Econ&Fin What's Up

[Gospodin Slucaj]

...

Edited October 6, 2016 by Gospodin Slucaj

[Korki]

Овакве ствари су последица роботизације финансија-алгоритми. Ево сада се враћа на место где је све почело али је зато гомила људи завијена у црно. Видеће се ујутру да ли има жртава код брокера.

[bigvlada]

Нема то везе са економијом, футна се сада стабилизовала на 150-200 пипсева ниже, није то страшно. Проблем је што је пала за минут 500-1 000 пиписева а онда направила враћање скоро за толико. То је проблем.

 

Што се тиче саме економије,

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/04/britain-fastest-growing-g7-economy-imf-international-monetary-fund-brexit-vote

 

Autor se pravi lud, te prognoze su se zasnivale na tome da će britanski premijer aktivirati A50 maltene sutradan. Sve što smo od juna do sada videli su samo najave za fubar scenario ako odluče da izađu iz zajedničkog tržišta. 

[Korki]

Следећа вест није најбоља за нас, Русија постаје највећи извозник пшенице на свету, већи од САД и чаке целе ЕУ. Изузетно обара цену док они на расту количине немају проблем и најављују још већи раст. Пре 30 година Русија, тада СССР, је увозила пшеницу из СФРЈ, махом из Србије. Сада ни САД не могу то да прате и гасе производњу јер Русија врши дампинг на тржиштима која су јој ближа а највжанија попут Азије и Африке.

 

 

Russia Becomes a Grain Superpower as Wheat Exports Explode

 

• Rising investment and falling ruble help drive output
• Russia returning to wheat-export lead last held under Czars

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-06/russia-upends-world-wheat-market-with-record-harvest-exports

 

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Almost 25 years after watching the Dawn of Communism collective farm where he grew up land in the dustbin of history, Andrey Burdin is helping turn Russia into something the communists never could: a grain-export powerhouse.

Over the last few years, Burdin has tripled the size of his farm on the steppe near the Black Sea, winning prizes from the local government for how much wheat he’s produced from the rich soil here and pumping profits back into new tractors and sprayers.

His harvest this season will be a third bigger than what it was just five years ago, helping fuel an explosion in grain exports that has allowed Russia to displace longtime global leaders like the U.S. and European Union.

Long known for its oil and gas, Russia is now moving to retake leadership in the world wheat trade it last held when the Czars ruled. In the process, it’s reshaping the market for one of the world’s most important traded food products.

“People have started to think about the future,” said Burdin, 42 years old, new tractors lined up outside the window of his office. “Before, everyone just lived day to day.”

Farm Renaissance

He plans to buy a Deere & Co. sprayer for 20 million rubles ($311,000) to add to his fleet in time for planting next spring, he said.

From the Black Sea coast and the Volga River heartland to the sun-scorched steppes of Siberia, Russia’s farm belt is enjoying a renaissance, with grain at the leading edge. Turbocharged by the 45 percent drop in the ruble against the dollar over the last few years and bumper crops, local producers are crowding into export markets long dominated by big western players.

Last season, Russian topped the U.S. in wheat exports for the first time in decades and is expected to extend those gains to displace the EU from the top spot this year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Investors from local farmers to billionaire tycoons are pumping money into the business.

 

Russian wheat has crowded out U.S. supplies in Egypt, the world’s biggest buyer, and is gaining footholds in some other countries, such as Nigeria, Bangladesh and Indonesia. That’s four decades after the Soviet Union turned to U.S. shipments of wheat and corn to offset shortfalls in its own harvests. Over the last decade, Russia has been the biggest single source of growth in wheat exports, vital to meeting surging global demand.

“Russia will be among the top exporters for a long time, especially given the potential advances in productivity there,” said Tom Basnett, general manager at Market Check, a Sydney-based commodity consultant. “Other producers need to fight harder to maintain their traditional markets.”

The boom in Russia is attracting some of the world’s biggest trading houses, with Olam International Ltd., Cargill Inc. and Glencore Plc investing into everything from silos to export terminals.

Rich soil, government support and proximity to Black Sea ports for shipping means Russian costs can be as little as half those of major competitors supplying key import markets in the Middle East, according to researchers at Kansas State University.

Rivals Shift

Many growers in the U.S. and Europe have turned to higher-quality wheat to compete with the Russian supplies, which are mostly softer varieties that fetch lower prices. Some have also cut wheat plantings, which in the U.S. are expected to be the lowest next year since 1919, according to The Scoular Co., a Kansas grain supplier.

 

Limited storage capacity means most of the Russian crop is sold shortly after it’s harvested, further depressing prices. Moscow has also imposed export tariffs and even a ban in the last several years in an effort to keep domestic prices down, scaring foreign buyers. The 2010 ban sent prices skyrocketing in key markets like Egypt, fueling unrest that contributed to a revolution.

The price of Russian wheat for export from Black Sea ports dropped to the lowest in at least six years in July and was last at $169 a metric ton as of Sept. 30, according to the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies. Prices have dropped 7 percent this year.

But exports have been growing since Russia first returned in volume to the global wheat market in 2002. Over the first seven months of this year, farm and food exports were 5.5 percent of Russia’s total, still far behind top-ranked oil and gas but the highest share in at least 15 years and more than big earners like weapons, according to official data.

“With our nature and climate, it’s our destiny to be an exporter,” said Arkady Zlochevsky, president of the Russian Grain Union, an industry group.

Farmers trace the roots of the rebound to the Kremlin’s move a decade ago to allow land to be bought and sold freely. That set off a wave of investment in new equipment, fertilizers and expansion of farms into lands long left fallow. Government subsidies and the ruble devaluation, along with good weather, have added to harvests in recent years.

Burdin was granted five hectares of land for his own use in the early 1990s, when his collective farm collapsed in the wake of the demise of the Soviet Union. After working as a hired hand, he struck out on his own in 2005. He traded his old Lada for a used Russian tractor. He said he barely earned enough for food. “It was hard when we started out.”

Now he drives a late-model Ford pickup. His fleet includes a half-dozen imported tractors and four combines, along with a German machine to spread the fertilizer that’s helped him to victory in local wheat-yields contests. He owns 200 hectares (500 acres) of land and rents another 1,500.

Farm Riches

A few miles away, Viktor Borodaev, 64, said he and other farmers don’t deserve all the credit for the recent boom. “We got a lot of help from God and nature,” he said, referring to the favorable weather that’s yielded bumper crops in recent years.

On the 40,000 hectares of fields at the Tselina farm company he runs, technology has also played a role. New tractors with GPS work 24 hours a day, with three shifts of drivers switching off. Profit margins were as high as 90 percent last year and earnings should be higher this year, he said.

Last week, Agriculture Minister Alexander Tkachev reported to President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin, predicting the best harvest in 25 years and forecasting it could grow another 20 percent over the next decade or so.

“Exports give us a flow of cash, hard currency, from which our farm producers get rich,” said Tkachev, whose family is a major owner of farms and agricultural land in southern Russia.

 

 

Ипак треба рећи да је ЕУ лоша ове године због лоше године у Француској али Русија најаваљује 20% већу производњу у наредним годинама, то ће извшрити велики притисак на цену пшенице а то ће утицати и на Србију.

Edited October 7, 2016 by Korki

[Dr Arslanagić]

Pa dobro, ovo nije ništa novo, ko je pratio zna koliko Rusi ulažu u poljoprivredu. 

[MancMellow]

Следећа вест није најбоља за нас, Русија постаје највећи извозник пшенице на свету, већи од САД и чаке целе ЕУ. Изузетно обара цену док они на расту количине немају проблем и најављују још већи раст. Пре 30 година Русија, тада СССР, је увозила пшеницу из СФРЈ, махом из Србије. Сада ни САД не могу то да прате и гасе производњу јер Русија врши дампинг на тржиштима која су јој ближа а највжанија попут Азије и Африке.

 

 

 

Ипак треба рећи да је ЕУ лоша ове године због лоше године у Француској али Русија најаваљује 20% већу производњу у наредним годинама, то ће извшрити велики притисак на цену пшенице а то ће утицати и на Србију.

 

znaci isplatilo bi se da im mi, BiH i Makedonija uvedemo sankcije?  ^_^

[Korki]

Могу да се уведу санкције али ће то да се плати извозом и увозом сировина од којих зависимо из Русије, док они не зависе од Србије.

Али то овде није проблем, ми имамо довољно пшенице за нас, проблем је наш  извоз тј. цена извоза пшенице.

[Prospero]

Why did the pound fall so fast?

Theories range from fat fingers to algorithms and options expiry

 

The British pound plunged from $1.26 against the dollar to a little over $1.18 in two minutes — an extraordinary move in normal market conditions. What is equally extraordinary, however, is the difficulty in explaining how and why it happened.

What time did it happen?

Depending where you are, it was just after 7pm in New York, 7am in Hong Kong and Singapore, 8am in Tokyo, or 10am in Sydney. Time zones matter because they have a bearing on the liquidity in the forex markets, particularly in Asia which has no single trading centre. But what really matters are the precise minutes in which the trading took place.

And the exact minutes are?

In the Hong Kong/Singapore timezone, 7.07am to 7.09am. In the 60 seconds from 7.07am, the pound moved from $1.26 through $1.25 to a low of $1.203. Between $1.26 and $1.25, traders say the move was orderly. But when it tumbled through $1.24 “that was when all hell broke loose”, according to one banker.

The low was $1.1819 at 7.09am, based on Reuters data. It took a further 30 minutes for the pound to regain $1.24 — during which time activity was fairly steady as traders regained composure after that unnerving tumble.

What are the possible explanations for why it happened?

1) It was fat-fingered traders or computers

Immediate finger-pointing centred on the likelihood of a “fat-finger” trade, where someone typed the wrong number in an order. These are not uncommon. Another theory is that it was a glitch in an algorithm used to automate trades — along the lines of the 2010 US stock market “flash crash” or the 2014 spike in US Treasuries.

If it was a fat finger, then the market convention is that the counterparties will agree to wipe it out and it will be scrubbed from the records within hours. The fact that has not happened yet makes a fat finger less likely, but watch this space.

2) It was timed to take advantage of low liquidity

There is no proof it was deliberate, but if someone wanted to try moving the market sharply, then just after New Yorkers have hit the bars and while Hong Kongers and Singaporeans are sipping their first coffees would be the perfect time. Sydney and Tokyo were up and running, but Singapore is the region’s biggest foreign exchange centre.

3) It was connected to options expiries

Friday is the day forex options tend to expire and this can cause extreme trading moves if the writers of those options — banks — suddenly need to hedge themselves against a big drop in a currency. Based on data from DTCC, the clearing and settlement provider, the biggest group of expiring sterling-dollar options was at the $1.25 level, with a notional $1.23bn outstanding. In other words, the sudden slide in the pound below $1.25 triggered a scramble by writers of options to sell the pound and protect themselves from losses.

4) It was due to stop-loss orders below $1.26

This is a perennial market explanation to cover almost all sharp moves with no clear cause. Investors leave orders with their banks to reduce or close out their positions at pre-agreed levels — to mitigate the risk of a sharp move when they are, say, asleep. The risk is that a build-up of orders at the same level exacerbates a price move when they are all triggered simultaneously.

5) It was François Hollande

The French president has taken a tough stance over Brexit, according to a reportpublished by the Financial Times at about 7.07am Hong Kong time. Many trading algorithms scrape news websites for breaking stories, so it is possible the article was picked up by one attuned to pound/Brexit risks, which then traded on its view of the information.

Sterling bashers have once again got the upper hand as the UK seems to swing towards a messy divorce from the EU. Frederik Ducrozet of Pictet Wealth Management talks about the implications with Katie Martin.

However, traders contacted by the Financial Times put the exact start of the pound’s move at 7 minutes and 3 seconds past the hour, and the FT’s Hollande story was not published until 7 minutes and 13 seconds past.

Why don’t we know precisely what happened?

The forex market is not a single market, but a collection of trading systems across different countries and time zones. There is no single central repository of information. Providers of data and trading such as Reuters and Bloomberg quote different lows and different prices at different times. Fat-finger trades tend to go public at some point especially if carried out by a bank, but there is no obligation on an algorithm-based hedge fund, for example, to claim responsibility.

What happens next?

More sterling weakness beckons, say traders. The pound has been under pressure all week since Theresa May addressed the Conservative party conference. Even before the pound’s overnight slide, Goldman Sachs predicted a further 5 per cent decline in sterling’s trade-weighted value over the next three months, which would take the pound down to $1.20. The pound recovered quickly from its shock move lower, but recovered only to about $1.24 against the dollar, not its pre-plunge level of $1.26. That suggests investors may not think $1.18 is the right level just yet, but they believe the pound will keep heading lower for now.

 

[MancMellow]

Могу да се уведу санкције али ће то да се плати извозом и увозом сировина од којих зависимо из Русије, док они не зависе од Србије.

Али то овде није проблем, ми имамо довољно пшенице за нас, проблем је наш  извоз тј. цена извоза пшенице.

 

znam, zato i kazem, zato sto dobar deo zitarica izvozimo u Makedoniju i BiH, zato sam namerno naveo njih. A trenutno pokusavamo (uz pomoc UN i EBRD) da se probijemo u Egipat i Kinu. 

[MancMellow]

What happens next?

More sterling weakness beckons, say traders. The pound has been under pressure all week since Theresa May addressed the Conservative party conference. Even before the pound’s overnight slide, Goldman Sachs predicted a further 5 per cent decline in sterling’s trade-weighted value over the next three months, which would take the pound down to $1.20. The pound recovered quickly from its shock move lower, but recovered only to about $1.24 against the dollar, not its pre-plunge level of $1.26. That suggests investors may not think $1.18 is the right level just yet, but they believe the pound will keep heading lower for now.

 

 

 

UBS predvidja paritet sa evrom 2017

[Prospero]

Odlično, znači da će im pojeftiniti izvoz taman toliko da nadomeste malo zajebaniji ulaz na zajedničko tržište

Sad, što neće moći baš toliko na more - bummer

Edited October 7, 2016 by Prospero

[Peter Fan]

No biggie.

 

Ako ne mogu Britts na toplo more, doci ce toplo more do njih. Globalno zagrijavanje ce se postarati za to.

[Dr Arslanagić]

Odlično, znači da će im pojeftiniti izvoz taman toliko da nadomeste malo zajebaniji ulaz na zajedničko tržište

Sad, što neće moći baš toliko na more - bummer

 

[bigvlada]

Odlično, znači da će im pojeftiniti izvoz taman toliko da nadomeste malo zajebaniji ulaz na zajedničko tržište

Sad, što neće moći baš toliko na more - bummer

 

Još da srede problemčić sa uvoznim komponentama i sirovinama koje su sada skuplje i na konju su. Ovde ne uzimam u obzir činjenicu da će i jedno i drugo od 2019 nabavljati pod drugačijim (čitaj nepovoljnijim) uslovima. 

[Prospero]

^^

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7QN1GZlF8c