah da ih dovode.

 

francuska je pocela da broji i te nepotvdjene posto se mrtvi retko testiraju. tu korekciju ce u nekom trenutku morati da naprave u njujorku za umrle kod kuce i ostale koji nisu testirani postmortem. ti se brojevi skupljaju ali jos se nisu konsolidovali. bice korekcija sigurno. sad umiru ljudi vise i od drugih bolesti u tim zaristima jer izbegavaju bolnice. i oni su zrtve...

 

[Gojko & Stojko]

5 hours ago, urkozamanje said:

 

Tako i ja procitah. Danasnji porast broja mrtvih je vecinom backlog + staracki domovi, osim ako ne lazu. U poslednjih par dana nije bilo znacajnog rasta. Ne znam da li to da nazovem padom, ali brojke su licile na pad do danas. Videcemo kako ce biti sledecih par dana. Moguce da ce zatezati pristup, koliko sam razumeo predlazu se izmene zakona koje bi eliminisale potrebu da parlament usvaja odredbe ako bude potrebe za hitnim merama (taj zakon bi vazio do 30 Juna). U svakom slucaju, brojke nisu sjajne, ali osim ako se ne desi neki drastican skok u sledecih nedelju ili dve, svedske mere ne izgledaju kao potpuni fail, kao sto bi, cini mi se, neki ovde nestrpljivo da zakljuce. Za sada (zvanicno) kapaciteti nisu prepunjeni i koliko sam razumeo ako ovako ostane moci ce da se "izdrzi" neko vreme. 

 

Za kraj, da parafraziram neke od svedskih kolega: "malo nam je dosadilo da nas nazivaju svedskim eksperimentom. Mi smo misljenja da je to sto druge zemlje rade mnogo vise "eksperiment". Zatvoriti kompletno stanovnistvo na neodredjen period i nadati se najboljem a imati veoma malo razumevanja o mogucim posledicama (na zdravlje/psihu, ekonomiju, sistem, itd.) je mozda najveci eksperiment ikada izveden".

 

Svakako igraju uloge odredjene kulturoloske razlike, disciplina i poverenje u svoje institucije, razne specificnosti itd. Moj utisak je da se ljudi u velikom broju pridrzavaju preporuka, i da mozda nema potrebe za totalnim lockdown-om (necu stavljati disclaimer jer se podrazumeva). U svakom slucaju, sto rece Tolaa, meni se cini da Svedjani mnogo manje pene od onoga kako se to vani predstavlja. Mozda su ovce i mozda se blize provaliji (i ja sa njima), ali so far so good. Not great, not terrible

 

 

 

Malo poređenja sa zemljama sa sličnim brojem zaraženih i sličnim stepenom discipline i poverenja u svoje institucije i sličnom stepenu razvoja sa Švedskom (trenutne podatke sam uzeo odavde i odavde):

 

Norveška - 5903 zaraženih, 89 mrtvih (1.5%). Testirano 19000 na milion stanovnika, pozitivnih testova 51 na 1000 obavljenih testova.

Australija - 5919 zaraženih, 48 mrtvih (0.8%). Testirano 12232 na milion stanovnika, pozitivnih testova 19 na 1000 obavljenih testova.

Rusija - 7497 zaraženih, 58 mrtvih (0.77%). Testirano 5418 na milion stanovnika, pozitivnih testova 9.4 na 1000 obavljenih testova.

Izrael - 9006 zaraženih, 60 mrtvih (0.66%). Testirano 12789 na milion stanovnika, pozitivnih testova 75 na 1000 obavljenih testova.

Austrija - 12519 zaraženih, 243 mrtvih (1.9%). Testirano 12944 na milion stanovnika, pozitivnih testova 108 na 1000 obavljenih testova.

 

Švedska - 7857 zaraženih, 611 mrtvih (7.77%). Testirano 6383 na milion stanovnika, pozitivnih testova 132 na 1000 obavljenih testova.

 

Ako se ono "terrible" odnosi na UK, gde je na 55242 zaraženih 6159 mrtvih (11.15%), uz testiranih 3159 na milion stanovnika, i 259 pozitivnih testova na 100 obavljenih testova, onda si možda u pravu.

 

SaE

 

[Gandalf]

(gradonačelnik) de Blasio na MSNBC-u reče da očekuje da će pola Njujorčana pre ili kasnije zakačiti COVID-19.

Edited April 8, 2020 by Gandalf

[NevenMan]

8 hours ago, cedo said:

 

sta je sa obamom ?

To je bilo cinicno jer svaki out kad polazem Republikanskim fasistima kako

je narandzasti klovn nesposoban krene whataboutism o Obami

[NevenMan]

Ako se racuna West Coast time danas smo kratki nekih 78 ljudi za dve hiljade

 

ne verujem da ce pick ici na 10 K kao sto neko predvidi ali oko 4K da

[Gojko & Stojko]

 

Današnji podaci za NSW - dnevni porast na 1.7% (48 novih slučajeva), slično i u Viktoriji a u Kvinslendu su spali na ispod 1% porasta. Što znači da će na saveznom nivou da bude oko 1.7% ili manje kad i ostale manje države prijave podatke. Predsednica vlade NSW je izjavila da će mere ograničavanja kretanja da se razmatraju jednom mesečno, što znači da neće da se menjaju pre 1. maja. Rezultati testova za putnike stigle iz inostranstva smeštene po hotelima u Sidneju pokazuju da je oko trećine njih koji imaju simptome pozitivno, što je daleko više od opšteg proseka za testiranje po istim kriterijumima u NSW (oko 2%). Ja očekujem da se broj zaraženih osetno ppoveća i kad stignu još putnika iz Perua i sa par kruzera kojii su trenutno u Južnoj Americi (samo na jednom koji je bio na Antarktiku a sad je u Montevideu kažu da ima oko 100 zaraženih, nisu rekli koliko ih je odavde, ali nije mali broj).

 

Iz jednog članka iz Heralda od prekjuče (preuzet iz NYT), u kome su opisivali glavne lekare po različitim zemljama (Masima Galija iz Italije, Sotiros Ciodrasa iz Grčke, Kristijana Drostena iz Nemačke, Faućija, Fernanda Simona iz Španije i Nila Fergusona iz UK), komentar gostovanja Grka Ciodrasa na TV:

 

Last month, just as Trump and other leaders openly debated the wisdom of lockdowns because of their devastating economic costs, Tsiodras tackled the question directly.

 

After giving the day's update, he veered off script, looking nervously down at his clasped hands.

 

"An acquaintance wrote to me that we're making too much of a fuss over a bunch of citizens who are elderly and incapacitated by chronic illness," he said. "The miracle of medical science in 2020 is the extension of a high-quality life for these people who are our mothers and our fathers, and grandmothers and grandfathers."

 

His voice then broke as he choked up.

 

"We cannot exist, or have an identity, without them," he said.

 

(link na ceo članak)

Nerds-in-chief: The rising heroes of the coronavirus era

SaE

[Gojko & Stojko]

7 minutes ago, NevenMan said:

To je bilo cinicno jer svaki out kad polazem Republikanskim fasistima kako

je narandzasti klovn nesposoban krene whataboutism o Obami

Ovde sam napisao više o tome, ali ovaj deo ponovo:

 

Onome ko ovde tvrdi da su svi isti, tj. Obama i supružnici Klinton, plus Al Gor, upućujem isto pitanje koje je Bil Klinton pitao svakoga ko ga je ispitivao o dopuštanju da balon nekretnina dovede do GFC 2008.:

 

“When anybody asks me that,” he told me, “I ask them, I look at them and ask them: ‘Do you think this would have happened if we had been there? Look me in the face and say yes.’ I haven’t found any takers yet.”

 

SaE

[Kampokei]

Malo o "stvarnim" ciframa zaraženih. Ja u NYC nisam nikada živeo, i znam ili poznajem negde desetak ljudi tamo. Troje je zaraženo. Možda je slučajnost, ali verovatnije je da je zaraženih mnogo (ko zna koliko puta) više nego što kaže worldometers. 

[nick1986]

Dobro to moze biti i slucajnost. Ja sam ziveo tamo, sestra mi trenutno zivi tamo i znam sigurno barem 100 ljudi odande i niko nije zarazen.

[Ros]

moji sr njemci upadljivo ignoristi odlican opadajuci trend u broju zarazenih po danu i upozoravaju na drugi talas i kako se moraju na to spremiti. cak prete i pojacavanjem mera.

tipicni nemci koji daju jos tri gola u poslednjih 5 minuta utakmcie iako vode 5:0  

 

Edited April 8, 2020 by Ros

[Ravanelli]

kina uvela karantin u još jedan grad

 

Quote

 

Suifenhe City in Heilongjiang restricted the movement of its citizens on Wednesday in a similar fashion to that of Wuhan.

Residents must stay in residential compounds and one person from a family can leave once every three days to buy necessities and must return on the same day, said state-run CCTV.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-toll/chinas-wuhan-lockdown-ends-but-another-begins-as-local-coronavirus-cases-rise-idUSKBN21Q01W

 

Edited April 8, 2020 by Ravanelli

[Gojko & Stojko]

Doctors say management errors worsened coronavirus crisis in Lombardy

Doctors in Lombardy, the Italian region hardest hit by the coronavirus epidemic, have criticised local officials for their handling of the crisis and said the mistakes they made should be a lesson for everyone.

 

A total of 17,127 people have died from the virus in Italy, the most anywhere in the world, with Lombardy accounting for 55 per cent of the tally. The region also accounts for 39 per cent of the country's 135,586 confirmed cases.

 

The particularly large death toll in Lombardy, the wealthiest region in Italy, has raised eyebrows, with local officials suggesting that both the high urban density and considerable elderly population might have played a part.

 

However, a damning letter by senior doctors, including the heads of 11 provincial health authorities within Lombardy, said failures in the region's health system had exacerbated the greatest emergency Italy has faced since World War II.

 

Amongst the failings they highlighted was a lack of protective clothing for medical staff - a regular source of anger since the outbreak emerged on February 21.

 

The medics also bemoaned an "absence of strategies" in tackling the crisis, a lack of good data and limited testing as the virus spread. This "greatly underestimated the number of patients and, to a lesser extent, the number of dead", they wrote.

 

While the neighbouring region of Veneto engaged in widespread testing in a known coronavirus hotspot, Lombardy only tested the seriously ill arriving for treatment in hospital, saying they did not have the capacity for wider checks.

 

"This determined the death of many colleagues, the illness of many of them and the probable and involuntary spread of the contagion, especially in the early stages of the epidemic," said the letter, which was posted on the website of the national federation of doctors, surgeons and orthodontists.

 

The federation says 94 medics have died in the outbreak, many in Lombardy, which is run by the far-right League party.

 

There was no immediate comment from Lombardy officials.

 

 

Sad čitam ovaj izveštaj o pismu italijanskih lekara gde se žale na strategiju borbe protiv pandemije u Lombardiji, i pogledam statistiku testiranja za ovav dva regiona ovde.

 

Veneto drugi na svetu (posle Islanda) po broju testova na milion stanovnika - 31298, 78 detektovanih na 1000 testova.

Lombardija sličan broj testova ukupno, ali dvostruko manje na milion stanovnika, - 15837, 328 detektovanih na 1000 testova.

 

Pratio sam pažljivo šta Tresko i lo zingaro ovde pišu, ali nisam video da pominju baš ovoliku razliku u pristupu ... Zar i u Venetu Lega Nord nije najjača partija?

 

SaE

[Yossarian]

4 hours ago, Gojko & Stojko said:

 

 

 

Last month, just as Trump and other leaders openly debated the wisdom of lockdowns because of their devastating economic costs, Tsiodras tackled the question directly.

 

 

Premijer Rutte je juče, na konfereciji za štampu, dilemu između ekonomije i suzbijanja epidemije nazvao prividnom, lažnom.

 

Ako se prerano popusti sa merama i virus ponovo počne da se širi punom brzinom, to će podjednako teško udariti i zdravlje i ekonomiju.
To su dva lica iste medalje, kaže on.

 

Eto, sabrao dva i dva, rekao ono što su Indy i mnogo drugih još odavno rekli i na ovom forumu.

 

 

Ne možeš imati raspad zdravstvenog sistema i ljudsku tragediju a da ti za to vreme ekonomija veselo raste kao da se ništa ne dešava.

Edited April 8, 2020 by Yossarian

[vememah]

Malo o testiranju antitela u opštoj populaciji kako bi se utvrdilo da li je uspostavljen kolektivni imunitet ili kako ga sad nazivaju "imunitet stada/krda".

The green vice-chancellor Werner Kogler pointed out the result of a test, with which the number of unreported cases of Corona patients should be investigated. According to this, there is only a "relatively low rate of infestation". Of more than 2000 people tested throughout Austria, less than one percent were infected.

Extrapolated to the country, this would currently be around 88,000 people, with 12,008 cases confirmed yesterday. Kogler therefore warned against carelessness: "So there is a danger that everything will start all over again". There is also the fear that everything could still go wrong despite the stage success.

https://www.augsburger-allgemeine.de/politik/Nach-Ostern-Wie-Oesterreich-die-Corona-Beschraenkungen-lockert-id57194341.html

“All ideas of herd immunity have been clearly refuted by this sample,” said Kurz, adding that tens of thousands of deaths have been prevented due to the early restrictions.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/coronavirus/news/austrias-government-presents-covid-19-exit-schedule/

Luxembourg. Blood tests on 1500 citizens in the Grand Duchy are supposed to give first hints about the infestation.

https://www.pfaelzischer-merkur.de/immunitaet-studie-mit-1500-repraesentativen-teilnehmern-in-luxemburg_aid-49970311 (translated by Deepl)

According to Berlin virologist Christian Drosten, it takes about 10 days for antibodies to form after a person is infected with the novel coronavirus.

A blood test can then determine whether or not a patient has developed antibodies, “regardless of whether they had a severe, mild, or completely unnoticed infection,” Drosten said in an NDR podcast last week. 

Even those who have had a completely unnoticed infection will test positive for the antibody.

Knowledge of a past infection is also important to give people with existing immune protection the “green light” to return to work and ease social distancing.

Germany is currently considering so-called "immunity passports" which would allow people to return to a normal life sooner - or even volunteer to help coronavirus patients due to the lower risk that they face.

https://www.thelocal.de/20200405/good-news-experts-say-individuals-probably-initially-immune-after-coronavirus-infection

The [UK] government bought three-and-a-half million antibody tests, but has not yet found one that is reliable enough to use.

...
So far, antibody tests have not proved to be as reliable [as the diagnostic tests].

Health Secretary Matt Hancock said last week that 15 of the most promising antibody tests had been tested, but none was good enough.

Prof John Newton, who is overseeing testing, told The Times that tests bought from China had been able to identify antibodies in patients who had been seriously ill with coronavirus, but didn't pick up the milder cases.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51943612

The sensitivity (hit rate of correctly positive results, note) and specificity (hit rate of correctly negative results, note) of these tests is currently mostly below 90 percent.

"The low specificity is a problem. If you take samples from a hundred healthy people, even with a high specificity of 98 percent, you can expect two false positive results. The people concerned were not sick or confronted with the virus at all," said the laboratory physician. In view of the currently low rate of infestation of the Austrian population with SARS-CoV-2, which is still present, the use of antibody tests as area tests does not seem to be reasonable.

https://science.apa.at/rubrik/medizin_und_biotech/Coronavirus_-_Antikoerpertests_bitte_warten/SCI_20200408_SCI39371351254083410 (translation by Deepl)

[snooker]

@Have_Fun druže ako stigneš samo isprati pa nam javni kako je ovo Carrefour and Glovo will provide shopping for free in less than an hour krenluo, uskoro ovakve stvari kreću i kod nas