Coronavirus Covid-19 - opšta tema

[vememah]

4 hours ago, barrcode said:

 

 

[Boycie]

7 hours ago, gone fishing said:

po prvim podacima nečipovane i nepreležale individue sa omikronom imaju tek 11% manje šanse da završe u bolnici nego sa deltom, pa se smatra da je razlog dosadašnje manje hospitalizacije u južnoj africi i uk visoka prokuženost stanovništva, u uk je to čak 95% što će reći da njih ne možemo da uzmemo kao reper za ostatak sveta a posebno nas ali zato amere možemo zbog mnogo niže stope čipovanja

Da to su jasne činjenice, isto tako je potvrđeno da je onikron visokozarazna mutacija. 
 

Međutim imam jednostavno utisak da se na (posebno na) Tviteru i bulevarskih medijima intenzivno prenose tačke kako omikron probija bustere i da se diže tenzija - a time i nanosi šteta prema kampanji za vakcinaciju.
 

Već sam čitao/čuo komentare “zašto sad da se bustujem kada ni to ne pomaže protiv omikrona”, a upravo se ne pominje to kakve efekte ima probijanje omikrona na buster? Još i da dodamo činjenicu da neko ko je inficiran nije automatski i bolestan, vakcinacija i dalje štiti ali isto tako neka mutacija će morati da prođe kroz sve nas na putu da postane endemska - mnogima to očigledno nije jasno.  

[Re-ac-tor]

2 hours ago, Boycie said:

Međutim imam jednostavno utisak da se na (posebno na) Tviteru i bulevarskih medijima intenzivno prenose tačke kako omikron probija bustere i da se diže tenzija - a time i nanosi šteta prema kampanji za vakcinaciju.

Ništa manje ni "zašto panika, obična kijavica". Gde smo u tome mi u Srbiji, pitanje je. Jedino što je sigurno jeste da vlast neće reagovati. Oni su svoj stav prema pandemiji pokazali na onoj prvoj kzn ("najsmešniji virus"). Sve ostale reakcije bile su foliranje.

[vememah]

 

 

 

 

[vememah]

U svom članku u Forbsu o tome kako je omikron mogao da nastane, poznati virolog Vilijam Hezeltajn (Wiki) navodi da je jedan od mogućih načina nastanka varijante s tolikom količinom mutacija testiranje Merkovog/MSD-ovog antivirusnog leka molnupiravir u JAR. Taj lek koji izaziva mutacije pri razmnožavanju virusa i tako ga onesposobljava toliko da na kraju postane nesposoban za širenje je nedavno tesno posle velike rasprave odobren u SAD. Problem je u tome što nedovoljne količine leka (npr. ako pacijent ne uzme sve predviđene doze) ili davanje leka pacijentima kod kojih on nije efikasan iz nekih razloga može dovesti do velikih mutacija virusa koji i dalje ostaje sposoban za širenje. Mutacije koje su uočene kod omikrona uglavnom su baš onog tipa koje izaziva molnupiravir.

 

Quote

Omicron Origins
William A. Haseltine

Spoiler

This is the first in a series on the Omicron variant. Here we describe the origins of Omicron. In following pieces, we will describe the specific mutations in the Omicron Spike protein and larger genome.

The advent of Omicron is ample evidence that we are not yet done with Covid, and Covid is not yet done with us. To look forward and understand where the virus is heading, we need to understand the origin of Omicron. One thing we can be relatively certain of: where this variant came from, more will come. 

Omicron is unlike any other variant currently in circulation. The variant carries 60 (50 nonsynonymous, 8 synonymous, and 2 noncoding) mutations compared to the original Wuhan strain. The three most likely origin are stories are that Omicron emerged from an immunocompromised patient; that it emerged from reverse zoonosis — human to animal transmission followed by animal to human transmission; or that it emerged from treatment of a Covid-19 patient with the mutagenic drug molnupiravir. Here we explore the evidence supporting each hypothesis. 

An immunocompromised patient

Viral variants are well documented to arise in persistently infected immunocompromised Covid-19 patients treated by antiviral drugs and antibodies — the London patient, the Boston patient, Pittsburgh and Italian patients. In the face of our best weaponry of the time, the virus not only prevailed but became ever stronger, learning how to evade our immune defenses.

The variations that evolved and emerged from these patients had a wealth of mutations, not just in the spike protein but throughout the entire genome. In the London patient, researchers found an H69-70 deletion in the N-terminal domain of the spike. The Boston patient showed instances of the E484K spike mutation. The Pittsburgh and Italian patients showed far more deletions in the viral genome than any seen to date and in places that were as yet unexpected — including a wealth of mutations in the spike’s N-terminal domain and in other proteins, including ORF1a and the N protein. Omicron carries some mutations identical and others similar to those found in these patients. Omicron could quite conceivably be the latest in this long line of such variants. 

Reverse Zoonosis

The next hypothesis to consider is that this particular variant evolved from a reverse zoonotic event. Most are now agreed that SARS-CoV-2 originated in bats, a reservoir for a diverse array of coronaviruses. The theory with Omicron is that a human strain of the virus jumped back into animals and then re-emerged from that animal to infect humans again. The likelihood that this may have occurred is entirely plausible, and may indeed be probable. Since its emergence, this particular coronavirus has infected our entire biosphere, from minks and mice to deer and rats, not to mention our own selves. In each of these animal populations, just like in humans, the virus has evolved and adapted to immune pressure, so far surviving in each population to infect and reinfect. As an example, a virus transmitted back to humans from minks contained the troubling new spike protein N501K, also present in Omicron.

A study of the sewage waste in New York City gives us a hint of just how prevalent infection and mutation is across animal species. The New York research, conducted across 14 of the city’s wastewater treatment plants, was originally aimed at exploring human sewage for signs of the virus, but the researchers found four new combinations of viral mutations that had never been seen in humans. These variants were somewhat resistant to human antibodies, which meant that if the variants were to infect humans, they would likely prove harder to neutralize than previously known strains. Marc Johnson, the lead investigator on the project, believes the evidence points not to a human but rather to an animal reservoir for these viruses, most probably rats or possibly dogs. 

A closer look at the mutations in the Omicron variant and those seen in rats suggest there may be a link (see Figure below). Omicron shares numerous identical and non-identical mutations within the N and S proteins with the wastewater viruses, including 13 amino acid changes in the same position or within one amino acid. Some experts believe, due to these similarities, that if Omicron evolved in an animal host, it is likely to be a rodent.

Molnupiravir-induced

The final theory, and perhaps the most troubling one, is that Omicron is a result of our own doing, through the treatment of a Covid-19 patient with the highly mutagenic antiviral drug molnupiravir. Molnupiravir works by introducing errors into the virus’ genetic code. When enough errors are introduced, virus replication slows and the patient clears the virus. 

Under less than ideal conditions — when the full dose of molnupiravir is not taken over the full period of five days, for example — the drug could lead to the creation of highly mutated, but viable, strains of SARS-CoV-2. Even under ideal conditions, patients treated with molnupiravir produced viable virus a few days into their course of treatment. The extent of the mutations which appeared due to molnupiravir are significant. In the FDA analysis of Merck’s clinical trial results, the authors note that patients who received molnupiravir showed more viral variation than those who did not, including amino acid substitutions, deletions or insertions in the spike gene, and amino acid changes were scattered throughout the coding sequence. A total of 72 emergent spike substitutions or changes was detected among 38 molnupiravir-treated patients. 

In South Africa, where Omicron was first detected, molnupiravir has been taken in both ideal and non-ideal conditions. Four 12 different South African locations were used in Merck’s clinical trial of molnupiravir, which began in October 2020. The drug was given to patients at what we now know to be the “optimal” dosage, but also at lower doses to test the drug’s efficacy in smaller amounts. There is by no means a foolproof connection between molnupiravir and Omicron, but molnupiravir is known to induce a preponderance of two types of mutations: cytosine to uridine (C→U) and guanosine to adenosine (G→A). If you look at the difference in the Omicron genome and the original Wuhan variant, these C→U and G→A mutations comprise the majority of differences, with C→U mutations more prevalent to G→A. The same has been observed for molnupiravir-induced mutations in other coronaviruses (see Figure below). Agostini et al. note that exposure to molnupiravir resulted in up to 162 mutations in MHV and 41 mutations in MERS-CoV.

 

 

 

(A) SARS-CoV-2 genome with wastewater variant mutations observed by Johnson et al. noted as black lines;
(B) SARS-CoV-2 Spike and Nucleocapsid proteins with Johnson et al. wastewater variant mutations noted as black lines. Mutations listed are those found in Omicron within one amino acid position of those found in the wastewater variants. Mutations in red are an exact match between the Omicron variant and the wastewater variants;
(C) MHV and (D) MERS-CoV mutations observed by Agostini et al. after exposure to molunpiravir.  AGOSTINI ET AL.

 

There is still much more study to be done before we will know with any degree of certainty which of these three scenarios led to Omicron’s evolution. But we know enough today to make a few assumptions and assertions.

First, until we can say with certainty that molnupiravir did not and could not create a highly infectious and highly mutated variant like Omicron, it should be pulled from the market and any debate over approval of the drug should be paused.

Second, we need to finally acknowledge the broad range of tools known and unknown that this virus has at its disposal, across its viral genome. While Omicron may be bad, future variants could be far worse. The United States and many other countries are still far behind where they should be when it comes to testing and genomic sequencing of viruses in circulation among humans and in other populations. Until we do better on this front — until we understand what the virus has already achieved and how it succeeded — we will never have a full understanding of what more this virus can do and what is ahead in this pandemic. Omicron tells us that now, more than ever, we need to institute a systematic multimodal approach to Covid control, including public health measures, vaccines, therapeutic and prophylactic drugs, and collaborative global engagement.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2021/12/02/omicron-origins/?sh=5e6e25781bc1

 

U članku je pogrešno navedeno da su 4 test lokacije bile u JAR. Zapravo ih je 12 u JAR, a 4 u epicentru omikrona - pokrajini Gauteng.

 

Sve lokacije u JAR na kojima je testiran Merkov/MSD-ov molnupiravir, od toga su 4 u Gautengu označene plavom bojom:

 

 

https://twitter.com/LongDesertTrain/status/1474180416001163264

Edited December 27, 2021 by vememah

[Have_Fun]

Eto..

I posle kao nije veštački virus..

Mislim, možda nije skroz, al' smo ga pomogli lekićima da se lepo razvije i mutira.

Tako to ide kad se ne ispitaju dovoljno medicinski preparati pre no što krenu u upotrebu.

C c c

[vememah]

Polako sa zaključcima, daleko je to od izvesnog i dokazanog.

 

Hezeltajn inače nije jedini koji upozorava na molnupiravir.

 

 

 

 

Pritom je upitno koliko je molnupiravir uopšte efikasan protiv novijih sojeva, protiv delte se nije uopšte pokazao, o čemu svedoče rezultati kasnijeg dela ispitivanja po kojima su čak oni koji su primali molnupiravir češće bili hospitalizovani od onih koji su primali placebo. Ko je pratio, seća se da su preliminarni rezultati bili daleko bolji od završnih.

 

 

MOV = molnupiravir

PBO = placebo

 

https://twitter.com/LongDesertTrain/status/1475137170772013062

Edited December 27, 2021 by vememah

[vememah]

 

 

 

Link na japansku studiju:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1rhCazFav1pokFKmsZI5_oqIeH9ofFckR/view

[vememah]

Quote

Craig Spencer MD MPH, 12h, 10 tweets, 2 min read

I’ve seen a lot of Covid in the ER recently.

With so many people getting infected recently, some folks may wonder what’s the point of getting vaccinated at all?

And is there really any value to a booster dose if I’ve had two Pfizer/Moderna or a shot of J&J?

My observations: 🧵 
Every patient I’ve seen with Covid that’s had a 3rd ‘booster’ dose has had mild symptoms.

By mild I mean mostly sore throat. Lots of sore throat. Also some fatigue, maybe some muscle pain.

No difficulty breathing. No shortness of breath.

All a little uncomfortable, but fine. 
Most patients I’ve seen that had 2 doses of Pfizer/Moderna still had ‘mild’ symptoms, but more than those who had received a third dose.

More fatigued. More fever. More coughing. A little more miserable overall.

But no shortness of breath. No difficulty breathing.

Mostly fine. 
Most patients I’ve seen that had one dose of J&J and had Covid were worse overall. Felt horrible. Fever for a few days (or more).

Weak, tired. Some shortness of breath and cough.

But not one needing hospitalization. Not one needing oxygen.

Not great. But not life-threatening. 
And almost every single patient that I’ve taken care of that needed to be admitted for Covid has been unvaccinated.

Every one with profound shortness of breath. Every one whose oxygen dropped when they walked. Every one needing oxygen to breath regularly. 
The point is you’re gonna hear about a LOT of people getting Covid in the coming days and weeks.

Those that have been vaccinated and got a booster dose will mostly fare well with minimal symptoms.

Those getting two doses might have a few more symptoms, but should still do well. 
Those who got a single J&J similarly may have more symptoms, but have more protection than the unvaccinated (if you got a single dose of J&J, please get another vaccine dose—preferably Pfizer or Moderna—ASAP!)

But as I’ve witnessed in the ER, the greatest burden still falls on… 
The unvaccinated. Those who haven’t gotten a single dose of vaccine.

They’re the most likely to need oxygen. They’re the most likely to have complications. They’re the most likely to get admitted. And the most likely to stay in the hospital for days or longer with severe Covid. 
These are all just observations from my recent shifts in the ER.

But the same has been borne out by local and national data showing that the unvaccinated make up a very disproportionate share of those with severe disease, needing hospitalization, and dying from Covid. 
So no matter your political affiliation, or thoughts on masks, or where you live in this country, as an ER doctor you’d trust with your life if you rolled into my emergency room at 3am, I promise you that you’d rather face the oncoming Omicron wave vaccinated.

Please be safe. ❤

 

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1475325911444729856.html

Edited December 27, 2021 by vememah

[barrcode]

Fantastično važna vest.

[Have_Fun]

Je l' je juče bio prvi dan da je u svetu prešišana brojka od 1M potvrđenih, novozaraženih kovidom?

[cedo]

bilo i dva puta neposredno pre katolickog bozica

ali da ... omikronciciciccic

a tek je poceo

 

Edited December 29, 2021 by cedo

[Have_Fun]

Uf...

Ako je ovakav početak Omikron peaka.. biće veselo

[cedo]

7 minutes ago, Have_Fun said:

Uf...

Ako je ovakav početak Omikron peaka.. biće veselo

 

nada je da bude zaista kratak

ne znam koliko je relevantan grafik rsa sa istog izvora

 

 

 

[cedo]

borise, sta je to u francuskoj, danas preko 200k

jel tu bar deo neprijavljenih od bozicnog vikenda ili sve u zadnja 24 sata ?

 

 

to je vec 4X vise od prijavljivanja u pikovima prethodnih talasa

Edited December 29, 2021 by cedo