Oilopoly

[Eraserhead]

 

6 hours ago

 

Aubrey McClendon, Ex-Head of Chesapeake Energy, Is Charged With Conspiracy

 

10 mins ago

 

Police: Former CEO of Chesapeake Aubrey McClendon killed in car accident

[Prospero]

Dobro se skrljao, teško će se naći neki tragovi

 

 

[Sestre Bronte]

Da li je bio vezan, šta kažu?

[Eraserhead]

Da li je bio vezan, šta kažu?

I ruke i noge

[Eraserhead]

Dobro se skrljao, teško će se naći neki tragovi

 

 

 

Inace jedna od ucionica u kojoj sam slusao predavanja prethodne dve godine se zove McClandon Auditorium. Bio je veliko ime na Dukeu.

Edited March 2, 2016 by Eraserhead

[Prospero]

Koliko love je kesnuo za endowment?

 

by Tapatalk

[Eraserhead]

Koliko love je kesnuo za endowment?

 

by Tapatalk

 

Zvanicno $6 miliona ali moguce da je i vise.

 

Inace ima tamo i zanimljivijih likova. Recimo Doug Breeden, ali da ne davim sada. :D

[Prospero]

IEA Says Oil Price May Have Bottomed as High-Cost Producers Cut

Grant Smith 

March 11, 2016 — 10:00 AM CET

 

Oil prices may have passed their lowest point as shrinking supplies outside OPEC and disruptions inside the group erode the global surplus, the International Energy Agency said.

Production outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will decline by 750,000 barrels a day this year, or 150,000 barrels a day more than estimated last month, the agency said. Markets are also being supported by output losses in Iraq and Nigeria, and as Iran restores production more slowly than planned following the end of international sanctions, it said.

 

 

“There are signs that prices might have bottomed out,” the Paris-based adviser to 29 countries said in its monthly market report on Friday. “For prices there may be light at the end of what has been a long, dark tunnel” as market forces are “working their magic and higher-cost producers are cutting output.”

 

Oil prices have recovered 50 percent from the 12-year lows reached in January as U.S. shale production retreats and as some OPEC members led by Saudi Arabia reached a tentative accord with Russia to maintain output at current levels. This “freeze” deal, while currently supporting prices, is unlikely to have a substantial impact on markets in the first half of the year, the IEA said.

 

Shifting View

The agency’s view on prices is a shift from last month’s report, in which it said that crude could sink further as the market remained “awash in oil.” Brent futures traded at about $40 a barrel in London on Friday.

 

The outlook for the balance of supply against demand in the first half is “essentially unchanged” from last month, the IEA said. World oil consumption will increase by 1.2 million barrels a day, helping to reduce the global surplus from 1.7 million barrels a day in the first half to 200,000 a day in the last six months of the year. Last month it projected the second-half surplus would be 300,000 a day. The agency repeated that it could lower the demand estimate as the price recovery curbs U.S. appetite for gasoline.

 

Inventories in the developed world contracted last month for the first time in a year from the “comfortable” levels recorded in January, according to the report.

 

Iran Return

The return of Iran after January’s nuclear agreement lifted sanctions on its oil trade “has been less dramatic than the Iranians said it would be” and further recovery will be “gradual,” the agency said. While the OPEC member vowed to restore 500,000 barrels a day as soon as sanctions ended, it instead boosted output by 220,000 barrels a day in February to 3.22 million, the highest in four years.

Production from OPEC’s 13 members slipped by 90,000 barrels a day to 32.61 million a day in February as the increases in Iran were countered by declines in Iraq, Nigeria and the United Arab Emirates. OPEC is still pumping 700,000 barrels a day more than the average amount required from the group this year, the IEA’s data shows.

About 600,000 barrels of Iraq’s exports have been halted by the closure of its northern export pipeline, while the suspension of Nigeria’s shipments of the Forcados grade -- amounting to 250,000 barrels a day -- “may be in place for some time.”

U.S. oil production will decline by 530,000 barrels a day this year as the price rout takes its toll on investment and drilling, the IEA said. The agency also lowered its supply outlook for Brazil and Colombia.

“Without an increase in demand expectations high cost oil suppliers will continue to bear the brunt of the market-clearing process,” the agency said. “It is clear that the current direction of travel is the correct one, although with a long way to go.”

 

[Korki]

Они углавном везе немају са прогнозама и често су политички мотивисане.

Примера ради, у децембру 2014 су давали прогнозе за свестку потрошњу у 2015

 

Friday 12 December 2014 15.40 GMT

The IEA said in its December monthly oil report that it was cutting its 2015 demand growth forecast by 230,000 barrels a day to 900,000

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/dec/12/oil-price-plunge-brent-crude-iea-forecasts-weaker-demand-2015

 

Да би у фебруару 2016, дошли прави подаци о потражи за нафтом у 2015, то није прогноза већ чињеница након сакупљених података

 

Having peaked, at a five-year high of 1.6 mb/d in 2015, global oil demand growth

 

https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/currentreport/

 

 

Промашај у процени у невроватних 70%.

То су радили јер су добилио наредбу из једне престонице да би смањили цену нафте као притисак на Русију, додуше то на крају није испало најбоље јер су САД упале у корпоративну рецесију па индустријска производња упала у рецесију итд.

Наравно, САД покушавају на сваки начин да контролишу цену нафте и производњу исте јер је то најважнија сировина модерног човека.(САД скоро сваке године потрошене из војног буџета око $100 милијарди на контролисање путева нафте и главног региона где се производи, неки то могу са доста мање због географије али то је нека друга прича)

 

Нафте може да оде и $100 за два месеца ако политички има воље јер је то изузетно важан ресурс да би се десило само економистима да се играју на берзи(не нарочито данас где HFT доминира). То је највише политизована сировина у трговини.

Али сама цене, економски гледано, треба да иде на неких $70-80, минимум, а колико видим Саудици желе да је сада сместе на неких $50, за почетак, али то доста зависи од политике, нпр. шта ће се дешавати у Сирији, али економски би они хтели на $50 до краја године и да полагано расте касније до неких $80 до 2020.

Edited March 13, 2016 by Korki

[borris_]

Pa ako je USA upala u problem i sve kontrolise, zasto ne vrate cijenu na podnosljiv nivo za njih?

[Korki]

Па враћају, мало су тестирали, берза почела нагло да пада па хајмо да стабилзујемо нафту преко нагле обајве минстра из УАЕ, да видиш како брзо скаче, за месец дана 50% скочила на WTI, као што су се и индекси опоравили.

Али кретање цене нафте IEA нема појме.

Руси покушавају да се скину са везе са брентом, урал се тргује на неких $2-3 испод брента. Руси су тражили транспарентност на тржишту, да се оснује на светском нивоу озбиљна организација која ће пратити нафту, САД то никада нису подржале, нити ће, као ни Арапи јер би морали да транспарентно прикажу своје резерве, које су проблематичне. Сада нико не зна колико нафте има на тржишту, има неколико агенција која свака даје своје прогнозе.

[Korki]

Где је 800 kb/d наводне превелике понуде?

 

Crude Mystery: Where Did 800,000 Barrels of Oil Go?

http://www.wsj.com/articles/crude-mystery-where-did-800-000-barrels-of-oil-go-1458207004

Crude Mystery: Where Did 800,000 Barrels of Oil Go? Last year, there were 800,000 barrels of oil a day unaccounted for by the International Energy Agency, the energy monitor that puts together data on crude supply and demand. Where these barrels ended up, or if they even existed, is key to an oil market that remains under pressure from the glut in crude.Here’s how a barrel of crude goes “missing” in the data. Last year, the IEA estimated that on average the world produced around 1.9 million barrels a day more crude than there was demand for. Of that crude, 770,000 barrels went into onshore storage while roughly 300,000 barrels were in transit on the seas or through pipelines. That left roughly 800,000 barrels a day unaccounted for in the data.

 

Једна занимљивост, последњи пут када је толико непостојећих барел било на тржишту је пред бомбардвање СРЈ, 1998

 

In 1998, the last time the number of missing barrels was so high, concern over the discrepancy reached the U.S. Congress.

 

Тада је Русија морала да тражи помоћ ММФ а ускоро је следило бомбардовање СРЈ. Чудне случајности али су се сада мало преварили у рачунању па умало да САД упадну у опасну кризу са дуговима иако је индустријска производња упала у рецесију а берза имала најгори старт године у скоро 100 година. Па може Башар да остане, нека га решава наредна администрација, иако је Обамина администрација 2012 тражила моменталан одлазак.

Кажу да се историја понаваља али као фарса.
 

Edited March 17, 2016 by Korki

[Prospero]

Da pakujem vodu i SDO u podrum?

[Eraserhead]

Running on empty: Russia has less than three decades of oil remaining

 

Russia will run out of oil by 2044, according to the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, with production beginning to decline in 2020.

 

“Our recoverable oil reserves are about 29 billion tons. These are the ones that could theoretically be extracted from the subsoil. Crude oil production (without condensate) preliminarily amounted to about 505 million tons in 2015. Such reserves will last for 57 years,” the head of the ministry Sergey Donskoy told Rg.ru.

 

“However, the volume of proved reserves (we know exactly their whereabouts, quantity and how to extract them), according to experts, is only half of that, about 14 billion tons. The proved reserves will last for only 28 years,” he added.

 

According to Donskoy, Russia’s oil production will inevitably start to decline by 2020. The share of hard to extract oil will grow, as traditional resources will start to deplete.

 

This will also make the extraction more expensive, he said. “That’s why we won’t stop the exploration work,” Donskoy added. 

 

Oil exploration is complicated by collapsing crude prices that have lost two-thirds of their value since 2014. However, Russian companies won’t cut back on exploration, which will remain at last year's level, the minister said.

 

"Rosneft…is focused on increasing the development drilling by 40 percent compared to last year. At the same time, the costs of land exploration will grow by almost 1.5 times,” he said. Donskoy added that Surgutneftegaz has no plans to reduce exploration activities, either, while Bashneft largely compensated the reduced extraction with increased stockpiles.

 

Russia also has big plans for Arctic drilling. In August, the country filed an application to expand the boundaries of its continental shelf in the region. The volumes may reach 5 billion tons of untapped oil and natural gas reserves worth as much as $30 trillion.

 

Donskoy said the application will be considered over three to five years, given its big volume. “The materials have been very well developed and give us every chance of approval of the application. Completed geological, geophysical and bathymetrical work is a serious scientific contribution to the study of the Arctic,” he said.

 

 

Edited March 17, 2016 by Eraserhead

[Sestre Bronte]

Da zivis u Rusiji, pa da te razumem. Ovako, ovo je jedno obicno tracenje, da ne idem dalje u detalje.