Opšti topik o EU (ex kriza Evrozone)

[borris_]

To bi automatski znacilo izlazak Kipra iz EU.

Edited March 19, 2013 by borris_

[Zaz_pi]

U pravu su ovi iz Guardiana, ovo stvarno poprima obrise holivudskog treša:

Faisal Islam @faisalislamC4News travel agent: "every flight I can see from Moscow to Cyprus is full, apart from two seats". Unusual, as its not holiday season. 3:23 PM - 19 Mar 13

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZR6wok7g7do :lol:Ma, kakva crna ruska baza?! Kipar je od izuzetnog znacaja za Nato i kontrolu I. Mediterana, nisu ga dzaba Britanci maznuli od Turaka da bi sprecili, upravo, Ruse u toj nameri. I, danas tamo imaju baze. ;)

[Prospero]

ako ja čitam dobro ovde je otprilike poruka da je gubitak preko ovog jednokratnog "poreza" u stvari u skladu sa realnim gubicima štednih uloga na drugim mestima (UK npr) plus da bi prinos bio manji da je postojala jača kontrola, tako da se to potire sada na ovaj način.+ ostale strelica ka eu uopšteWhat does a guarantee mean? Mar 19th 2013, 15:53 by Buttonwood

DEPOSIT insurance schemes were a product of the 1930s, when the loss of confidence of savers caused the collapse of many small American banks, worsening the Great Depression. The practice became widespread from the 1970s onwards, with the number of countries using such schemes rising from 12 to 88 between 1974 and 2003, according to an IMF paper.The argument for deposit insurance is that banks are inherently unstable, by virtue of their economic function; they borrow money in the form of deposits (which can be instantly withdrawn) and lend to businesses on a longer-term basis. They are thus vulnerable to destabilising and self-fulfilling bank runs. But the counter-argument is that of moral hazard; depositors have no incentive to choose between banks on grounds of riskiness, and bank executives can take risks knowing that they are underwritten by the insurance scheme.Some jurisdictions tried to offset this by limiting the guarantee; such was the case in Britain up until 2007, when only 90% of deposits between £2000 and £35000 were covered. But the Northern Rock panic showed that even the prospect of a 10% loss caused panic so the scheme was quickly extended.A deposit insurance scheme is designed to cope with the failure of an individual bank. But it may cause the entire banking system to become riskier. The IMF paper argued that

explicit deposit insurance has been shown to increase the likelihood of bank crises significantly. Combining deposit insurance with interest rate liberalisation makes moral hazard even worse because it permits banks to chase high-yield investments carrying heightened risk

If the entire banking system becomes risky, then the risk of an insurance scheme falls on the state. But if, as with Cyprus, the banking system is much bigger than a country's GDP, than the state will be overwhelmed. The guarantee is only as good as the guarantor. The depositors become dependent on the willingness of foreign creditors to uphold the guarantee, and as Cypriots have found to their cost, that cannot be taken for granted. The same was true of Iceland, of course. Some Britons rushed to put their money into Irish banks in 2008 when the Dublin government guaranteed all bank deposits but, as was pointed out at the time, the Irish government could not create pounds. It cannot create euros either.In countries which can print their own currencies, governments can guarantee deposits in nominal terms, but not in real ones. The low interest rates that have propped up the banking system have eaten away at the purchasing power of savings; since 2009, British savers on a 40% tax rate (around 3.8 million middle class people) have seen a 6.8% decline in the purchasing power of their savings, even if they put the money in the best-paying accounts. That is on a par with the lower Cypriot levy.But back to moral hazard. Let us assume that a EU-wide deposit insurance scheme was in place. The price would be greater bank regulation; it would certainly include greater controls on the ability to open a bank account and, perhaps, limits on savings rates. After all, if all banks had equal legal protection, investors would scour the continent in search of an extra few basis points; the flows could be destabilising. As the IMF paper concluded

Unless a country has strong banking regulation, a strict failed bank resolution regime, carefully designed deposit insurance with safeguards against risk, healthy private monitoring, and, most of all, strong institutions, explicit deposit insurance will only be a recipe for future bank crises.

But then we can count on the EU to devise such a smoothly running system, can't we?

[Zaz_pi]

I dok Srbi snevaju kanal, Nemci capaju klijente na Kipru da prebacuju depozite u nemacke banke:

German invite Cypriots to transfer their depositsLetter to be puzzled both the Government of Cyprus and the Central Bank has in his hands SigmaLive. German Advisory Bureau urges Cypriot applicant to transfer the deposits to Germany because of the problems facing our economy.The citizen who received the letter given by the German firm, contacted furious with SigmaLive, denouncing the incident and asking them to take responsible action.The letter suggested 3-4% interest rate on deposits 50 000 euros and above, while guaranteeing their safety. Indeed given timeframe until 30 April 2013.Our intelligence report that "impacted" by German advisory offices were citizens and others.The developments must not confuse those responsible for the true intentions of those who try to impose on us the bill for mowing deposits.

[Budja]

Na savingsu pare, na kartici za day to day potrebe. Pritom je dosta radnji prestalo da prima kartice.Evo sad bacih pogled, zaseda parlament. Preovladava tematika Kipar se saginjati nece, de je taj Berlin da ga roknemo, nas i Rusa 300 miliona.Sreca u nesreci je sto ova kriza pada za vreme posta pa mozemo da praktikujemo razne vidove: duhovni, finansijski, fizicki.

CPP, hvala za odlicen izvestaje sa lica mesta.

[Budja]

ako ja čitam dobro ovde je otprilike poruka da je gubitak preko ovog jednokratnog "poreza" u stvari u skladu sa realnim gubicima štednih uloga na drugim mestima (UK npr) plus da bi prinos bio manji da je postojala jača kontrola, tako da se to potire sada na ovaj način.

O tome je vec pisao Anduril, nije inflacija, ali je mehanizam slican.No, depozitari protiv toga mozda mogu da se bore arbitrazom. I pri tome taj "porez" nije ovako brutalno jednokratan.I ko grantuje da slica mehanizam postepenog gubitka kupovne moci nece nastaviti da radi na Kipru?E, da, ovaj clanak implicira da su kontrole u EU bile vece, sto je donosilo manje prinose depozitarima ali i vecu sigurnost. Ja mogu samo da se nasmejem na takav argument. Edited March 19, 2013 by Budja

[Filipenko]

Kipar rekao “ne“ porezu na depozite!I šta sad? Nikom ništa?

[Gandalf]

Nikom ništa?

bukvalno, nikom nista.

[radisa]

Pa, mislim da je bank run neizbežan, a onda neka je sa srećom bankarskom sistemu na Kipru.

[Filipenko]

Ma dobro, bank run svakako, ali kako oni misle da izbegnu bankrot? Da neće Kina, Iran i Rusija da investiraju™?

[Аврам Гојић]

Kina i Iran nece, ali Rusija bi mogla.pri svemu tome, bank run je i dalje opcija.moja teorija je da ce poverioci popustiti. u protivnom, kredibilitet cele Evrope ide u pizdu materinu ako Putin izvuce Kipar iz bule.

Edited March 19, 2013 by Marko M. Dabovic

[Lezilebovich]

meni se čini da je dizanje para jedina opcija bar za obične ljude i one koji nemaju veze u vrhu vlasti. ko će normalan ostaviti pare u banci a da zna da se razmišlja o tome da im uzmu 5-10 % ? Ne znam koju opciju imaju firme, ali će i oni ganjati sefove i tako nešto.

[Аврам Гојић]

dizanje para je jedini racionalan postupak. ne mogu da zamislim scenario u kome posle ovoga neko i dalje drzi pare u kiparskim bankama.moguce je da cemo na kraju ipak videti kako izgleda nekontrolisani bankrot.

[radisa]

moguce je da cemo na kraju ipak videti kako izgleda nekontrolisani bankrot.

To je loše, osim kao samo po sebi, i kao primer. Ima svi da skinu gaće u narednom periodu, ako negde zapretislični scenario, samo da se ne desi u njihovoj kući.Jebene birokrate su napravile win-win situaciju sebi.

[aram]

bank run ce sprecavati svim sredstvima. ukinuce e-banking, limitirace iznos koji moze da se podigne na sto evra za fizicka lica, transfere van zemlje ce isto limitirati, ... banke u grckoj vec dugo nemaju kesa, sve u svemu, nista sto mi vec nismo videli. al nije ovo jos gotovo, sad sledi drugi krug zavrtanja usiju.