23 minutes ago, dragance said:

Pročitao sam tekst u originalu još kada je i izašao. Ali paralele sa CG za vreme Mila su frapantne.

Nisu tolike, biće ipak prije da je do tvoje percepcije. Milo nije imao ćacije. To je više specijalitet Venecuele i Srbije. A ni gerile na granicama sa susjednim zemljama.

Moguće ipak da je neki wishful thinking no da ne duljimo.

Edited January 12Jan 12 by milfisland

https://x.com/Acyn/status/2010525524167417940

Podsetnik, šef Exxona je rekao da je Venecuela u trenutnom stanju apsolutno nepogodna za investiranje (uninvestable):

https://x.com/Acyn/status/2009726761399963889

Edited January 12Jan 12 by vememah

Prevod:

ABC's front page tomorrow:

The DEA is handling a report on the multimillion-dollar businesses of Delcy Rodríguez and her boyfriend: they exceed 500 million in state contracts. The boyfriend's fortune comes from the importation of food in the midst of a humanitarian crisis.

https://x.com/criaturina/status/2010470692953686325

Ceo NYT-ov članak:

https://archive.is/hX5YH

Edited January 12Jan 12 by vememah

George Noble @gnoble79

I JUST CRUNCHED THE NUMBERS ON TRUMP'S VENEZUELA OIL PLAN And there's a huge problem.

Everyone's expecting Venezuela to pump 3M+ barrels per day and crash oil prices.

But here's what nobody's talking about:

The infrastructure is DEAD.

30 years of socialist mismanagement destroyed everything.

PDVSA (Venezuela's state oil company) went from world-class operator to complete disaster.

Refineries are rusting. Pipelines are leaking. Equipment is ancient.

The realistic cost to fix it? $100-180 BILLION over 10-15 years.

Nobody has that kind of money.

Especially not for a country that just stole billions from foreign investors.

The Exxon Problem:

Venezuela owes $60 billion in unpaid arbitration awards.

Exxon, ConocoPhillips, and others got their assets seized in 2007.

They won in international court. Venezuela never paid.

Now Trump's calling oil execs saying "invest in Venezuela."

Their response: "Show us rule of law first."

Translation: We're not putting billions into a country that might nationalize us again.

The Chevron Reality Check: Chevron's the ONLY major still there.

They're operating under special US license.

Best case scenario with their current setup? Add 200-500k barrels per day.

That brings Venezuela from 900k bpd to maybe 1.1-1.5M bpd.

Still 50% below their historical peak.

And that's the OPTIMISTIC scenario.

The Orinoco Problem:

Venezuela's oil is heavy crude from the Orinoco Belt.

It's thick, sulfurous, expensive to extract.

Needs special refineries to process.

At current oil prices, the margins are horrible.

Why would any company invest billions for 8-12% returns when they can get 15-20% in US shale?

They wouldn't.

And here's the part that kills me:

Trump keeps saying he wants $50 oil.

But $50 oil DESTROYS the investment case for Venezuelan production.

You can't spend $180 billion rebuilding infrastructure if oil prices are suppressed.

The economics don't work.

So either:

1. Oil stays at $50 and nobody invests in Venezuela

2. Oil rises to $80+ and Venezuela becomes viable but prices don't crash anyway

Trump can't have both.

So even IF someone could rebuild the infrastructure...

Venezuela's political situation is still a mess.

Maduro's supposedly leaving. But to who? Maria Corina Machado? Another strongman?

Nobody knows what the government will look like in 12 months.

Major oil companies don't invest billions into that level of uncertainty.

They need 10-year stability guarantees.

Venezuela can't provide that.

The US Shale Comparison:

Meanwhile, Trump's threatening to cut oil prices.

US rig count is already falling.

Shale producers are pulling back on new drilling.

If you artificially suppress oil prices, you REDUCE future supply.

Not just in Venezuela. Everywhere. Low prices = less investment = tighter supply later.

It's basic economics.

The Realistic Timeline:

Absolute best case with Chevron's existing operations:

- 18-24 months to add 200-500k bpd

- Total Venezuelan production hits 1.1-1.5M bpd

- Still nowhere near the 3M bpd everyone's expecting

That's not a game-changer for global oil markets.

My Take on Energy Stocks:

I don’t see much downside in oil prices from here (geopolitics providing a floor), and I believe energy stocks remain attractive on the cycle.

But Trump's $50 oil talk is exactly that - talk.

The gap between political promises and physical reality has never been wider.

You can't tweet oil fields into existence.

You can't executive order decades of infrastructure neglect away.

And you definitely can't rebuild a collapsed petro-state while simultaneously crashing the price of its only export.

Energy reality > political promises

Every. Single. Time.

https://x.com/gnoble79/status/2010707700007510046

Edited January 13Jan 13 by vememah

29 minutes ago, vememah said:

It's basic economics

Misaona (hm) imenica za Trampa koji je uspeo da bankrotira vise nego jedan kasino.

5 hours ago, vememah said:

https://x.com/gnoble79/status/2010707700007510046

Ima dosta istine u ovome, ali dosta i BS.

Npr: The realistic cost to fix it? $100-180 BILLION over 10-15 years. Nobody has that kind of money.

Sam Exxon ima kapitalna ulaganja od ~$30B na godisnjem nivou, a Chevron jos $15-ak.

Ono u cemu je u pravu jeste da je potrebna politcka i bezbjednosna stabilnost, te ono sto sam ja u prethodnom postu nazvao "Trumpova kontradikcija": niske cijene nafte i zdrava industrija. Mada, tu objektivno jeste trenutno postignut balans. Dalje, naftna industrija nije samo busenje i prodaja sirove nafte.

Ponavljam se, ali nije samo nafta u pitanju:

Hedge Funds Get Ready for the ‘Donroe Doctrine’ Trade

On 9. 1. 2026. at 21:40, vememah said:

Ako se neko pitao gde je i šta radi Grenel:

https://x.com/FranciscoPoleoR/status/2009689197985034662

BTW, Grenel je na platnom spisku naše Vlade i to formalno. Kroz jednog od JP čovel bukvalno svaki mesec prima "platu" kao savetnik...

2 hours ago, Frank Pembleton said:

BTW, Grenel je na platnom spisku naše Vlade i to formalno. Kroz jednog od JP čovel bukvalno svaki mesec prima "platu" kao savetnik...

Vučiću pedero-eskproprijatoru-krijumčaru.

On 9. 1. 2026. at 14:36, theanswer said:

Meh, udarac pre svega na Trampov ego koji je posle toga truthovao da ovih 5 republikanaca ne treba više nikad da budu izabrani opet što će pre svega da uništi njega samog ako Kolins recimo u Mejnu ne bude reizabrana a najugroženiji je Republikanac ove godine. Sa stanovišta prakse ovo je samo bio motion to advance da se uopšte počne debata na tu temu. Pa bi tek onda trebalo da se nekad glasa pa tek onda treba da bude izglasano (nisam siguran dal im treba 60 glasova ovde ali mislim da treba) pa i da se skupi to ide u HOR, gde i da se stavi na dnevni red i da se izglasa, Tramp neće potpisati, a ne postoji ni blizu većina da se override veto itd itd. A najjače i sve i da postoji i da čitav kongres glasa za, ovaj ludak bi samo iskulirao i čekao bi se Vrhovni sud. Demokratija i vladavina prava pre svega

Inače je izjavio majstor da je on pre svega u duši dobar čovek i da mu zato nije potrebno međunarodno pravo jer on sam sebe ograniči zbog svoje dobrote.

hawley i young flipovali

On 3. 1. 2026. at 13:04, Budja said:

Nisam se dobro izrazio.

"Preuzimaju primat u tehnologiji" bolje izrazava ono sto sam hteo da napisem.

Da se vratim na ovaj tvoj insight.

Evo, sad ga i jedan od eksperata za Kinu iz Bidenove administracije ovdje lijepo uokvirio:

Kuba ima sve predispozicije da bude kao portoriko (deo usa al bez glasanja)

How New Venezuela President Will Save Us from Trump’s Crazy

The Radical Pragmatist versus Rubio’s Vulture

by Greg Palast for Raw Story, Substack and Thom Hartmann January 14, 2026

Acting Venezuelan President, Delcy Rodriguez — a “radical pragmatist.”

The US press is confused. Nothing new there. They are confused about the Acting President of Venezuela, Delcy Rodriguez.

The New York Times says Rodriguez “Went From Revolutionary to Trump’s Orbit”

Oh no, she didn’t.

Rodriguez still attacks Trump as an outlaw kidnapper and imperialist invader. But, at the same time, she says she’s seeking the restoration of diplomatic relations with the US and offers tens of millions of barrels of oil to Trump.

I’ve known Rodriguez for years. Is she a militant Leftist or a moderate pragmatist?

The answer is, “Yes.” I’d call Rodriguez a “radical pragmatist.”

Trump is wise to keep Rodriguez in the Presidential office. Did I just associate “Trump” and “wise”? Yes, but it seems Trump’s wisdom may be accidental. He is reported to be furious at the leader of the Venezuelan opposition, Maria Corina Machado, for accepting the Nobel Peace Prize instead of leaving it to Trump. And the result is that he has vetoed installing her in power.

Notably, oil and finance interests want the “Leftist” Rodriguez to stay — even the CIA wants her to stay. But Sec. of State Marco Rubio and an outlaw US billionaire want her out. Who wins? I’ll handicap the race below.

Trump wants Venezuelan oil — that we already had

Rodriguez and Trump desire the same thing: to send Venezuelan oil to the US. But Donald, we already had Venezuelan oil…until YOU embargoed imports of their crude.

Venezuela’s socialist President Hugo Chavez enjoyed taunting George W. Bush. I remember when Chavez spoke at the UN General Assembly right after Bush left the podium. Chavez began,

“There is a distinct smell of sulphur here.” Bush went after Chavez. It was a bit less subtle than Chavez’ comment. Bush backed the kidnapping of Chavez in 2002. Unlike Trump, Bush’s scheme face-planted and Chavez was returned by his kidnappers, more popular than ever.

But despite the barbs and kidnapping, Bush, with Chavez’ encouragement, kept Venezuelan oil flowing to the US, more than a million barrels a day.

Trump is crowing that, “we’re going to be taking oil” from Venezuela. Mr. President, we were taking Venezuela’s oil until you stopped the flow with an embargo.

Now, it will be nearly impossible, and cost a prohibitive amount, to crank up Venezuela’s production to get back up to the flow quantities we had before Trump’s embargo. Because, when the extraction of super-heavy oil of Venezuela stopped, it congealed into tar and then into asphalt. Refineries and pipes are choked and destroyed, a destruction Trump engineered through blocking Venezuela from paying for equipment to maintain the lines. Now, Trump is trying to bully US oil companies to invest as much as $100 billion to restore the oil infrastructure that Trump himself destroyed.

Trump wants praise for (expensively) rebuilding what he demolished. He’s like an arsonist who wants praise for calling the fire department.

Chavez’ $50/barrel offer

US voters have decided that price inflation is a real bummer. So, Trump has decided, correctly, that unleashing Venezuela’s oil is the way to go. Trump states bluntly that he wants to open Venezuela’s oil spigots to bring down the price of crude to $50 a barrel. Today, crude sells for just under $60/bbl.

But Venezuela already offered to cap the price of its oil at $50/bbl years ago. In one of my interviews with Chavez for BBC Television, he said he would agree to cap oil at $50 if the US would guarantee that oil would not slip below $30/bbl. Venezuela, unlike Saudi Arabia, could not afford another crash to $10 a barrel, as happened in 1998, which bankrupted South American OPEC members. So, Chavez enthusiastically endorsed this idea of a “band” — you give us a bottom and we’ll give you a top — which was first suggested, notably, by industry consultant Henry Kissinger.

Chavez told me he got along well with Kissinger and George Bush Sr., a fellow oil man. And, as Chavez noted, he was “a good chess player,” a pro at realpolitik, a skill he passed to his protégé Rodriguez.

In other words, Trump killed a hundred people in his coup (and thousands may yet die) to get something by force that he could have gotten by contract.

OPEC: “no brainer” or “no brains”?

The first strike against right-wing fave Machado is her avowed desire to sell off Venezuela’s state oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PdVSA, pronounced, Pay-day-VAY-sah). What Machado, a neophyte to petroleum economics, does not understand is that full privatization is a direct threat to the oil majors and OPEC.

I’ve seen this movie before. Leading up to the invasion of Iraq, neo-cons within the Bush Administration wanted to privatize Iraq’s state oil companies, selling the fields to American and European majors who would then, the neo-con plan went, compete to maximize output, crash the price of crude and bring OPEC to its knees. Ari Cohen of the Heritage Foundation told me this scheme was a “no-brainer.”

But then I spoke with Philip Carrol, past President of Royal Dutch Shell USA who said, “Anyone who thinks pulling out of OPEC is a ‘no brainer’ has no brains.” Oil companies are not in the business of getting oil; they are in the business of making money. A crash in the price of crude could indeed end OPEC’s price-setting power and no US oil company wants to see their revenues collapse.

There’s also a legal issue. There is no way for Venezuela to stay in OPEC if its state oil company is sold to US interests because US law makes it a crime to participate in a price-fixing cartel. But our government has carved out a convenient exception for state-owned oil companies allowing Exxon and Chevron and their buds to surf on the high prices set by the OPEC monopoly.

Rodriguez is not only Acting President, she remains the Minister of Petroleum and Hydrocarbons. She has a detailed knowledge of the hard realities of oil production. But, she’s a patriot, too.

She will not allow the theft or seizure of Venezuela’s oil, but she sure as hell wants to sell us oil again. Chevron, which has worked closely with
Rodriguez, couldn’t be happier. Oil companies don’t want to own oil fields. That’s not how the industry operates. They don’t want the real estate; they want profit. They work with OPEC nations through PSA’s, Profit Sharing Agreements. The issue is always the split of the revenues, not ownership; with the state’s share paid as a “royalty” for US tax purposes.

The last thing the oil companies need is Machado, a free-market fanatic, creating a civil war over ownership of fields that the majors want to drill, not own.

And there’s a practical problem. At $50/bbl, no one is going to drill in the Orinoco Basin, where most of the oil is, because it’s just not profitable to try and pull up the sulphurous gunk there. As petroleum engineer Beck would say, “It’s a loser, baby.” That’s why Trump was so frustrated with the oil big wigs who just met with him at the White House. He’s telling them to dump tens of billions into a money pit, rebuilding what Trump destroyed.

Rodriguez well understands the practical limits of control. Chavez was known for hiking oil royalties on Exxon, Chevron and France’s Total but his then-minister for oil told me, quietly, “That if they invest in our country, then we forgive the new royalty.”

Palast’s been tracking Paul “The Vulture” Singer for nearly two decades.

“The Vulture” swoops in

So who would want to privatize PdVSA? The Vulture, that’s who. I’ve been tracking this bird, Paul Elliott Singer, for nearly two decades, first for the BBC. Bloomberg low-balls his net worth at $6.7 billion. (He’s been known as The Vulture since this reporter gave him the name. You could say he’s no fan and tried to get the network to fire me.)

Singer is an international re-po man, buying up the debts of nations busted by wars, famines and cholera. An Obama official called him an “extortionist” after Singer got away with ripping off the US taxpayer for billions.

Singer’s trick is to buy up defaulted debts of desperate nations and distressed companies. Then he’ll sue for ten times, or even a hundred times, what he paid for these debt securities, a brutal business outlawed in several nations. You may remember the signs from Argentine fans at the 2014 World Cup , “IFuera Buitres!” (“Vultures Out!”), referring to a Singer-led re-po attack that brought Argentina to its knees.

In 2018, a Maryland court tentatively approved Singer’s Elliott Management’s purchase of PdVSA’s US subsidiary, CITGO. Singer plans to pay peanuts — just $5.9 billion for Venezuela’s US property which is valued at $11 billion to $18 billion. As you can imagine, Venezuela objects.

The low price for CITGO is based on its devaluation because of the Trump embargo. But since Maduro’s kidnapping, it’s all but certain that the embargo will end. If Singer can close the sale, he could cash in and quickly flip these assets for an easy $6+ billion profit.

But, Rodriguez wants CITGO back. Her nation paid for those refineries and gas stations and it’s hard to see how she’d let Singer waltz off with her peoples’ property.

The judge understands that CITGO’s valuation is changing, probably tripling in value because the US is negotiating the restoration of diplomatic ties. So, the judge asked the US State Department to file a statement with the court on how the change of government in Venezuela changes the commercial value of CITGO. The comment was
due from the State Department on January 8. But the court got nothing — nada, zero.

How come the State Department didn’t respond to the court, leaving Singer’s windfall uncontested? How could Singer get away with this? It should be “who” is letting Singer get away with this?

Singer was the overwhelming Number One donor to the Presidential campaign of Marco Rubio, now our Secretary of State and National Security Advisor. Trump used to attack the “Never-Trump” Singer — until Singer made a million-dollar donation to Trump’s inaugural committee. Singer is also funding a primary against Rep. Thomas Massie, the Republican Congressman who demanded the release of the Epstein files.

Rubio was huffing-and-puffing to get Trump to install Machado whose affection for privatization would have helped Singer to cash in. Whether Singer’s creepy greed, Rubio’s silence, and Machado’s willingness to give up her nation’s crown jewels are related, “¿Quién sabe?” Unlike Pete Hegseth, Rubio doesn’t invite journalists on his
conference calls.

But while the State Department did not respond to the judge, Trump went over Rubio’s head and issued an Executive Order over this past weekend using his power under the Constitution to stop any court action that impedes the Executive Branch’s sole authority to conduct foreign affairs. In a stunning move, Trump barred US oil majors and other creditors from grabbing Venezuela’s cash reserves still held in US banks. Trump’s order is a bit of a mess (no news there), but it is a clear and present danger to The Vulture’s smash and grab of CITGO.

Indeed, Trump told oil companies to stick it. In their confab with Trump, ConocoPhillips bitched that it was owed $12 billion and Trump blamed the company for its loss, “We’re not going to look at what people lost in the past because that was their fault.” (Which it was.)

Trump’s even suggesting he’ll bar ExxonMobil from returning to Venezuela because they are demanding compensation for properties the company abandoned. (When Exxon left Venezuela it was an attempt to pressure Chavez into dropping his royalty demands. That failed. Now, I suspect, Exxon is miffed that Chevron will cash in big-time under Rodriguez. Exxon is like the guy who gives up girlfriend then gets jealous when she cuddles up to a rival.)

“Call of Duty,” the CIA and “good” vultures

A week after the attack on Venezuela, Pope Leo went full Pontiff-for-Peace on Trump, decrying “diplomacy based on force.” Take that, Stephen Miller!

Singer is not normal. Not every financier wants to chew on Venezuela’s corpse. Hans Humes of Greylock Capital Management, whom one of my colleagues calls, “the ‘good’ vulture,” likes to cut deals with foreign governments that won’t bankrupt their nations nor cart off their resources. I know Humes. He fears civil war in Venezuela or “any kind of breakdown of social order” which would make his bonds worthless.

I can tell you that both sides in Venezuela are armed to the teeth. If Rubio succeeds in getting Trump to reverse his position and shove Machado down Venezuelans’ throat, it will be Iraq 2.0. Then no one gets the oil, no debts get paid. The Wall Street Journal quotes Eric Fine, whose firm also owns Venezuelan bonds, “The last thing you want to see is a ‘Call of Duty’ scenario with a bunch of soldiers in the streets.”

Trump has been down this dark alley before. In 2019, he went along with then-Senator Marco Rubio’s hare-brained scheme to declare Juan Guaido as President of Venezuela. Guaido is a white guy who lived in Washington, not Venezuela, and never even ran for President. Trump has made clear he’d been burned with Guaidó, and dismissed him as a loser. Trump has said he thinks of Machado as another Guiado. He said, “She doesn’t have the support within, or the respect within, the country. She’s a very nice woman, but she doesn’t have the respect.” Ouch!

That’s also the position of CIA. In a leaked memo, the Agency said that Rodriguez was more likely to hold the country together during a transition. Also, while she he gave a thundering speech against Trump’s gunboat diplomacy — “Never again will we be slaves, never again will we be a colony of any empire” — she also said, “We are open to energy relationships where all parties benefit, where cooperation is clearly defined in a commercial agreement.”

That had to be music to Trump’s ears, though not Rubio’s. Rodriguez, the 56-year-old Sorbonne-trained lawyer and former diplomat in London, is expert at the Art of the Deal. And, unlike the former bus-driver Maduro, she can make her case convincingly in flawless English, French and erudite Castilian.

Acting President Rodriguez knows, it’s about the oil. Always the oil. She said, “All the lies about ‘drug trafficking’, ‘democracy’, ‘human rights’. They were the excuses. It was always about the oil.” And Minister for Petroleum Rodriguez, the radical pragmatist, knows that is how she will artfully cut her deal.

Because she knows that Venezuelans can’t drink their oil; that her nation needs American majors to buy her nation’s output and for the industry to rebuild their former production lines. Darren Woods, the cranky CEO of ExxonMobil told Trump that Venezuela would be “uninvestible” unless there is political stability. Rodriguez can provide that.

But while the oil boys were talking about the need for stability in Venezuela, there was a sly message directed at Trump. Given our president’s quixotic policies — from tariffs to taxes to military adventures — that the majors don’t want to gamble billions unless there is a stable government in the USA.

Share & Enjoy

Madurova desna ruka je sjajna, kaže Tramp.

https://x.com/clashreport/status/2011540181053292714

https://x.com/halhod/status/2011708174425002119

Prevod:

I held a long and courteous telephone conversation with the President of the United States, Donald Trump, conducted within a framework of mutual respect, in which we addressed a bilateral work agenda for the benefit of our peoples, as well as pending matters between our governments.

https://x.com/delcyrodriguezv/status/2011557862380871974

Francisco Poleo @FranciscoPoleoR

What a choreography. First, Donald Trump speaks directly with Delcy Rodríguez. He calls the conversation long and positive. He talks about oil, minerals, trade, security. He goes out of his way to describe her as “terrific.”

At the same time, the interim regime begins reframing the release of political prisoners as a process allegedly initiated by Maduro himself. Not something demanded from Washington or something conditional but a supposed internal evolution. That framing collapses the moment you line up the timeline. The releases accelerate after U.S. engagement, stall when internal resistance kicks in, and the numbers being advertised don’t survive independent verification.

That’s where the Rodríguez siblings come in. Delcy performs continuity abroad while Jorge Rodríguez polishes the narrative at home. The objective is to obey without appearing to obey, to deliver without admitting pressure, to preserve the fiction that power is still sovereign. It’s awkward.

Then there’s the silence. Trump is asked about Diosdado Cabello, the man everyone inside Venezuela knows controls the coercive apparatus, the courts, the colectivos, the brakes. Trump says he doesn’t know who that is. No insult…or yes, depending on how you see it. Being ignored is a warning.

While this is happening, the releases slow and the families wait in anguish. Human rights groups confirm only dozens, not hundreds like the regime says. The bottleneck is obvious, and so is where it sits. Everyone understands who is pushing back.

Then comes the sequencing that really matters. After the call with Delcy, after the deliberate non-recognition of Diosdado, Trump will sit down this Thursday for lunch with María Corina Machado. Not an Oval Office ceremony and, so far, no photo of endorsement.

That lunch is not about governing tomorrow because María Corina doesn’t control battalions. Everyone knows that. It’s about legitimacy, about the future narrative, about who Washington wants on record when this chapter is written later. You may run the state.

At the same time, Chevron is expected to receive an expanded, effectively full license to operate in Venezuela, possibly within days, and that alone tells you everything about priorities. Energy flows are being normalized faster than political prisoners are being freed.

Put it all together and the picture is clear. Delcy is being treated as the necessary interlocutor, Diosdado is being isolated without confrontation, María Corina is being preserved as legitimacy without leverage, and Chevron is being unlocked. The releases are happening, but only to the extent that internal hardliners allow them, and only as long as Washington keeps pressure calibrated.

https://x.com/FranciscoPoleoR/status/2011655653685665836

Edited January 15Jan 15 by vememah

Prevod:

Diosdado looks uncomfortable, Delcy Rodríguez announces that Venezuela "is opening up to a new political moment" in which "ideological diversity" and "respect for human rights" will prevail.

Trump has her marching 🤔

https://x.com/InesBetancur1/status/2011577636460642816