Sirija

[Marcus Wulffings]

a macan na 36-oj slici... 41 je dobra, vidi se da je neka visoravan u bestragiji

[Prospero]

Vladimir Putin asked Bashar al-Assad to step down

Sam Jones in London, Erika Solomon in Beirut and Kathrin Hille in Kazan

 

 

 Igor Sergun was asked by Vladimir Putin in 2015 to propose to Bashar al-Assad that he step down. The answer was no

Just weeks before his death on January 3, Colonel-General Igor Sergun, director of Russia’s GRU military intelligence agency, was sent to Damascus on a delicate mission.

The general, who is believed to have cut his teeth as a Soviet operative in Syria, bore a message from Vladimir Putin for President Bashar al-Assad: the Kremlin, the Syrian dictator’s most powerful international protector, believed it was time for him to step aside.

 

Mr Assad angrily refused.

 

Two senior western intelligence officials have given the Financial Times details of Sergun’s mission. The Russian foreign ministry referred a request for comment to the defence ministry, which said it was unable to comment.

 

But on Friday, in response to a question from a journalist, asking if the Russian leader had asked Mr Assad to step down, a spokesman for Mr Putin said: “No, that’s not so.”

 

Russia’s failed gamble in Damascus left Mr Assad more entrenched than before, and hopes for a diplomatic solution to the vicious civil war appear again to be ebbing away.

 

UN officials have spent the past week lowering expectations that the talks between the warring factions planned for January 25 in Geneva will go ahead, let alone produce a breakthrough.

 

It is a dramatic reversal of fortunes. News of the secret proposal delivered by Sergun — a choreographed transition of power that would maintain the Alawite regime but open the door to realistic negotiations with moderate rebels — added to a growing mood of optimism among western intelligence agencies in late 2015.

 

For the US-led coalition fighting Isis, it seemed that accommodating Moscow could break years of diplomatic deadlock over Mr Assad’s removal — a move Washington views as a precondition to cooling the sectarian tensions in Syria and Iraq that have fed the jihadi insurgency.

 

Moscow’s military intervention in the conflict in support of Damascus in late September, many in Europe and the US reasoned, had reached its limit. “Mr Putin had taken a look under the bonnet of the Syrian regime,” one senior European intelligence official told the FT “and found a lot more problems than he was bargaining for.”

 

However, Russia overplayed its hand, the official said, and Mr Assad made clear to Sergun that there could be no future for Russia in Syria unless he remained as president.

 

In his dealings with the Kremlin, Mr Assad has adopted a strategy of playing one foreign power off against another. His trump card on this occasion was Iran. Russia has been nervous of Tehran’s growing regional influence at the cost of its own leverage for months.

 

People close to the Syrian regime say suspicions about Russia’s intentions have been growing in Damascus for some time. “That mood of elation when Russia first got involved lasted for a while, but then people got more pessimistic,” said one Damascus businessman. “Assad’s people started to realise that having the big brother defending them meant he could also demand things of them too.”

 

Mr Assad has also been scrupulous in rooting out any powerful figures who might one day stand as an alternative to his leadership.

 

The disappearance of Abdel Aziz al-Khair, an Alawite dissident, was a striking example, said Joshua Landis, a Syria analyst from the University of Oklahoma.

 

Mr Khair, a leading member of the National Co-ordinating Body, a political grouping dedicated to negotiating with Mr Assad to achieve democratic change, was from a prominent family in Mr Assad’s home town, said Mr Landis.

 

“He went to Moscow in 2012 and then he went to Beijing. It seemed clear to everyone they were checking him out as a potential Alawite replacement to the current regime that could assure the Alawite community,” Mr Landis said. On his return to Damascus he was taken from the airport by security agencies.

 

“That seemed to be a sign that Assad was not going to allow Russia to pick the next president,” Mr Landis added.

 

Moscow is frustrated. “It has become quite clear that part of an eventual political solution is that Assad has to step aside at some point, although we don’t think that it has been decided yet when that should be,” said a Russian authority on Syria who is involved in Moscow’s diplomacy. “Ever since President Assad was flown in to be received by our president last year, his attitude has been less than satisfactory, and this does interfere with our efforts towards a political solution.”

 

But the Kremlin is also pragmatic, note many foreign policy experts, and its intervention is as much about projecting itself on the international stage as it is about determining Syria’s leader.

 

Dmitri Trenin, head of the Carnegie Moscow Center, said: “For Putin, the intervention in Syria was never about keeping Assad in power, it is about getting the Americans to acknowledge Russia’s key role in settling this conflict, and that’s being achieved through the Vienna process.

 

“But it looks premature to engineer a coup in Syria — I don’t see how that would help the political process as there are not enough opposition people who can accept the regime if it gets just a different figurehead.”

 

Meanwhile, says one British diplomat, with no palatable strategy for withdrawal, Russia appears to be doubling down on its military intervention, leaving the prospect of a negotiated peace as far from reality as it has ever been.

 

[Prospero]

Washington supports the participation of the Saudi-backed Islamist militia Jaysh al-Islam (Army of Islam) - something Moscow has strongly objected to. Russia insists that political figures it deems more moderate, such as Qadri Jamil, a former Syrian deputy prime minister, and Saleh Muslim, co-head of the Syrian Kurdish group PYD, should join the negotiations, Kommersant daily reported Saturday.

 

A compromise has allegedly now been reached, however, with Moscow agreeing to the presence of Jaysh al-Islam at the talks. In return, Washington will not object to a separate Syrian opposition delegation being invited, Bloomberg reports, citing three Western and UN diplomats who spoke on condition of anonymity.

 

 

by Tapatalk

[mackenzie]

USA & Saudi BFF

 

 

 

Kerry says US-Saudi friendship stronger than ever

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia (AP) — Secretary of State John Kerry said Sunday that the U.S. friendship with Saudi Arabia is stronger than ever and that the two will work together to try to end wars in Syria and Yemen.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/article-3414161/Kerry-says-US-Saudi-friendship-stronger-ever.html#ixzz3yDHM8cPL 

[Gandalf]

^^

sasvim u skladu sa dosadasnjom politikom u Siriji. minimalni americki angazman u ovom slucaju znaci da se maksimalno popusta Rusima.

Edited January 25, 2016 by Gandalf

[bigvlada]

USA & Saudi BFF

 

Quote

 

 

Kerry says US-Saudi friendship stronger than ever

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia (AP) — Secretary of State John Kerry said Sunday that the U.S. friendship with Saudi Arabia is stronger than ever and that the two will work together to try to end wars in Syria and Yemen.

 

Read more: http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz3yDHM8cPL 

 

[vathra]

Лоша ти је слика, Владо.

Џаба им авиони и сва техника кад им је никаква пешадија.

 

Показатељ колико је која војска заправо јака је њена пешадија, још од старог Рима. А саудијска је слаба, слаба.

[mackenzie]

kakva ti je droga takva ti je vojska.  :D

 

 

 

khat vs captagon

[bigvlada]

Лоша ти је слика, Владо.

Џаба им авиони и сва техника кад им је никаква пешадија.

 

Показатељ колико је која војска заправо јака је њена пешадија, још од старог Рима. А саудијска је слаба, слаба.

 

Trebao sam da dam obrazloženje, slika nije trebalo da pokaže kvalitet pešadije (koji je kod Saudijaca nizak) već nešto drugo. 

 

Nadam se da će mi Notorious oprostiti što ću upotrebiti njen post sa druge teme. 

 

 

Spremnost za koaliciju (cenzusnu, tehničku, kakvu god) sa Saudima nije sitnica, ukazuje na to da Buš/Obama (ako je vest tačna): a) nije našao za shodno da baci pogled na njihov program; b) u programu ne opaža ništa suštinski inkompatibilno sa elementarnim ljudskim normama; c) važno mu je da se domogne  upravljanja privredom, sve ostalo je marginalno; d) smatra da će ih u postizbornom periodu lako potisnuti (uz pomoć prijatelja); e) pomalo od svega. 

Nije neophodno biti naročito politički pismen da bi se razumela potreba za distanciranjem od Sauda, nezavisno od okolnosti. Pragmatično šurovanje sa kusim i repatim obično nije korisno na duže staze. 

 

 

A i ovo su krš, level 1 demoni, topovsko meso.  -_-

[Prospero]

The Obama administration just 'made a scary retreat' in its Syria policy, and negotiations are quickly unraveling

Natasha Bertrand

 

 

In a meeting with members of Syria's opposition in Saudi Arabia on Saturday, US Secretary of State John Kerry demanded that rebels accept a set of preconditions dictated by Russia and Iran in order to participate in peace talks, according to an explosive report by the daily pan-Arab newspaper Al Hayat.

 

The terms Kerry reportedly asked the opposition Saudi-backed High Negotiation Committee (HNC) to accept — including a "national unity government" instead of a transitional governing body that would phase Syrian President Bashar al-Assad out of power — represent "a scary retreat in the US position," opposition sources told the head of Al Hayat's Damascus bureau, Ibrahim Hamidi.

 

According to translations provided by multiple Middle East analysts on Twitter, Kerry told the opposition delegation that, based on an "understanding" he had reached with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Assad has the right to run for reelection and there will be no set timetable for his departure.

 

That stands in contrast to the White House's previous position that while Assad does not have to go immediately, the timing of his departure should be addressed during negotiations.

Kerry also signaled the Obama administration's endorsement of a four-point peace plan for Syria created by Iran, a staunch ally of Assad. The plan calls for an immediate ceasefire, the establishment of a national unity government, the anchoring of minority rights in the constitution, and internationally supervised presidential elections in Syria.

 

UN Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura pushed for the national ceasefire on Monday, saying in a press conference from Geneva that "the condition is it should be a real ceasefire and not just local."

The ceasefire would apply to all warring parties but the ISIS and Al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra. As Al Hayat has noted, that implicitly would grant legitimacy and "an official status" to the Shiite militias Iran has built in Syria to support Assad.

 

Including minority rights in the constitution, meanwhile, would serve as an attempt to "anchor sectarian tensions" between Sunni and Shiite Muslims within a legal framework.

 

These demands are "a desperate move" by the US to make the negotiations "look like progress,"tweeted Hassan Hassan, coauthor of "ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror" and resident fellow at the DC-based think tank Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy.

"De Mistura also echoed Russia's demands. Short-sighted of the US to think this will go well," he added.

 

So far, it is not going anywhere. Members of the HNC reportedly rejected Kerry's demands and have threatened to boycott the negotiations altogether. They reiterated that they will not attend the talks until the government halts air strikes and ends its sieges of rebel-held territory, in accordance with UN resolution 2254, adopted last month by the UN Security Council.

 

The terms of that resolution have failed to materialize, but Kerry apparently pressured the opposition into attending the talks anyway. Rebel sources told Al Hayat that Kerry went one step further and threatened to cut off US aid to rebel groups if they failed to show up at the negotiating table.

 

On Monday, Kerry reiterated that preconditions are a nonstarter for negotiations. But he categorically denied that he had threatened to cut off aid to the rebel groups.

 

"The position of the United States is and hasn't changed. We are still supporting the opposition, politically, financially and militarily," he said, according to The Associated Press. "We completely empowered them. I don't know where this is coming from."

 

He noted, however, that "it's up to the Syrians to decide what happens to Assad," effectively echoing Russian officials.

 

Nawaf Obaid, an Al Hayat columnist and visiting fellow at Harvard's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, further noted the meeting's most significant and "shocking" points in a series of tweets on Sunday:

 

@NawafEObaid

In the following six tweets, readout of yesterday's meeting between @JohnKerry & Dr Riyad Hijab is outlined. It's shocking to say the least!

 

@NawafEObaid

1) #US agrees to #Iranian four point peace plan for #Syria announced by #Iran foreign minister @JZarif in 2014 - https://t.co/B7LHw55eyE

 

@NawafEObaid

2) #US agrees that Haytham Manaa, Saleh Muslim & Qadri Jamil will be invited by #DeMistura to attend #Geneva talks in consultative capacity

 

@NawafEObaid

3) #US agrees that regardless of whether #Russian bombing #Syrian rebels stops, US will NOT step up support to #Syria opposition forces

 

@NawafEObaid

4) #US warns #Syrian opposition delegation that if they don't go to #Geneva peace talks, US will stop ALL support to #Syria rebel groups

 

@NawafEObaid

5) #US agrees that #Geneva #Syria peace talks will be to form a government of national unity, NOT a transitional governing body

 

@NawafEObaid

6) #US agrees there is no timetable for #Assad's departure from power in #Syria & has right to nominate himself for reelection if he chooses

 

 

While the HNC's senior negotiator, Mohammad Aloush, promised a "strong reaction" to these demands in a press conference on Sunday, HNC spokesman Salim al-Muslat told Reuters that the meeting with Kerry had been "positive" overall.

 

Former Syrian opposition leader Hadi Albahra noted, too, that the reports circulating about Kerry's requests for the HNC were "not fully accurate."

On Monday, however, de Mistura announced that talks will be postponed at least four days, to January 29, while negotiators work to resolve lingering disagreements over which members of the opposition will be invited to participate.

 

Kerry apparently stipulated that the HNC has to include certain Moscow-friendly opposition leaders into its delegation, including Kurdish PYD leader Saleh Muslim, former Syrian deputy Prime Minister Qadri Jamil, and Haitham Manna, exiled leader of the non-Islamist Syrian Democratic Council.

 

The Saudi-backed HNC has so far refused to expand its delegation, insisting that it represents all legitimate opposition players. In response, Bloomberg reported, the US and Russia are considering inviting a separate opposition delegation to the talks made up of rebel leaders Moscow has proposed and endorsed.

 

Middle East analyst Kyle Orton, an associate fellow at UK-based think tank The Henry Jackson Society, tweeted a grim analysis: "With the way things have stacked up, it's hard not to see it as Obama and Kerry consciously working for the defeat of Syria's opposition."

 

Hassan Hassan put it bluntly: "US officials are telling Syrians what extremists have been telling them for years — the US isn't your friend."

 

[Krošek]

rusi pobijedili

[Prospero]

Sudeći po sveukupnom chatteru zadnjih par nedelja, može biti da je Obama negde na liniji da želi privede kraju neke bitnije sporove s Rusijom, kao i Siriju, pre kraja mandata, a i da Kremlj ima želju da mu olakša sve to. 

[Prospero]

Ovo neki turski Mirko Jović, Giška, šta li, ucmekala ga ruska avijacija
 
 

[Gandalf]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/david-nott-interview-war-surgeon-reveals-how-healthcare-workers-are-being-targeted-in-syria-a6831646.html

 

Dr Nott is known in the press as the Indiana Jones of surgery, a title he has never liked, but which attaches itself somewhat inevitably to a man who has saved lives in most of the world’s major conflicts since Bosnia in 1993.

...

Every year he takes up to three months’ leave to work in conflict or disaster zones. Sometimes in ramshackle clinics, sometimes with rudimentary instruments, he has operated in Sierra Leone, Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo. He was with the Defence Medical Services in Basra, Iraq, in 2007 and has served at Afghanistan’s Camp Bastion.

...

But nothing has compared to his experiences in Syria where, he says, the work and lives of healthcare workers like him are under threat as never before. 

[bigvlada]

The Saudi-backed HNC has so far refused to expand its delegation, insisting that it represents all legitimate opposition players. In response, Bloomberg reported, the US and Russia are considering inviting a separate opposition delegation to the talks made up of rebel leaders Moscow has proposed and endorsed.

 

Lublin^tm.