Grčka - enormni dug, protesti oko mera štednje

[Dr Arslanagić]

isto

[vememah]

To je jedini koji sam našao, pretpostavljam da će proraditi, bar se promenila zamrznuta slika malopre.

 

Motajte unazad, to radi, ako želite da vidite deo dok je radio.

 

Proradio, pada kiša.

Edited June 30, 2015 by vememah

[Budja]

 

The labour inspection of the Greek ministry of work and social insurance says that it has been receiving dozens of complaints since early this morning about employers trying to force their employees to participate in the "yes" demonstration this evening. The attempt appears to be well organised and the employees are told to gather at certain places where they will be given placards and whistles and be marched to Syntagma. Those who don't go are threatened by immediate dismissal.

The attempts to force employees to the demonstration are made at all sorts of companies, mostly big and medium-sized. The ministry mentions shipping companies, companies trading in foodstuffs, German companies trading electric goods and insurance companies explicitly, but adds that the complaints come "from everywhere imaginable".

 

Propaganda ili istina, pitanje je sad.

[vememah]

Evo poređenja jučerašnjeg i današnjeg (gore je jučerašnji):

 

 

Izvor za jučerašnji isto Rusi: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mvKZy9rIZOA

Edited June 30, 2015 by vememah

[Dr Arslanagić]

Propaganda ili istina, pitanje je sad.

 

e, tu počinju ona trvenja o kojima je pisao prospero

[yolo]

pa naravno da ce da bude vise lozaca na NO mitingu ali sajlent mejdzoriti je YES. vadafakis i cipuras nista nisu naucili od pravoslavnog brata slobe.

[vememah]

THE SHORT ANSWER

What’s the Timetable to a Grexit?

 

We are in the climax of Greece’s debt crisis. It has been a slow-burn crisis, a five-year-long string of high-drama confrontations amid tedious talks. These next three weeks are crucial. The endgame is July 20, when Greece must repay a bond to the European Central Bank.

 

Barring a last-minute U-turn by Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to accept the economic policies that Greece’s creditors are demanding as the condition of further bailout loans, here is how that endgame would look.

 

What happens today, June 30?

The bailout program officially expires and a payment of €1.55 billion ($1.73 billion) to the IMF falls due.

 

Does that matter?

Barring a magical rabbit springing from a hat, Greece will miss the IMF payment. The IMF will be mad, but the missed payment has few practical consequences. The eurozone bailout fund has the option of declaring Greece’s rescue loans in default and demanding accelerated repayment, but that would be a nuclear option it likely wouldn’t exercise—at least not right away. The bailout fund is controlled by eurozone finance ministers.

 

What about the bailout program expiry?

Here’s where it gets tricky. Expiry could change the European Central Bank’s view on its emergency lifeline to Greek banks. The banks are Greece’s biggest vulnerability.

 

How so?

Greek banks have relied for months on emergency lending from the central bank. They have scant cash and few assets they can quickly sell, so when a depositor asks for a withdrawal, they must borrow from the central bank to be able to give the depositor cash.

 

Greeks have made €35 billion in withdrawals this year through May, the most recent available data. Non-Greek banks have pulled nearly another €30 billion of loans. The Greek banks have less than €2 billion in cash.

 

On Sunday, the ECB froze the emergency lifeline at around €89 billion. Unable to get more cash to give to depositors, banks shut Monday. To reopen the banks, that lifeline needs to be turned back on.

 

Will it?

It is difficult to imagine the ECB increasing the lifeline without the Greek government and the European creditors agreeing to a deal.

 

The ECB is right now taking a middle course. Since banks need more money every day to cope with withdrawals, freezing the lifeline shuts the banks but doesn’t kill them. The lifeline comes in the form of loans to the banks that are regularly renewed; in effect, the ECB is saying you can’t have any more loans but we’ll keep renewing the ones you have.

 

The tougher course would be to end the lifeline entirely and demand that the loans be repaid when they come due.

 

Why might the lifeline end?

The lifeline, called Emergency Liquidity Assistance, or ELA, is highly flexible. The rules say that the banks receiving it must be “solvent,” but otherwise the ECB has broad latitude. The ECB also doesn’t lend for free—it has required the Greek banks to post assets as collateral to get ELA.

 

So two things could kill the lifeline: Insolvency of the banks, or a determination that the collateral they are posting isn’t adequate. Let’s take them one at a time.

 

By the books, the Greek banks are solvent. They have assets, primarily in the form of loans, that exceed their liabilities, primarily deposits and central-bank lending.

 

That, of course, could change—perhaps many of their loans need to be written off or reduced in value. Perhaps the deferred tax assets (basically, promises that they’ll get tax refunds or credits in the future from the Greek government) they hold aren’t worth as much as they imagined.

 

The banks don’t have heavy holdings of Greek government debt: €13.8 billion out of a total assets of nearly €400 billion—even if that debt went to zero the banks would probably remain solvent.

 

Collateral is another matter. The ELA is secured by a hodgepodge of collateral: some of the banks’ loans, some covered bonds, a little bit of government debt. For the four big banks, though, a special kind of government-guaranteed bond makes up a large chunk of the collateral.

 

That means to keep ELA going, the ECB must primarily assess whether the government’s guarantee is solid enough to make the collateral adequate. It’s a judgment call.

 

So would bailout expiry end the lifeline?

Probably not, especially when there is a referendum scheduled in five days. The ECB is loath to be seen as interfering in politics. The formal end of the bailout program doesn’t directly affect the banks’ solvency. Some on the ECB’s board might argue that it hurts the government’s guarantee and thus the adequacy of the special bonds. But the ECB could credibly keep the lifeline frozen at least through the referendum.

 

How much longer?

July 20. That day, €3.5 billion in Greek-government bonds held by the central bank fall due. If Greece doesn’t pay, the ECB would be hard-pressed to keep ELA alive. An actual payment failure makes the judgment call about the government’s guarantee much clearer.

 

What happens if ELA is ended outright?

The banks collapse as soon as the ELA loans come due. The banks cannot repay them. So the collateral they posted would be seized. They posted more than a euro in collateral for each euro in lending, and thus they collapse.

 

When would the famous “Grexit” come?

Right around then. It could be as soon as July 21, if the loans granted under ELA are overnight loans (the exact maturity isn’t known). If the banks have collapsed and there is no central-bank support, the government would have to create a new currency to restart the financial system and make payments.

 

Can it be avoided?

Yes, but time is excruciatingly short. The referendum is July 5. If there is a “Yes” vote, Mr. Tsipras has hinted he would resign. A new government would need to be formed, a deal signed, legislation passed and money disbursed from the creditors in time to make the July 20 payment.

 

If there is a “No” vote, Mr. Tsipras would presumably try to negotiate a better deal on the back of the popular support. And again, a deal would have to be reached, legislation passed and money disbursed by July 20.

 

Could the ECB forestall Grexit at the last minute?

If it wanted to be really, really, really nice it could come up with a way to overlook a missed July 20 payment. Perhaps it could invoke a grace period. And Standard & Poor’s, the rating firm, has said a default on the ECB-held bonds would not be enough to place the Greek government in default. (S&P says its ratings reflect a borrower’s repayment of commercial creditors only.) Perhaps that’s enough cover for the ECB to say the government’s guarantee is still good.

 

But these are Hail Mary passes highly likely to be swatted down by the ECB’s board.

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/briefly/2015/06/30/whats-the-timetable-to-a-grexit-the-short-answer/

 

 

[vememah]

Grčka vlada napravila sajt o referendumu koji se odmah srušio.

 

Greeks launch referendum website

 

Predictably, it's already crashed under the weight of traffic, but here it is http://www.referendum2015gov.gr/

 

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11707250/Greek-crisis-live-Greece-promises-not-to-pay-the-IMF.html

 

Evo kako su Grci došli do tih 29 milijardi koje su danas tražili, to nisu svi njihovi dugovi u naredne dve (i po?) godine, već pored toga planiraju da urade debt swap sa dugom ECB-u.

 

What the Greeks are requesting money for

Athens ESM loan would cover the country's external and internal financing needs for the next two years. They've handily laid them out in a table here. Interestingly they don't seem to include maturing debts to the European Central Bank, which amount to €6.5bn in July and August alone. This suggests that they hope these bonds will be paid off through a debt swap which the government has long called for.

 

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11707250/Greek-crisis-live-Greece-promises-not-to-pay-the-IMF.html

 

Edited June 30, 2015 by vememah

[vememah]

Sada ipak radi, ali naravno nije neutralan, pošto sadrži Ciprasova obraćanja javnosti i pobijanje Junkerovih izjava. Naravno, to se posle onakvog idiotskog glasačkog listića nije ni moglo očekivati.

 

Okačili su i predloge kreditora (verovatno starija verzija od one koju je EK okačila na svom sajtu), uključujući i analizu održivosti duga (tu tabelu su neki ranije kačili po tviteru):

http://www.referendum2015gov.gr/why-a-referendum/%CE%B5%CE%BB%CE%BB%CE%B7%CE%BD%CE%B9%CE%BA%CE%AC-%CE%B4%CE%B5%CE%BB%CF%84%CE%B9%CE%BF-%CF%84%CF%85%CF%80%CE%BF%CF%85/

Edited June 30, 2015 by vememah

[vememah]

Malteški premijer u svom parlamentu rekao da Grci nude zamrzavanje referenduma:

 

Greece has told negotiators in the EU it would be willing to suspend the referendum if negotiations were reopened and there was an offer and agreement on required prior actions, Prime Minister Joseph Muscat said this evening.

 

In a statement to Parliament this evening, Dr Muscat said this could be a breakthrough, a game by Greece to gain more time or political posturing.

 

He said it was too early for the Maltese government to pronounce itself on the matter as events were still developing.

 

http://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/20150630/local/greece-says-it-is-willing-to-suspend-referendum-pm.574718

 

Junker tvrdi da se dešavaju bitne stvari koje će iznenaditi novinare, i Šulc priča o istorijskom danu:

 

Juncker: 'Important events going on in Athens'

By EUOBSERVER

TODAY, 19:34

"Important events for which you are not prepared are going on in Athens, with results which probably won't match articles you wrote," EU Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker told a journalists' meeting in Brussels, while European Parliament president Martin Schulz said that "what is happening today is historic".

https://euobserver.com/tickers/129394

Edited June 30, 2015 by vememah

[Ros]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQBCFVPEl7Y

[Gandalf]

FRANKFURT — Greece is expected late Tuesday to add its name to a roster that includes some of the world’s poorest and worst governed nations, including Iraq, Sudan, Somalia and Zimbabwe.

 

Those are a few of the countries that have missed payments to the International Monetary Fund — as Greece is likely to do Tuesday. The deadline for the loan payment of 1.6 billion euros, or $1.8 billion, is 6 p.m. Washington time.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/01/business/dealbook/greece-debt-imf-payment.html

[Prospero]

Wolfango Piccoli of Teneo Intelligence reckons the application for a third bailout today was just “domestic consumption” ahead of Sunday’s vote.

 

 

The most realistic scenario remains a Greek application for a third program at some point after the referendum on Sunday – supposing that the “YES” vote prevails.

 

The request for a €30bn loan means Tsipras is betting on a “win-win situation”, Wolf reckons:

 

If the counter offer were to be accepted by the creditors (unlikely), this would be positive given it entails debt relief; if the offer is rejected (highly likely), he can re-unify his cabinet, blaming Greece’s European partners and boosting the “NO” vote ahead of Sunday.

 

However...

 

the increasingly erratic activism in Athens over the last hours also reveals that some in the Greek government are deeply worried now that it becomes clear that the Greek bet on the lenders’ fear of contagion has not played out

+1 na analizu

[aram]

Junker tvrdi da se dešavaju bitne stvari koje će iznenaditi novinare, i Šulc priča o istorijskom danu:

 

wtf? nasilno svrgavanje levice sa vlasti smo u grckoj vec videli...

[vememah]

Finski minfin:

 

 

Evrogrupa i sutra?!?

Edited June 30, 2015 by vememah