Opšti topik o EU (ex kriza Evrozone)

[Zaz_pi]

Ed Conway, economics reporter at Sky News:If capital controls get put properly in place, it’s the end of this monetary system as we know it – at the very least it’s probably the end of Cyprus’s place within it. A euro within Cyprus will suddenly be worth significantly less than a euro in Germany or, for that matter, Greece. Or to put it in more economic, and slightly more doomsday terms, consider this: there’s a pretty fundamental rule in economic policy that nation states must choose two (but not three) of the following: independent monetary policy (in other words the power to set your own interest rates), a fixed exchange rate and free movement of capital. Economists call this the “impossible trinity” or trilemma, because you can never have all three at any one time. If Cyprus is to abandon the free movement of capital, the next economically-logical step is for it to have its own independent monetary policy, in other words to leave the single currency.

Open Europe:

What does this deal mean for Europe?1. Europe once again sidestepped democratic procedure to secure a deal: By removing the deposit levy and forcing losses on depositors through the bank restructuring the eurozone was able to dodge a tricky second vote in the Cypriot Parliament. Although the bank restructuring proposals were approved in the Parliament on Friday, it is not clear that all Cypriot MPs were fully aware of how far the restructuring tools could be pushed. However, it’s likely that the final deal that will actually activate the bailout loan – the Memorandum of Understanding – will need approval of the Cypriot Parliament, so there may be another vote yet to come. Parliamentary approval is not guaranteed but voting it down would again be close to a vote to leave the euro. 2. A change in tack from Germany and the ECB: Germany has made it clear that it is no longer willing to foot the bill for extensive bailouts without the recipient country taking a share of the burden and making some radical changes. The ECB, by setting an ultimatum, has signalled that it is willing to use the significant leverage and control which it has to force what it sees as the desirable outcome, meaning it is becoming an increasingly political actor (which its mandate does not allow). In combination with the sense of unfairness that has been built on all sides, this could serve to entrench the North-South standoff in the Eurozone, making future talks trickier. 3. Will the Troika break up? Reports overnight and throughout the week have shown that this relationship has become increasingly strained, particularly between the IMF and the European Commission. Some strains were visible also over the Greek debt sustainability analysis, but looks to be far worse this time around. With Germany and the northern countries insistent on the IMF’s continued involvement there could be further conflict. Any future bailout deals will likely remain strained because of this. What does this deal mean for Cyprus?1. Despite avoiding taxing small depositors, political upheaval looks likely: Although the most controversial aspect of the original plan was dropped there will likely be some political fallout. Ultimately, the government in Cyprus has been shown up by the crisis, with both the Finance Minister and President reportedly threatening to resign at various stages. Furthermore, the bank restructuring will likely cause significant unemployment. 2. The standard of living and the wider economy could collapse: Cyprus’ position as a financial centre could be over. There are few other alternatives for growth. One option that remains is tourism, but with a significantly overvalued currency it is not clear to what extent Cyprus can take advantage of this. The capital controls will severely hamper liquidity in the economy, while it will be very difficult for the small island to trade with the rest of the world (it is far from self-sufficient). The collapse in GDP could be anywhere between 5% and 10% this year, depending on how long capital controls are imposed, while the resulting collapse in tax revenue could make the government’s position worse. There is a strong chance Cyprus could become a zombie economy – reliant on eurozone and ECB funding to function, possibly requiring further bailouts. 3. The capital controls will keep Cyprus teetering at the edge of the euro: As we noted over the weekend, these controls are severe and could de facto lead to Cyprus being seen as out of the euro. Ultimately, money is no longer fungible between Cyprus and the rest of the Eurozone and, at this point in time, it’s hard to argue that a euro in Cyprus is worth the same as a euro elsewhere. The real problem though may not be imposing the controls but removing them – Iceland still has capital controls in place, five years after it installed them (despite having the advantage of a devalued currency). 4. Is Cypriot debt sustainable? A key goal throughout these negotiations has been to make Cypriot debt sustainable (unlike under the Greek bailouts). We do not believe this has been achieved due to the likely collapse in GDP noted above. A €10bn bailout will push Cypriot debt to GDP to 140% - if Cypriot GDP falls by just 5% this year, that rises to 148%. What is the geopolitical fallout of this deal?There is yet to be a clear reaction from Russia but Russian depositors are likely to be hit hard by this deal. Russia’s First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov has suggested today that an extension of the €2.5bn loan given to Cyprus is not guaranteed – something which the eurozone indicated was necessary last night. Separately, Russia remains the key energy supplier for most of the EU and has already issued veiled threats around this deal – such as a withdrawal of money from the EU and a switch-away from euro currency reserves. Central banks once again dodge losses:Overnight it became clear that the ECB and IMF were insistent that the ELA must be moved from Laiki bank to the Bank of Cyprus as part of the deal. The main reason for this must be to avoid the Cypriot Central Bank taking losses on the ELA, which would have been counterproductive as it would have to have been recapped by the Cypriot government, a cost which would need to be added to the bailout bill. This episode does highlight that the assets pledged as collateral at the ELA are basically worthless and that avoiding central bank losses will always be a key objective in any bailout negotiations. Worryingly, once the banks reopen (capital controls notwithstanding) money will likely flow out, leading to an increase in ELA and reliance on central bank funding. Are there any positives from this deal?

• The main positive is that a deal was finally reached, the alternative would likely have been messy for the eurozone and the EU.
• There is some reduction in moral hazard, since those who invested in the large undercapitalised banks are footing the bill – as opposed to all depositors.
• Some trust in terms of the deposit guarantee below €100,000 may have been restored.
• Senior bank bondholders in Laiki and possibly Bank of Cyprus will be bailed in (taking losses) – although this may not raise much cash, it is the correct order in which to restructure the banks.

These small points will provide little comfort as the Cypriot population endures the harsh reality of rising unemployment, fiscal consolidation, private sector stagnation and internal devaluation, all while under stringent capital controls.For more information please contact the office on 0044 (0)207 197 2333, the author Raoul Ruparel on 0044 (0)757 696 5823 or Mats Persson on (0)779 946 0691.© Open Europe 2005 - 2013 Open Europe, 7 Tufton Street, London SW1P 3QN +44 (0)20 7197 2333

[Anduril]

Izvini, služio sam se zvaničnom retorikom koja glasi da Kipar mora sam da obezbedi polovinu bailouta a drugu polovinu će poreski obveznici EU čiju većinu predstavnika niko nije pitao za mišljenje pošto su odluke doneli predstavnici nemačkih poreskih obveznika.

Znaci Merkel sada odlucuje i u ime holandskih, finskih, austrijskih ili francuskih obveznika koji bi bez nje naravno potrcali da spasavaju kiparski bankarski biznis model.

Zvanična retorika takođe ponosito ističe da Kipar neće obezbediti polovinu bailouta od svojih građana već od Rusa koji drže pare na Kipru. To se izričito podvlači u svim objašnjenjima i predstavlja kao nekakvo neverovatno civilizacijsko dostignuće. Dakle, Rusi će platiti makar polovinu.

Pa ako je zvanicna retorika imbecilna (jer se naravno ne radi samo o Rusima kao sto ne peru ni svi Rusi novac), cemu njeno oponasanje?

Ja samo pitam da li je zaista to isterivanje maka na konac vredno rizikovanja bank run-a u barem 5-6 zemalja Evrozone? I zašto je odjednom postalo toliko važno da ruski deponenti nauče lekciju iz kapitalizma koju nisu morali da uče grčki, portugalski, irski i španski deponenti?

Cenim da su strani deponenti generalno manje vazni posto uglavnom ne zive, ne stvaraju i ne glasaju u EU.

Nije uopšte problem u tome što su kiparske banke proćerdale ruske pare.

Itekako je to problem (ne samo ruske) i daleko najveci a ova ostala galama je zapravo sporedni problem. Pravo pitanje je ko ce odgovornih koji su procerdali i rizikovali pare ili uzimali dobre kamate platiti.

Problem je u tome što za ruske pare važi da se gubici naplaćuju od deponenata, dočim za evropske pare važi da se gubici naplaćuju od poreskih obveznika. A ti obveznici se doje rusofobijom kako bi kliktali od sreće što su njihove elite ošišale Ruse za 20 milijardi evra dok u isto vreme jednu reč ne prozbore kada te iste elite ošišaju njih za stotine milijardi.

Da. I to samo zato što nisi otišao korak dalje (gde se ja već nalazim) i konstatovao da to rade usput onako prebrojavajući krvna zrnca i poreklo deponovanog novca, verovatno sporta radi (što čak ni Slobodan Milošević nije radio)....

Cekaj, jel to neki zakon donesen koji sisa iskljucivo ruske deponente preko 100K ili sam ja nesto propustio?Takodje, sumnjam da iko klikti od srece bilo gde zbog citave ove situacije.

Da ne pominjem da postoje i neki Kiprani koji su poštenim radom i štednjom stekli 105k evra pa će im to sada biti oduzeto, a oni koji su se igrom slučaja 15. marta zadesili na 95k biće pošteđeni. Mislim, jesam li ja jedini koji ovde primećuje da je u novijoj evropskoj istoriji jedino Slobodan Milošević zamrznuo štednju građana? I da Evropska Unija, ej, Evropska Unija sada ide njegovim stopama? Da nije tragično bilo bi više nego komično.

Ako neko ide necijim stopama onda je to Kipar a ne EU. EU nije drzava niti ima neke direktne drzavne ili bankarske ingerencije na Kipru. Stednju ne garantuje EU pa cak ni ECB nego Kipar.

Samo to nije bila vlada Putina, već zapadnog miljenika Kirijenka.

Dok Putin i frieds u to vreme nisu bili niko i nista - samo su vodili predsednicki kabinet i preuzeli FSB. Sitnica.

Odlično je objasnio. Vlade evropskih država u XXI veku rade ono što je ruska vlada radila potkraj XX veka, usput narušavajući osnovna načela na kojima ja, naravno, zasnovana. Ali dobro, kapiram da mnogi vole da cilj bude ispravan, bez obzira na sredstva.

Sta tacno rade vlade EU i kako se poredi sa onim sto je Rusija uradila od 1998. i sto jos uvek radi? Hajde objasni onako podrobno - ti se razumes u razliku izmedju nacionalizacije, bankrota i sisanja bondholdersa.

Nacionalni bailouti nisu isto što i bailouti koje su od EU zatražile četiri države pre Kipra, i koje su platili svi poreski obveznici EU. Platili su čak i za par zemalja van Evrozone. Upucano je bezmalo 300 milijardi evra, pola od toga samo u Grčku, i sad nije moglo na isti način da se upuca još deset milijardi nego odjednom moraju deponenti malo da nauče rizike kapitalizma.

A, da li su se depoziti uzimali u Irskoj? Zasto ne u Grckoj, koja je i uzrok problema na Kipru?Kako je uopste moguce tako velika kriza u Evrozoni?Ima mnogo pitanja ali skoro svi odgovori vode ka Briselu i Berlinu. A, za ove danas dogadjaje idu i prilicno zapadnije ;)

Pa izgleda da je ponestalo para ili politicke volje ili oba. Zar je to toliko cudno iako je najavljeno odavno da ce do toga doci pre ili kasnije jer para za sve jednostavno nema?Mozda se ponudite da platite nesto od kiparskog duga kad je tako mali?Kakva komedija - internet borci za bankarsku pravdu diskutuju sta bi poreski obveznici u EU trebali da rade sa svojim parama.

[Аврам Гојић]

Mozda se ponudite da platite nesto od kiparskog duga kad je tako mali?Kakva komedija - internet borci za bankarsku pravdu diskutuju sta bi poreski obveznici u EU trebali da rade sa svojim parama.

obicno ne posezes za ovako mongoloidnim izjavama. zao mi je ako te ova prica tako ljuti

[CPP]

The Guardian

Dijsselbloem: Cyprus deal is template for the futureEurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem has sent the euro tumbling by declaring that the Cyprus rescue should be seen as "a template for the rest of the eurozone".In an interview with reporters in Brussels after the Cyprus plan was agreed, Dijsselbloem argued that Europe could now take a new approach to tackling struggling banks.Dijsselbloem said (via Reuters):

What we've done last night is what I call pushing back the risks.If there is a risk in a bank, our first question should be 'Okay, what are you in the bank going to do about that? What can you do to recapitalise yourself?'.If the bank can't do it, then we'll talk to the shareholders and the bondholders, we'll ask them to contribute in recapitalising the bank, and if necessary the uninsured deposit holders.

Dijsselbloem, who began his term as Eurogroup president by presiding over the botched original bailout for Cyprus, argues that it's fair for big depositors to take the hit:

If we want to have a healthy, sound financial sector, the only way is to say, 'Look, there where you take on the risks, you must deal with them, and if you can't deal with them, then you shouldn't have taken them on....The consequences may be that it's the end of story, and that is an approach that I think, now that we are out of the heat of the crisis, we should take

That last line is a concern -- are we really in calm waters now? With no stable government in Italy (or even an instable one), Greece trudging through another year of recession, Portugal and Ireland striving to exit their bailout. And don't even mention France.The key to Dijsselbloem's comments is that he's suggesting that Europe will no longer need the ESM -- the €700bn bazooka that was meant to be on standby to prevent a banking collapse.The interview has sent the euro sliding, and pushed shares down across Europe. Several Italian banks have just been temporarily suspended (for dropping more than 5%).

[Muwan]

Pa izgleda da je ponestalo para ili politicke volje ili oba. Zar je to toliko cudno iako je najavljeno odavno da ce do toga doci pre ili kasnije jer para za sve jednostavno nema?Mozda se ponudite da platite nesto od kiparskog duga kad je tako mali?Kakva komedija - internet borci za bankarsku pravdu diskutuju sta bi poreski obveznici u EU trebali da rade sa svojim parama.

Obično tamo gde ima mesta za 300+200 milijardi, naći će se mesta za još 10. Konzistentnost je uvek dobro došla osobina.Ovo što si ispalio u druge dve rečenice je daleko ispod tvog nivoa i ne znam čemu sad to.

[Zaz_pi]

Pa izgleda da je ponestalo para ili politicke volje ili oba. Zar je to toliko cudno iako je najavljeno odavno da ce do toga doci pre ili kasnije jer para za sve jednostavno nema?Mozda se ponudite da platite nesto od kiparskog duga kad je tako mali?Kakva komedija - internet borci za bankarsku pravdu diskutuju sta bi poreski obveznici u EU trebali da rade sa svojim parama.

A, mozda zato sto bi u Irskoj, ali i Grckoj, gubile nemacke, francuske banke na veliko? Vec sam dao podatak, nemacke banke su u spekulacije sa nakretninama plasirale $200 milijardi u Irsku.A, mozda ih je iznerviralo i ovo:

Russia, China find compromise on gas deal after 15 year standoffCNPC, Gazprom agree MOU on 38 bcm per year gas from 2018MOSCOW, March 25 (Reuters) - China has accepted an olive branch from Russia's Gazprom after years of tough talks which had failed to yield a deal on gas supplies, though the main point of conflict - price - remains.Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) agreed on Friday night that 38 billion cubic metres per year of Russian gas would flow to China starting in 2018 and come only from Russia's East Siberian fields, rather than the West Siberian fields which also supply Europe.In signing the memorandum of understanding, Gazprom gave up its a dream of using its core fields in West Siberia to supply both Europe and China to become a "swing supplier" capable of sending the same gas east or west, depending on the most lucrative price option.The 38 bcm is less than the planned 68 billion cubic metres per year it would have shipped under an earlier agreement which envisaged shipments from both untapped new fields in East Siberia which would be linked to China by a new pipeline, and West Siberia.Even at that reduced volume, China would be Gazprom's largest customer, ahead of EU member Germany, which took over 33 bcm of Russian gas last year.In a sign that CNPC has taken a more accommodating stance in return, the Chinese energy company agreed to discuss an up-front payment for 30 years of gas supplies, which would likely be an interest free arrangement that could whittle down the projected cost of delivering the gas, analysts said."It is a new vehicle to balance the price gap," Keun-Wook Paik, a senior fellow at Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, said.Gazprom Chief Executive Alexei Miller told reporters on Friday after meetings with a Chinese delegation headed by new President Xi Jinping that the terms of the MOU would be made binding in June.

Ovo je ogromna diversifikacija ruskog izvoza gasa, oko 28% celog izvoza u Evropu 2012. Plus, sto Rusija planira veliki izvoz LNG prema Indiji i drugim azijskim trzistima. Ovo znaci da je EU izlozenija ucenama iz Moskve. Bas su im se nacrtali sa ovom odlukom.Doduse, Kinezi traze od Rusa da im ovi prodaju Su-35 kako bi mogli da kopiraju novi motor za svojn novi avion. Rusija ionako planira novu generaciju motora za svoj novi avion, pa ce im dati od 2015 Su-35. Naravno, Kinezi moraju da potpisu ovaj sporazum plus da finansiraju ruske projekte po Sibiru, Artkitku. Vec su dali zajam Rosnjeftu da kupi TNK-BP od BP, cime je Rosnjeft postao najveca naftna kompanija na svetu po rezervama koja se kotira na berzi.EU postaje mnogo vise izlozena prema Moskvi. Mozda pokusavaju da nekako pritisnu Ruse? Doduse, ruski odgovor im je dosao kada je Gazprom pre par dana kupio ogromno LNG polje u izraelskim vodama-Levijatan.Zato sam rekao, sacekajmo da idimo gde ovo ide.

[Muwan]

Eurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem has sent the euro tumbling by declaring that the Cyprus rescue should be seen as "a template for the rest of the eurozone".

Znači ne veruem koji su ovo Dinkići... Biće pravo čudo ukoliko već sutra ne dođe do masovnog povlačenja velikih depozita u Sloveniji, Mađarskoj i na Baltiku.

[Anduril]

obicno ne posezes za ovako mongoloidnim izjavama. zao mi je ako te ova prica tako ljuti

Izjava uopste nije mongoloidna vec je mongoloidan argument da se radi o "sici" od 10 milijardi.Tih 10 milijardi je oko tve trecine kiparskog GDP-a sto je jos koliko toliko odrzivo za otplacivanje.Sve preko toga bi bilo vec nerealno i suicidalno za buduce generacije na Kipru da otplacuju.O tolikom kreditu po stanovniku gradjani Spanije ili Italije mogu samo da sanjaju.Ono sto je irititantno je da se konstanto plasira glupost da su uspesnije zemlje u EU nekakve stipse iako vec godinama finansiraju jeftinim kreditima i garancijama dobar deo kontinenta, ukljucujuci i Srbiju.Sve to se cini da bi se kupilo vreme za reforme a koliko se recimo Kipar reformisao u poslednjih 5 godina (za razliku od Irske) je ocigledno iako su dobro znali u kakvim su problemima.No vreme sada polako istice, para jednostavno nece biti a ko se nije reformisao na vreme i samo pljuckao na zlu EU i naciste kao izvor svih mogucih problema - too bad, the party is over. Mozda se posle potopa razvije neka manje samoubilacka politicko-ekonomska kultura.

[Muwan]

Lorcan Roche Kelly @LorcanRK @J_Dijsselbloem Any reason anyone should leave more than €100k in a euro area bank after your comments? Any at all?

[Аврам Гојић]

Znači ne veruem koji su ovo Dinkići... Biće pravo čudo ukoliko već sutra ne dođe do masovnog povlačenja velikih depozita u Sloveniji, Mađarskoj i na Baltiku.

ok meni je sada potpuno jasno da ovaj covek zeli bas to da izazove. jedino me zanima moguci motiv.ajde da prihvatimo, za potrebe diskusije, da je fer da se uzimaju pare od velikih ulagaca. ali ovaj covek nastupa kao da su eurobanke jedine na svetu.posle ove izjave ne postoji racionalno opravdanje za polaganje novca u evropske banke. Edited March 25, 2013 by Marko M. Dabovic

[kobni zelaya]

Dok Putin i frieds u to vreme nisu bili niko i nista - samo su vodili predsednicki kabinet i preuzeli FSB. Sitnica.

Ne znam samo kakve to ima veze - ne tvrdiš valjda da je FSB naštampao pare i izazvao monetarni udar, a onda zablokirao ušteđevinu po bankama. Čak ni Rusija nije tolika kaubojština.edip - ondosno kao što kaže Wikipedia - Kirienko's cabinet defaulted the GKO-OFZ government bond coupons which led to devaluation of the Russian ruble and 1998 Russian financial crisis. Responsible for the crisis, the prime minister resigned on 23 August. Edited March 25, 2013 by kobni zelaya

[Zaz_pi]

Izjava uopste nije mongoloidna vec je mongoloidan argument da se radi o "sici" od 10 milijardi.Tih 10 milijardi je oko tve trecine kiparskog GDP-a sto je jos koliko toliko odrzivo za otplacivanje.Sve preko toga bi bilo vec nerealno i suicidalno za buduce generacije na Kipru da otplacuju.O tolikom kreditu po stanovniku gradjani Spanije ili Italije mogu samo da sanjaju.Ono sto je irititantno je da se konstanto plasira glupost da su uspesnije zemlje u EU nekakve stipse iako vec godinama finansiraju jeftinim kreditima i garancijama dobar deo kontinenta, ukljucujuci i Srbiju.Sve to se cini da bi se kupilo vreme za reforme a koliko se recimo Kipar reformisao u poslednjih 5 godina (za razliku od Irske) je ocigledno iako su dobro znali u kakvim su problemima.No vreme sada polako istice, para jednostavno nece biti a ko se nije reformisao na vreme i samo pljuckao na zlu EU i naciste kao izvor svih mogucih problema - too bad, the party is over. Mozda se posle potopa razvije neka manje samoubilacka politicko-ekonomska kultura.

Kako se to Irska reformisala? Primer:Government deficit as percentage of GDP worse than Greek at 12.7%(Sep 6, 2012, 01:00)Nezaposlenost sa 4% u 2007 do 15% u 2012. A, taj balon su velikim delom punile nemacke banke. Na kraju su Irci naterani da socijalizuju gubitke nemackih banaka. Zasto tamo nemacke banke nisu preuzele gubitke zbog svoji spekulacija koje su bile slabo regulisane? Plus je Ircima receno da ne mogu da imaju poresku politiku kakavu su imali, sto je bio jedan od glavnih razloga Keltskog tigra, jer su na taj nacin privlukli puno investitora.Da, tacno je da su Nemci, Francuzi, Austrijanci odobravali kredite i ulazili u spekulacije, poput Irske, u mnoge zemlje EU, narocito na jugu, Spanija je takav primer. Ali, Nemci su od toga imali ogromnu korist-izvoz. Nikada Spanci ne bi mogli da toliko kupuju da im nisu davani povoljni krediti i da nije spekulativni novac ulazio u Spaniju. To je omogucavalo Nemackoj znatno veci izvoz. Jos vise je pogodovalo nemackom izvozu, a npr., spanskom zaduzivanju stvaranjem ovakvog evra. Da sam maliciozan, rekao bih da je to bilo tovljenje svinje pred klanje.Ali, u Spaniji, Irskoj, Grckoj, Portugalu nisu dirani depozitari. :) Edited March 25, 2013 by Zaz_pi

[Muwan]

ok meni je sada potpuno jasno da ovaj covek zeli bas to da izazove. jedino me zanima moguci motiv.

Naslovna strana ft.com, trenutno: Cyprus to be model for future bailouts Private investors to bear risk of paying for bank rescuesOvo je potpuno neverovatno, šta ovi ljudi rade.

[CPP]

U principu ovo treba da bude odgovor na too big to fail pricu. U praksi, cenim da ce doci do velikog raslojavanja u bankarskom sektoru, kraja jeftinog novca, i svodjenja zemalja iz kojih je kapital pobegao na polukolonijalni polozaj. Svaka im cast ako evro ovo prezivi.

[Zaz_pi]

Berze u Evropi zatvorene u crvenom, iako je na pocetku bilo odusevljenje. Kamate u Italiji i Spaniji se povecale. EU Zato rublja ojacala prema evru najvise u 2013. Smatra se da je ovo pozitivno za Rusiju jer ce vise novca ostati u zemlji. Naravno da nece, London, Kajmani, Malta, Luksemburg...cekaju. :)