Avionski udesi i nesreće

[vememah]

8 hours ago, Redoran said:

Da, odmah ima da lansiraju po jednu na Bagdad, Rijad i Teheran. Bilo na tviteru.

Jeste, baš sam na to mislio.

8 hours ago, Redoran said:

Ovo što je iranska vlast danas uradila je ozbiljan presedan i koliko god da nisu imali kud nego da priznaju, zaslužuju prizanje za prilično čistu terminologiju koju koriste i jasno preuzimanje odgovornosti.

Slažem se da je pohvalno što su skratili agoniju. Ozbiljan presedan u odnosu na ranije slučajeve je i količina dokaza i indicija protiv njih.

8 hours ago, Redoran said:

Uporedi to sa izjavom Buša starijeg povodom obaranja IR655. To je ubedljivo osvojena zlatna medalja bešćašća u ovakim incidentima.

Evo da imamo to ovde čisto radi poređenja.

Quote

Iran Air Flight 655 was a scheduled passenger flight from Tehran to Dubai via Bandar Abbas that was shot down on 3 July 1988 by an SM-2MR surface-to-air missile fired from USS Vincennes, a guided-missile cruiser of the United States Navy. The aircraft, an Airbus A300, was destroyed and all 290 people on board were killed.
...

George H. W. Bush, the vice president of the United States at the time commented on a separate occasion, speaking to a group of Republican ethnic leaders (7 August 1988): "I will never apologize for the United States – I don't care what the facts are... I'm not an apologize-for-America kind of guy." The quote, although unrelated to the downing of the Iranian air liner and not in any official capacity, has been attributed as such.

Bush used the phrase frequently during the 1988 campaign and promised to "never apologize for the United States" months prior to the July 1988 shoot-down and as early as January 1988.
...
Despite the mistakes made in the downing of the plane, the men of USS Vincennes were awarded Combat Action Ribbons for completion of their tours in a combat zone.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

 

Što se namere tiče, zaista je malo verovatno da Iranom upravljaju toliki maloumnici koji nisu svesni posledica obaranja civilnog aviona po reputaciju režima u trenutku kad je dobar imidž očajnički potreban i zbog spoljnih i zbog unutrašnjih prilika. Ali opet, toliko su bili maloumni da ne zaustave civilne letove nakon gađanja baza iako su savršeno svesni nedostataka svoje PVO (videti onaj NYT članak iz 2012).

 

17 minutes ago, ObiW said:

Kolko je realno da neko besciljno tumara ulicama Teherana i naprasno resi da ukljuci kameru i okrene telefon bas tamo gde raketa pukne avion?

Ne tumara besciljno. Ako je snimak autentičan, u pitanju je po svoj prilici noćni čuvar pošto je snimano iza ograde nekog placa koji štite psi (pogledaj moje ranije poruke). Moguće je da je čovek čuo nešto i uzeo da snima ka onoj strani kuda uglavnom prolaze avioni kad poleću sa obližnjeg aerodroma.

[ObiW]

Zato sam i pitao koliko je jak prasak kad se lansira raketa. Ako su bile dve, prvi prasak mu je dao generalnu orijentaciju, a drugi  mu je pomogao da odredi odakle tačno zvuk dolazi. 

[goofs]

1 hour ago, ObiW said:

Jel moguće da je ovo na twiteru fejk momaka iz Lenglija, sa ciljem da pritisne zvanični Teheran da odustane od poricanja obaranja aviona?

Ne znam da li jeste, ali onakav snimak moze da se napravi sa par sati bleje za kompom, jednom buksnom i flajkom kole.

Mene bas fasciniraju ti “analiticari” i teoreticari koji se vrzmaju po twitteru, a kao izvor koriste 600x500px fotografije sa socijalnih mreza. Pa jbt.

[vememah]

 

Quote

Source in the Ukrainian investigation commission says found direct evidence of #PS752 shootdown by missile about 10PM yesterday. It was a fragment of the cockpit with visible missile damage. TOR-1 struck the plane right below the cockpit, source says. https://t.co/ZllMHMZn0c

"There was no visible damage on the most parts of the plane. It's not excluded it might have been falling almost intact... But after assembling all fragments of the plane, we realized something was missing. It was the lower part of the cockpit".

'Among the fragments we identified the upper part of the cockpit. And then, about 10PM, on one of cockpit's fragments we noticed holes from a missile which penetrated the aircraft exterior. We found evidence which indicated the plane was shot down. This was a turning point'

'Russian Tor missile has struck the plane just below the front side of the cockpit. It was a direct hit, the cockpit was on fire from the inside. Immediately, the transponder which sends information about the flight, was switched off. The connection was lost'.

'So far, we don't have data whether this damage was caused by one or two missiles. It is not excluded a second missile might have hit the plane from below, near the same spot. We continue our work of assembling all fragments of the plane'

https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1215918937390616577

Edited January 12, 2020 by vememah

[vememah]

19 hours ago, Redoran said:

Razumeš li da ovo nije prvi put u istoriji čovečanstva da se tako nešto desilo?

Obaranje civilnog aviona nije.

 

Obaranje civilnog aviona koji je poleteo sa glavnog međunarodnog aerodroma u tvojoj zemlji na 20 km od njega i čiji su putnici 90% tvoji sunarodnici - svakako nije i teško će se ponoviti.

Edited January 12, 2020 by vememah

[Redoran]

10 hours ago, čekmeže said:

Nisam stručnjak ali trebalo bi da je velika razlika u brzini.

 

To, i  još mnogo toga. Posada na TORu je morala videti squawk signal sa ukrajinskog aviona, to je elementarna "friend or foe" identifikacija. Ako iz bilo kog razloga nisu videli squawk (kvar na opremi, kvar kod Ukrajinca, elektronsko ometanje itd.) sledeći korak bi bio da uzmu spisak najavljenih civilnih letova (koji su morali imati a ako ga nisu imali onda stvarno upm). Pri tome im radar jasno pokazuje da se cilj kreće standardnim odlazećim koridorom sa IKA, da se stabilno penje i povećava brzinu - opet čista indikacija da je u pitanju civilni let. U krajnjoj nuždi, mogli bi da traže dodatne informacije od nekog većeg vojnog sistema za osmatranje i navođenje kako bi bili sigurni.

 

To je u teoriji. Sad, šta smo verovatno imali u praksi:

1. Zemlju koja je već 30-40 godina u stanju permanentne uzbune i u kojoj svaka nova noć može biti ona noć u kojoj Izraelci ili Amerikanci kreću u taj dugo najavljivani i očekivani vazdušni napad na nuklearne, vojne i političke ciljeve. Komandir koji je naredio lansiranje je verovatno rođen u toj uzbuni i nikada u karijeri nije odradio "low level threat" smenu.

 

2. Zemlju sa šarolikim PVO sistemima i nivoima komandovanja istim. Vojska ima svoju PVO, Revolucionarna garda ima svoju. Pitaj boga koliko su i da li su uopšte koordinisani. TOR je sistem za tačkastu odbranu i služi kao poslednja linija zaštite važnih ciljeva, ako veliki sistemi fulaju. Možeš da ga umrežiš sa velikim sistemima i VOJIN, a možeš i da ga posadiš na neku livadu da solira. Ova posada je verovatno solirala. Kakvu obuku su imali možemo samo da nagađamo ali nisam nimalo optimista po tom pitanju. Mislim da čak imaju neki dril koji kaže da agresor neće prezati od korišćenja civilnih letova za kamufliranje svojih agresorskih letelica. I šta onda da očekuješ?

 

3. Upravo ispaljen baraž balističkih projektila na američku bazu u Iraku. U tom trenutku je bukvalno ceo svet tvitovao: "I tako je otpočeo treći svetski rat...", zašto bi se u glavama kilavo obučene iranske PVO posade dešavalo bilo šta drugačije? Ne kaže se uzalud da su u strahu velike oči. Kada ljude obuzme strah ili krene da ih puca adrenalin, dešavaju se neverovatne stvari počev od ignorisanja jasnih podataka i ukalupljivanja raspoloživih informacija u podsvesno donetu odluku da se puca.

 

 

Sve se zapravo svodi na ono što je Ravanelli kratko sumirao:

 

10 hours ago, Ravanelli said:

Zavisi koliko si obucen, neglup i uplasen

 

U današnje vreme, kada posade moraju da obrade masu informacija i donesu odluku u veoma kratkom vremenu, trebaju ti vrhunski obučeni majstori sa živcima debljim i jačim od onih sajli koje drže Most na Adi. U zemlji kao što je Iran moraš imati takve bukvalno u svakom timu koji drži prst na nekom dugmetu, inače ode sve u majčinu. Ova tragedija je bila samo pitanje dana. U svetlu onoga što je do sada isplivalo rekao bih da je mogla da se dogodi u bilo kom trenutku tokom prethodnih 10-15 godina. Nekim čudom se nije dogodilo ali onda je napetost porasla do maksimuma i eto...

[Redoran]

31 minutes ago, vememah said:

Obaranje civilnog aviona koji je poleteo sa glavnog međunarodnog aerodroma u tvojoj zemlji na 20 km od njega i čiji su putnici 90% tvoji sunarodnici - svakako nije i teško će se ponoviti.

 

Naravno da će se teško ponoviti. Da bi se lako ponovilo treba ti još jedan Iran negde na planeti, u sličnoj situaciji, pod sličnim vojnim pritiskom i svim pratećim psihozama, i sa još jednim aerodromom 25 kilometara severno, koji koriste vladini zvaničnici i ujedno je vojna baza.

 

Edit:

Kapiram da je i 1988-me neko rekao da nema šanse da se ikada više ponovi da nekoj budaletini podređeni jasno iskomuniciraju da cilj koji prate na ekranu leti kroz standardni međunarodni koridor, postepeno povećava visinu i koristi standardni civilni squawk, a kreten svejedno naredi lansiranje. Kao što vidiš, desilo se ponovo. MH17 takođe nije daleko od tog nivoa kretenizma. Kada se neko primi da puca, faktor glavnog međunarodnog aerodroma u blizini nije od bilo kakve pomoći.

[Bambula]

16 hours ago, mraki said:

Moze li neko stručan objasniti koliko je u današnje vreme lako pomešati civilni avion sa projektilom? 

Obucena posada ne moze nikako da pomesa, nisu iste brzine, napadni uglovi i sama brzina uspona, tako da obucen operater po tim parametrima lako odredi kakav je cilj u pitanju.Uz to i visina na kojoj se cilj prati govori dosta o samoj vrsti cilja. 

 

Onda opet imas i VOJIN koji osmatra celokupan VaP i u prvom stepenu obavestava o situaciji u VaP.Ne znam da li si imao prilike da vidis kako izgleda planseta, na njoj imas prikazan celokupan VaP sa svim objektima u istom.Ako si video plansetu onda si prinetio i cifre uz te objekte, te cifre upravo sluze za odredjivanje sta je cilj, a sta nije.Za svaki objekat u VaP postoji oznaka koja se uci po sablonu.Tako da ako je posada obucena greske nema. 

 

Ali ako neko vizuelno osmatra sa dozom straha, sve sto leti moze da bude cilj i da se pomesa sa X stvari. 

[vememah]

Država Ukrajina je objavila da će porodicama poginulih isplatiti po 8300 dolara.

Quote

Семьи украинцев, погибших при крушении «боинга» в Иране, получат от правительства Украины по 200 тысяч гривен (8,3 тысячи долларов). Об этом сообщил премьер-министр Украины Алексей Гончарук.

https://meduza.io/news/2020/01/12/kiev-vyplatit-po-8-3-tysyachi-dollarov-semyam-ukraintsev-pogibshih-aviakatastrofe-v-irane

Edited January 12, 2020 by vememah

[villiem]

da li sistem TOR ima potrebnu pauzu u lansiranju i kolika je i da li se radi dva ili vise lansiranja po standardnoj proceduri, zna li neko ?

[Bambula]

Za te trupne sisteme nema procedure, za presretanje cilja kao kod recimo KUB ili NEVA.Jer dejstvuje uglavnom na ciljeve u dolasku na malim do srednjim visinama, tako da nema lanisranja u paru. Ali modernizivana verzija moze da dejstvuje po 4 kanala tj cilja istovremeno.

 

Tor ima 3 rezima rada, rucni gde se cilj predaje na rucno pracenje operateru, tj prvo se bira cilj koji se rucno dovodi u zahvat uz pomoc nisanskog radara. 

 

Automatski rezim, koji sam odredjuje cilj na osnovu podataka koji uzima od VOJIN.

 

A isto tako na manjim daljinama u dolasku i odlasku moze i nezavisno da deluje uz TV navodjenje, sto je ovde najverovatnije i bilo. 

Edited January 12, 2020 by Bambula

[Redoran]

Svašta će još da ispliva ovde, tek smo počeli... Objavljen je transkript konferencije za medije na kojoj je komandant vazdušnih snaga Revolucionarne garde izneo neke, blago rečeno, neverovatne detalje. Pun tekst u spoileru, podebljao sam najluđe momente:

 

Spoiler

 

I heard about the heart-breaking crash of the Ukrainian Airline’s passenger plane when I was in the country’s west following the missile attacks operation against the US bases. When I made sure that has happened, I really wished I had died and wouldn’t see that happening. We sacrificed our lives for the people for a lifetime, and today we trade our reputation with God Almighty by appearing in front of the cameras to explain under such difficult circumstances. At the beginning of my remarks, I should say that higher-ranking bodies and the Judiciary will investigate and probe into the incident, and the information will be completed. I should say here that we accept full responsibility for the action, and will obey any decision our officials would make.

This was what I wanted to tell you first. But regarding the details of the incident, I should say; well, you know the region’s conditions remained tense and the risk of conflict was high for over a week. It was really unprecedented compared to what we saw in previous years, even since the 1979 Revolution. The risk of conflict was very high; both the Americans and the Iranian Armed Forces were on highest alert. The Americans had also threatened to hit 52 sites in Iran.

Therefore, all the offensive and defensive units were on high alert. Well, the [air defence] systems deployed in Tehran as well as the Tehran Air Defence were in the same situation. What we know from our investigations and from what our friends explained is that, well, at that night, for example from [Tuesday] evening, the level of preparedness was at wartime conditions; the highest alert level communicated by the integrated air defence to all systems. Under such circumstances, a number of air defence systems was added to Tehran’s air defence ring. The first system – which was behind the incident – was deployed in Bidganeh in western Tehran.

At several stages, the Alert Level 3, which is the highest level, is communicated and emphasized to the entire network. So all air defence systems were at highest alert level. For several times, these systems including the one involved in the incident were notified by the integrated network that cruise missiles have been fired at the country. For a couple of times, they receive reports that ‘the cruise missiles are coming, be prepared’.

So you see the systems were at the highest alert level, where you should just press a button. They had been told cruise missiles were coming, and the air defence unit engaged in this incident and fired a missile. Now we have arranged an interview with this operator, which will be released soon as part of the plan to publicize the issue. He says in this interview that “we requested for several times that the country’s airspace be cleared of [civilian] flights.’ At the Alert Level 3, this is normal; such requests are made; well our dear brothers didn’t follow up the issue for certain considerations. So the planes fly despite the wartime situation.

In those moments when the incident happens, this air defence unit realizes that there is a target – which it identified as a cruise missile – at a distance of 19 kilometres. Now I’m explaining it on the map. This is the place where the air defence unit is deployed … here is the city of Tehran … This is the air defence unit deployed here at 00:00 (Wednesday), and was prepared. And here’s the Imam Khomeini Airport. This plane takes off from here and takes this direction. It means this is the impact point. Given the information sent to this operator – that it is a wartime situation and a cruise missile has been fired – this poor guy identifies it as a cruise missile.

Well at such a situation, he was obliged to contact, get approval. This is where this operator makes the mistake; but at that moment, his communication system was apparently disrupted – whether because of jamming systems or the high traffic. For that reason, he fails to contact [his commanders]. He had 10 seconds to decide; he could hit or not hit [the target]. Under such circumstances, he decides to make that bad decision; he engages, the missile is fired, and the plane is hit at this place. Then it returns through this track, and here’s the point where it hits the ground. I must explain some points here.

Before the announcement of the Armed Forces, the country’s Aviation Organization strongly defended [its stance] and insisted no missile had hit the plane, and that the issue was under investigation. I should firstly say they were acting based on their own knowledge; they weren’t aware of this incident. I should clarify when I was informed of the incident on Wednesday morning, I immediately reported it to the country’s officials. They [in turn] told me ‘we have hit a target’.

But this symmetry made me suspicious. I was at the country’s west; I immediately headed towards Tehran. Halfway through, I called officials and told them, ‘This has happened; I think we have most likely hit our own plane’. Upon arrival in Tehran, I found that the General Staff of the Armed Forces has formed an investigation team, and has totally quarantined the team and all those involved in the issue. So we weren’t allowed to say anything to anyone. We had broken the news [to the officials], but investigation had to be carried out. It took a few days to publicize the news, but that wasn’t because anyone wanted to hide the truth; rather, this is the normal procedure; the General Staff must probe into the issue.

Well, they did it. It was Friday morning when almost all the information had been gathered and it was clear what had really happened. Well, some have made mistakes in this case; things have happened, and after that, the General Staff has publicized the issue. Look, I repeat myself; I informed the officials in the first hour I received the news; from that time on, it was up to the General Staff – which said must probe into and assess the issue. They really did it quickly, and carried out the investigation in 48 hours.

Our dear brothers at the Aviation Organization categorically rejected the possibility of a missile hitting the plane; they acted based on what they knew. I must say they were not guilty and have nothing to do with this. All the blame is on us; they’re innocent. The plane was also on its track, it made no mistake. It did the right thing, as did the Aviation Organization. Everyone did the right thing. Only one of our forces made a mistake. Since he is under our command, we are responsible for that. We must be accountable.

Following the investigations, our friends [at General Staff] publicized the issue; but the Aviation Organization, based on its own experience – after all, they are not military – argued that if a missile hits a plane, it must explode up in the air. Well they said the plane has not been destroyed; it has turned around and wanted to land. Look, since the plane has been hit at a low altitude by a short-range missile with a small warhead and proximity fuze, it has exploded at the proximity [of the aircraft]; so the plane has found the chance to fly for a while; it hasn’t exploded in the air. After hitting the ground, it has collapsed.

So no one at the Aviation Organization knew about it, and I should defend my dear brothers there. This was what really happened; so neither the Armed Forces nor the IRGC wanted to hide the truth. But there was a procedure, which is over now. We’re sorry for the incident. We share the grief with the families of our martyrs, and empathize with them. We have lost our dear ones, and are sorry. These are after all the price of the mischief, tensions, and measures of the US in the region. At that night, we were totally prepared for a full-fledged war. I was in the country’s West and was expecting a war at any time. Because there were numerous planes flying over the region; warplanes, some bombers they had brought into the region. We had the possibility of a cruise missile launch and entry of those warplanes. We had prepared ourselves for an all-out war. Well unfortunately here a great disaster has happened due to a hasty decision made by an individual.

[Asked about the authority that refused to grant no-fly zone permission] Look, I don’t want to pin the blame on anyone here. We’re just giving the details [of an incident]. The relevant authorities must investigate; they will investigate and clarify these issues. I believe under war conditions the relevant authorities must have done that [establish no-fly zone] but it didn’t happen anyway.

No look, the problem was not with the Aviation Organization. They weren’t asked to [restrict the flights]. The blame is on the Armed Forces. So whatever mistake and error made and any problem must be blamed on the Armed Forces. There was no fault on the part of the state sector and the Airports Company. They did nothing wrong. Others were responsible in this regard. They must have controlled and commanded the situation; as at that night I was commanding and controlling our missile attacks in the country’s West; similar in this sector, other brothers were in charge, and they must have controlled it.

 

 

Kome se ne čita sve, evo sažetka:

 

1. Stavili su kompletnu avijaciju i PVO u najviši stepen pripravnosti (očekivano) i oko ključnih tačaka u Teheranu rasporedili dodatne jedinice (pojačanja) koje nisu bile uvezane u objedinjeni sistem i jedino su imale radio vezu sa centralnom komandom. Ovaj što je pucao i oborio avion je bio jedna od tih gusaka u magli.

 

2. Nekoliko puta tokom noći, centralna komanda je obavestila sve jedinice da su na Iran ispaljene krstareće rakete i da se pipreme za udar. Mislim da posle ove informacije gotovo da nema potrebe za daljom diskusijom. Sve što se nakon toga našlo u vazduhu automatski je imalo status pokretne mete. Stvarno bih voleo da znam na osnovu čega su poslali ovakvo upozorenje jedinicama pod ratnom uzbunom - i čak ni tada nisu zatvorili VaP za civilni saobraćaj 

 

3. Razgovarali su sa operaterom koji je pucao i on im je rekao da je tražio zatvaranje VaP. Takođe kaže da je protumačio radarski odraz kao krstareću raketu, pokušao da uspostavi vezu sa centralnom komandom, nije uspeo i odlučio je da puca.

 

4. Avion se, nakon što je pogođen, okrenuo i pokušao povratak na aerodom ali nije uspeo. Pre pogotka se savršeno držao propisanog koridora i nije uradio ništa neobično.

 

5. Oružane snage su te noći očekivale izbijanje totalnog rata i on veruje da je u takvim okolnostima agencija za civilno vazduhoplovstvo morala dobiti naređenje da zatvori VaP ali ga nije dobila. Insistira da nije u pitanju njihova greška jer nisu dobili nalog odozgo da zatvore VaP a ne mogu samostalno da donesu odluku. Krivica je na oružanim snagama.

[3opge]

 

38 minutes ago, Redoran said:

Svašta će još da ispliva ovde, tek smo počeli... Objavljen je transkript konferencije za medije na kojoj je komandant vazdušnih snaga Revolucionarne garde izneo neke, blago rečeno, neverovatne detalje. Pun tekst u spoileru, podebljao sam najluđe momente:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

I heard about the heart-breaking crash of the Ukrainian Airline’s passenger plane when I was in the country’s west following the missile attacks operation against the US bases. When I made sure that has happened, I really wished I had died and wouldn’t see that happening. We sacrificed our lives for the people for a lifetime, and today we trade our reputation with God Almighty by appearing in front of the cameras to explain under such difficult circumstances. At the beginning of my remarks, I should say that higher-ranking bodies and the Judiciary will investigate and probe into the incident, and the information will be completed. I should say here that we accept full responsibility for the action, and will obey any decision our officials would make.

This was what I wanted to tell you first. But regarding the details of the incident, I should say; well, you know the region’s conditions remained tense and the risk of conflict was high for over a week. It was really unprecedented compared to what we saw in previous years, even since the 1979 Revolution. The risk of conflict was very high; both the Americans and the Iranian Armed Forces were on highest alert. The Americans had also threatened to hit 52 sites in Iran.

Therefore, all the offensive and defensive units were on high alert. Well, the [air defence] systems deployed in Tehran as well as the Tehran Air Defence were in the same situation. What we know from our investigations and from what our friends explained is that, well, at that night, for example from [Tuesday] evening, the level of preparedness was at wartime conditions; the highest alert level communicated by the integrated air defence to all systems. Under such circumstances, a number of air defence systems was added to Tehran’s air defence ring. The first system – which was behind the incident – was deployed in Bidganeh in western Tehran.

At several stages, the Alert Level 3, which is the highest level, is communicated and emphasized to the entire network. So all air defence systems were at highest alert level. For several times, these systems including the one involved in the incident were notified by the integrated network that cruise missiles have been fired at the country. For a couple of times, they receive reports that ‘the cruise missiles are coming, be prepared’.

So you see the systems were at the highest alert level, where you should just press a button. They had been told cruise missiles were coming, and the air defence unit engaged in this incident and fired a missile. Now we have arranged an interview with this operator, which will be released soon as part of the plan to publicize the issue. He says in this interview that “we requested for several times that the country’s airspace be cleared of [civilian] flights.’ At the Alert Level 3, this is normal; such requests are made; well our dear brothers didn’t follow up the issue for certain considerations. So the planes fly despite the wartime situation.

In those moments when the incident happens, this air defence unit realizes that there is a target – which it identified as a cruise missile – at a distance of 19 kilometres. Now I’m explaining it on the map. This is the place where the air defence unit is deployed … here is the city of Tehran … This is the air defence unit deployed here at 00:00 (Wednesday), and was prepared. And here’s the Imam Khomeini Airport. This plane takes off from here and takes this direction. It means this is the impact point. Given the information sent to this operator – that it is a wartime situation and a cruise missile has been fired – this poor guy identifies it as a cruise missile.

Well at such a situation, he was obliged to contact, get approval. This is where this operator makes the mistake; but at that moment, his communication system was apparently disrupted – whether because of jamming systems or the high traffic. For that reason, he fails to contact [his commanders]. He had 10 seconds to decide; he could hit or not hit [the target]. Under such circumstances, he decides to make that bad decision; he engages, the missile is fired, and the plane is hit at this place. Then it returns through this track, and here’s the point where it hits the ground. I must explain some points here.

Before the announcement of the Armed Forces, the country’s Aviation Organization strongly defended [its stance] and insisted no missile had hit the plane, and that the issue was under investigation. I should firstly say they were acting based on their own knowledge; they weren’t aware of this incident. I should clarify when I was informed of the incident on Wednesday morning, I immediately reported it to the country’s officials. They [in turn] told me ‘we have hit a target’.

But this symmetry made me suspicious. I was at the country’s west; I immediately headed towards Tehran. Halfway through, I called officials and told them, ‘This has happened; I think we have most likely hit our own plane’. Upon arrival in Tehran, I found that the General Staff of the Armed Forces has formed an investigation team, and has totally quarantined the team and all those involved in the issue. So we weren’t allowed to say anything to anyone. We had broken the news [to the officials], but investigation had to be carried out. It took a few days to publicize the news, but that wasn’t because anyone wanted to hide the truth; rather, this is the normal procedure; the General Staff must probe into the issue.

Well, they did it. It was Friday morning when almost all the information had been gathered and it was clear what had really happened. Well, some have made mistakes in this case; things have happened, and after that, the General Staff has publicized the issue. Look, I repeat myself; I informed the officials in the first hour I received the news; from that time on, it was up to the General Staff – which said must probe into and assess the issue. They really did it quickly, and carried out the investigation in 48 hours.

Our dear brothers at the Aviation Organization categorically rejected the possibility of a missile hitting the plane; they acted based on what they knew. I must say they were not guilty and have nothing to do with this. All the blame is on us; they’re innocent. The plane was also on its track, it made no mistake. It did the right thing, as did the Aviation Organization. Everyone did the right thing. Only one of our forces made a mistake. Since he is under our command, we are responsible for that. We must be accountable.

Following the investigations, our friends [at General Staff] publicized the issue; but the Aviation Organization, based on its own experience – after all, they are not military – argued that if a missile hits a plane, it must explode up in the air. Well they said the plane has not been destroyed; it has turned around and wanted to land. Look, since the plane has been hit at a low altitude by a short-range missile with a small warhead and proximity fuze, it has exploded at the proximity [of the aircraft]; so the plane has found the chance to fly for a while; it hasn’t exploded in the air. After hitting the ground, it has collapsed.

So no one at the Aviation Organization knew about it, and I should defend my dear brothers there. This was what really happened; so neither the Armed Forces nor the IRGC wanted to hide the truth. But there was a procedure, which is over now. We’re sorry for the incident. We share the grief with the families of our martyrs, and empathize with them. We have lost our dear ones, and are sorry. These are after all the price of the mischief, tensions, and measures of the US in the region. At that night, we were totally prepared for a full-fledged war. I was in the country’s West and was expecting a war at any time. Because there were numerous planes flying over the region; warplanes, some bombers they had brought into the region. We had the possibility of a cruise missile launch and entry of those warplanes. We had prepared ourselves for an all-out war. Well unfortunately here a great disaster has happened due to a hasty decision made by an individual.

[Asked about the authority that refused to grant no-fly zone permission] Look, I don’t want to pin the blame on anyone here. We’re just giving the details [of an incident]. The relevant authorities must investigate; they will investigate and clarify these issues. I believe under war conditions the relevant authorities must have done that [establish no-fly zone] but it didn’t happen anyway.

No look, the problem was not with the Aviation Organization. They weren’t asked to [restrict the flights]. The blame is on the Armed Forces. So whatever mistake and error made and any problem must be blamed on the Armed Forces. There was no fault on the part of the state sector and the Airports Company. They did nothing wrong. Others were responsible in this regard. They must have controlled and commanded the situation; as at that night I was commanding and controlling our missile attacks in the country’s West; similar in this sector, other brothers were in charge, and they must have controlled it.

 

 

Kome se ne čita sve, evo sažetka:

 

1. Stavili su kompletnu avijaciju i PVO u najviši stepen pripravnosti (očekivano) i oko ključnih tačaka u Teheranu rasporedili dodatne jedinice (pojačanja) koje nisu bile uvezane u objedinjeni sistem i jedino su imale radio vezu sa centralnom komandom. Ovaj što je pucao i oborio avion je bio jedna od tih gusaka u magli.

 

2. Nekoliko puta tokom noći, centralna komanda je obavestila sve jedinice da su na Iran ispaljene krstareće rakete i da se pipreme za udar. Mislim da posle ove informacije gotovo da nema potrebe za daljom diskusijom. Sve što se nakon toga našlo u vazduhu automatski je imalo status pokretne mete. Stvarno bih voleo da znam na osnovu čega su poslali ovakvo upozorenje jedinicama pod ratnom uzbunom - i čak ni tada nisu zatvorili VaP za civilni saobraćaj 

 

3. Razgovarali su sa operaterom koji je pucao i on im je rekao da je tražio zatvaranje VaP. Takođe kaže da je protumačio radarski odraz kao krstareću raketu, pokušao da uspostavi vezu sa centralnom komandom, nije uspeo i odlučio je da puca.

 

4. Avion se, nakon što je pogođen, okrenuo i pokušao povratak na aerodom ali nije uspeo. Pre pogotka se savršeno držao propisanog koridora i nije uradio ništa neobično.

 

5. Oružane snage su te noći očekivale izbijanje totalnog rata i on veruje da je u takvim okolnostima agencija za civilno vazduhoplovstvo morala dobiti naređenje da zatvori VaP ali ga nije dobila. Insistira da nije u pitanju njihova greška jer nisu dobili nalog odozgo da zatvore VaP a ne mogu samostalno da donesu odluku. Krivica je na oružanim snagama.

 

na osnovu svega ovoga ja zakljucujem da je "centralnu komandu" malo boleo kurac za "slucajno" oborene civilne avione.

mislim, u tom jebenom haosu.

ili ti imas neko drugo vidjenje?

 

 

.

 

 

Edited January 13, 2020 by 3opge

[vememah]

2 hours ago, 3opge said:

na osnovu svega ovoga ja zakljucujem da je "centralnu komandu" malo boleo kurac za "slucajno" oborene civilne avione.

 

 

Ako je ovo tačno, onda su imali ovakav boldrikovski plan: smanjujemo verovatnoću da Ameri gađaju, a i ako gađaju, možda nam se posreći pa obore civilni avion - dakle win-win, naravno ne uzimajući u obzir da je verovatnoća da oni sami obore civilni avion u tim okolnostima višestruko veća.

Edited January 13, 2020 by vememah

[ObiW]

I na kraju ko je oborio taj avion? PVO iranskih oružanih snaga ili div-ljudi Revolucionarne Garde?