Sirija

[Meazza]

budi precizniji, na sta bi mogao da misli?

 

Na (eventualno) citav spektar stvari za koje znamo (politicki pritisak na Asada) i za koje ne znamo.

Edited October 8, 2015 by IndridCold

[Bane5]

Na (eventualno) citav spektar stvari za koje znamo (politicki pritisak na Asada) i za koje ne znamo.

 

vidi, postoji bar par stotina izjava zvanicnika USA o siriji u poslednjih 4,5 godine, postoji niz poteza prema asadu - sankcije npr., postoji i sporazum sa asadom o unistenju hemijskog oruzija, postojala je pretnja da ce ga bombardovati (tada je i splitovan ovaj topik) pa mu nista nije zafalilo vec samo stavilo do znanja da se USA nece direktno vojno mesati sto mu je samo pomoglo, a ne odmoglo.

ako je sve to njega oslabilo, onda je izjava opravdana,

realnost je ipak dosta drugacija jer upravo sadasnji upliv rusa i sveprisutnost irana samo govori u prilog da asadu ni sankcije ni verbalni pritisci amerike nisu bile pretnja.

ako se misli na direktnu vojnu pomoc sve sam ti objasnio onim primerom (uz napomenu da je ceo projekat bio vrlo ambiciozno zamisljen i sa velikim budzetom).

Edited October 8, 2015 by Bane5

[Prospero]

To je cela familija ASW, ASuW i tek od skoro LACM, sa dometima od 200 do 1.500 km. Varijante za izvoz (Klub familija) imaju znatno manji domet. Pitanje je na koju varijantu se ta cena uopšte odnosi.

 

Tim pre bi cena po pojedinačnom komadu morala biti gurana na dole, jer dele mnoge zajedničke komponente. Niža cena po jedinici je jedan od osnovnih rezona iza uniformnih/modularnih sistema.

[steins]

jel to usraše totalno ovu ofanzivu? Kolko sam mogao da pohvatam po netu, manje više silnu tehniku i ljudstvo spališe - i ništa? 

 

 

Moraće tu izgleda mali zeleni™ da se umešaju, od ovih ostalih nema ni go krivak. 

[urkozamanje]

Eh, aj' sad, nista sto ti bombe lete oko glave, zajebani si oni, zavlace se u pecine i tunele?

[Prospero]

Vest od juče, ali mislim da smo je propustili:
 
 
 

Russian warplanes in Syria destroy U.S.-trained rebels' weapons depots: commander
BEIRUT

 

Russian air strikes have destroyed the main weapons depots of a U.S.-trained rebel group in Syria, their commander said on Wednesday, in an expansion of Russian attacks on insurgents backed by foreign enemies of President Bashar al-Assad.

 

The Liwa Suqour al-Jabal, whose fighters have attended military training organized by the Central Intelligence Agency in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, was also hit last week by Russian raids as Moscow began its air campaign in support of Damascus.

 

New strikes targeted the group's main weapons depots in western Aleppo province and completely destroyed them late on Tuesday, its commander Hassan Haj Ali told Reuters on Wednesday via an Internet messaging service.

 

Haj Ali said he believed the Russians were targeting his group because it was one of the bigger and stronger factions fighting under the banner of the Free Syrian Army with support from "Arab and foreign countries".

 

"These were considered the principal depots of the Liwa," he told Reuters.

 

Liwa Suqour al-Jabal operates areas of western and northern Syria where many of Russia's air strikes have been focused and where the Islamic State group - the stated target of the Russian air raids - has no significant presence.

 

It is one of a number of Syrian rebel groups deemed moderate by the United States which have received training as part of an ostensibly covert CIA program. That program is separate to one set up by the Pentagon to train and equip Syrian insurgents to fight Islamic State.

 

The group has been supplied with guided anti-tank missiles by states that oppose Assad. These missiles have had a significant impact on the battlefield.

 

Liwa Suqour al-Jabal has also been battling attempts by Islamic State to advance in areas north of Aleppo near the Turkish border. Haj Ali said Islamic State had also attacked the group on Tuesday, setting off a car bomb at one of its bases.

 

Liwa Suqour al-Jabal was targeted last week in Russian strikes.

 

[Eraserhead]

 

 

 

Russia’s Giving ISIS An Air Force

 

 

Putin’s air campaign in Syria is not only supporting Assad, it’s giving cover to fighters from the so-called Islamic State.

Last June, the U.S. embassy in Damascus accused Bashar al-Assad’s air force of clearing a path for an ISIS advance on Syrian rebels in the Aleppo town of Azaz. “Reports indicate that the regime is making air strikes in support of [iSIS’s] advance on Aleppo, aiding extremists against Syrian population,” the embassy account tweeted, following up with a broader accusation: “We have long seen that the regime avoids [iSIS] lines, in complete contradiction to the regime’s claims to be fighting [iSIS].”

 

Now Russia seems to have inherited Assad’s role as the unacknowledged air force of ISIS.

 

On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s fighter jets rocketed an ammunition storehouse, destroying artillery, armored personnel carriers and even tanks belonging to Liwa Suqour al-Jabal, or The Mountain Eagles, a U.S.-backed brigade of the Free Syrian Army. A video uploaded by the brigade to YouTube shows the burning wreckage of the Russian airstrike, in Mansoura, in the western suburbs of Aleppo, as the local commander known as Abu Mohammed taunts his enemy: “Thank God, we are all fine,” says Abu Mohammed. “We don’t fear Russia or anyone helping the Russians. Bashar, we will remain resistant fighting you even without any ammunition or bullets. We will fight you with knives. We don’t need ammunition, Allahu Akhbar.”

 

The cameraman then adds that the Russians weren’t the only ones hitting the brigade yesterday. “The Russian airplanes are targeting Suqour al-Jabal’s weapon depots in Aleppo and ISIS attacked the bases with explosives at the same time.”

 

Hasan Hagali, the top commander for Suqour al-Jabal and a former captain in the Syrian Arab Army, explained via Skype to The Daily Beast: “Yesterday, at 5:30 p.m. a base belonging to Suqour al-Jabal was targeted in two air raids in Mansoura. (Although two U.S. officials told Bloomberg last month that Mig-31s were en route to Syria, they haven’t yet been filmed or photographed there, and earlier reports from August that they’d been sold to the Assad regime as part of an older arms contract have been disputed.) In each raid, there were three Russian Mig-31 jets. That’s our main arms depot, where we supply all our units. At the same exact time—5:30 p.m.—ISIS sent a car bomb against us in Deir Jemal, against our base. This is about 130 kilometers away from Mansoura.” An earlier ISIS attack against a Suqour al-Jabal frontline position, he added, occurred in Ehres, also in western Aleppo, at around 3 o'clock. But ISIS locations in the province, no doubt equally visible from the air, were left unscathed by the Russians.

 

In the last week, less than 10% of all Russian missiles (and now ship-borne cruise missiles) has struck ISIS or al-Qaeda-affiliated targets, according to the U.S. State Department. What is a consensus view among analysts is that ISIS clearly is not Putin’s quarry in Syria, at least not yet, because he’s too busy killing the anti-Assad rebels supported and armed by the Central Intelligence Agency. U.S. officials have acknowledged as much.

 

But that Moscow might actually be objectively helping ISIS defeat a common enemy by acting as air support for the jihadists’ ground assaults against U.S. proxies is less well understood, even though it fits with predictions warning that Putin’s adventure in the Levant was never going to be counterterrorist in nature.

 

Rather, this Russian adventure was designed to fortify a faltering client regime, possibly help it regain lost territory, and above all eliminate any credible threat to its legitimacy or long-term rule which, for the moment, ISIS does not pose.

 

“It’s clear that Russia’s strategy in Syria is to make the conflict binary by giving Syrians only two choices: Assad or ISIS,” said John Schindler, a former U.S. intelligence analyst and occasional Daily Beast contributor. “Attacks on the FSA, while encouraging defections to the regime, are a key component of how Russia operationalizes its strategy for Syria. Russia has excellent intelligence on Syria, especially from signals intelligence, and is using this to target FSA and others in a manner that the U.S. government can do little about now. Joint operations with ISIS are to be expected, some with intent, some by default, and should not surprise given the extent of regime intelligence penetration of [iSIS].”

 

Jeffrey White, a former Defense Intelligence Agency analyst and a military specialist at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, says that while he doesn’t doubt that the Russians will eventually set their sites on ISIS, for the time being, it behooves Moscow’s war aims to indirectly allow ISIS to devour U.S.-backed rebels. For one thing, Putin’s Federal Security Service (FSB), Russia’s domestic intelligence arm and one of the successors of the former KGB, has actually been helping jihadists in Dagestan emigrate to Syria to join ISIS, the better to lower the temperature on a homegrown Islamic insurgency and also enervate American-led coalition efforts.

 

The Russians, White added, have strategic form here. “We had the classic case of the destruction of the Polish Army in 1944,” he told The Daily Beast. “As the Soviets approached Warsaw, they stopped and let the Germans crush the Polish rebellion. The Red Army did nothing to help the Poles. But then they chased Germans out of Poland. It’s possible that a similar plan is unfolding in Syria.”

 

But it may not work.

 

“It’s clear that Russia’s strategy in Syria is to make the conflict binary by giving Syrians only two choices: Assad or ISIS.”

One of the ironies of the Obama administration’s vow not to interfere with Russia’s intervention in Syria is that it already has—and successfully.

 

Today, Russian warplanes heavily bombarded several targets along a salient in Hama province, reportedly using thermobaric munitions and the same multiple launch rocket systems earlier employed to devastating effect in east Ukraine. At the same time, Assad’s army advanced to dislodge the rebels from towns such as Kafr Zita, Morek and Kafr Nabudah. But the army failed, principally because many of its Free Syrian Army opponents were equipped with TOW guided anti-tank missiles, all supplied by the CIA. As many as 18 regime tanks (all manufactured in Russia or the former Soviet Union) were destroyed by these weapons in a 24-hour period. And the rebels held their ground in Hama.

 

At roughly the same time, Russian naval vessels fired long-distance cruise missiles across Iranian, Iraqi and Syrian airspace, hitting indeterminate targets in eastern Raqqa (where ISIS is present) but also in western Aleppo and Idlib (where ISIS is not). Footage of these strikes, accompanied by swishy computer-generated simulations of their flight paths, were disseminated almost in real time throughout Russia’s state-controlled propaganda organs, such as the English-language RT.

 

The battlefield may yet change following the injection of an unknown quantity of Russian “volunteers”—Putin’s shorthand for plausibly deniable Russian soldiers — in addition to hundreds of Iranian troops said to being joining Assad’s beleaguered military in the coming days and weeks. But it is almost beyond dispute that these foreign fighters will not be deployed to Raqqa and Deir Ezzor, where ISIS reigns, but rather to central and western Syria, where the Free Syrian Army plus other assorted Islamist and jihadists factions do.

 

The missile strikes at unknown targets from the Caspian are meant to project “strength and power,” according to Lilia Shevtsova, a nonresident fellow and Russia expert at the Brookings Institution. “The Kremlin’s adventure has both psychological and systemic dimensions,” she emailed The Daily Beast. “On the one hand, this is an act of blackmail against the West—Putin’s way of trying to force the Americans to accept the Kremlin’s rules of the game. On the other hand, it’s a desperate attempt to reproduce the military patriotic legitimacy of the Russian government. But erasing terrorists? Come on!”

 

 

 

 

 

EDIT: Sad vidim da je slicno ovome sto je prospero ostavio.

Edited October 8, 2015 by Eraserhead

[vathra]

Koliko košta ono što su Ameri sručili na bolnicu?

 

Практично јако мало - гађали су болницу из АЦ-130, односно летећом топовњачом (у правом смислу те речи) из топова калибра до 105мм. Значи "глупа" муниција које има доста.

Разлог зашто су Американци погодили болницу а Русима засад иде прилично добро је у квалитету обавештајних информација. За напад на болницу су Амери имали инфо од локалних снага, што очигледно нису проверили како треба.

 

Руси у Сирији већ више година имају центре за електронско извиђање, скоро су довели и Иљушина прилагођеног за исту намену, а и Асадови обавештајци раде боље него Авганистанци. Снимци из БПЛ и сателита ту играју мање важну улогу.

Већ деценијама није проблем погодити прецизно мету - ако знате где је.

 

----

 

Што се тиче цене технике, добар је пример цена домаћег М84. Производна цена је била 700 хиљада долара. Међутим пре тога је требало платити неких 180 милиона долара за лиценце, развој и алате, а такође и инвестирати у привреду по неким проценама и 2,9 милијарди долара (бог те пита колико је од тога било за сам тенк). Тако да за неких 600 направљених комада цена може да варира од 700 хиљада долара па све до 6 милиона, зависи како се рачуна.

За Русе је цена оне ракете најмања. Обзиром да паметна оружја имају кратак рок трајања, врло је могуће да су испуцали и нешто што би отписали за коју годину.

 

[Prospero]

^^ Ovaj Hasan ima oštro oko

 

 

 

In each raid, there were three Russian Mig-31 jets

 

[theanswer]

2nd day of large Russian backed Syrian army offensive north of Hama still ongoing. I spoke 2 witnesses on ground, this what I know

 

Yday ground attack on Kfarnabudah by SAA. Attack repelled. Today SAA again attacked, not w/ ground forces but shelling &Russian helicopters>

 

Kfarnabudah is held by Jaish alFatah, a Jihadi coalition. Russian helicopter attacks led 2 nr of deaths, some say 30 killed (unconfirmed) >

 

Opposition groups say they downed 2helicopters near Kfranabudah. Not confirmed. I havent seen evidence, reports from ground contradictory >

 

As I type, SAA attacking from Ma'an towards strategic hill Tell Sukayk. Opposition trying 2defend area

 

Acc to witness on ground, TAlSukayk-area defended by Furqa al-Wusta (Western backed FSA), Ahrar Sham, Jash AlFateheen, Nusra, Jund al-Aqsa >

 

Conclusion> 2nd day SAA offensive N-Hama: no major change front yet. SAA fears TOW, opp worries about Rus helicopters & limited number TOW <

 

https://twitter.com/jenanmoussa

[vathra]

jel to usraše totalno ovu ofanzivu? Kolko sam mogao da pohvatam po netu, manje više silnu tehniku i ljudstvo spališe - i ništa? 

 

 

Moraće tu izgleda mali zeleni™ da se umešaju, od ovih ostalih nema ni go krivak. 

 

Видео снимци уништења тенкова који су се појавили ових дана углавном приказују дејство по статичним тенковима, максимално у заседи, а ретко у борби. Могли су да буду снимљени и раније, а тешко да су из рејона борби.

 

Асадове снаге су напредовале пристојно на потезу Хама-Хомс. Очигледно хоће да елиминишу избочину коју држе побуњеници, а онда и цео тај џеп. Видећемо наредних дана како ће се то одвијати. Некако подсећа на Дебаљцево са почетка године...

 

Ударима по складиштима и нападима авијације на комуникације је доста погоршана позиција побуњеника. Имају прилично велики фронт, а недовољно снага за одбрану.

Чак и без пуно додатне пешадије (мислим на Русе и Иранце), може да уследи колапс побуњеника. И Американци су освојили на сличан начин Авганистан 2001, а овде је ситуација знатно повољнија по коалицију Асад-Русија-Иран.

Оно што је велико питање после тога је како ће домаће становништво да гледа на нову/стару власт и да ли ће бити могуће герилске акције.

 

[Prospero]

Muke se geografijom, "Krimsko more" 

 

[Anonymous]

ko ne ume da objasni ne shvata ni sam 

 

Reč starca je mudra, ali srce deteta je čisto.

[mackenzie]

Zanimljiva tvrdnja Al Mayadeen TV:

 

[Gandalf]

http://warontherocks.com/2015/09/ahrar-al-shams-revisionist-jihadism/

 

Amid the bloodshed of Syria, one group, Ahrar al-Sham, has begun to challenge the premises of the Salafi-jihadist ideology that underwrites the actions of groups like al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. What does it mean for the unceasing war?