Coronavirus Covid-19 - opšta tema

[Caligula]

8 hours ago, ragasto said:

Ima i snimaka iz bolnice u Wuhanu, previše podseća na Variola Veru...ako su prenkovi, odlično su urađeni.

 

Mogu se racionalizovati neki od tih snimaka, tipa visemilionski grad, svi pod maskama, ne mora svako ko lezi na ulici da je pao zbog virusa, 400 mrtvih do sada - nije cudo ako se vide bolnicari koji nose iz zgrade lech u vreci. Jedan okacio snimak gde iz kombija izlaze ljudi pod maskama, jedan noosi Kalasnjikov - posle se ispostavilo da je u pitanju policija.

 

Ali ovo npr. izmice objasnjenju

 

 

... kako god, sjajno tle za dumsdej ljude

 

 

 

[vememah]

 

[Aleksija]

1 hour ago, Caligula said:

 

Mogu se racionalizovati neki od tih snimaka, tipa visemilionski grad, svi pod maskama, ne mora svako ko lezi na ulici da je pao zbog virusa, 400 mrtvih do sada - nije cudo ako se vide bolnicari koji nose iz zgrade lech u vreci. Jedan okacio snimak gde iz kombija izlaze ljudi pod maskama, jedan noosi Kalasnjikov - posle se ispostavilo da je u pitanju policija.

 

Ali ovo npr. izmice objasnjenju

 

 

... kako god, sjajno tle za dumsdej ljude

 

 

 

google translate:
To buy a mask, both defeated and was not affected by the plague, but was knocked down with a fist.
If the injury is serious and requires hospitalization, the consequences can be imagined

[vememah]

 

[Caligula]

42 minutes ago, Aleksija said:

google translate:
To buy a mask, both defeated and was not affected by the plague, but was knocked down with a fist.
If the injury is serious and requires hospitalization, the consequences can be imagined

 

 

 

[vememah]

Quote

 

Several people have asked me (to which I immediately reply, "I am not an expert in any way, shape or form, I'm just bored and obsessed"): what is the actual death rate for this new virus?

The short answer is we don't know, because as of 11.15am this morning, only 4.4% of confirmed infections have come to a measurable conclusion (either recovery or death).

According to our go-to source, Dr. Lilac, here are the (relatively current) counts:

— 14,441 confirmed cases (I assume this means hospitalized, though I am not 100% sure all confirmed cases are being treated as in-patients)
— 331 recoveries
— 304 deaths

(There are also 19,544 suspected but unconfirmed cases, but let's ignore this for now)

OK so, what is the "death rate"?

Some will say:

304 deaths / 14,441 confirmed cases = 2.1%

However, others (including my 12-year-old) say it should be:

304 deaths / [total known outcomes, aka 304 deaths + 331 recoveries, or 635] = 47.8%

The answer is: both of them are wrong, for two reasons (1) ongoing cases and (2) imprecise language.

(1) Ongoing Cases: Until we have more data, there are just too many unresolved cases to make firm conclusions. It will likely be years (not days, weeks or even months) before all the data is sifted through and a true rate is determined.

(2) Imprecise language: "Death rate" does not mean anything until you specifically qualify what it is you are measuring.

"Deaths / confirmed hospitalizations" is a much more accurate term (though it does not roll off the tongue quite as well).

It's also important to note that even this is not likely the "actual" death rate of the virus, because as with all relatively mild viruses, the vast majority of those who contract one will not seek medical treatment nor be tested for the virus. When's the last time you went to the hospital and were admitted as the result of the flu?

Many have reached for data from other countries, and the US "death rate" for seasonal influenza is often being cited for comparison. This too is clouded by people looking at two different data points:

Deaths / confirmed hospitalizations
vs
Deaths / estimated number of infections

The problem here again is that the vast majority of people who contract the flu do not end up going to the hospital at all (let alone get admitted).

So ... what does this all mean? I don't know, but from the tea leaves I've been reading (aka CDC, WHO, and a number of trusted media sources), this is not an extremely deadly virus.

Reasons to be hopeful include the fact that the vast majority of doctors reporting from the front lines are saying most confirmed patients are currently stable rather than in critical or life-threatening condition, which implies the deaths expressed as a percentage of confirmed cases is likely to remain similar.

Also, the (admittedly very early) trend we have been seeing (as we have been obsessed with these numbers pretty much full time for 10 days now) is that the overall deaths/confirmed cases rate is moving ever so slightly downward, as it was around 2.9% when we started tracking these numbers.

https://www.thebeijinger.com/blog/2020/02/02/omg-look-whats-skyrocketing-recoveries

Edited February 2, 2020 by vememah

[vememah]

Quote

Patients can be discharged when the symptoms are alleviated, the body temperature remains at a normal range for at least three days, and the nucleic acid test shows a negative result twice, according to the NHC.

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-02/01/c_138747223.htm

 

Quote

Thailand found good results after using a mix of two antiviral drugs on a Chinese patient who was in a serious condition with the novel coronavirus, according to a health ministry briefing.

 

The patient’s condition significantly improved within 48 hours after the medical team decided to use antiviral drugs originally used for HIV and influenza in his treatment, Kriangsak Attipornwanich, a doctor at the state-owned Rajavithi Hospital who is treating the patient, told reporters at the Public Health Ministry briefing Sunday. The patient’s test result also turned negative, the doctor said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-02/thailand-sees-good-result-from-using-drug-mixture-on-coronavirus

Edited February 2, 2020 by vememah

[vememah]

 

https://endlessmetrics.substack.com/p/five-useful-coronavirus-charts

 

[vememah]

Quote

 

Starting from Sunday, the authorities are putting into quarantine people in Wuhan who have had close contact with confirmed carriers of the virus and people with pneumonia-like symptoms who may be carriers. Under the new rules, many may face supervised quarantine away from their families.

The government had already ordered residents not to leave the city and to stay indoors as much as possible. Now, people who have had close contact with confirmed carriers of the virus “will be sent to centralized isolation and observation points,” according to the new rule.

The regulation did not specify where the affected people will be kept for observation, but it warned that people would have no choice.

“Those who refuse to cooperate will be compelled under the law by assisting public security offices,” the order said. “During isolation, each district will provide free room and board, as well as medical observation and treatment.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-coronavirus&region=TOP_BANNER&context=Menu#link-21650e69

[Spirit]

Pokušavam da zamislim kako bi ona “blaža” varijanta sa stavljanjem gradova u karantin izlgedala kod nas...ali tek ovo, sa bukvalno privodjenjem onih koji su bili u kontaktu sa zaraženima deluje previše čak i za Kinu. Kapiram da pokušavaju da stave situaciju pod kontrolu ali izgleda kao da dekretom žele da reše stvar...

Nego, u vezi poređenja sa SARSom, koliko je relevantna smrtnost ako se ovaj mnogo lakše prenosi i potencijalno može da ubije mnogo više ljudi. Je l se SARS prenosio sa čoveka na čoveka?

Edited February 2, 2020 by Spirit

[vememah]

Quote

China shuts down city of Wenzhou, far from virus epicentre

 

BEIJING (AFP) - The eastern Chinese city of Wenzhou restricted the movement of residents and closed roads on Sunday (Feb 2) in the most drastic steps taken by authorities outside the epicentre of a deadly virus.

 

Only one resident per household is allowed to go out every two days to buy necessities, the authorities said, in the city of nine million, while 46 highway toll stations have been closed.

 

Zhejiang province has the highest number of confirmed cases outside central Hubei province at 661 confirmed infections, with 265 of those in Wenzhou.

 

The city - which is more than 800km away by road from Wuhan, the epicentre - has also cancelled public events and closed public places like swimming pools, cinemas and museums.

 

Wenzhou's metro line and public transport have also been suspended as have inter-province buses.

 

Schools and universities will not resume classes until after March 1, and the authorities said enterprises should not resume work until after Feb 17 - except government institutions and administrative departments, which will start work on Feb 9.

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/china-shuts-down-city-of-wenzhou-far-from-virus-epicentre

Edited February 2, 2020 by vememah

[vememah]

 

 

 

 

 

[vememah]

 

[Ravanelli]

javlajju mi iz režije da kokain leći korona virus. pa se usrećite ako se razbolite

[barrcode]

Juče se nekako neki poznanik vratio iz Šangaja. Šokiran, jer ga na BEG niko nije ni pogledao, ni pitao odakle dolazi, niti uzeo temperaturu.