Sirija

[Indy]

Praktično isto piše Al Jazeera.

[Tutankamon]

Turci govore o preko 40.000 prebega iz Sirijske armije (15% ukupnih snaga)...ovde

[Roger Sanchez]

Dupli veto u New Yorku.

[Prospero]

Dupli veto u New Yorku.

Ocekivano. Nakon iskustva sa Libijom nema sanse da ce R & K propustiti bilo sta kroz SB UN bez debelog trejda.

[Zaz_pi]

Asia Times pise:

Exposed: The Arab agenda in SyriaHere's a crash course on the "democratic" machinations of the Arab League - rather the GCC League, as real power in this pan-Arab organization is wielded by two of the six Persian Gulf monarchies composing the Gulf Cooperation Council, also known as Gulf Counter-revolution Club; Qatar and the House of Saud. Essentially, the GCC created an Arab League group to monitor what's going on in Syria. The Syrian National Council - based in North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member countries Turkey and France - enthusiastically supported it. It's telling that Syria's neighbor Lebanon did not. When the over 160 monitors, after one month of enquiries, issued their report ... surprise! The report did not follow the official GCC line - which is that the "evil" Bashar al-Assad government is indiscriminately, and unilaterally, killing its own people, and so regime change is in order. The Arab League's Ministerial Committee had approved the report, with four votes in favor (Algeria, Egypt, Sudan and GCC member Oman) and only one against; guess who, Qatar - which is now presiding the Arab League because the emirate bought their (rotating) turn from the Palestinian Authority. So the report was either ignored (by Western corporate media) or mercilessly destroyed - by Arab media, virtually all of it financed by either the House of Saud or Qatar. It was not even discussed - because it was prevented by the GCC from being translated from Arabic into English and published in the Arab League's website.The report is adamant. There was no organized, lethal repression by the Syrian government against peaceful protesters. Instead, the report points to shady armed gangs as responsible for hundreds of deaths among Syrian civilians, and over one thousand among the Syrian army, using lethal tactics such as bombing of civilian buses, bombing of trains carrying diesel oil, bombing of police buses and bombing of bridges and pipelines.Once again, the official NATOGCC version of Syria is of a popular uprising smashed by bullets and tanks. Instead, BRICS members Russia and China, and large swathes of the developing world see it as the Syrian government fighting heavily armed foreign mercenaries. The report largely confirms these suspicions.The Syrian National Council is essentially a Muslim Brotherhood outfit affiliated with both the House of Saud and Qatar - with an uneasy Israel quietly supporting it in the background. Legitimacy is not exactly its cup of green tea. As for the Free Syrian Army, it does have its defectors, and well-meaning opponents of the Assad regime, but most of all is infested with these foreign mercenaries weaponized by the GCC, especially Salafist gangs.Still NATOGCC, blocked from applying in Syria its one-size-fits-all model of promoting "democracy" by bombing a country and getting rid of the proverbial evil dictator, won't be deterred. GCC leaders House of Saud and Qatar bluntly dismissed their own report and went straight to the meat of the matter; impose a NATOGCC regime change via the UN Security Council.So the current "Arab-led drive to secure a peaceful end to the 10-month crackdown" in Syria at the UN is no less than a crude regime change drive. Usual suspects Washington, London and Paris have been forced to fall over themselves to assure the real international community this is not another mandate for NATO bombing - a la Libya. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton described it as "a path for a political transition that would preserve Syria's unity and institutions".But BRICS members Russia and China see it for what it is. Another BRICS member - India - alongside Pakistan and South Africa, have all raised serious objections to the NATOGCC-peddled draft UN resolution.There won't be another Libya-style no fly zone; after all the Assad regime is not exactly deploying Migs against civilians. A UN regime change resolution will be blocked - again - by Russia and China. Even NATOGCC is in disarray, as each block of players - Washington, Ankara, and the House of Saud-Doha duo - has a different long-term geopolitical agenda. Not to mention crucial Syrian neighbor and trading partner Iraq; Baghdad is on the record against any regime change scheme.So here's a suggestion to the House of Saud and Qatar; since you're so seduced by the prospect of "democracy" in Syria, why don't you use all your American weaponry and invade in the dead of night - like you did to Bahrain - and execute regime change by yourselves?

Ko hoce moze da procita ceo izvestaj Arapske Lige u originalu:League of Arab States Observer Mission to Syria Report of the Head of the League of Arab States Observer Mission to Syria for the period from 24 December 2011 to 18 January 2012Inace, misiju su torpedirali Katar i SA.

[Budja]

Dupli veto u New Yorku.

Hm, sa jedne strane zapad je uspeo da Juzna Afrika i jos par neodlucnih glasaju za.Sa druge strane, Rusija je uspela da Kina stavi veto a ne bude uzdrzana, sto je iznenadjenje.Naravno, jos nije jasno sta se desava u Homsu. Broj zrtava su aktivisti spustili. Koliko je civila poginulo a koliko ustanika, takodje nije jasno.

[Gandalf]

Naravno, jos nije jasno sta se desava u Homsu. Broj zrtava su aktivisti spustili. Koliko je civila poginulo a koliko ustanika, takodje nije jasno.

Nir Rosen: "So media accounts of yesterday's fighting in Homs are not exactly accurate. They make it seem as if this is Hama in 1982 all over again and Homs has fallen. In fact the armed opposition controls more territory in Homs than ever before and yesterday's attack did not result in any loss of territory. Yesterday opposition fighters defeated the regime checkpoint at the Qahira roundabout and they seized a tank or armored personnel carrier. This followed similar successes against the Bab Dreib checkpoint and the Bustan al Diwan checkpoint. In response to this last provocation yesterday the regime started shelling with mortars from the Qalaa on the high ground and the State Security headquarters in Ghota. A couple of stray mortars also fell in the Qusur neighborhood. shelling started at 8:30 PM and lasted until 4 AM. There was no fighting in Homs, just shelling from these safe locations (from the point of view of the regime), suggesting they are unable to actually attack Khaldiyeh with regime fighters. Its an interesting new phase. Also, no opposition fighters were killed in the attack. And up to 130 people in Khaldiyeh were killed and 800 wounded (like i said not fighters). Now thats a lot of people but if you were watching the news yesterday you would think that Homs was destroyed while in fact this attack can also be seen as a sign of the regime's weakness in the city. i have never seen a conflict covered as poorly as this one, with less interest in empirically collected data and more reliance on hysteria and manipulation and rumor."http://angryarab.blogspot.com/2012/02/what-happened-in-homs.html Edited February 5, 2012 by Gandalf

[Gandalf]

Asia Times pise:

Eskobar sere. ne postoji mogucnost za NATO vojnu intervenciju u Siriji, i niko bitan (medju onima koji mogu) na to i ne pomislja. al' cuj mu price, "It's telling that Syria's neighbor Lebanon did not." nema sta, indikativno da libanska vlada bude protiv.

Ocekivano. Nakon iskustva sa Libijom nema sanse da ce R & K propustiti bilo sta kroz SB UN bez debelog trejda.

BS. Rusi i Kinezi su dobro znali sta sledi nakon UNSC odobrenja za upotrebu sile, ali ih je za Gadafija boleo q.Asad je ipak malkice bitniji od rahmetli pukovnika. Edited February 5, 2012 by Gandalf

[Tutankamon]

Naravno, jos nije jasno sta se desava u Homsu. Broj zrtava su aktivisti spustili. Koliko je civila poginulo a koliko ustanika, takodje nije jasno.

Homs

[Bane5]

Asad je nemocan kad je Homs u pitanju (verovatno i jos niz drugih pobunjenih mesta).Cak imam uticak da je vojni angazman Asadu odanih snaga nizeg inteziteta od onog koji su imale Gadafijeve snage u napadu na Misratu ili na Bengazi.Sa druge strane, pobunjene snage nemaju pomoc "saveznika" kakvu su imali libijci.Za sada sve mirise na mrcvarenje bez naznaka kakav ce zavrsetak biti.

[Tutankamon]

Asad ne sme da napadne svom snagom jer se postavlja pitanje lojalnosti njegovih snaga koje sve više i više dezertiraju...ako bi krenuo da ih guši još brutalnije mislim da bi to bila inicijalna kapisla za još daljnja i mnogo ozbiljnija dezertiranja. Sa druge strane FSA je svakim danom sve jača i brojnija. Rekao bih da Asadu vreme neizostavno curi i da je ishod itekako neminovan...

[Bane5]

Moguce da SAF (Syrian Armed Forces) kalkulisu i sa politicke strane, ali je evidentno da Homs uglavnom kontrolise FSA (Free Syrian Army) i da i pored civilnih zrtava ocigledno FSA ima veliku podrsku naroda u pojedinim gradovima koja se placa velikom cenom.Uz to FSA deluje jos uvek samo na tragu onoga su bili neke pobunjenicke jedinice u Libiji.

[Tutankamon]

Od kad je Arapska liga slala posmatrače i definitivno postalo jasno da je ona protiv Asada, nema više velikih pro-Asad mitinga, sve je više prebega iz vojske i što je najvažnije sve su odlučniji i organizovaniji. Mislim i da dosta ljudi tamo ne veruje da je one terorističke akte u Damsku napravila opozicija ili nekakvi misteriozni teroristi. Asadu se topi podrška svakim danom sve više i više...do skora je imao kakvu-takvu (čak šta više i solidnu podršku) ali ona svakim danom sve više slabi. Ja ne vidim kako on ovo može da dobije.

[Tutankamon]

Trojica Misraćana su poginula u Siriji boreći se na strani FSA

[Bane5]

Procena je da je oko 500-ak pripadnika raznih ex-pobunjenickih formacija iz Libije u Siriji ili u kampovima u Turskoj.