Oilopoly

[Eraserhead]

Volim da pratim RT. To je jedna respektabilna medijska kuca.

[Ravanelli]

slupali dolar :fejspalm: nafta se malo oporavila

[Korki]

То са резервама Русије зависи од цене нафте. Ако оде до $80 и више руске резерве нагло скачу, и вероватно их имају највише на свету, барем по причи Росњефта. Ту се укључују северна мора и нафта из шкриљаца(највеће на свету), битумен итд.

Ове резерве стоје на овој вредности ако нафта остане на $40 или ниже али то тешко може да се деси јер ће многе земље попут САД и Канаде почети са падом, што се већ дешава, те ће се тржиште балансирати.

Да би схватили ред величине тих руских резерви од 29 милијарди тона, тренутно докаазне САД резерве износе нешто мање од 6 милијарди тона. Њихова производња је врло блиска тако да ако ова цена остане САД производња ће значајно да падне много пре руских и то значајно те ће тржиште да повећа цене.

 

Thus, the magnitude of potentially recoverable gas resources in Russia is estimated at 90 - 220 trillion cubic meters which is more than twice than the resource base of the United States (40-62 trillion cubic meters).

Though less recognized, the situation is similar with the oil resources. The potentially recoverable oil resources in Russia are estimated at 367-506 billion barrels which is significantly more than the capacity of not only the US but also Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia.

http://www.rosneft.com/news/today/07092015.html

 

Ова најнижа вредност је око 50 милијарди тона нафте. Али ово све зависи од цене нафте.

[bigvlada]

 

 

 

 

 

Volim da pratim RT. To je jedna respektabilna medijska kuca.

 

 

 

Učili su od najboljih.  -_-

[borris_]

To je jedna respektabilna medijska kuca™

[Eraserhead]

Je l bankrotstvo SunEdisona za ovu temu ili neku drugu...

[Ravanelli]

Udri druze!

[hazard]

Rus kaze - Amerikanci - kao proizvodjac nafte - sada imaju najveci uticaj na, da ne kazem kontrolisu, svetsko trziste nafte. Korki, sta cemo sad

 

https://www.rt.com/business/318527-rosneft-sechin-oil-shale-us/

 

 

 

OPEC no longer oil market key regulator, US is - Rosneft CEO

 

The main role in regulating the oil market has transferred from the Saudi Arabia-dominated OPEC cartel to the US, says Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin. Shale deposits are not the only factor, he added.

According to Sechin, besides shale, the US has “all the factors influencing the development of a competitive oil market.” This means financial resources, financial derivatives, stock exchanges, a developed system of pipelines and a large number of contractors working in the country, he said at the Russia Calling forum in Moscow on Tuesday.

 

READ MORE: OPEC says join the club, Russia not interested – Rosneft CEO

 

"So, the medium-term prospects for the world oil market will be determined by the market in the US,” Sechin added.

 

As for Saudi Arabia, Sechin says it’s been actively dumping and cutting prices.

 

"In terms of competition, we are seeing now that Saudi Arabia has even come on the Polish market, where it has never been; it’s supplying raw materials through Gdansk. Actively dumping,” he said.

 

"The struggle for market share is one of the factors affecting oil prices. This is reflected in the budget revenues,” Sechin added.

 

He also said that production costs for Russian oil companies are the lowest in the world - $4 per barrel. At Rosneft the figure is even lower - $2.80, which is the best in the world, according to Sechin.

 

Rosneft has turned to a one-year budget instead of a conventional three-year one due to global economic uncertainty. However, the situation is stable, “we have a liquidity reserve that allows our current activities,” the CEO concluded.

 

[Prospero]

The Era of Cheap Oil Is Coming to an End
Prices have been low for more than two years. With demand rising and supply falling, that’s all beginning to change.

 

• By Keith Johnson
• June 14, 2016
• keith.johnson
• @KFJ_FP

In the past two years, a flood of crude has pushed down oil prices, battering corporate balance sheets and wreaking havoc with budgets in oil-dependent countries from Russia to Iraq.

That’s beginning to change thanks to the double whammy of rising demand and pinched supplies of oil — especially unplanned outages and disruptions in places like Canada, Nigeria, and Libya. Expect prices to start rising in response.

On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency said it expects the oil market to be balanced for the rest of the year, meaning the world will pump roughly as much oil as it consumes. That should nudge prices higher. Oil is currently trading around $50 a barrel, double the nadir reached earlier this year.

If the oil market is getting closer to a normal balance of supply and demand, it’s no thanks to major producers inside OPEC — especially Saudi Arabia — that have kept pumping with abandon even as prices plummeted.

Rather, the market can thank global disruptions of oil supplies, which in May reached their highest level in five years. The production declines were in large part due to wildfires in Canada that knocked some oil sands production in Alberta offline.

Other oil-producing regions have also been reeling: A new generation of militants in the Niger delta in southern Nigeria are targeting crude production facilities there, while Libya’s continued political disintegration has kept oil production and exports there at a fraction of prewar levels. Other major oil-producing countries, especially Venezuela, face severe economic and political stresses; plenty of energy experts figure Venezuelan exports could tumble sharply later this year.

Altogether, those outages, attacks, and wildfires knocked 3.7 million barrels of oil production a day offline. That helped push oil prices to their yearly high. For the past two years, the world was so awash in oil that the market could afford to shrug off the virtual disappearance of the Libyan oil industry, for example, or watch the return of Nigerian rebels with equanimity. Now, though, outages are set to cause bigger ripples in a tighter market.

“We aren’t yet back to the situation where every potential supply hiccup puts a couple of dollars on the price, but the market is definitely awake to geopolitics again,” said Richard Mallinson, an analyst at Energy Aspects, a consultancy in London.

While the wildfires in Canada, which at their worst took off more than 1 million barrels a day of production, are winding down, disruptions in Nigeria and Libya are likely to be long lasting, the IEA said. And those outages have done what OPEC chose not to do: Close the spigot a bit.

“The spate of disruptions have helped put a more solid floor under crude prices and accelerated the rebalancing in global supply and demand,” said Robert McNally, founder and president of the Rapidan Group, an energy consultancy.
Nigeria is a particular concern because of both the scope of the disruption — vandalism and attacks knocked out close to 1 million barrels per day of production in May — and because the new generation of militants seems unwilling to negotiate with the government as their predecessors did. Mallinson said Nigeria faces the “potential for prolonged disruptions of the type seen in 2006-09,” when militants systematically targeted foreign oil companies and their production in Nigeria.

Those outages by themselves wouldn’t necessarily be cause for concern, or at least they haven’t been for the past two years. But now that demand for oil is also rebounding — that’s particularly true in India as well as in the world’s two-biggest oil consumers, China and the United States — there’s less slack in the system if something goes wrong.

And that’s especially the case given Saudi Arabia’s flat-out oil production policy. The kingdom is still pumping oil at near-record levels, producing 10.2 million barrels a day. That means Saudi Arabia has a lot less ability to “surge” oil production to meet global needs; the more it pumps on a daily basis, the less spare production capacity there is inside OPEC.

And since spare capacity is essentially the shock absorber for the global oil market, the world could soon be in for a very bumpy ride.

“Prices will be jumpier as well, spiking in response to disruptions or the risk of disruptions, given Saudi Arabia’s very low spare production capacity,” McNally said.
 

[Ravanelli]

Ne uzima ameriku u obzir, koja je osnov dolaska do balansa. Cim je nafta dosla iznad 45 odmah su aktivirali busilice. Dug je put do balansa. 2, 3 god, otprilike

Edited June 15, 2016 by Ravanelli

[Korki]

А, на основу чега тврдиш да сада нема баланса? Тврдим да ни тај изнад, ни ти, ни ја, немамо појма о правом стању понуде/потржње на нафтном тржишту.

Edited June 15, 2016 by Korki

[Ravanelli]

mislim da će ovo neulaganje u proizvodnju i održavanje (svi su posekli investicije) sa jedne strane i rast potražnje dovesti do deficita u sledećih par godina godine što će rezultirati povećanjem cene nafte

sami američki proizvođači pokazuju da im cene nafte 45+$/bbl znače nešto jer očigledno reaguju na to, što se vidi po rig countu koji objavljuje baker hughes.

od toga kako će se ta dva uskladiti ponajviše zavisi budućnost.

 

tako da situacija da se situacija da cena može da duže vremena na istom/sličnom nivou (balans) još nije dostignuta i da ćemo je gledati još promena cena u sledećim godinama

 

e sada, ovo je sve zaključak iščitavanja zvaničnih izveštaja i analiza koji uzimaju u obzir dostupne podatke.

ako ti pak imaš neko drugo tumačenje iznesi ga.

Edited June 16, 2016 by Ravanelli

[Korki]

Не постоје праве анализе тржишта нафте јер нико не зна колико је стварно нафте на тржишту у сваком тренутку. Примера ради, нико не зна колико нафте се извози из Персијског залива већ се узимају извори из друге руке, процене, преко праћења транспорта танкера. Да ствар буде гора, независне, међународно признате резерве нафте не постоје, нарочито не на Блиском истоку. Зато имаш да свака организација излази са другачијим подацима за укупну светску производњу и светску потражњу, резереве, будућу производњу/потражњу. Ја могу да кажем да сада не постоји никакав вишак нафте на тржишту већ да је то манипулација, и да нпр. САД користе своје стратешке резерве и слично, и нико не може то да оспори са независно потврђеним подацима да то није тако.

Руси су пре годину дана тражили да се на нивоу УН направи тело који ће пратити глобално кретање тражишта нафте, јер је најважнија сировина за светску економију. Наравно, ту идеју САД и Арапи нису подржали.

 

Што се тиче САД, њима је производња пала, по подацима њихове EIA, за скоро милиона барела у односу на април 2015, то је пуно, да не говорим о огромном броју банкрота. Главни разлог за пад цене нафте до данас, нису САД, већ Саудијци и Ирак током 2015 и Иран у 2016. Да они нису заједно подигли производњу, заједно, за око 2 милиона барела дневно, тржиште би било у мањку нафте у односу на потражњу. Наравно, као што сам рекао, ово су само нагађања без независне потврде. САД и да почну да поново буше треба ће минимум 6 месеци да засутаве само пад и стабилизују производњу, без да користе стратешке резрве, или да користе увоз из Ирака или Курдистана а то пријављују као своју производњу, што умеју да ураде.

Свако ко је говорио да је производња из шкриљаца неодрживи економски балон је добио потврду. Узгред, да цена нафте није скочила САД би ушле у економске проблеме пред изборе.

Edited June 16, 2016 by Korki

[Ravanelli]

mislim da to zahteva jako visoke nivoe zavere, pogotovo između amerike i saudijaca

čak i da je tako, da li bi se amerika odlučila da ubija svoju shale industriju zarad zauzdavanja rusa, venecuele i ostalih proizvođača koji im ne odgovaraju, rizikujući velike potrese u zemljama gde to možda ne bi želeli (nigerija)?

a saudijci da potroše veći deo svojih rezervi na neefikasnu državu i sada manično traže put da smanje zavisnost od nafte?

[Korki]

То ти наводим као пример јер нико појма нема о стварном стању на тржишту.

Што се тиче Саудијаца, на свашта су они спремни када их се притисне, један пример

 

 

Behind Saudi Arabia’s 41-Year U.S. Debt Secret                                                                                                                                                                                                                      The goal: neutralize crude oil as an economic weapon and find a way to persuade a hostile kingdom to finance America’s widening deficit with its newfound petrodollar wealth. And according to Parsky, Nixon made clear there was simply no coming back empty-handed. Failure would not only jeopardize America’s financial health but could also give the Soviet Union an opening to make further inroads into the Arab world.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-05-30/the-untold-story-behind-saudi-arabia-s-41-year-u-s-debt-secret

 

Ово се дуго сматрало за теорију завере.