Sirija

[Hella]

8 minutes ago, slow said:

 

 

pa ne stvarno ajde sad okači i šta misle soraja i stanija i diskrecija i ostale prodavačice sifilističkog ludila s instagrama baš nas zanima 

[Eraserhead]

Ja juce okacio Grinvalda i tekst o likvidaciji novinara od strane Asadovaca i bilo je “zasto to kacis kad gori hilandar”

[Krošek]

Quote

This is not a drill: Syria showdown could spark Israeli-Iranian and U.S.-Russian clashes - Israel News

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This is not a drill, as Prime Minister Netanyahu made clear to his cabinet colleagues on Wednesday. The situation in Israel’s north is tense and explosive. After seven years of horrid civil war, Syria is turning into a confrontation zone between Israel and Iran, on the regional level, and Russia and the West, on the global level. The expected American retaliation for the chemical weapon attack carried out last weekend at Douma can start a chain reaction that could lead to escalation, if not conflagration.

 

Russia’s tone has changed. Moscow has uncharacteristically and harshly chastised Israel for its bombing of the suspected Iranian installation in Syria’s T-4 air base near Palmyra. The Kremlin has unusually and pointedly warned the United States not to carry out a punitive raid against its client Syria, explicitly threatening to intercept U.S. missiles.

Such challenges, even if only meant as bluster, can easily turn into self-fulfilling ultimatums that obligate Vladimir Putin to act.

 

Iran hopes to capitalize on the newfound Russian bellicosity. Just as a diplomatic deal between Washington and Moscow on Syria’s future would necessarily include severe limitations on the Iranian presence in Syria, tensions if not open hostility between the two powers could provide a cover for Iran to accelerate its efforts to entrench its forces and militias wherever possible. Putin’s natural inclination to rein in Iranian activities in Syria could be offset by his wish to poke Washington in the eye in response to a possible U.S. strike on Syria. And Tehran, one assumes, would be delighted to provoke an Israeli-Russian confrontation.

Israel, for its part, has stated and restated that Iranian expansion into Syria is a red line that should not be crossed. Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman said that Israel would act against Iranian infringements, as it reportedly has in the bombing of T-4, “no matter what the price.” Netanyahu is certainly wary of exacerbating tensions with Moscow but is unlikely to back away from his defense minister’s threats. And in a faceoff between Putin and Donald Trump, Netanyahu will no doubt side with the latter and thus potentially infuriate the former. Future Israeli incursions into Syria could very well meet a far more dangerous Russian response.

>> Syria Live Updates: Trump Threatens Moscow as Israel Stares Down Iran

Spoiler

 

Syrian President Assad should be the last person interested in turning Syria into a battleground for outside powers. He is about to emerge victorious from a deadly 7-year challenge that was supposed to finish him off, and to start rebuilding his country and reconsolidating his grip on power. Then again, Assad may no longer be the restrained and calculating leader he was thought to be before he managed to turn the tables on his formidable adversaries. His alleged decision to launch a major chemical attack, which he must have known would lead to international outrage - in a region that was about to fall to his forces anyway - may indicate that Assad’s triumph has gone to his head.

Turkey is its own basket case. Ankara detests Assad and is also opposed to Iranian expansion, but its overriding interest is to contain and control rebellious Kurds in northern Syria and western Iraq. To this end, Turkish leader Tayip Erdogan has cultivated ties to Putin, despite their apparently conflicting objectives and interests in Syria. If hostilities break out, Turkey could find itself caught in the crossfire, even if it is simply trying to sit on the fence while whacking the Kurds when no one is looking.

>>Israel on high alert, prepares for possible Iranian retaliation after strike on Syrian base ■ Revealed: The Iranian compound targeted by the 'Israeli strike' in Syria

Which brings us to the known unknown, Donald Trump, the joker in the pack. His statements and tweets leave no doubt that the U.S. intends to strike Syria very soon, with or without allies. Trump and his advisers certainly view the nerve gas attack at Douma as a direct challenge and provocation to the United States that mandates a forceful response. Suspicious minds in Washington are also concerned, however, that Trump might use the cover of tensions with Syria, Iran and Russia to carry out his long sought goal of dismissing Special Counsel Robert Mueller, a wish made doubly fervent by the recent FBI raid on the offices of his lawyer and confidant, Michael Miller. Trump’s flippant and arrogant Wednesday morning challenge to Moscow – “Get ready Russia, because [the missiles] will be coming, nice and new and “smart!””| - does not inspire confidence in the ability of the leader of the Western world to navigate the treacherous minefield awaiting him with discretion and cool-headedness.

The brink is just around the corner, as British Prime Minister Theresa May well knows. She has reportedly demanded positive proof that it was Assad’s forces that carried out the chemical attack; if the report is true, it means that Western intelligence agencies do not possess that kind of certainty yet. May’s hesitation may reflect her reluctance to get involved in a Middle East melee while still dealing with the aftermath of the alleged nerve gas attack carried out by Russia against former spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia, but her demand for unequivocal proof is well warranted. Everyone remembers the last time America went to war in the Middle East on the basis of a false premise.

The myriad forces and actors, which include groups such as Hezbollah, al-Qaeda, ISIS and even Hamas, are gearing up for action. Tensions are rising, and the brink is clearly just ahead. With so many conflicting and converging interests coming into play at the same time, it’s not clear that that the main players can still step back, on the assumption that they even want to. Iran, Syria and their terrorist clients certainly need to be taught a lesson and held at bay, but future historians might still portray the events of recent days as a march of folly, the inexorable deterioration of a tense situation into a war that all its participants will come to regret.

 

malo izraelskog ugla. ugl. consequences will never be the same, to je bar jasno

[vememah]

 

https://yougov.co.uk/opi/surveys/results#/survey/a1734cbb-3bd9-11e8-b20c-41ddd3fa01be/question/3195f2dc-3bda-11e8-b8a5-37b0c07c55f7/politics

[Anduril]

7 hours ago, harper said:

 

A ko bi trebalo da odluci? Mi smo vec jednom u Iraku videli sta se desava kad se posalje istrazivacki tim i izadje sa zakljuccima koji ne odgovaraju Vasingtonu. Sef tima je ismejan i prognan kao poslednja dzukela, izvestaj je izbacen kroz prozor a SAD je poslala ogromnu vojsku da se licno uveri koliko je taj izvestaj tacan i usput unisti jednu drzavu, stvori ISIS i sjebe ceo region. Na kraju se, naravno, ispostavilo da izvestaj jeste tacan ali je vuk pojeo magarca i svi se pravimo da se nista nije desilo.

 

Bez tog istrazivackog tima i nezavisne institucije pola zapadnih drzava i istorija ne bi mogle da sude o Busovoj vladi kako su vec presudile.

Nije neka pravda ali barem se zna istina da je car je go. Bolje nego da sile u SB glume neke sudije i institucije sto definitivno nisu i ne mogu da budu.  

[burekdzija]

Jos da Hollywood snimi film i krug demokratije je zatvoren.

[Friend]

Bas sam se pitao gde je ovaj sto je sprzio Irak kad ono bam, evo ga:

 

Bivši britanski premijer Toni Bler je apelovao na premijerku Terezu Mej da bude spremna na vojnu akciju u Siriji.

 

[Anduril]

Eno, i Izraelci spominju kako se Mej premislja posto se seca kako je poslednja intervencija u Iraku izvedena zbog lazi.

[mlatko]

uzeti opet sa dozom rezerve, ali izgleda da nisu ni pitali italijane. mada je samo izvidjacka misija

[vememah]

 

[harper lee]

1 hour ago, Anduril said:

 

Bez tog istrazivackog tima i nezavisne institucije pola zapadnih drzava i istorija ne bi mogle da sude o Busovoj vladi kako su vec presudile.

Nije neka pravda ali barem se zna istina da je car je go. Bolje nego da sile u SB glume neke sudije i institucije sto definitivno nisu i ne mogu da budu.  

 

Pa, ne mislim ja da ambasadori zemalja clanica SB idu u inspekciju, samo verujem da bi to okruzenje moglo da smisli objektivniju komisiju nego bilo koja od zainteresovanih strana. I Rikerova komisija je valjda imala mandat UN.

 

Sto se ovog drugog tice, pametan covek se valjda uci na greskama. Nije valjda potrebno da dodatno strada ionako postradali narod u Siriji kako bismo mogli post festum da zauzmemo high moral ground. Rekao bih da nije moguce da ce zapadna javnost ponovo biti navucena na te gluposti ali se onda setim da se i pre intervencije u Iraku veoma dobro znalo da Husein nema WMD pa je ta steta ipak svesno ucinjena. Te ratne profitere i slicne nitkove jednostavno zabole kurac za to kako ce im istorija presuditi, ocigledno je da jako dobro podnose tu osudu na privatnoj jahti sa casom dobrog single malta u jednoj i dupetom 40 godina mladje plavuse u drugoj ruci.

 

Iz rupe je, vidim, izmileo i Toni fucking Bler, jedan od golih careva koji nema nameru da se prehladi.

[vememah]

Quote

 

Theresa May looks ready to join military action against the Assad regime in Syria without first seeking parliamentary consent, well-placed sources have told the BBC.

The prime minister is said by government insiders to see the need for a response as urgent.

She wants to prevent a repeat of the apparent chemical attack near Damascus, which she described as "abhorrent".

Labour's Jeremy Corbyn has warned that bombing could escalate the situation.

Mrs May is understood to be reluctant to ask US President Donald Trump to hold off any action until she has the opportunity to consult MPs at Westminster.

Formally, she has yet to unequivocally point the finger of blame at the Assad government, the BBC's deputy political editor John Pienaar said.

She has spoken of the need for action "if" the regime is found to bear responsibility, he added, but the strong assumption in Downing Street and Whitehall is the attack will be attributed to the forces of President Bashar al-Assad. Action is thought likely to follow within days.

Mrs May earlier described the use of chemical weapons as a "humanitarian catastrophe" that "cannot go unchallenged".

She did not comment on Donald Trump's tweet warning Russia to "get ready" for missiles being fired at its ally Syria.

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-43719284

Edited April 11, 2018 by vememah

[Krošek]

ja ovako zamiljsam stvari:
rusi i amerikanci u nekom kanalu dogovaraju kako da napad bude kvalitativno razlicit od par tuceta tomahavka, a da ovim redom ne bude
1. nista radikalno tipa rakete osim uobicajenih tomahavka ili kakva ezoterija (da ne pricamo o atomskim bombama)
2. koriscenja americke "raketne artiljerije" (sustinski balistickih raketa s obzirom na domet) u siriji protiv pvo i dr. ciljeva i prema tome da ne bude "dogmaticki" neizbeznog ruskog balistickog napada i dr. konv. napada na americke polozaje u siriji (sto bi bilo opsta katastrofa)
3. ne bude rusenja americkih aviona od strane specificno ruskog pvo (katastrofa, malo manje opsta)
4. ne bude vazdusne bitke izmedju amerikanaca i rusa (neprijatno ali i nerealno jer rusi skoro pa da nemaju sta da traze tu)
5. ne bude unistavanja baze u tartusu i ruskih brodova (totalno nerealno i besmisleno s obzirom na proklamovane ciljeve) 
6. ne bude morske bitke i bilo kakvog napada na americke brodove i ometanja istih (tehnicki moguce s ruske strane ali amerikanci sigurno traze da rusi obecaju da se prave da brodovi ne postoje inace ce da im izbelajisu)
7. ne bude napada na pvo neselektivno, bez obzira da li je rusko ili sirijsko oruđe (zamisljam da amerikanci kazu: pvo će biti uništavan, pomiri se s tim, asadovo ili tvoje)
8. ne bude unistavanja asadovih aviona preko 50% kapaciteta
9. ne bude unistavanja vladinih i dr relevantnih zgrada
10. ostalo - verovatno moze da se nabroji 20 stavki

 

prema tome ocekujem da ce napad biti u vidu velikog, ogromnog, maltene debilnog broja tomahavka i ponesto, ne mnogo jakog, bombardovanja koje ce ciljati sirijsko vazduhoplovstvo, sirijski pvo i verovatno po koju zgradu u damasku i sl. + token zakačeni rusi simbolicno, maltene greskom negde, incidentno. rusi nece raditi tacno nista.
na posletku, to nece uticati na tok rata niti i na sta bitno

 

jedino me brinu francuzi. u mom romanu francuzi preћeraju

Edited April 11, 2018 by Krošek

[Miralem]

cudo kako se niko ne brine za male bele zeke prekoputa u jemenu. reko bi covek da im je bas stalo za svaki zeciji zivot.

[koksy]

30 minutes ago, Krošek said:

jedino me brinu francuzi. u mom romanu francuzi preћeraju

 

makaron neće biti sisa, on će dide do samog kraja.