Islamska drzava

[Gandalf]

Dobro ali da li misliš da bi kroz, lupam, 70 ili 170 godina mirnodopskog perioda u Iranu došlo do demokratizacije zemlje na nivou Danske?

 

Mislim o gej pravima recimo. 

naravno. Iran je danas znatno bolji nego pre 10 godina, a pre deset godina je bilo znatno bolje nego pre 20.

 

vreme, evolucija.

[namenski]

jedini "sekularizam" koji je ponudjen je bez ikakvog pluralizma. jer su sve varijante (kemalisticki, baatisticki, naserovski) predvidjale potpuno potcinjavanje religije drzavi, vlastima, i velikom vodji. najradikalnija je bila kemalisticka verzija koja je u sustini bila tek jedna od bastardizacija jakobinskog ludila (pozitivisticki magarci su imali dosta uticaja u to doba, ne samo u Turskoj i ne samo tada). 

 

zato je i puklo, nije ni moglo da profunkcionise. delovalo je kao da funkcionise samo god je iluzija odrzavana prisilom.

 

ne radi se samo o tome da je taj "sekularizam" odrzavan iskljucivo tiranijom, vec o tome da pristup nije mogao da se odrzi. koliko god nepodobnih i amodernih da su zatvarali i streljali.

Preostar si prema sekularizaciji pojedinih islamskih zemalja: to je bio model koji je fukcionisao, negde bolje, negde gore i koji je potonuo u opstoj plimi konzervativizma koji je bio reakcija na neke zapadne uticaje i postupke, ali je istovremeno bio i nacin na koji se taj deo sveta uklopio u opste, globalno takoreci konzerviranje, da ne kazem skretanje u desno, odvesce nas u jalovo ideologiziranje.

Model predstavnicke demokratije je u krizi, onakav kakav poznajemo; s druge strane, za dobar deo sveta se definitivno postavlja pitanje da li je visestranacki pluralizam pravi i jedini odgovor na izazove trazenja novih i lokalno upotrebljivih modela politickog organizovanja.

Kopiranje, prosto presadjivanje zapadnog modela, sa mehanicki prenesenim takozvanim visestranackim slobodnim izborima se nije bas pokazalo, od Istocne Evrope pa do Dalekog Istoka: tim drustvima je nametnut jedan model na koji nisu bila spremna ni kulturno ni po svojoj tradiciji, a ako se bas hoce ni po mentalitetu sto nikako ne znaci neciju nesposobnost da taj model prihvati i primeni.

Mozda, samo mozda, moguci odgovor lezi u nacinu na koji ce Kina da resi slican problem: uspesna transplantacija kapitalizma u jednopartijski sistem ili obrnuto, svejedno i pokusaj atikulacije politickih pluralizama na neki nov i pre svega ekonomski ali i demokratski uspesan i odrziv nacin, pri cemu demokratija nikako ne mora da bude ono na sta smo navikli da vidimo na Zapadu i sto je - ocigledno neuspesno - pokusavano da se nametne, po negde i silom, kao jedini moguci i za Zapad prihvatljiv model, 1 ulaznica takoreci.

[Gandalf]

Preostar si prema sekularizaciji pojedinih islamskih zemalja: to je bio model koji je fukcionisao, negde bolje, negde gore...

gde je funkcionisalo, a da se nije raspalo kada je represivni aparat popustio?

 

Kopiranje, prosto presadjivanje zapadnog modela, sa mehanicki prenesenim takozvanim visestranackim slobodnim izborima se nije bas pokazalo...

 

u Turskoj je kopiran francuski sekularizam. u dobroj meri pod uticajem pozitivistickih budala, koji su imali znacajan uticaj na elitne krugove i doveli do uverenosti da je naucno-tehnokratskim metodama drustvenog inzenjeringa moguce od preindustrijskog drustva stvoriti Francusku.

 

pozitivisti su imali poseban uticaj na vojne oficire koji su sebe smatrali elitnim modernizatorima, koji ce vojnim planiranjem i naucnom efikasnoscu napraviti cuda. (Ordem e Progresso na brazilskoj zastavi je indikator uticaja pozitivista u LatAmerici)

 

tamo gde nisu kopirali, gde se na evropske lepe teorije nisu obazirali, niti su slusali mudre savete... tu su napravili cudo. Japan, Kina, Juzna Koreja, Malezija.

Edited August 31, 2015 by Gandalf

[namenski]

gde je funkcionisalo, a da se nije raspalo kada je represivni aparat popustio?

 

Ili je malo poguran od strane takozvanog spoljasnjeg faktora i u njegovom interesu?

Jos kad je isti tome pristupio u nevreme, kad mu vreme nije, usrao motku i posle raspada ostavio vakuum za alternative?

 

Malo si ipak preostar sa pozitivistickim budalama.

Svako vreme ima svoje, ne znam primenu kog modela si mogao da ocekujes pocetkom 20-ih od strane Atataturka, u situaciji u kakvoj je Turska vec bila...

[Gandalf]

Ili je malo poguran od strane takozvanog spoljasnjeg faktora i u njegovom interesu?

nope. trulo je.

 

Svako vreme ima svoje, ne znam primenu kog modela si mogao da ocekujes pocetkom 20-ih od strane Atataturka, u situaciji u kakvoj je Turska vec bila...

http://www.larouchepub.com/eiw/public/1992/eirv19n33-19920821/eirv19n33-19920821_050-a_personal_account_of_japans_mei.pdf

 

The Japanese learned a great deal from studying the economics of Friedrich List and Alexander Hamilton, from studying both their published works and the economies of Germany and the United States. That tradition is more alive in Japan today than in either Gennany, or most assuredly, in the United States. Although they learned and assimilated a great deal from the West, nonetheless, as Mrs. Reischauer documents, their ability to do so was rooted in the strengths of Japanese culture itself.

Edited August 31, 2015 by Gandalf

[Gandalf]

their ability to do so was rooted in the strengths of Japanese culture itself.

P.S. sto se tice ovoga... manje-vise isti pristup se vidi i u Kini, Maleziji, Juznoj Koreji, Indiji. prilagodjavali su se, nesto menjali, nesto odbili da promene...

 

Ataturk je jednog dana prosto odlucio da spali sve mostove koji su Turke spajali sa posloscu, napravi novo drustvo, nove i bolje Turke, i novu modernu kulturu. nije se primilo, nije ni moglo da se primi.

[Gandalf]

Malo si ipak preostar sa pozitivistickim budalama.

 

Before proceeding to criticize Utopian engineering in detail, I wish to outline another approach to social engineering, namely, that of piecemeal engineering. It is an approach which I think to be methodologically sound. The politician who adopts this method may or may not have a blueprint of society before his mind, he may or may not hope that mankind will one day realize an ideal state, and achieve happiness and perfection on earth. But he will be aware that perfection, if at all attainable, is far distant, and that every generation of men, and therefore also the living, have a claim; perhaps not so much a claim to be made happy, for there are no institutional means of making a man happy, but a claim not to be made unhappy, where it can be avoided. They have a claim to be given all possible help, if they suffer.

 

The piecemeal engineer will, accordingly, adopt the method of searching for, and fighting against, the greatest and most urgent evils of society, rather than searching for, and fighting for, its greatest ultimate good. This difference is far from being merely verbal. In fact, it is most important. It is the difference between a reasonable method of improving the lot of man, and a method which, if really tried, may easily lead to an intolerable increase in human suffering. It is the difference between a method which can be applied at any moment, and a method whose advocacy may easily become a means of continually postponing action until a later date, when conditions are more favourable. And it is also the difference between the only method of improving matters which has so far been really successful, at any time, and in any place (Russia included, as will be seen), and a method which, wherever it has been tried, has led only to the use of violence in place of reason, and if not to its own abandonment, at any rate to that of its original blueprint.

 

Karl Popper, "The Open Society and Its Enemies"

[namenski]

OK.

[hazard]

P.S. sto se tice ovoga... manje-vise isti pristup se vidi i u Kini, Maleziji, Juznoj Koreji, Indiji. prilagodjavali su se, nesto menjali, nesto odbili da promene...

 

Ataturk je jednog dana prosto odlucio da spali sve mostove koji su Turke spajali sa posloscu, napravi novo drustvo, nove i bolje Turke, i novu modernu kulturu. nije se primilo, nije ni moglo da se primi.

 

Japan nije morao da spali sam sebe, 1945. je vec bio temeljno spaljen...

[Pečorin]

http://www.b92.net/info/vesti/index.php?yyyy=2015&mm=09&dd=01&nav_category=78&nav_id=1033702

[Marcus Wulffings]

trebaće malo više vremena da to preraste u pravu intervenciju, za sada su to samo instruktori i oprema

[Lord Protector]

Ynet je izraelski izvor, ne znam koliko pouzdan:

 

 

Russian jets in Syrian skies

Russia has begun its military intervention in Syria, deploying an aerial contingent to a permanent Syrian base, in order to launch attacks against ISIS and Islamist rebels; US stays silent.

Alex Fishman

Published:  08.31.15, 15:34 / Israel News  

 

Russian fighter pilots are expected to begin arriving in Syria in the coming days, and will fly their Russian air force fighter jets and attack helicopters against ISIS and rebel-aligned targets within the failing state.

 

According to Western diplomats, a Russian expeditionary force has already arrived in Syria and set up camp in an Assad-controlled airbase. The base is said to be in area surrounding Damascus, and will serve, for all intents and purposes, as a Russian forward operating base.

 

In the coming weeks thousands of Russian military personnel are set to touch down in Syria, including advisors, instructors, logistics personnel, technical personnel, members of the aerial protection division, and the pilots who will operate the aircraft.
 

A formation of Russian Mig 31's (Photo: Reuters)

Past reports have stated that the Russians were in talks to sell the Syrians a package of MiG-29 fighter jets, and Yak-130 trainer jets (which can also serve as attack aircraft.) The current makeup of the expeditionary force is still unknown, but there is no doubt that Russian pilots flying combat missions in Syrian skies will definitely change the existing dynamics in the Middle East.

 

The Russians do not harbor offensive intentions towards Israel or other sovereign states in the area, and their main stated goal is battling ISIS and preserving Assad's rule. However, their presence will represent a challenge to the Israeli Air Force's freedom of operation in the skies above the Middle East.

 

Western diplomatic sources recently reported that a series of negotiations had been held between the Russians and the Iranians, mainly focusing on ISIS and the threat it poses to the Assad regime. The infamous Iranian Quds Force commander Major General Qasem Soleimani recently visited Moscow in the framework of these talks. As a result the Russians and the Iranians reached a strategic decision: Make any effort necessary to preserve Assad's seat of power, so that Syria may act as a barrier, and prevent the spread of ISIS and Islamist backed militias into the former Soviet Islamic republics.

 

Russian Air force air craft (Photo: Reuters)

 

The Russians are not the only ones coordinating their Middle East policy with the Iranians; The US has also jumped aboard that train. American government officials have been holding intensive consultations with representatives of the Iranian regime concerning a stronger joint effort against ISIS in Iraq. It seems that the US government currently views Iran as a central and necessary force in the campaign against ISIS within Iraq.

 

The Iranian-American cooperation is focused on two focal points: The first being Anbar province, where the Iraqis have thus far failed to expel ISIS; and the second Mosul, where the Iraqis have yet to come up with a feasible plan to recapture the city.

 

Western diplomatic sources have emphasized that the Obama administration is fully aware of the Russian intent to intervene directly in Syria, but has yet to issue any reaction. The absence of a vocal opposition from the Obama administration is compounded by its cessation of calls for the dissolution of Assad's murderous regime.

 

This and more: The Iranians and the Russians- with the US well aware- have begun the struggle to reequip the Syrian army, which has been left in tatters by the civil war. They intend not only to train Assad's army, but to also equip it. During the entire duration of the civil war, the Russians have consistently sent a weapons supply ship to the Russian held port of Tartus in Syria on a weekly basis. The ships would bring missiles, replacement parts, and different types of ammunition for the Syrian army.

 

A Russian Air Force Mig 31 (Photo: Reuters)

 

Arab media outlets have recently published reports that Syria and Russia were looking for an additional port on the Syrian coast, which will serve the Russians in their mission to hasten the pace of the Syrian rearmament.

 

In the meantime, Assad's army is in full scale retreat in the strategic province of Idlib. Mere days ago, a force from the Jaesh Al Fatah (A coalition or rebel groups including Jabhat al-Nusra) advanced on the Abu Duhur military airfield in southwestern Syria's Iblib province, which borders on Latika. Alwaite and Christian residents of the area have fled to the last remaining Alawite Bantustans along the country's coastline.

 

Even Turkey, which has so far avoided any action which would strengthen Assad, has had to come to terms with the Russian-Iranian move and the resulting American silence, leading it to launch its own bombing campaign against ISIS in Syria.

 

During a recent trip to Qatar, Erdogan reached understandings with the Qataris and the Saudis regarding a program to arm Muslim Brotherhood backed rebels who are fighting against ISIS, de-facto fighting both Assad and ISIS. 

 

Ako je ovo tačno Putin pravi veliku grešku. Direktno vojno petljanje po Bliskom istoku izazvaće reakciju Amerike i pogoršanje ionako narušene ruske ekonomsko-političke pozicije. Bojim se da ćemo uskoro otvoriti još par topica sa novom kriznom tematikom.

 
 

Edited September 1, 2015 by slow

[steins]

http://www.b92.net/info/vesti/index.php?yyyy=2015&mm=09&dd=01&nav_category=78&nav_id=1033702

 

ovo može da ispadne vrlo interesantno. Ne bi se začudio da i zvanično postane proxy kalibra Avganistana.  

[beta]

rusi su imali pomorsku bazu u tartusu i tradicionalno dobre veze sa porodicom asad ali su sad počeli da menjaju zvanični stav

[Lord Protector]

ovo može da ispadne vrlo interesantno. Ne bi se začudio da i zvanično postane proxy kalibra Avganistana.

 

Ne verujem, Putin najverovatnije diže ulog u Siriji da bi dobio olakšice na drugom mestu. Asadov režim je klinički mrtav. Problem je u tome što ako se preigra vrlo lako može da dobije nešto drugo od kauboja, a to neće biti ustupci.

Edited September 1, 2015 by slow