BrExit?

[MancMellow]

E to nije ni on blesav.

 

Ljudi ovde i dalje misle da je britanska civil service creme de la creme i zavist sveta, verovatno sećajući se romantičnih "Yes Minister" vremena. Da me isprave Mank i Dr ako grešim, ali po svemu što jesam čuo, danas mnogo više liči na ono iz "The Thick of It".

 

Pa, prvo i osnovno, kakvi god da su (a mislim da se, uz manje izuzetke, pad kvaliteta može pratiti skoro 100 godina - i to baš pre svega u spoljnoj politici - čega je naravno i sam Brexit jedan od rezultata) - podeljeni su na minimum tri dela što će hiljadu posto dovesti do figurativnog sudaranja glavama. Prednost, ako ikakve ima, Brtanije u odnosu na EU u ovim nastupajućim pregovorima je što su, presumambly, na britanskoj strani ipak svi na jednoj strani, a ovi imaju da usaglašavaju u najboljem slučaju dve, a u najgorem 27 državnih politika i interesa. 

 

Međutim, ako brit civil servants ne rade u skladu sa jedinstvenom strategijom (koja izgleda da ne postoji) i ako dozvole da unutrašnje razlike dovedu u pitanje "akciono jedinstvo", ta jedina i veoma korisna prednost će nestati. Jedna od "admirable" stvari u vezi britanske demokratije i politike je što je tako posvađana i nemilosrdna jedna prema drugima, ali mislim da to u slučaju Brexita može skupo da ih košta. Ali, ipak, budimo milostivi, stvar, zadatak je toliko težak i komplikovan da je pitanje da diriguje veće sastavljeno od Čerčila, Kurzona, Palmerstona i Dizraelija da li bi uspelo da "make success of it". Mora sreća da ih pogleda u smislu da ostatak EU zabrlja. Ako ostatak EU svoj deo uradi "impeccably" nije bitno ko je u UK, nema šanse da se prođe bez teških gubitaka. Ali to sa EU ostaje debelo da se vidi. 

Edited November 15, 2016 by MancMellow

[Prospero]

tupson

 

It is a “myth,” “nonsense” and “bollocks” to claim that freedom of movement is one of the founding principles of the European Union, British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson said in an interview published Tuesday.

Johnson told the Czech daily Hospodářské noviny that freedom of movement is not enshrined in the EU Treaties. “Everybody now has it in their head that every human being has some fundamental God-given right to move wherever they want. It’s not true. That was never the case. That was never a founding principle of the EU. Total myth,” he said.

[...]


http://www.politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-free-movement-as-a-fundamental-freedom-bollocks-brexit-trump/

 

Edited November 15, 2016 by Prospero

[Prospero]

ceo memo

 

THE MEMO

Brexit update as of 7th November 2016
This note summarises the current state of play on Brexit issues in Whitehall in the critical inter-related domains of politics, government and industry.

THE POLITICAL DOMAIN
The Prime Minister’s over-riding objective has been to keep her party from repeating its history of splitting 4 times in the past 200 years over global trade — each time being out of power for 15-30 years. The public stance of Government is orientated primarily to its own supporters, with industry in particular barely being on the radarscreen — yet.
The Government’s appeal to the Supreme Court has to be seen in this light — it is about avoiding any more public debate than necessary because it will expose splits within the predominantly “remain” Conservative MPs and intensify the pressure from predominantly “leave” constituency parties. A General Election is only a last resort for 3 reasons — boundary changes (that favour the Conservatives) will not be effective until 2019; the Fixed Term Parliaments Act obstructs Prime Ministerial freedom to call an election at will; and it may suit major decision makers to slowly shift away from more difficult aspects of Brexit on the grounds that Parliament has forced them to do so.
The divisions within the Cabinet are between the 3 Brexiteers on one side and Philip Hammond/Greg Clark on the other side. The Prime Minister is rapidly acquiring the reputation of drawing in decisions and details to settle matters herself — which is unlikely to be sustainable. Overall, it appears best to judge who is winning the debate by assuming that the noisiest individuals have lost the intra-Government debate and are stirring up external supporters.
The Supreme Court appears likely to delay its ruling until early January and, assuming it sustains the High Court, a short enabling bill will then be submitted to Parliament, permitting the Government to invoke Article 50 in March as planned. The Government will probably be able to face down wrecking amendments, but the debate in Parliament will certainly shift expectations of what will be achieved/sellable in Brexit negotiations. Remain supporters can be expected to reserve their fire until winners and losers emerge from negotiation and the political atmosphere allows more sophisticated assessment of choices.

THE GOVERNMENT DOMAIN
Individual Departments have been busily developing their projects to implement Brexit, resulting in well over 500 projects, which are beyond the capacity and capability of Government to execute quickly. One Department estimates that it needs a 40% increase in staff to cope with its Brexit projects. In other words, every Department has developed a “bottom up” plan of what the impact of Brexit could be — and its plan to cope with the “worst case”. Although necessary, this falls considerably short of having a “Government plan for Brexit” because it has no prioritisation and no link to the overall negotiation strategy.
However, it may be 6 months before there is a view on priorities/negotiation strategy as the political situation in the UK and the EU evolves. Despite extended debate among Permanent Secretaries, no common strategy has emerged, in part because the potential scope and negotiating positions have to be curtailed before realistic planning can happen, in part because of the divisions within the Cabinet. It is likely that the senior ranks in the Civil Service will feel compelled to present potential high level plan(s) to avoid further drift.
Departments are struggling to come up to speed on the potential Brexit effects on industry. This is due to starting from a relatively low base of insight and also due to fragmentation — Treasury “owning” financial services, DH-BEIS both covering life sciences, DCMS for telecoms, BEIS most other industries, DIT building parallel capability focussed on trade etc.
Capability-building is making slow progress, partly through deliberate control by the Cabinet Office and partly from Treasury’s opening negotiating position that Departments will meet Brexit costs from existing settlements — although no one is treating that position as sustainable. Expectations of increased headcount are in the 10-30,000 range. Initiatives to build capability are getting off the ground — the Diplomatic Academy is providing trade training programmes, Cabinet Office is discussing system-wide capability programmes.
The Autumn Statement on 23rd November is expected to provide some headlines in terms of infrastructure investment, making the UK fit for growth and the inclusive economy. It will not provide resources for the Civil Service to grow its Brexit capacity and capability. In fact, we are more likely to see a further squeeze on Departmental operating costs to compensate for new spending.

THE INDUSTRY DOMAIN
Government expects lobbying on 3 levels to continue:
1. Company-specific decisions — the Nissan investment decision is a prime example. These are viewed as major opportunities/threats for Government. Other major players can be expected to, similar to Nissan, point a gun at the Government’s head.
2. Industry insights — the major challenge for industry and Government are “the unknown unknowns” where industry has to educate Government fast on the most important negotiating issues - e.g., they think they know about talent, but know they know little about data.
3. Overall business concerns — the province of CBI and largely dealt with as a PR issue.
Industry has 2 unpleasant realisations — first, that the Government’s priority remains its political survival, not the economy — second, that there will be no clear economic-Brexit strategy any time soon because it is being developed on a case-by-case basis as specific decisions are forced on Government.

 
 
komentar na deo o potrebnih 10-30k novih ćata:
 
 
 Robert Harris‏@Robert___Harris 15 сатипре 15 сати

Times: UK may need to hire 30,000 extra civil servants to achieve Brexit. The European Commission employs 24,000pic.twitter.com/Ujmohr5CI9

 

 

 

23.31 - 14. нов 2016.

​

Edited November 15, 2016 by Prospero

[Razzmatazz]

 

Carlo Calenda, an Italian economics minister, said it was insulting that Johnson had told him during a recent meeting that Italy would grant Britain access to the EU’s single market “because you don’t want to lose prosecco exports”.

“He basically said: ‘I don’t want free movement of people but I want the single market,’” he told Bloomberg. “I said: ‘No way.’ He said: ‘You’ll sell less prosecco.’ I said: ‘OK, you’ll sell less fish and chips, but I’ll sell less prosecco to one country and you’ll sell less to 27 countries.’ Putting things on this level is a bit insulting.”

 

Because we're not at home with Mr Cockup. 

[Prospero]

Prošek rat  

[Marvin (Paranoid Android)]

Daj da javimo onom tipu koji pravi epic rap battles of history da napravi jednu Dačić vs Джонсон.

[Dr Arslanagić]

Brexit: Deloitte says it will move work out of UK if Theresa May restricts immigration

 

 

World's biggest accountancy firm says non-EU migrants are crucial for its business, having already accused the Government of having 'no plan' for EU negotiations

[Dr Arslanagić]

Prošek rat

 

Baš juče Telegraph objavio članak kako globalno zagrevanje čuda čini za britansku vinsku proizvodnju. 

[Tribun_Populi]

Lovely bittersweetnes.

Edited November 17, 2016 by Tribun_Populi

[Marvin (Paranoid Android)]

Former work and pensions secretary, Iain Duncan Smith said: “This non-commissioned report is utterly bogus, gleaned from newspaper cuttings. The Government doesn’t need any more civil servants. What a load of old rubbish.”

 

[MancMellow]

Because we're not at home with Mr Cockup. 

 

pfff, englezi su prilicno dobri pregovaraci ALI

 

pravilo br. 1: ne mozes zajebati italijana

pravilo br..2: ako ti se ucini da si zajebao italijana seti se pravila br.. 1

[Razzmatazz]

Pa za ovo na šta je BoJo igrao ne treba biti Englez da bi se dobio šlif za pregovaranje, nego IQ veći od 92.

[hazard]

pfff, englezi su prilicno dobri pregovaraci ALI

 

pravilo br. 1: ne mozes zajebati italijana

pravilo br..2: ako ti se ucini da si zajebao italijana seti se pravila br.. 1

 

ili drugim recima latini su stare varalice :D

[Prospero]

boom!
 

Wolfgang Schäuble sets out tough line on Brexit

German minister warns UK faces stiff rules on tax breaks and prolonged EU payments


Germany’s finance minister has set out a tough line on Brexit talks on issues that range from tax breaks to exit costs, dashing British hopes that Berlin would soften the EU’s stance on the UK’s departure from the bloc.

Theresa May’s government has been looking to Germany, a net exporter to the UK, to temper French demands that Britain “pay a price” for its decision to leave.

But Wolfgang Schäuble told the Financial Times that, even after Brexit, the UK would be bound by tax rules that would restrict it from granting incentives to keep investors in the country — and would also face EU budget bills for more than a decade.

“Until the UK’s exit is complete, Britain will certainly have to fulfil its commitments,” he said. “Possibly there will be some commitments that last beyond the exit … even, in part, to 2030 … Also we cannot grant any generous rebates.”

The finance minister also insisted that Britain must stick to international rules on investment incentives, as with Nissan Motor, the carmaker, which recently won government assurances when it agreed to build new models in the UK.

“These rules apply to all whether EU members or not,” he said.

He highlighted agreements reached by the G20 industrialised countries to limit tax avoidance — an initiative, led by Germany and the UK, that would reduce Britain’s ability to grant tax breaks to companies, even after leaving the bloc.

EU competition regulators have already asked Britain to explain what sort of commitments were made to Nissan.
“The UK is still a member of the EU and it is a country which has always upheld the valid regulations, valid laws and valid treaties,” said Mr Schäuble.

He added that the UK should be prepared for financial services to move to continental centres such as Frankfurt, and backed continental calls for London to lose its lucrative euro-clearing business.

Euro-clearing must stay in the union because “the euro is the EU’s common currency even when not all member states of the EU have this currency”, he said, signalling the political importance of the issue.

Mr Schäuble’s warning that Britain faces EU budget bills for years after leaving the bloc also echoes EU proposals disclosed in the FT this week for the UK to be presented with an exit bill of up to €40bn-$60bn.

Nor could there be special treatment for the UK over migration, he said, describing freedom of movement as a core element of the EU’s internal market. “There is no à la carte menu. There is only the whole menu or none,” he said, arguing that restrictions of EU immigration would end financial services companies’ free access to EU markets under so-called passporting rules.

“Without membership of the internal market, without acceptance of the four basic freedoms of the internal market there can, of course, be no passporting, no free access for financial products or for financial actors,” he said.

The possible costs to the UK financial sector were highlighted this week by a private EY report circulated among British officials, which estimated London could lose 83,000 jobs over the next seven years if euro-clearing moved to the continent.

Mr Schäuble said “very many requests” were coming from London-based companies interested in relocating parts of their business to Frankfurt, Germany’s financial hub.

He added that the German government was “concerned” about Donald Trump’s election as US president and was “now trying to make the best of the result”.
“I believe that the US is still indispensable for a world that wants to be at peace,” he said, while calling the US election result “a wake-up call” for the EU to do more for its own security and defence.

“The Americans have always been right when they have asked for a bit more sharing of responsibilities from Europe,” said Mr Schäuble.

 

[Dr Arslanagić]

Do kurca, taman se ponadah da ću pogledati ovaj hit sad u decembru u Londonu... Ništa, biće ipak Les Misérables.

 

 

http://www.brexitthemusical.eu/