Iran: novi front

[DarkAttraktor]

ovaj, Iran se hvali svojim obogacivanjem uranijuma, to niko u Iranu nikada nije negirao, a Ahmadinedzad se malo-malo pa slika pored centrifuga. sa druge strane, Iran tvrdi da ce se zaustaviti na 5% obogacenja, sto je dovoljno za koriscenje u nuklearnim reaktorima.

Sorry za zbun, posredi je moje pogresno razumevanje da se uranijum obogacuje samo i iskljucivo za zarad pravljenja nuklearnog naoruzanja, pa stoga i neoprezna formulacija.Elem, ne mislim da se treba upustati u diskusije oko Iranskog nuklearnog naoruzavanja sa intervencionistima, jer je to privilegija koju je ta strana odavno izgubila, a i verujem da njih jednako zabole rats ass za to sta javnost misli. Mislim mozda je to imalo nekakvog smisla raditi pre svih ovih WikiLeaks otkrica, al sad da se foliramo da postoji neko drustvo koje svojim mehanizmima vrsi nekakav realan uticaj nad Vasingtonom ili Briselom je prosto smesno.Zato kazem ne praviti im ustupak zalazenja u facticity oko ovoga ili onoga. No reasoning with the beast. Edited November 7, 2011 by DarkAttraktor

[Аврам Гојић]

Ima smisla. Pretpostavljam da i dalje očekujem da sutra u izveštaju bude nešto zaista veliko.

nema sanse. bice isto ono sto se celog dana vrti po medijima, da su stekli know-how za detonatore. sve ostalo je spin zlih Jehudija da privuku paznju na sebe. no, videcemo soon enough

[Roger Sanchez]

Koliko ja znam, IAEA će objaviti da imami polako sele centrifuge (nakon ove prve faze obogaćivanja) u neki njihov Cheyenne Mountain/Yamantaw*, da IAEA to zna i da tu lokaciju imami nemaju namjeru izvrći inspekciji ni pod razno. Dakle, II faza, ili, kak bi onaj smiješni izraelac rekao, 5-7 godina do bombe* koji su iskopali negdje blizu Qoma, dakle, the holiest of holies, bar dok im još Qarbala nije dostupna.

Edited November 7, 2011 by Roger Sanchez

[dig_chohano]

Ih, centrifuge plus know-how za detonatore, dovoljno za pojačane brifinge u Ramat Davidu, u najboljem slučaju.

[Gandalf]

http://garysick.tumblr.com/post/12285478942/is-israels-threat-to-attack-iran-yet-another-bluff

Every few years we have an outbreak of media and official speculation that Israel is on the verge of attacking Iran, perhaps in coordination with the United States. These mini-orgies of incestuous reportage typically involve reports of Israeli military preparation, a flashy show of long-range bombing runs, politicians saying that Iran is so close to a bomb that only bombing can stop them, and worried commentary that American and other officials seem to be persuaded that this time Israel is serious.Often these word bursts come just before a UN event that is likely to produce more sanctions on Iran and near the end of a US presidential term, apparently on the theory that a first-term president is subject to charges of being soft on Iran while a second-term president will conclude he no longer has anything to lose politically by striking against the Islamic regime.

Edited November 7, 2011 by Gandalf

[hazard]

Matoro, ali mozda interesantno, Iran vs. Saudijci:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/GI13Ak01.htmlSep 13, 2005 Demographics and Iran's imperial designBy Spengler Aging populations will cause severe discomfort in the United States and extreme pain in Japan and Europe by mid-century. But the same trends will devastate the frail economies of the Islamic world, and likely plunge many countries into social chaos.By 2050, elderly dependents will comprise nearly a third of the population of some Muslim nations, notably Iran - converging on America's dependency ratio at mid-century. But it is one thing to face such a problem with America's per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of $40,000, and quite another to face it with Iran's per capita GDP of $7,000 - especially given that Iran will stop exporting oil before the population crisis hits.The industrial nations face the prospective failure of their pension systems. But what will happen to countries that have no pension system, where traditional society assumes the care of the aged and infirm? In these cases it is traditional society that will break down, horribly and irretrievably so. Below, I will review the relevant numbers. In a recent essay, I argued that declining Muslim population growth rates give the Islamists just one generation in which to strike out for their goal of global theocracy (The demographics of radical Islam, August 23). Muslim birth rates are collapsing as literacy rises, that is, as the modern world intrudes upon traditional society. Islamic traditional society is so fragile that it crumbles as soon as women learn to read. But the Islamists will not wait for traditional society to unravel. I grossly underestimated Iran's new president Mahmud Ahmadinejad in a report on the Iranian elections (Iran: The living fossils' vengeance, June 28). In programs made public on August 15, Ahmadinejad revealed a response worthy of Adolf Hitler or Joseph Stalin to the inevitable unraveling of Iran's traditional society. He proposes to reduce the number of villages from 66,000 to only 10,000, relocating 30 million Iranians. That is a preemptive response to the inevitable depopulation of rural Iran, in keeping with a totalitarian program for all aspects of Iranian society.As Amir Taheri wrote in Arab News on August 20, "He [Ahmadinejad] wants the state to play a central role in all aspects of people's lives and emphasizes the importance of central planning. The state would follow the citizens from birth to death, ensuring their health, education, well-being and leisure. It will guide them as to what to read and write and what 'cultural products' to consume so as not to be contaminated by Western ideas."Reengineering the shape of Iran's population, the central plank of the new government's domestic program, should be understood as the flip side of Iran's nuclear coin. Aggressive relocation of Iranians and an aggressive foreign policy both constitute a response to the coming crisis.Iran claims that it must develop nuclear power to replace diminishing oil exports. It seems clear that Iranian exports will fall sharply, perhaps to zero by 2020, according to Iranian estimates. But Iran's motives for acquiring nuclear power are not only economic but strategic. Like Hitler and Stalin, Ahmadinejad looks to imperial expansion as a solution for economic crisis at home.Iran wants effective control of Iraq through its ascendant Shi'ite majority, and ultimately control of the oil-rich regions of western Saudi Arabia, where Shi'ites form a majority. As Pepe Escobar reported from Tehran (Iran takes over Pipelineistan , Sep 10), Ahmadinejad wants to make Iran a regional power not only in production but in transmission, through a proposed oil pipeline through Iraq and Syria. Demographics and Iran's imperial designBy SpenglerAging populations will cause severe discomfort in the United States and extreme pain in Japan and Europe by mid-century. But the same trends will devastate the frail economies of the Islamic world, and likely plunge many countries into social chaos.By 2050, elderly dependents will comprise nearly a third of the population of some Muslim nations, notably Iran - converging on America's dependency ratio at mid-century. But it is one thing to face such a problem with America's per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of $40,000, and quite another to face it with Iran's per capita GDP of $7,000 - especially given that Iran will stop exporting oil before the population crisis hits.The industrial nations face the prospective failure of their pension systems. But what will happen to countries that have no pension system, where traditional society assumes the care of the aged and infirm? In these cases it is traditional society that will break down, horribly and irretrievably so. Below, I will review the relevant numbers.In a recent essay, I argued that declining Muslim population growth rates give the Islamists just one generation in which to strike out for their goal of global theocracy (The demographics of radical Islam, August 23). Muslim birth rates are collapsing as literacy rises, that is, as the modern world intrudes upon traditional society. Islamic traditional society is so fragile that it crumbles as soon as women learn to read.But the Islamists will not wait for traditional society to unravel. I grossly underestimated Iran's new president Mahmud Ahmadinejad in a report on the Iranian elections (Iran: The living fossils' vengeance, June 28).In programs made public on August 15, Ahmadinejad revealed a response worthy of Adolf Hitler or Joseph Stalin to the inevitable unraveling of Iran's traditional society. He proposes to reduce the number of villages from 66,000 to only 10,000, relocating 30 million Iranians. That is a preemptive response to the inevitable depopulation of rural Iran, in keeping with a totalitarian program for all aspects of Iranian society.As Amir Taheri wrote in Arab News on August 20, "He [Ahmadinejad] wants the state to play a central role in all aspects of people's lives and emphasizes the importance of central planning. The state would follow the citizens from birth to death, ensuring their health, education, well-being and leisure. It will guide them as to what to read and write and what 'cultural products' to consume so as not to be contaminated by Western ideas."Reengineering the shape of Iran's population, the central plank of the new government's domestic program, should be understood as the flip side of Iran's nuclear coin. Aggressive relocation of Iranians and an aggressive foreign policy both constitute a response to the coming crisis.Iran claims that it must develop nuclear power to replace diminishing oil exports. It seems clear that Iranian exports will fall sharply, perhaps to zero by 2020, according to Iranian estimates. But Iran's motives for acquiring nuclear power are not only economic but strategic. Like Hitler and Stalin, Ahmadinejad looks to imperial expansion as a solution for economic crisis at home.Iran wants effective control of Iraq through its ascendant Shi'ite majority, and ultimately control of the oil-rich regions of western Saudi Arabia, where Shi'ites form a majority. As Pepe Escobar reported from Tehran (Iran takes over Pipelineistan , Sep 10), Ahmadinejad wants to make Iran a regional power not only in production but in transmission, through a proposed oil pipeline through Iraq and Syria.This may appear to be a desperate gamble, but conditions call for desperate gambles. Ahmadinejad is not a throwback, as I wrote with a dismissiveness that seems painful in hindsight. He has taken the measure of his country's crisis, and determined to meet it head-on. Washington, from what I can tell, has no idea what sort of opponent it confronts. Iranian dissidents were supposed to push their country toward democratization, following the glasnost model of Soviet deterioration, and contagion from the new democracy in Iraq was supposed to hasten the process. Ahmadinejad's ascendancy took Washington by complete surprise. Now there is nothing obvious the US can do to reduce Iran's influence among Iraqi Shi'ites, or to prevent Iran from pursuing its nuclear ambitions. The rising elderly dependent ratio, that is, the proportion of pensioners in the general population, has given rise to a genre of apocalyptic literature in the West: governments will raise taxes, debase the currency, cut pensions and flail about hopelessly as the cost rises of supporting the rising number of aged. In the US, pensioners now are 18% of the population, but will become 33% by 2050, according to the United Nations' medium forecast. In other words, a full additional 15% of the population will require support from the remaining population.Shifting a full 15% of the population from the ranks of the working to the ranks of the retired will place an uncomfortable burden on American taxpayers, to be sure. But the shift in the case of Muslim countries is much worse. Between 2005 and 2050, the shift from workers to pensioners will comprise 21% of Iranians, 19% of Turks and Indonesians, and 20% of Algerians. That is almost as bad as the German predicament, where the proportion of dependent elderly will rise from 28% in 2005 to 50% in 2050. Each employed German worker will have to support a pensioner in 2050. A simple way to express the problem is that German productivity must rise by 0.8% per year between now and 2050 simply to maintain the same standard of living, for that is the rate of productivity growth that would allow a smaller number of German workers to produce the same amount of goods and services. That is not inconceivable; during the 1990s, German productivity grew at such levels. Productivity growth in the Arab world and Iran has been low or negative, and is not likely to improve.As I observed in my June analysis of Iran's presidential election, "From an economic standpoint, Iran is a changeling monster, an oil well attached to an iron lung, as it were, maintaining with subsidies a rural population that is no longer viable. Oil and natural gas earn $1,300 a year for each Iranian, roughly a fifth of per-capita GDP. The Islamic republic dispenses this wealth to keep alive a moribund economy. Government spending has risen by four-and-a-half times during the past four years, financed via the central bank's printing press, pushing inflation up to 15% pa [per annum], while unemployment remains at 11%." Iran's ultra-Islamist government has no hope of ameliorating the crisis through productivity growth. Instead it proposes totalitarian methods that will not reduce the pain, but only squelch the screams. Iran envisages a regional Shi'ite empire backed by nuclear weaponry. And Washington, from what I can tell, has not a clue as to what is happening.Apart from Iran, the population dynamics described above will lead to more rather than fewer terrorist demonstrations. A school of thought represented by Daniel Pipes, for example, holds that "terrorism obstructs the quiet work of political Islamism", as Pipes wrote on August 3 in the New York Sun. "In tranquil times, organizations like the Muslim Council of Britain and the Council on American-Islamic Relations effectively go about their business, promoting their agenda to make Islam dominant and imposing dhimmitude (whereby non-Muslims accept Islamic superiority and Muslim privilege). Westerners generally respond like slowly boiled frogs are supposed to, not noticing a thing."Here I think Pipes is wrong; the Islamists have to strike quickly and decisively, not only to advance their cause in the West but also to consolidate their power in home countries where conditions will become unstable before long.

 

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HL05Ak04.htmlDec 5, 2006 Civil wars or proxy wars?By Spengler Words often mean the opposite of what they appear to mean in the Middle East. When Jordan's King Abdullah demanded a speedy solution to the Israel-Palestine issue to quell the outbreak of multiple civil wars in the region, he meant the precise opposite: the Arab world has something more pressing on its mind than the plight of the Palestinians. The emergence of an Iranian threat to Saudi Arabia makes Palestine the odd man out. The Palestine problem has dropped to the bottom of the Arab priority list, and the fate of the Palestinians is to become cannon fodder for proxy wars. By the same token, King Abdullah's warning of multiple civil wars meant the opposite of what it appeared to. What formerly were civil wars (or prospective civil wars) in Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine have become three fronts in a Sunni-Shi'ite war, in which the local contestants are mere proxies. This is obvious in Lebanon, and becoming so in Palestine, particularly after Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh's meeting with Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad in Qatar on Saturday. As historian Niall Ferguson observed in his November 27 Los Angeles Times column, "some civil wars never end", although he neglected to add why this is the case: it is because someone on the outside keeps adding fuel to the fire. The classic example is the great German civil war, namely the 30 Years' War of 1618-48. The Catholic and Protestant Germans, with roughly equal strength, battered each other through two generations because France sneakily shifted resources to whichever side seemed likely to fold. I have contended for years that the United States ultimately will adopt the perpetual-warfare doctrine that so well served Cardinal Richelieu and made France the master of Europe for a century (see How I learned to stop worrying and love chaos, March 14). "There are two sorts of rat/The hungry and the fat," wrote Heinrich Heine. The fault line between hungry Iranians and the fat Saudis may take precedence over the civilization divide between Muslims and the West, at least for the time being. That is why the Israelis have rediscovered the 2003 Saudi peace plan. The Saudi kingdom has threatened to intervene on the side of the beleaguered Sunnis of Iraq, and Iran (through Hezbollah) is seeking to overthrow the Saudi-allied government of Lebanon, as well as dominate the rejectionist wing of the Palestinians. Iran, I warned on September 13, 2005, is running short of oil and soldiers (Demographics and Iran's imperial design). Its oil exports could fall to zero within only 10 years, according to new studies reviewed in the December 11 Business Week. Iran's circumstances appear far more pressing than I believed a year ago, when the consensus estimate gave Iran another 20 years' worth of oil exports. Apart from oil, Iran exports only dried fruit, pistachio nuts, carpets, caviar and, more recently, prostitutes (Jihads and whores, November 21). Iran covets the oil reserves of southeastern Iraq, southern Azerbaijan, and northwestern Saudi Arabia. With 30% youth unemployment, 10% inflation, epidemic prostitution and drug addiction, Iran's fraying social fabric depends on an oil-derived government dole. Within a generation it will have half as many men of military age, and four times as many pensioners. As currently configured, Iran faces economic and demographic collapse eventually. If, as Business Week reports, Iran's oil exports are falling by one-seventh each year, the reckoning might come sooner rather than later. The theocratic regime is a wounded and dangerous beast, prone to hunt outside its own preserve. Saudi Arabia's quasi-official threat of intervention in Iraq should be read in this light. On November 28, a Saudi strategic adviser, Nawaf Obaid, warned in the Washington Post of "massive Saudi intervention to stop Iranian-backed Shi'ite militias from butchering Iraqi Sunnis", if need be. "To be sure, Saudi engagement in Iraq carries great risks - it could spark a regional war," Obaid added. "So be it: the consequences of inaction are far worse." I do not mean to deprecate Saudi concern for the welfare of Sunnis, but the kingdom faces an existential threat. Thanks to The Sunday Times of London, we know that Prince Bandar al-Sultan, the Saudi official closest to the US administration, met with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert as early as last September. In late October, Israeli officials, starting with Defense Minister Amir Peretz, cited the 2003 Saudi peace plan as a possible "basis for negotiations". It amounted simply to recognition of Israel by Saudi Arabia and other Arab states in return for Israel's withdrawal to 1967 borders. All this occurred prior to the US elections and the advent of the James Baker-Lee Hamilton Iraq Study Group. On balance the Israelis should be pleased at the development. As Diana West wrote in her December 1 TownHall column, "Imagine: Sunni Saudi Arabia vs Shi'ite Iran - and nary an American soldier ordered to pull his PC [politically correct] punches in the crossfire." More precisely, Iran has sufficient influence among the Palestinians to ensure that Hamas rejects a Palestinian national-unity government, leaving Israel no one with whom to negotiate, and a relatively free hand for the occasional raid. Jerusalem can stretch one hand in peace toward the Saudis, and hammer Iran's ally Hamas with the other.A long war of attrition against Iran will succeed unless Iran can break out of encirclement, which in practice means acquiring nuclear weapons. I do not know how close Iran might be to obtaining a deployable nuclear weapon. If it appears close to that goal, either the United States or Israel will attack Iranian nuclear facilities. But if the West as well as the Saudis is confident that nuclear weapons remain out of Iranian reach, the Richelieu strategy of slow and bloody attrition might be just as effective.

Ukratko: Iranu ponestaje nafte, stari im stanovnistvo, ekonomija u buli, zele nuklearni kisobran da pod njim stvore "siitsko carstvo" od delova Iraka i Saudijske Arabije, delova koji su eto slucajno puni nafte. Ako imaju nuklearno oruzije, niko ne moze da ih dira dok oni podbadaju pobune i sl. medju siitima sirom regiona.

[kapetanm]

Možda i ovaj put neće biti ništa, toliko dugo je podgrevano da je Iran blizu A bombe te da treba to sprečiti, pa ništa. Opet, s druge strane, vreme prolazi i ja verujem da jesu blizu. S druge strane, naravno da Izrael podgreva tu priču, ali stvari su se u regionu prilično izmenile i ne zna se ima li (Izrael) bezbedna leđa.Suštinski:Iran je bliži nego ikad, kad godinama radiš na razvoju nuklearnog programa, opireš se pritiscima i teraš dalje, to je to.Ima li NATO+Izrael snage da to spreči? Ne znam

[Кристофер Лумумбо]

treptao bi i te kako posto se tu ne pita samo Izrael nego i Amerika

koliko se secam, amerika se nije pitala kada su izraelci roknuli iracko postrojenje.

[Roger Sanchez]

koliko se secam, amerika se nije pitala kada su izraelci roknuli iracko postrojenje.

Nisam baš siguran. (Roknuli su Izraeliti i Siriju, kad ono, prošle godine? Nije čak bilo ni velike halabuke.)

[borris_]

Mi u Qom-u radimo projekat za monorail ( )

[Кристофер Лумумбо]

Nisam baš siguran. (Roknuli su Izraeliti i Siriju, kad ono, prošle godine? Nije čak bilo ni velike halabuke.)

mislim da je izbio skandal posto je izraelski spijun ukrao planove tog postrojenja od americke obavestajne sluzbe, nakon cega je i doslo do bombardovanja.

[luba]

juan cole isto misli da obama nece da da zeleno svetlo.a ahmadahdmadhadhdiand ima par citata u danasnjem intervjuu koji zvuce dosta poznato:

"Iran's capabilities are increasing and it is progressing, and for that reason it has been able to compete in the world. Now Israel and the West, particularly America, fear Iran's capabilities and role," Ahmadinejad said in remarks published Monday in Egypt's Al-Akhbar newspaper. "Therefore they are trying to gather international support for a military operation to stop (Iran's) role. The arrogant should know that Iran will not allow them to take any action against it," he said. Ahmadinejad added Washington wanted to "save the Zionist entity, but it will not be able to do so." "This entity (Israel) can be compared to a kidney transplanted in a body that rejected it," he said. "Yes it will collapse and its end will be near."

[Kampokei]

Елем, један полу-офтопик: Жене у Ирану морају тражити дозволу да би се могле удати за не-Иранца, које по правилу бивају одбијене ако изабраник није муслиман. Међутим, мушкарци у Ирану могу опуштено да ожене хришћанку, чак и јеврејку, али не и хиндуисткињу! Има ли неко упућенији да ми објасни у чему је ту фора, шта Иран има против хинду религије а да нема против Мојсијеве?

Verovatno zbog istog razloga zbog kojeg ne tolerisu zoroastrijance - nije klasicna monoteisticka religija.

[minka]

Interesantna recenica sa wikipedije:

Iran has launched no wars of choice in modern history, and its leadership adheres to a doctrine of "no first strike."^[10] The country's military budget is the lowest per capita in the Persian Gulf region besides the UAE.^[10]

Zaista, ako je tacno, a cini mi se da jeste, Iran predstavlja opasnost po savremeni svet i treba ga ukloniti. Zamisli takvu vojnu silu, a da nikada nikog nisu napali??? Uzasno los primer i USA ce morati da reaguju pod hitno... Uzgred, Iran je daleko ozbiljnija drzava od Iraka (sto su dokazali u direktnom sudaru - da Sadam nije posegao za bojnim otrovima, vec bi se tada zaljuljao na vesalima), a narocito od Gadafija. I vise nisu onaj isti Iran kome je IDF unistio reaktore. I demografski i geografski i ekonomski i vojno i drustvenim uredjenjem mi odaju takav utisak da se ne bih bas kladio da ce USA tako lako uci u taj rat.

[luba]

a tracevi iz beca kazu da ce novi izvestaj imati vise detalja i nece biti samo "smoking gun", sto moze i da bude tacno kada se procita salehijeva reakcija da je zasnovan na laznim cinjenicama.

"I believe that these documents lack authenticity. But if they insist, they should go ahead and publish. Better to face danger once than be always in danger," Salehi was quoted as saying.

el-baradej je, po odlasku sa cela iaea, ostavio debele upute sta proucavati i gledati, i na svaki nacin dopreti do coveka koji se zove vjaceslav danilenko, sovjetski naucnik kog je iran kupio negde polovinom 1990ih, preko zirinovskog i ostale ekipice koja je pravila ono tajno teslino oruzje ili sta je vec bilo. samo tip nije ni najmanje kdp.