BrExit?

[Prospero]

At a subdued and “sad” dinner with the other 27-leaders, Cameron confirmed and got agreement that his successor would “trigger without delay” Article 50 – the legal mechanism by which Britain leaves the EU after 43 years.

 

EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker later stressed that should come “the next day” after a new Prime Minister takes office in Downing Street.

President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi had earlier briefed the dinner that growth across the euro area would be less by 0.3%-0.5% over the next three years, due to Brexit.

 

It’s a Nein

 

German Chancellor Angela Merkel seemed to crush any lingering hopes for the 48% of the British who voted to stay in the EU, saying “I don’t think it’s possible. The referendum is there as reality.”

“I don’t see a possibility to go back.”

She added: “It was a sad occasion, it was unfortunate, but it’s reality. We’re politicians. We’re not here to dwell very long on sadness. We made our regret clear but we have to accept the reality.”

 

http://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/cameron-gets-okay-for-successor-to-trigger-brexit-at-brussels-last-supper/

 

[MancMellow]

ma to sto su se oni usmeno dogovorli sa njim ne obavezuje nista ni njih ni novog PM-a kad zasedne. Bice to dugi i teski pregovori jer ce se poklopiti sa izborima u GER i FRA

[Prospero]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVR1epdvqbI

 

 

 

"Legally you're in, but politically you're out of the club... You were not only in the club, you were in a committee. But, you didn't like the rules, you thought that the membership fees were too high, you thought that some of the new members were a bit common :D and you've decided to leave. Now we will have to deal with you as a member of the public."

Edited June 29, 2016 by Prospero

[Gandalf]

Edited June 29, 2016 by Gandalf

[Tribun_Populi]

Ovi će se poprilično truditi da rasture uniju, na svaki mogući način.

[MancMellow]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVR1epdvqbI

 

 

 

"Legally you're in, but politically you're out of the club... You were not only in the club, you were in a committee. But, you didn't like the rules, you thought that the membership fees were too high, you thought that some of the new members were a bit common :D and you've decided to leave. Now we will have to deal with you as a member of the public."

 

na stranu svi ostali aspekti (demokratija, ekonomija, identitet, itd), ovo je 1 velika samarcina celoj centralnoj i istocnoj evropi od strane Britanije i to ne od drzave same, nego sto je jos gore, direktno od stanovnistva, kao i ovi antipoljski incidenti u UK. U jednom danu su snizili svoj uticaj na tom prostoru za 5 nivoa. Zato je Sikorski toliko i ispizdjen. Poljaci ce se drzati NATO-a i Amerike noktima i zubima jer im je u EU otisao glavni saveznik ciji im je sam narod rekao da ih iskreno, i to u najboljem slucaju, cisto zabole za Poljake. Od toga nista preterano dobro ne moze da ispadne. 

[Kampokei]

Kerry rekao da on licno ne misli da je odustajanje od Brexita nemoguce.

[MancMellow]

Ovi će se poprilično truditi da rasture uniju, na svaki mogući način.

 

Nije stvar cak ni truda (mada ima onih koji bi direktno to zeleli), cak i da se ne trude, cak i da na celo UK dodje neki zaista i potpuno iskreni Evrofil, oni su sad "Other". To jednostavno politicke procese stavlja u jednu vrste dinamike koja je prosto neizbezna. 

[MancMellow]

Kerry rekao da on licno ne misli da je odustajanje od Brexita nemoguce.

 

Pa ono, mozda je pocelo da im se sleze koliko i kakvo sranje je napravljeno i u fazonu su - fuck this, fuck that, fuck you, fuck off :D

Edited June 29, 2016 by MancMellow

[Bojan]

Izgleda bilo zanimljivo juče u Evropskom parlamentu

 

 

 

 

Farage: "I know virtually none of you have ever done a proper job in your lives."

 

Juncker: "Why are you still here?"

 

The former Belgian prime minister Guy Verhofstadt said: “I am shocked, Mr Farage. You are presenting yourself as the defender of the little man, while you have an offshore financial construction.” 

 

As Farage laughed, Verhofstadt added: “OK, let’s be positive, we are getting rid of the biggest waste of EU budget: your salary.”

 

In almost poetic tones, Le Pen exclaimed: “Dear colleagues, why are you getting het up? Look how beautiful history is! The UK is leaving!” She said Brexit was “a sign of liberty and freedom”, “a cry of love” even, and signified “the great emancipation” of the British people.

 

Guardian

 

 

 

Ovde Farage, a zatim i Le Pen

 

 

Mada, razgovore oko izlaska će ispred EU voditi Donald Tusk, pre nego Junker, s obzirom da je on juče bio sa Merkelovom, Olandom i Rencijem.

[Tribun_Populi]

To jednostavno politicke procese stavlja u jednu vrste dinamike koja je prosto neizbezna.

Upravo to sam i imao na umu. Perfidni Albion je Perfidni Albion, hladna i proračunata nacija kojoj je ujedinjena Evropa protivnik po mnogo parametra: političkom, ekonomskom, vojnom itd. Kad tome pridodaš i 500godišnju tradiciju politike sprečavanja ujedinjenja Evrope, dobiješ, pa to što dobiješ. I ja oko toga, čitajući svo ovo vreme stavove i narativ političara u UK uopšte nemam nimalo dileme.

 

Tako da uskoro kreće soft powerplay, odmah posle njihove konsolidacije. I to igra na sve ili ništa. Evropa je slabašna i lagano rasturljiva™, ako hoće da pretekne, moraće, jbg...

 

...da rasturi UK.

[radnik]

ne znam je li bilo ovo:

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-wont-really-happen-second-referendum-markets-value-housing-pound-a7106996.html

 

 

EVEN THOUGH WE VOTED FOR IT, A BREXIT WON'T HAPPEN IN THE END. HERE'S WHY

I voted Leave – but, looking at the reasons, it's undeniable that we'll stay in the European Union after all

Even for an optimistic Brexiteer like me, the last few days have been difficult. Many people who voted out are already feeling a bit betrayed as certain fundamental truths sink in. The “uncertainty” is already affecting the real economy as we see. Project Fear probably understated some of the dangers, though overstated others absurdly, the latter as former Governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King has said (a calm voice in these frenetic times).

Before long this uncertainty will feed through even more concretely from the slightly abstract world of financial markets and exchange rates through to jobs, savings, and, above all, the value of people’s homes, which is where most people’s wealth is stored (especially some of the less well-off voters who opted for “Leave”). This is really why I suspect Brexit won’t, in the end, come to pass – because most voters can’t afford it in the short run, whatever the longer term advantages. Call it blackmail by the financiers or the Establishment if you wish, but it is a fairly nasty ransom note all the same. Here are the reasons, in some sort of logical order, why Brexit won’t happen:

Regret is high and numbers were low

The margin for Leave was pretty small, in reality, and so the mandate is weak. Most countries have a constitutional convention that big changes have to command a two-thirds vote in a legislature or referendum, and this was nowhere near it. In the early 1970s, when Ted Heath took us in (without a referendum), the phrase used by him was that he needed the “full-hearted consent” of the British people to take such a momentous decision. It probably wasn’t there in 1971-72, but it certainly isn’t there now. Some Brexiteers are suffering profound regret, and we may as well acknowledge that, such is the gravity of the situation. They do not want to wait the many years, perhaps decades it will take for Brexit to be the better option for them and their families (ironically it is the young who have time on their side to enjoy the post-Brexit future, but I won’t press that point).

Voters don't actually get to decide

We live in a democracy where Parliament is sovereign. That means that only Parliament can give effect to the will of the people. David Lammy's idea that Parliament can just ignore the referendum is going too far, but it is true that Parliament's job is to decide what to do next. So what shall we do next?

The EU has too much to lose

Whoever takes over from David Cameron will, as recent events show, be under intense pressure not to press the exit button and activate “Article 50”, which puts us more or less on the escalator out. He or she may well be tempted to go back to Brussels and ask for a better deal within the EU.

If they had any sense – and Angela Merkel does – the European leaders will see the danger of Brexit contagion and offer the British, and the wider Eurosceptic movement across Europe, something that recognises people’s concerns, meaning probably some brakes on migration. This, on top of what David Cameron managed to secure, could form the basis for a second referendum choice – Brexit or the “New Deal”. Of course the EU’s establishment should have given that to Mr Cameron in the first place, but, as they say, we are where we are. I notice this is basically the suggestion now being put about by Jeremy Hunt; it will gain a lot of support outside Ukip, I suspect.

Hardly any Tories want to leave - including Boris Johnson

It will be highly attractive for whoever does succeed David Cameron to be seen as the leader who at last settled the European issue to Britain's satisfaction for ever. Theresa May, after all, is a Remainer, albeit reluctant, so we see where her instincts lie. Boris Johnson, let us recall, also first advocated voting Leave as a way for Britain to go back and get a better deal in his earliest intervention in the campaign, just after he declared for Leave. I quote, then, from an article Boris wrote, published on 16 March (I’ve retained the stuff about the economy, which is also of interest: “There is only one way to get the change we need, and that is to vote to go, because all EU history shows that they only really listen to a population when it says No… It is time to seek a new relationship, in which we manage to extricate ourselves from most of the supranational elements.

“The people who run the various EU institutions – whom we like to ply with crass abuse – are, in my experience, principled and thoughtful officials… They just have a different view of the way Europe should be constructed. I would hope they would see a vote to leave as a challenge, not just to strike a new and harmonious relationship with Britain (in which those benefits could be retained) but to recover some of the competitiveness that the continent has lost in the last decades.”

Some of Boris’ Tory colleagues think he didn’t believe a word of what he was saying in the campaign, and that the whole thing was just a vehicle for his ambition. Hence, perhaps, his confused flip-flopping on whether he wants us in the Single Market. If so, then one can see him executing an almighty U-turn in about six months’ time and recommending a Remain vote with him leading the opposite campaign to the one just gone. He has the shamelessness, ambition and dexterity to do just that, in true Churchillian style.

A general election will change everything

If there is a general election and Labour get in (strange as it may be) maybe with SNP and Lib Dem support, they will not want to apply to leave the EU formally without going back to Brussels for a deal. Indeed they would be quite desperate to do so and would claim the general election result gave them a mandate for that. We’d almost certainly have a second referendum then, and probably a narrow Remain win.

We all know that if there was a referendum on holding a second referendum, the people would be in favour of having another vote. It is certainly the general view in Parliament, and of course we now have the Scottish and Irish dimensions to the problem now crystallising, as well as economic realities. People want to think again, and the politicians have a duty to let them.

[CPP]

The EU has too much to lose

 

Whoever takes over from David Cameron will, as recent events show, be under intense pressure not to press the exit button and activate “Article 50”, which puts us more or less on the escalator out. He or she may well be tempted to go back to Brussels and ask for a better deal within the EU.

 

If they had any sense – and Angela Merkel does – the European leaders will see the danger of Brexit contagion and offer the British, and the wider Eurosceptic movement across Europe, something that recognises people’s concerns, meaning probably some brakes on migration. This, on top of what David Cameron managed to secure, could form the basis for a second referendum choice – Brexit or the “New Deal”. Of course the EU’s establishment should have given that to Mr Cameron in the first place, but, as they say, we are where we are. I notice this is basically the suggestion now being put about by Jeremy Hunt; it will gain a lot of support outside Ukip, I suspect.

 

Ovo ko dnevnik RTB 1989. 

[MancMellow]

Upravo to sam i imao na umu. Perfidni Albion je Perfidni Albion, hladna i proračunata nacija kojoj je ujedinjena Evropa protivnik po mnogo parametra: političkom, ekonomskom, vojnom itd. 

 

 

Da, bas su ispali hladni i proracunati... Tako razmislja samo mala manjina. Laburisti, LibDems, uopste tako ne razmisljaju, kao i dobar deo Torijevaca. Samo ako ne ostanu u zajednickom trzistu pocece da se znacajnije siri takav rezon. Ono sto ja ne vidim kako ce ostati u EEA bez dopustanja slobode protoka radne snage, a da ne izazovu veliku unutrasnju nestabilnos, a ne vidim ni kako ce odbiti a da ne izazovu raspad zemlje. A ako im EU ucini da imaju povlascen status, onda niko ne mora ni da se cima oko rasturanja EU.

[Tribun_Populi]

Pazi, ukoliko istraju u nameri, a mislim da hoće i jedni i drugi jer je sa svih strana desnica dominantna, plus u ostatku EU levica federalistička, ja ne vidim drugi scenario.

 

Čak mislim i da će kod Britanaca, ma kakav dil dobili, to svakako biti dominantno stanovište ko god došao. A da će nijanse odlučivati da li će se s tim ići jako ili slabije.