Opšti topik o EU (ex kriza Evrozone)

[MancMellow]

a jel ima negde the report :)

[Prospero]

Mislim da je ovo:

 

http://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/cps/rde/xbcr/SID-40E3C078-5D1D2630/bst_engl/xcms_bst_dms_40210_40211_2.pdf

[MancMellow]

Hvala. Zaključak - EU works. 

[Budja]

Glavna ideja ovde je da je single market povecao integraciju sto je povecalo GDP.

 

Metod objasnjen na strani 4 pokazuje da takav cvrst stav koji ukazuje na uzrocnost a ne puku kroelaciju ne bi mogao da bude objavljen ni u jednom pristojnom akademskom casopisu.

 

Cross-country regression, uz par drugih control variables pored indeksa ekonomske integracije nije uzrocnost. 

 

Prvo, studija ne navodi koje se sve varijable koriste u regresiji.

 

Drugo, meni napamet pada jedan robustness test - koliko je nivo integracije i porasta  GDP rezultat globalizovane ekonomije, a ne nuzno EU single market?

To je jos bizarnije imajuci u vidu da se ma kraju izvestaja spominje drugi izvestaj koji govori upravo o tome:

Policy Brief 2014: Who Profits Most From Globalization? (strana 8)

 

gde se koristi, koliko razumem, vrlo slicna varijabla onoj koja mera ekonomsku integraciju.

 

Trece, fali tabela da vidimo kako se kretao rast ekonomske integracije u periodu 1992-2012 i da li se promene, pored vec pomenute globalizacije, mogu objasniti i nekim drugim promenama politika u tom periodu.

 

 

Cenim da su podaci javno dostupni, bilo bi lepo da neko ponovi studiju uz dodatnu analizu, bio bi to jedan lep master rad.

[Budja]

Hvala. Zaključak - EU works. 

 

Ne, zakljucak iako vrlo labavo utemeljen, je da single market works. To je teza sa nesto drugacijim implikacijama.

[Roger Sanchez]

Potpore za sanaciju i restrukturiranje ubrajaju se među vrste državnih potpora kojima se najviše narušava tržišno natjecanje. Jasno je utvrđeno da uspješni sektori gospodarstva bilježe rast produktivnosti ne zbog toga što svim poduzetnicima prisutnim na tržištu raste produktivnost, već zato što učinkovitiji i tehnološki napredniji poduzetnici ostvaruju rast na štetu onih koji su manje učinkoviti ili koji imaju zastarjele proizvode. Izlaskom s tržišta manje učinkovitih poduzetnika omogućuje se rast njihovih učinkovitijih konkurenata te se sredstva vraćaju na tržište gdje se mogu primijeniti u produktivnije svrhe. Potporama za sanaciju i restrukturiranje može se znatno usporiti gospodarski rast u predmetnim sektorima zbog njihova utjecaja na taj proces.

:fashisto:

Edited July 31, 2014 by Roger Sanchez

[MancMellow]

Ne, zakljucak iako vrlo labavo utemeljen, je da single market works. To je teza sa nesto drugacijim implikacijama.

 

A dobro, ali nama je to svejedno tj na isto dođe

[Muwan]

Google Tax

 

Nisam bio siguran na kom topiku ovo da ostavim ali pošto se radi o napadu ludila koji je za sada zabeležen u Nemačkoj i Španiji onda bi ovaj topik mogao da bude prikladan.

[MancMellow]

Savremena varijanta odgovora na pitanje zašto španska (i nemačka) imperija nije uspela, a neke druge jesu 

[Gricko]

Nova, prelazna, kazu proevropska vlada u Sofiji. Podrzali Kristalininu kandidaturu u komisiji. MInistar energetike americki covek. 

[Prospero]

Lekcija iz grčke reforme (pokušaja?) javnog sektora:
 

The problems in the Greek public sector cannot be solved simply by reducing the size of salaries or the numbers of staff



Since the beginning of the financial crisis, Greece has implemented a number of deep spending cuts, including a reduction in the size of salaries and numbers of staff employed within the Greek public sector. Fotis Zygoulis and Elina Zagou write that although these reforms have had the intended effect of cutting spending, they have not been accompanied by effective policies geared toward improving overall levels of efficiency and the quality of services provided to citizens and businesses. They argue that this is having a negative impact on economic growth and that reforms which rationalise existing administrative structures should be a key priority.

Greece in 2014 is now in the seventh year of a recessionary economic cycle which has generated adverse social, economic and political effects. The Eurozone crisis served as a catalyst for structural reforms, with the country signing agreements on international and European aid that had as a prerequisite a number of radical changes concerning the organisation and functioning of public administration. The financial crisis also exposed the weaknesses within the Greek political system regarding clientelism. The dominance of the patronage system characterised during the previous years both the recruitment of public servants and the public administration’s attitude towards society and the economy.

Greece’s economy in the last 40 years was based on excessive consumption, and external and internal public borrowing. While European funding had been channelled primarily toward consumption, without taking into account the necessary investments, the country’s economic development and infrastructure, or the improvement of good governance, the state was overloaded with an army of public servants. An unequal distribution of the public administration’s structures emerged which resulted in wastage of public expenditure, increasing loans, a huge debt and a public sector which gradually became less efficient overall.

The peculiarity of the Greek public sector is the large size and exorbitant public expenditure on wages, but also the low efficiency along with extremely low quality of services for citizens. However, the efforts of Greece since the end of 1990 to introduce Economic and Monetary Union generated quantitative restrictions on employment policy in public administration.

Recruitment had been diminished, and in many cases the replacement of the outgoing staff was limited to replacing staff on a ‘one to three’ or ‘one to five’ basis (i.e. for every three or five people leaving, one would be hired). Nevertheless, these measures were applied unevenly rather than across the whole public sector and in some cases were gradually abandoned. Since 2009, however, due to the Fiscal Memorandum with the Troika, a strict staff replacement rule in the public sector of ‘one to five’ has been applied. The Medium Term Financial Strategy Government Program extended this rule for the years 2012-2015 and “strengthened” it to ‘one to ten’ in 2011.

In recent years an attempt was made to adapt to the Troika. So there has been the beginning of a series of serious reforms led by the Ministry of Administrative Reform in order to evaluate both the structure and staff of the public service, to remove structures that have nothing to offer society or which coexist with other structures sharing the same powers, and to evaluate the public administration’s personnel. Also in the framework of the Memorandum with the Troika, traditional public structures have been abolished under the ‘mobility’ project in order to fill positions of government, which were in an emergency state.

The economic and administrative restructuring project in Greece involves five key steps. First, it involves the reduction of the operating costs of central government by 200 million euros. Second, it includes the reduction of the public investment programme by 400 million euros. Third, there is the introduction of the ‘one to ten’ rule concerning the recruitment of staff in public enterprises. Fourth, the project includes a reduction of staff salaries in the public sector of 22 per cent. And finally, it involves the overall reduction of 150,000 civil servants.

But the crisis has worsened the economic situation of civil servants, with the upcoming reduction of the average wage and the number of salaried personnel by the state budget. The simultaneous reduction in salaries has made the public sector unattractive to the existing personnel. Moreover, the wider impact on human resources has inevitably led to a drop in morale and a reduction of the productivity of employees, alongside an association with increased incidences of corruption. The trend in the overall unemployment rate is shown in the Chart below.

Chart: Unemployment rate in Greece and in the EU (2002–2013)


Note: Figures are from Eurostat

The proposals which have been implemented during the last six years concern management by objectives (suspension and recruitment limitation), meritocracy in selection and promotion procedures, enhancing mobility, a simplified pay system with a single payroll, and the redesign of education systems for public officials.

The Greek financial crisis is a window of opportunity to promote reforms. The decrease of the average wage and the number of salaried individuals through the state budget has been the main priority over the last three years. The cutting of salaries (on average by more than 35 per cent), and the reduction in the number of individuals being paid through the state budget by around 9.9 per cent (76,408 persons) in relation to 2010 has led to a massive exodus of Greek public servants into retirement.

The reduction in the number of civil servants in Greece has not been accompanied by radical changes related to the modernisation of HR management. The lack of goal setting, performance measurement indicators and the continued patronage of the State with regard to the appointment of heads of organisational units in the Greek government means the reforms have not contributed to an improvement in the quality of services offered by Greek civil servants.

The OECD recently produced a report on the consequences of the reduction in salaries of civil servants on the Greek economy. The report clearly shows that the salaries of civil servants by 2010 were disproportionately higher than those of their colleagues in the private sector contributing thereby to a high level of inequality among workers. However the salaries of civil servants were directed mostly toward private consumption. For this reason, the reduction in the salaries of civil servants affected both private sector wages and the general economic cycle.

The crisis has dramatically affected all elements of Greece’s public administration. This includes the decision-making system, and structures for the implementation and monitoring of public policies which, because of their systemic nature, may be considered as “standing weaknesses” of the entire framework for the organisation and the functioning of public administration. Problems such as poor utilisation and misallocation of human resources, the absence of modern methods, techniques and tools administration and a lack of public sector coordination have led to the current undesirable situation within the state.

The problems within the Greek public sector are neither determined nor solely based on its size and cannot be solved simply through a reduction in staff or the salaries of public employees. The most important task today is to upgrade the quality of services provided to citizens and businesses through a rationalisation of administrative structures. The administrative burden of the operation of the Greek public bureaucracy is seriously affecting economic growth – more than the reduction of the salaries of Greek civil servants.

[stena]

EU i Kanada su dogovorile zonu slobodne trgovine. Sporazum ce biti formalizovan u septembru. 

[Korki]

Италија поново у рецесији, Немачка успорава

 

 

Italy Recession, German Orders Signal Euro-Area Struggle

Italy Recession, German Orders Signal Euro-Area Struggle

Italy unexpectedly returned to recession and German factory orders dropped the most since 2011 as political tensions and slowing global growth threaten the euro area’s recovery.

Italy’s economy shrank 0.2 percent in the second quarter after contracting 0.1 percent in the previous three months. German orders slid 3.2 percent in June from May. Both reports were worse than forecast by economists in separate Bloomberg News surveys.

German Outlook

While Germany has so far led the regional recovery, it is feeling the pain of increasing political tension. The European Union agreed last week on its widest-ranging sanctions yet over Russia’s backing of rebels in eastern Ukraine. Russia counts Germany as its biggest trading partner in Europe.

 

[Budja]

Nisu se bas pretrgli.

 

 

The EU announces emergency funding of 125m euros (£100m) for fruit and vegetable growers hit by Russian sanctions targeting Western food.

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28834170

[Prospero]

Tusk za šefa E. Saveta, F. Mogerini za naslednicu Eštonove.

 

 

by TT