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Prospero

Mutti nije baš dobro prošla:
 

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Alternative for Germany (AfD) supporters celebrate the announcement of the first predictions in the parliamentary elections in the states of Baden-Wuerttemberg, Saxony-Anhalt and Rhineland-Palatinate | EPA/Sebastian Willnow

Angela Merkel’s conservatives take a beating in state elections
The right-wing AfD triumphs with its anti-immigrant rhetoric.


By
JANOSCH DELCKER
3/13/16, 9:29 PM CET

BERLIN – On the evening of “Super Sunday,” as Germany’s media dubbed the regional elections in three of the 16 federal states, there were three winners and one big loser: Angela Merkel and her Christian Democrats.
The incumbent state premier in Baden-Württemberg, Winfried Kretschmann of the Green party, and his counterpart in Rhineland Palatinate, Malu Dreyer of the Social Democrats (SPD), both managed to stay in power.
 
Meanwhile, the right-wing anti-immigrant party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) scored a major triumph, extending its representation to eight or half of the state parliaments in Germany.
If the elections were indeed a quasi-referendum on Merkel’s refugee policy, as they were widely viewed, then the conservative chancellor has some thinking to do.

According to an Infratest exit poll released by public broadcaster ARD immediately after the voting ended, Merkel’s CDU garnered only around 27.5 percent of the votes in its former stronghold of Baden-Württemberg, the third-largest German state, losing to the Green party which won at least 32 percent.

It was the worst defeat Merkel’s party had suffered in the state since 1952.
 
In Rhineland-Palatinate, CDU candidate Julia Klöckner lost to the SPD incumbent Dreyer by around 5 percentage points (projected 32.5 percent vs  37.5 percent) — a wider-than-predicted margin. That was a huge reversal from November 2015, when the CDU was 10 points ahead of the SPD.

“We worked our way up bit by bit,” Dreyer said after the results were announced. “Today, I will celebrate.”
 
For weeks, it seemed possible that the CDU would be able to pull out a win in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate, despite the growing criticism against her refugee policy from within her own ranks. A victory in either of the states would have helped her to cling on to her controversial policy. The CDU, however, was able to keep power only in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, taking approximately 29 percent of the vote, according to exit polls.
In all three states, the AfD made significant inroads. In Saxony-Anhalt, it emerged as the second-largest party with 23 percent of the votes.

“The AfD is strong — we did not want it to be this strong,” said Reiner Haseloff, the CDU state premier of Saxony-Anhalt, indirectly blaming the Merkel administration for the rise of the AfD. “We didn’t want them in the parliament in the first place. This raises a national discussion. We need a national position to show people how we will carry on.”
But the AfD had no such doubts.

“We have a clear position when it comes to refugees policy,” said Alexander Gauland, deputy head of the AfD, after the election results became coming in. “We don’t want to take in refugees.”
In all three states, voter turnout was considerably higher than during the last elections, according to official estimates.

In Rhineland-Palatinate, the turnout jumped to 56 percent from 43 percent in 2011. In Saxony-Anhalt, around 35 percent went to vote, some 7 points higher, while in Baden-Württemberg around 35.5 percent of all voters showed up, almost 5 points higher than five years ago.

 

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Eraserhead

Nista to ne valja. Posebno ne razlog.

Edited by Eraserhead

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Prospero

Još par detalja:
 
 

Angela Merkel suffers dramatic setback in regional elections
By Stefan Wagstyl in Berlin


German chancellor Angela Merkel has suffered a dramatic setback as voters backed rightwing populist forces in regional elections seen as a referendum on her contentious refugee policies.
The anti-immigration Alternative für Deutschland party looked set to beat forecasts in all regions voting on Sunday — and score the biggest electoral success for the populist right since the rebirth of German democracy after the second world war. In Saxony-Anhalt it was on track to record the best regional result of any German populist rightwing party since 1945.

The domestic setback comes as Ms Merkel is struggling abroad, battling to secure EU partners’ support for a controversial deal with Turkey to staunch the migrant inflows. French president François Hollande, her most important EU ally, voiced concern at the weekend over a key aspect of the planned Turkey deal — visa liberalisation.

According to projections based on early results, the AfD won 24 per cent of the vote in the depressed eastern region of Saxony-Anhalt, where the radical right has long been active. But it also exceeded expectations in wealthy western Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate, scoring 15 per cent and 12 per cent, respectively.

The AfD mobilised droves of former non-voters, boosting voter participation as high as 72 per cent, far above normal levels for regional polls — a sign of how deeply the refugee crisis is shaking Germany. However, the rightwing vote remains far lower than in some other EU states, notably France.

Celebrating her success, Frauke Petry, the AfD’s co-leader, said: “We have fundamental problems in Germany which have led to this election result.”

Ms Merkel’s CDU failed in its hopes of winning back power in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate, two former bastions, and was left struggling to form a government in Saxony-Anhalt.
Michael Grosse-Brömer, a CDU parliamentary whip, argued that the party still had a chance of joining coalition governments in all three regions, but he conceded: “It’s not been easy tonight.”

The social democrats, Ms Merkel’s coalition partners, who have strongly backed her refugee policies, fared even worse, being driven into fourth place behind the AfD, in Baden-Württemberg and Saxony-Anhalt. The SPD salvaged a little battered pride in Rhineland-Palatinate, where it narrowly retained power, beating off a CDU challenge led by Julia Klöckner, a rising political star.

The crumb of comfort for Ms Merkel is that all three CDU lead candidates distanced themselves from the chancellor during the campaign by backing tougher refugee policies, such as stronger German border controls. Their electoral setbacks may help Ms Merkel when she has to confront CDU sceptics.

Ms Merkel also faces pressure from an increasingly discontent German public and fellow EU states such as Austria, that have openly challenged her open-borders approach by closing frontiers.
The arguments could multiply as Ms Merkel and other fellow leaders prepare for the next EU migration summit later this week.

If the predictions prove right, the AfD will now be represented in eight of Germany’s 16 regional assemblies.

In the last rightwing surge in the early 1990s, also fuelled by immigration, the Republikaner party scored 10.9 per cent in Baden-Württemberg. It later faded away, amid internal splits, as immigration slowed. The neo-Nazi NPD, the most prominent of far-right groups, scored its best result in regional elections in 2004 in Saxony, with 9.7 per cent.

According to the latest projections, the CDU vote plunged more than 11 per cent to 27 per cent in Baden-Württemberg, though it fell by much less in Rhineland-Palatinate (down about 2.8 per cent to 32 per cent), and in Saxony-Anhalt (down about 3.5 per cent to 30 per cent). The SPD suffered expected losses of about 10 percentage points in Baden-Württemberg and Saxony-Anhalt, falling to just 10 per cent in Saxony-Anhalt, its second-worst regional election result ever.

The fall in the combined vote of CDU and the SPD, the two parties that have long dominated Germany, could signal political splintering, with smaller parties, notably the Greens and the liberal FDP, playing a bigger role in future coalitions.

 

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vememah

U Saksoniji-Anhaltu se zamalo desilo da niko ne može da napravi vladu, pošto je pored ekstremne desnice u pokrajinskoj skupštini jaka i stranka Die Linke (ex DDR komunisti), takođe nezamisliva kao koalicioni partner za Merkelkin CDU, ali su na kraju Zeleni ipak uspeli da prekoče cenzus.

 

iuOgZrB.png

Drugi red je razlika u odnosu na prošle izbore pre 4 godine.

 

uLD5xUC.png

Edited by vememah

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Budja

Iz ovoga u Saksoniji izgleda da se Alijansa za Nemacku vise ovajdila od levice nego od CDUa.

Radnicka klasa koja leluja izmedju ekstremne desnice i levice?

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vememah

Evo rezultata i za preostale dve pokrajine, koje se nalaze u bivšoj Zapadnoj Nemačkoj (nebitno je što je drugi izvor, projekcije odstupaju najviše za 0,1%):

 

DP9Ovq2.png

 

bsdultA.png

Edited by vememah

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Dr Arslanagić

Iz ovoga u Saksoniji izgleda da se Alijansa za Nemacku vise ovajdila od levice nego od CDUa.

Radnicka klasa koja leluja izmedju ekstremne desnice i levice?

 

Radnička klasa koja napušta socijaldemokrate i prilazi ekstremnoj desnici. Već viđeno u UK i Francuskoj.

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ravena

Iz ovoga u Saksoniji izgleda da se Alijansa za Nemacku vise ovajdila od levice nego od CDUa.

Radnicka klasa koja leluja izmedju ekstremne desnice i levice?

 

uvek bilo.

cak ni bivsi emigranti ne gledaju blagonaklono na sadasnje, kamoli radnici kojima se nikako ne dopadaju stvari kao sto su konkurencija i smanjenje cena rada. 

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Anduril

AfD je dobila nekih 40% glasaca iz grupe neglasaca.

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Razzmatazz

Naši ljudi su najbolji primer - juče je došao ovde i odmah je veći Švabo od Bizmarka.

 

Krečman, kandidat Zelenih je radio kampanju tako da je izjavio da podržava Merkelovu i svu njenu politiku (toliko da je Endži morala da kaže "jako ste ljubazni, ali glasači bi onda mogli ipak glasati za CDU" ). Tako da u BW ispada da to nije pad podrške babi, nego samo presipanje na crno-zelenoj liniji. Pravu pušionu su, u stvari, doživeli SPDovci, jer nikad nisu imali ovako slab skor. Sem u Pfalzu, ali tamo su ljudi više glasali za Drajerovu, nego za SPD - fenomen poznat kod nas, kad se glasa za ličnost, a ne za partiju/program.

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aram

Pravu pušionu su, u stvari, doživeli SPDovci

zasluzeno. to je trebalo da ocekuju cim su usli sa cdu u koaliciju.

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Razzmatazz

Bezidejni bezmudići. Najbolji mi je njihov principijelni stav da neće nikad sa Linke da ulaze u koaliciju, iako su oboje šatro levice. Kako je krenulo, možda će da se zamisle nad takvim polisama.

 

Mada, ne znam na osnovu čega je i FDP prešao cenzus.

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ravena

Bezidejni bezmudići. Najbolji mi je njihov principijelni stav da neće nikad sa Linke da ulaze u koaliciju, iako su oboje šatro levice. Kako je krenulo, možda će da se zamisle nad takvim polisama.

 

Mada, ne znam na osnovu čega je i FDP prešao cenzus.

 

zar nisu u jednoj drzavi u koaliciji sa die Linke? 

na nacionalnom planu je malo besmisleno da idu u zeleno - crveno - crvenu koaliciju koja bi imala minijaturnu vecinu i Angelu u opoziciji, a slede teska vremena. 

sad tek nece biti moguca saradnja sa die Linke (inace, partija nastala od PDS, sto je fakticki bila stranka koja se nastavljala na rezim u ist.Nemackoj), jer ce CDU/CSU i AFD svakako imati vecinu u parlamentu. 

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Budja

Naši ljudi su najbolji primer - juče je došao ovde i odmah je veći Švabo od Bizmarka.

 

Krečman, kandidat Zelenih je radio kampanju tako da je izjavio da podržava Merkelovu i svu njenu politiku (toliko da je Endži morala da kaže "jako ste ljubazni, ali glasači bi onda mogli ipak glasati za CDU" ). Tako da u BW ispada da to nije pad podrške babi, nego samo presipanje na crno-zelenoj liniji. Pravu pušionu su, u stvari, doživeli SPDovci, jer nikad nisu imali ovako slab skor. Sem u Pfalzu, ali tamo su ljudi više glasali za Drajerovu, nego za SPD - fenomen poznat kod nas, kad se glasa za ličnost, a ne za partiju/program.

 

I stratesko glasanje u toj pokrajini - pali zeleni, porasli SD.

Zeleni pali za 10 pp, SD porasao za 0.5pp, sto znaci da je i tu sustinski SD prso.

Edited by Budja

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Razzmatazz

@Ravena: ne moraš mi objašnjavati ko su die Linke, pošto ih imam pred nosom svaki dan. Koji režim su nastavili da implementiraju i gde? Ta partija se jedina barem dotiče gorućih tema, koje ostali zaobilaze kao vruć krompir i guraju kako je i do sada bilo, počev od minimalaca do poboljšanja stanja u vrtićima, ravnopravnijim platama za žene itd. I oni su bili jedini koji su letos upozoravali da će izbeglička kriza da eskalira nenormalno, jer ne može da čeka dok poslanici Bundestaga ne stignu nazad s odmora. Ali, oni bi i da više opale bogatije poreski itd, pa je u principu najlakše ih diskvalifikovati ih na plitak način "oni su komunjare, oni potiču iz DDR-a". Koji ste kurac onda asimilovali DDR ako vam ljudi smetaju? To ko Kosovo - bilo bi super da se vrati ta teritorija, samo bez stanovnika. To je ista situacija kao i u Americi - čim imalo miriši na socijalizam, onda je baaad i beže ko đavo od krsta.

 

 

Uglavnom, AfD će ući u pokrajinske parlamente, ući će i u federalni, ali veći procenat od ovog u Sachsen-Anhaltu neće osvojiti, možda eventualno u Saksoniji. Svuda drugde u Zapadnom delu će doći do nekih 15%. Vidim da naše vesti trube o kolosalnom porazu CDU-a i veličanstvenoj pobedi AfD-a, ali nemači pojma jedu govna kao i obično. Navodno, ogroman broj ljudi podržava ekstremniju desnicu, ali izgleda da niko od tih analitičara nije svestan da ceo bivši DDR zajedno nešto malo više stanovnika od jedne Bavarske ili Baden-Württemberga. Ili da CDU ionako ni do sada nije vladao sam, nego u koalicijama.

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