USA izbori 2024 - prognoze & play by play

[Roger Sanchez]

Vrlo korisna prognoza Ekonomista 

 

 

[Weenie Pooh]

Kad god čujem da premudro predviđaju 50-50 odds, pomislim "Jebote, da ne pobedi onda Jill Stein nekako?"

[theanswer]

Meni je baš krivo što samo u teoriji može da bude 269:269 da ogoli čitav smisao američke demokratije. A ove godine je bilo najbliže da bude tome, međutim desio se realignment college whites u demokratsku kolonu pa će NE 02 sasvim sigurno otići za Heris. 

[Cash]

11 hours ago, VoodooDerina said:

Ode Tramp na 1.45.

Ovo se već približava izborima 2016. samo u obrnutoj ulozi underdoga, čini mi se da je poslednja kvota na gospođu Klinton bila 1.32.

 

Da li će opet biti velikog iznenađenja...

Klintonova je dan pre izbora imala kvotu 1.15

[theanswer]

6 minutes ago, Cash said:

Klintonova je dan pre izbora imala kvotu 1.15

 

Što takođe ako je istina nije odgovaralo verovatnoći. 538 koji je tada Silver vodio je imao čini mi se nešto ispod 70% šansi za Klintonku. 

 

Slično je i sada ako je kvota na Trampa 1,35. Ne znači da treba da se ide i stavi kuća na Heris na kvotu 3 ili koliko je ali prostom logikom ako su šanse u većini modela 50-50 a kvota na nju je 3.... 

[mandingo]

Kvote u kladionica se pomeraju prema lovi. U ovom slucaju, znaci da je vise love na Trampa. E sad, izbori nisu svakako perfect market, pa verujem da ima limita na ulozen novac.

 

Inace, istina je za Hilari. Mislim da je kvota na bet365 bila 1.12, tako nesto. 

[Tutankamon]

Tramp se iznenadio kad je dobio Hilari...

[theanswer]

2016. exit pollovi koji izlaze oko 5 popodne EST su pokazivali da je Hilari dobila. Jesu jako često nepouzdani ali mislim da su kvote tu otišle do donje granice potpuno. Ista priča i sa Brexitom bila. 

[Roger Sanchez]

ne mogu vjerovati da se ozbiljno diskutira o kladži

[vememah]

Quote

My time as Governor taught me to love policy and ignore politics. I’m proud of the work I did to help clean up our air, create jobs, balance the budget, make the biggest infrastructure investment in state history, and take power from the politicians and give it back to the people when it comes to our redistricting process and our primaries in California.

That’s policy. It requires working with the other side, not insulting them to win your next election, and I know it isn’t sexy to most people, but I love it when I can help make people’s lives better with policies, like I still do through my institute at USC, where we fight for clean air and stripping the power from the politicians who rig the system against the people.

Let me be honest with you: I don’t like either party right now. My Republicans have forgotten the beauty of the free market, driven up deficits, and rejected election results. Democrats aren’t any better at dealing with deficits, and I worry about their local policies hurting our cities with increased crime.

It is probably not a surprise that I hate politics more than ever, which, if you are a normal person who isn’t addicted to this crap, you probably understand.

I want to tune out.

But I can’t. Because rejecting the results of an election is as un-American as it gets. To someone like me who talks to people all over the world and still knows America is the shining city on a hill, calling America is a trash can for the world is so unpatriotic, it makes me furious.

And I will always be an American before I am a Republican.

That’s why, this week, I am voting for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz.

I’m sharing it with all of you because I think there are a lot of you who feel like I do. You don’t recognize our country. And you are right to be furious. For decades, we’ve talked about the national debt.

For decades, we’ve talked about comprehensive immigration reform that secures the border while fixing our broken immigration system. And Washington does nothing.

The problems just keep rolling, and we all keep getting angrier, because the only people that benefit from problems aren’t you, the people. The only people that benefit from this crap are the politicians who prefer having talking points to win elections to the public service that will make Americans’ lives better.

It is a just game to them. But it is life for my fellow Americans. We should be pissed!

But a candidate who won’t respect your vote unless it is for him, a candidate who will send his followers to storm the Capitol while he watches with a Diet Coke, a candidate who has shown no ability to work to pass any policy besides a tax cut that helped his donors and other rich people like me but helped no one else else, a candidate who thinks Americans who disagree with him are the bigger enemies than China, Russia, or North Korea - that won’t solve our problems.

It will just be four more years of bullshit with no results that makes us angrier and angrier, more divided, and more hateful.

We need to close the door on this chapter of American history, and I know that former President Trump won’t do that. He will divide, he will insult, he will find new ways to be more un-American than he already has been, and we, the people, will get nothing but more anger.

That’s enough reason for me to share my vote with all of you. I want to move forward as a country, and even though I have plenty of disagreements with their platform, I think the only way to do that is with Harris and Walz.

Vote this week. Turn the page and put this junk behind us.

And even if you disagree with me, vote, because that’s what we do as Americans. http://vote.org

 

Edited 3 hours ago by vememah

[theanswer]

U ovom momentu većina pollstera radi nešto što se zove herding. Objavljuju rezultate koji su skladu sa prosecima. Tako je dobra opcija da budu precizni a i ako promaše promašili su svi. Čekamo NYT/Siena poslednje pollove i još možda par visoko kvalitetnih.. Ali ako se ovako uđe u izborni dan, ovo će biti najneizvesniji izbori od 2000. Po pollovima naravno. 

[Mel]

Trebalo je Arnolda da stave uz Kamalu po govornicama.

[theanswer]

I evo baš kad sam pričao o herdingu CNN izađe i ima Mičigen +5 i Viskonsin +6 za Heris i nerešeno u PA. 

[mandingo]

10 minutes ago, theanswer said:

I evo baš kad sam pričao o herdingu CNN izađe i ima Mičigen +5 i Viskonsin +6 za Heris i nerešeno u PA. 

Ajversone, koliko ima sanse da su polovi opet (kao 2016) unscientific, zbog broja ljudi koji nece ni polsterima reci da glasaju Hitlera? 

 

Osim toga, ja ne bih otpisivao Kamalu u juznjackim drzavama koji je Biden dobio.... NC i GA, recimo. 

[Weenie Pooh]

Chairman Daou, bivši ride-or-die za HRC, analizira Bernievo poslednje ponižavanje.