Ekonomija i Corona virus pandemija

[eumeswil]

To be clear, none of this is to suggest that these measures will be sufficient or effective – much is coming far too late, and inevitably our hollowed-out health services will be overwhelmed. Nor does it mean that many people, especially the poor, will not suffer – millions have already been laid off while others are forced to work in unsafe conditions. Still less does it mean that right-wing governments have suddenly found socialism – unless ‘disaster socialism’ counts.

Nor is this transformation happening at the same rate everywhere. The deathly rot of European integration is hard to shake off. The European Central Bank, bulwark of the EU’s constitutionalised neoliberalism, was sluggish in announcing QE measures, with its governor even deepening Italy’s agony by implying she would not shore up Rome’s bond yields. EU governments have also been quicker to impose authoritarian social controls than to realise that fiscal, not monetary, stimulus is urgently required. Nonetheless, even the über-austere German government is set to announce a €500bn rescue package, tearing up its ‘fiscal rules’.

We are clearly living through an epochal moment, with parallels to World War II – though not the ‘Blitz spirit’ nonsense being peddled elsewhere. It was WWII that finally ended the Great Depression, thanks to state-led mobilisation and coordination of the economy. Ravaged populations clearly saw through the laissez-faire lies of the 1930s: there was an alternative to the market; the state clearly did have extraordinary powers to meet collective needs and goals. There could be no return to ‘business as usual’. The post-war welfare state was born of this recognition, in the shadow of Stalin’s Soviet regime, which had already proven the power of the state in its own bloody fashion.

Today, the People’s Republic of China casts that shadow. China’s communist regime is authoritarian, brutal and ugly. Contrary to western imaginaries, its governance regime is also highly dysfunctional, riven by internal competition and bureaucratic dislocation – which impeded full recognition of the COVID-19 outbreak and its management. Nonetheless, the regime eventually managed to contain the virus, and many western liberals and leftists now demand Chinese-style lockdowns. Beijing now has sufficient bandwidth to troll western governments and magnanimously dispense assistance to stricken states like Iran and Italy – with tech oligarch Jack Ma even dispatching aid to the United States – while the EU rejects Italian pleas for assistance and even fines Rome for overspending.

Right now, there is widespread hostility to China – boiling over into xenophobia and even appalling racist attacks on ethnic Asians. But this hostility may not last. The US’s utterly shambolic response to Covid-19 will increasingly stand in stark contrast in China’s apparent authoritarian efficiency. And while China dispenses aid, the US is flying testing gear out of Italy and allegedly trying to take over foreign companies researching vaccines, in order to serve ‘America first’. The era of American hegemony is clearly dead and buried. Other Western governments presumably realise that if they cannot successfully manage the pandemic, they will be judged against a despotic regime and found wanting. This is yet another spur to abandon liberal shibboleths wherever necessary.

The Left Blindsided

All of this is highly disorienting for a Left that has become increasingly obsessed with ‘#resistance,’ instinctively opposing whatever the Right does while lacking any truly systematic alternative.

The problem is exemplified by acclaimed critical theorist Giorgio Agamben’s Foucauldian ranting against the ‘frantic, irrational, and absolutely unwarranted emergency measures adopted for a supposed epidemic’, while his countrymen die in droves.

Even mainstream leftist commentators are blindsided. The ink is barely dry on their op-eds – ‘well, okay, the government helped x, but what about y?’ – before yet another, larger aid package is announced. The anti-austerity Left has been exclusively focused on demanding higher government spending for so long, it hardly knows how to respond when it gets it. In Britain’s general election last December, the Labour Party ran on a platform promising adherence to fiscal rules which the Conservative government has torn up. As one Twitter wit put it so nicely, the far-left has been calling for ‘fully automated luxury communism,’ but Boris Johnson has provided ‘quarantine socialism in one country’.

This matters precisely because the old order is dead and the new is being forged piecemeal, day-by-day. Ruling elites do not know how this crisis ends. They are innovating on a daily basis, making it up as they go along. In this sense, everything is up in the air. The future is up for grabs – for good or bad.

In a society and state as dysfunctional as that of the United States, where the hollowing out of welfare and democracy has been deepest, it is easy to envisage an authoritarian trajectory. The rich are already panic-fleeing the cities. The frayed social bonds, deep poverty and widespread gun ownership of many American cities do not mix easily with food shortages and draconian containment measures. It is not fanciful to imagine severe social unrest, requiring the military to restore order. Nor is it clear how the US presidential election will be held on schedule in December, President Trump’s confidence that the virus will ‘go away’ by April notwithstanding.

The UK government’s proposed emergency measures also entail the biggest ever expansion of executive power in peacetime. Liberals are understandably (and rightly) concerned about civil liberties. But the Left should be even more concerned about democracy. In France, a ‘temporary’ state of emergency declared in 2015 was extended six times, then most of the measures were effectively made permanent through a new anti-terrorism bill. As the brutal repression of the gilets jaunes demonstrates, this has routinised despotic behaviour. The Left should not be calling for a national government to help steer an authoritarian state, but championing democratic control.

Indeed, perhaps the most terrible question posed by the pandemic is: how can democracy function when the citizenry cannot? A new order is being improvised primarily by right-wing politicians, while the citizens are stuck indoors, hoarding toilet paper and watching Netflix. Curbing the disease requires social distancing, but shaping the future requires collective action. World War Two birthed an order that favoured workers because they were well-organised through unions and parties. Today, the best our enfeebled unions and social-democratic parties seem to hope for is a new corporatism, which is in fact being created by the Right for its own purposes.

It is not even clear whether our already hollowed-out representative democracies can hold governments to account. Australia has suspended parliamentary sittings until August. The British parliament, already afflicted by the virus, has dispersed for a long recess after waving through a bill granting unprecedented peacetime powers to the executive.

These are urgent questions for the Left, for which there are no immediate or easy answers. But it is clear that democracy should be the focus. The argument should never have been about more or less state intervention in the economy, but in a moment when even that argument has been settled by the right, what now distinguishes the left? It can only be a demand for democratic, popular control over that intervention, to ensure that it serves the interests of workers, rather than simply lining the pockets of owners of capital and property. But for that to be meaningful, it requires the active involvement of the people – not their passive resignation to perpetual quarantine.

This is difficult precisely because the end of history has attenuated our civic and political life, leaving most of us atomised and fearful even before Covid-19 struck. The urgent priority is to ensure that basic democratic functions are maintained or restored as soon as possible – to demonstrate that democratic continuity is not incompatible with public health.

The longer-term task is to reconstitute a sense of collective subjectivity out of this crisis. One glimmer of hope is the thousands of mutual aid groups springing up in response to the crisis. Inspirational organising is happening spontaneously, largely independently of the state and political parties. Through these groups, many people are getting to know their neighbours for the first time and rediscovering the basic practices of solidarity. While their immediate task is just to help people survive the next few months, they could well be the basis of grassroots democratic renewal when the lockdowns are over.

[Dankan Ajdaho]

FED nadalje štampa pare koliko kome treba 

 

Slobi da dignu spomenik.

[keitel]

https://fosmedia.me/mobile/infos/ekonomija/zaposleni-u-aromi-dobili-povecanje-plate-tokom-trajanja-epidemije-covid-19

 

Zna neko nešto više o njihovoj vlasničkoj strukturi?

[Luther]

Nekoliko firmi iz CG (Kotor i Podgorica). Naziv u APR: DOMAĆA TRGOVINA DRUŠTVO SA OGRANIČENOM ODGOVORNOŠĆU BEOGRAD (RAKOVICA) pa možeš da vidiš detalje.

[Peter Fan]

O ovome je bilo ragovora tamo na Tramaprinoj temi. a evo juce iz UN:

--

 

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization warned of global food shortages caused by measures to stem the spread of the novel coronavirus.

"The worst that can happen is that governments restrict the flow of food," Maximo Torero, chief economist of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, told the Guardian.

--

Another measure that could threaten the world's food supply is that nations have issued "stay at home" orders at varying levels of enforcement. If agriculture workers are legally unable to harvest crops, it could cause a lapse in food flow.

"Coronavirus is affecting the labour force and the logistical problems are becoming very important," said Torero.

"We need to have policies in place so the labour force can keep doing their job. Protect people too, but we need the labour force. Major countries have yet to implement these sorts of policies to ensure that food can keep moving.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/un-warns-of-global-food-shortage-caused-by-coronavirus-measures-report/ar-BB11LNUp?li=BBnb4R7

 

[Indy]

 

 

[Redoran]

13 hours ago, Peter Fan said:

"The worst that can happen is that governments restrict the flow of food," Maximo Torero, chief economist of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, told the Guardian.

--

Another measure that could threaten the world's food supply is that nations have issued "stay at home" orders at varying levels of enforcement. If agriculture workers are legally unable to harvest crops, it could cause a lapse in food flow.

 

 

Ovo je malkice nategnuto. Nijedna država neće dozvoliti da joj žetva propadne. Svi koji su uključeni u taj proces biće izuzeti od restriktivnih mera. Isto se odnosi na zaposlene u proizvodnji hrane koju svaka država tretira kao strateški resurs u slučaju rata i prirodnih katastrofa.

 

U problemu će se naći zemlje koje uvoze hranu ukoliko zemlje proizvođači dođu u problem sa lancem snabdevanja pa proizvodnja opadne. To bi u najboljem slučaju izazvalo skok cena (već skupe) uvozne hrane a u najgorem slučaju bi moglo da se desi da zemlje proizvođači ograniče ili zabrane izvoz hrane.

[Taihoskopija]

https://www.ekapija.com/news/2835018/nove-mere-koje-drzava-sprema-za-privatni-sektor-tromesecna-pomoc-od-30000

[3opge]

prodaja raznih artikala u odnosu na isti period prosle godine:

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/27/822650816/guess-whats-flying-off-shelves-now-hair-dye

[mlatko]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-29/death-of-german-finance-official-linked-to-virus-crisis?utm_source=url_link

Još jedna žrtva korona virusa... ovo ne obećava što se tiče Nemačkog pristupa krizi

Inviato dal mio Mi 9 Lite utilizzando Tapatalk

[Ravanelli]

Uf, uzas

Stvarno je uzasno tesko za bilo koga na toj poziciji sada

[MocaVukotic]

Izvinjavam se na trivijalnosti, dal neko zna, a u vezi sa moratorijumom na porez, sta se desava sa firmama koje su u reprogramu za vreme ovog sranja? 

[noskich]

https://www.in4s.net/kad-prodje-pandemija-zapad-ce-kupiti-male-i-slabe-nastampanim-dolarima-i-evrima/

 

Кад прође пандемија: Запад ће купити мале и слабе наштампаним доларима и еврима

Систем већ деценију функционише од данас до сутра – новац се непрекидно штампа и камате се одржавају на апсурдно ниском нивоу какав није виђен у модерној историји. Стари дугови се враћају само новим задуживањем, али неодржив раст компанијских дугова почиње да урушава финансијски систем. 

[Ravanelli]

Procene raznih kuća za GDP kretanja. gde nema oznake to je za celu 2020

 

uglavnom mali rast svetskog gdp-a ili recesija

evropa masakr

amerika za sada nešto ispod nivoa 2008 (-4,5%)

 

 

Goldman Sachs	Свет -1%, Европа -9%, САД -3,8%, Кина +3%, Индија +3,3%
Deutsche Bank	Kина Q1 -32%, Eвропа Q2 -24%, САД Q2 -13% У другој половини године следи брз опоравак по тзв „V“ криви
JPMorgan	Eвропа и САД Q1 -2% Q2 -3%
Bank of America	САД Q1 +0,5% Q2 -12%. 2020 -0,8%
Morgan Stanley	Свет +0,3%, САД -3%, ЕУ -5%
McKinsey	Свет -1,5%, САД -2,4 %, ЕУ -4,4%

 

 

 

 

ono što je sranje je što postoji korelacija između veličine recesije i njenog trajanja, naravno

samo ovo može da bude akutni pad tražnje, pa rebound bude brz. biće interesantno jako videti po kojoj krivi će ići oporavak U, V ili L

 

[pasha]

Quote

On će obuhvatiti urgentnu finansijsku injekciju za velika i mala preduzeća, zanatlije, paore, domaćinstva i građane generalno. Svi oni mogu da računaju na olakšice i konkretnu pomoć, jer, kako je poručio šef države Aleksandar Vučić, imamo stabilnu ekonomsku i fiskalnu situaciju, a zahvaljujući monetarnoj politici NBS i visoke devizne rezerve, stabilan kurs dinara, umeren nivo inflacije.

 

Pa sada da li je dobra fiskalna i monetarna politika, bice na proveri.

 

 

 

Edited March 30, 2020 by pasha