USA izbori 2024 - prognoze & play by play

[vememah]

Ima ovde cela hronologija, najavio je da će odgovoriti na još 2 pitanja nakon obe medicinske intervencije i onda nije bilo ništa od toga, štaviše na događaju u lako moguće ključnoj državi za pobedu reklamiranom kao townhall (dakle skup građana sa postavljanjem pitanja nadležnima) rekao je "koga boli kurac za pitanja".

 

 

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Trump sways and bops to music for 39 minutes in bizarre town hall episode
Vice President Kamala Harris has called Trump, 78, unstable and questioned his mental acuity.

OAKS, Pa. — The town hall, moderated by South Dakota Gov. Kristi L. Noem (R), began with questions from preselected attendees for the former president. Donald Trump offered meandering answers on how he would address housing affordability and help small businesses. But it took a sudden turn after two attendees required medical attention.

And so Trump, after jokingly asking the crowd whether “anybody else would like to faint,” took a different approach.

“Let’s not do any more questions. Let’s just listen to music. Let’s make it into a music. Who the hell wants to hear questions, right?” he said.

For 39 minutes, Trump swayed, bopped — sometimes stopping to speak — as he turned the event into almost a living-room listening session of his favorite songs from his self-curated rally playlist.

He played nine tracks. He danced. He shook hands with people onstage. He pointed to the crowd. Noem stood beside him, nodding with her hands clasped. Trump stayed in place onstage, slowly moving back and forth. He was done answering questions for the night.

“Total lovefest at the PA townhall! Everyone was so excited they were fainting so @realDonaldTrump turned to music,” campaign spokesman Steven Cheung wrote on X. “Nobody wanted to leave and wanted to hear more songs from the famous DJT Spotify playlist!”

Trump has long obsessed over his playlist, and aides have often described him privately DJing on his campaign plane or at his Mar-a-Lago Club patio in Florida. He has also angered music artists — such as Celine Dion — who have requested that he stop playing their music at his campaign rallies.

As Trump stood onstage in his oversize suit and bright red tie, swaying back and forth, it was almost as if he were taking a trip back to decades past. Trump’s decision to cut short the question-and-answer portion of the town hall and instead have the crowd stay to listen to his favorite songs was a somewhat bizarre move, given that the election was only 22 days away. Vice President Kamala Harris has called Trump, 78, unstable and questioned his mental acuity.

Some in the crowd began to leave. Some looked around, wondering whether he was done speaking for the night and how much longer the dance — or sway — session would last. Many stayed holding their cameras and watched as Trump took in the music, at times looking over at a screen beside him that showed videos of James Brown singing “It’s a Man’s Man’s Man’s World” and Sinéad O’Connor performing “Nothing Compares 2 U.”

The evening began to take a different trajectory when a man appeared to faint in the crowd. Trump paused his remarks. Attendees fanned the man and began to sing “God Bless America.” As the man waited for medical help, Trump mused: “While we’re waiting. So we had a beautiful evening. And I don’t know if they could get this song up quickly, but if they could work really quickly backstage while we’re waiting. ‘Ave Maria.’” The song began to play.

Trump then resumed. Minutes later, another attendee needed medical attention. Trump stopped again. “Take your time, doctor,” he said, and “Ave Maria” began to play again. Trump then quipped to the crowd: “Would anybody else like to faint? Please raise your hand. Let’s do it now.”

Trump then referred to a chart with immigration statistics that he credits with saving his life: “My all-time favorite chart. And let’s listen to Pavarotti sing ‘Ave Maria.’ They gave me the ‘Ave Maria’ with no voice.” He then pointed to a Gold Star couple whose son was lost in battle, saying: “That’s for your boy, stand up.”

He briefly returned to talking about the election and the importance of winning Pennsylvania. After Noem gave Trump the option of closing “with a specific song” or taking “two more fast questions,” he addressed one of his aides: “So Justin, how about a couple really beauties and we’ll sit down and relax.”

It was time to listen to Andrea Bocelli’s “Time to Say Goodbye.” After listening to James Brown, Trump began to speak again, as if remembering that he was still at an event that was billed as a town hall.

“This is the most important election in the history of our country,” Trump said, once again accusing Democrats of weaponizing elections. But then he went back to his music.

“Those two people that went down are patriots, and we love them, and because of them we ended up with some good music, right?” he asked. “So play ‘YMCA!’ Go ahead. Let’s go nice and loud!”

“Here we go, everybody,” Noem interjected.

The crowd cheered and danced to the Village People song from the 1970s, which celebrates gay cruising culture. Noem put her hands up in the shape of a “Y.” As the song was ending, Trump mouthed the words, “Nobody’s leaving.”

“Nobody’s leaving. What’s going on? There’s nobody leaving. Keep going,” he said, as Rufus Wainwright’s version of “Hallelujah” played next. “All right, turn that music up! Turn that up. Great song!”

Then it was “Nothing Compares 2 U” by Sinéad O’Connor. “An American Trilogy” by Elvis Presley. “Rich Men North of Richmond” by Oliver Anthony. Trump stood and swayed.

As “November Rain” by Guns N’ Roses played, he walked off the stage. He spoke to attendees on his way out, as “Memory” from the musical “Cats” played in the background.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/14/trump-music-sways-town-hall/?utm_campaign=wp_politics&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

 

22.9.2024.

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Trump held 72 rallies between June and September of 2016. He's held 24 in that period this year, with another on the calendar for Monday.

https://www.axios.com/2024/09/22/trump-2024-rallies-schedule

Edited October 16 by vememah

[vememah]

 

Snimak celog mitinga:

 

Edited October 16 by vememah

[vememah]

 

[Weenie Pooh]

9 hours ago, Čutura said:

vic, sala, posalica?

 

Nije za ovu temu ali da, Baerbock objašnjava kako civilne lokacije gube svoj zaštićen status kad ih koriste teroristi. Izraelska "human shields" retorika jedan kroz jedan.

 

Mene ipak više zanima da čujem neki argument u korist Kamaline platforme za crnce, ono kao, invest in crypto, smoke some weed, and STFU.

 

Edited October 16 by Weenie Pooh

[giuseppe]

Jab glaso!

 

 

Spoiler

Ali kaže da je za Bernija 🥰 pa se ne bi ni kandidovao kao demokrata, nego kao socdem (štagod to bilo). Svejedno, lep poster

 

[theanswer]

Pogledah Kamalin intervju za FOX NEWS. Svaki odgovor joj je "Tramp". Bukvalno svaki. Mislim da nikad nisam pogledao ništa slično. 

Edited October 16 by theanswer

[VoodooDerina]

 

Ma ovo sad već ide u landslide...

 

O jbt, koliki debil treba da budeš da uspeš da izgubiš od jebenog Trampa

[theanswer]

Ne postoji nijedan data point koji bi ukazivao da je Tramp trenutno favorit. To na šta se ljudi klade i koliko imaju uspeha je totalno druga stvar. 

Edited October 17 by theanswer

[VoodooDerina]

38 minutes ago, theanswer said:

Ne postoji nijedan data point koji bi ukazivao da je Tramp trenutno favorit. To na šta se ljudi klade i koliko imaju uspeha je totalno druga stvar. 

 

Naravno da postoji, u istraživanjima mnogo bolje stoji nego 2016. i 2020. (u državama gde je te godine jako tesno izgubio), plus rezultati early voting-a koji su opet dosta bolji po njega nego pre.

Plus istraživanja po kategorijama koja su opet bolja po njega nego u prethodnim ciklusima.

Trka je bila coin-toss dok Mičigen i Viskonsin nisu ulazili u jednačinu, kada su i te države ponovo postale ozbiljna klackalica, sada je on solidan favorit.

Edited October 17 by VoodooDerina

[theanswer]

1 minute ago, VoodooDerina said:

 

Naravno da postoji, u istraživanjima mnogo bolje stoji nego 2016. i 2020. (u državama gde je te godine jako tesno izgubio), plus rezultati early voting-a koji su opet dosta bolji po njega nego pre.

Plus istraživanja po kategorijama koja su opet bolja po njega nego u prethodnim ciklusima.

Trka je bila coin-toss dok Mičigen i Viskonsin nisu ulazili u jednačinu, kada su i te države ponovo postale ozbiljna klackalica, sada je on solidan favorit.

 

Netačno. Kada nešto tvrdiš sa ubeđenjem kojim tvrdiš bilo bi dobro da možeš da potkrepiš činjenicama. 

 

Da, u istraživanjima bolje stoji nego 2016. i 2020. u ovo vreme ali to ne znači ništa. To pretpostavlja istu grešku kao 2016. i 2020. o čemu može samo u ovom momentu da se nagađa. 

 

Koji early vote podaci su tako dobri za Trampa? Early vote nije dobar pokazatelj, 2020. godina nije dobra za upoređivanje itd. 

 

Kao što rekoh ne postoje podaci koji trenutno postoje koji pokazuju da je bilo ko solidan favorit. 

[VoodooDerina]

5 minutes ago, theanswer said:

 

Netačno. Kada nešto tvrdiš sa ubeđenjem kojim tvrdiš bilo bi dobro da možeš da potkrepiš činjenicama. 

 

Da, u istraživanjima bolje stoji nego 2016. i 2020. u ovo vreme ali to ne znači ništa. To pretpostavlja istu grešku kao 2016. i 2020. o čemu može samo u ovom momentu da se nagađa. 

 

Koji early vote podaci su tako dobri za Trampa? Early vote nije dobar pokazatelj, 2020. godina nije dobra za upoređivanje itd. 

 

Kao što rekoh ne postoje podaci koji trenutno postoje koji pokazuju da je bilo ko solidan favorit. 

 

Kažeš da potkrepim činjenicama i onda za sve navedene činjenice kažeš da su nebitne jer eto nisu 100% pouzdane. Tako je bespredmetno diskutovati.

Zato se i zovu predviđanja i zato kvota na Trampa nije 1.01, ali su jasan pokazatelj šta se može očekivati, a šta bi bilo iznenađenje.

 

Edited October 17 by VoodooDerina

[theanswer]

3 minutes ago, VoodooDerina said:

 

Kažeš da potkrepim činjenicama i onda za sve navedene činjenice kažeš da su nebitne jer eto nisu 100% pouzdane. Tako je bespredmetno diskutovati.

Zato se i zovu predviđanja i zato kvota na Trampa nije 1.01, ali su jasan pokazatelj šta se može očekivati, a šta bi bilo iznenađenje.

 

 

Pa to što ti misliš da su pollovi ponovo pogrešni i da potcenjuju Trampa, to prijatelju nije činjenica nego pretpostavka. Pretpostavka da ništa nisu naučili iz prethodna 2 ciklusa. Legitimna pretpostavka o kojoj sam i pisao dosta puta ali opet nije činjenica. 

 

Rezultati early votinga NE POSTOJE. Postoje podaci o tome koliko ljudi je glasalo u nekim državama i u državama gde to postoji podaci o party ID-u onih koji su glasali. Mada ne postoje u svim državama, u drugim državama recimo postoje samo demografski podaci koji se objavljuju. Ja mogu da pretpostavim o kojim podacima pričam jer sam viđao svašta po tviteru da se mota, ali što se zvaničnih podataka tiče, ne znam o čemu pričaš? Voleo bih da mi kažeš konkretno, ta i ta država i ti i ti podaci iz early votinga pokazuju da je Tramp solidan favorit. 

 

 

[VoodooDerina]

10 minutes ago, theanswer said:

 

Pa to što ti misliš da su pollovi ponovo pogrešni i da potcenjuju Trampa, to prijatelju nije činjenica nego pretpostavka. Pretpostavka da ništa nisu naučili iz prethodna 2 ciklusa. Legitimna pretpostavka o kojoj sam i pisao dosta puta ali opet nije činjenica. 

 

Rezultati early votinga NE POSTOJE. Postoje podaci o tome koliko ljudi je glasalo u nekim državama i u državama gde to postoji podaci o party ID-u onih koji su glasali. Mada ne postoje u svim državama, u drugim državama recimo postoje samo demografski podaci koji se objavljuju. Ja mogu da pretpostavim o kojim podacima pričam jer sam viđao svašta po tviteru da se mota, ali što se zvaničnih podataka tiče, ne znam o čemu pričaš? Voleo bih da mi kažeš konkretno, ta i ta država i ti i ti podaci iz early votinga pokazuju da je Tramp solidan favorit. 

 

 

 

Pokazuju broj registrovanih glasača R i D koji su glasali. OK, možemo da pretpostavimo da su R masovno sada glasali za Haris, ali mislim da je logičnije da su i jedni i drugi ogromnom većinom glasali za one za koje su registrovani. Tako se i dolazi do tih podataka.

Takođe popular vote istraživanja pokazuju da je prednost Haris tu mnogo manja (svega par poena) nego što bi trebalo da bude potrebno za pobedu.

 

Što se tiče istraživanja više i ne mora da se uzima taj bias kontra Trampa u obzir, evo je najsvežija mapa na osnovu poslednjih istraživanja, bez ikakvog tilta, ovo apsolutno nismo imali ni u jednom trenutku pred 2016. ili 2020, pogotovo ne manje od 20 dana pred izbore.

 

https://www.270towin.com/maps/harris-trump-polling-no-tossups

 

Edited October 17 by VoodooDerina

[dragance]

Kada ji svi registrovani za D ili R glasali za “svoje” onda ne ni nilo potrebno ikada išta prebrojavati i sve bi se uvek znalo unapred. Zar ne?

[VoodooDerina]

16 minutes ago, dragance said:

Kada ji svi registrovani za D ili R glasali za “svoje” onda ne ni nilo potrebno ikada išta prebrojavati i sve bi se uvek znalo unapred. Zar ne?

 

Niko i ne kaže da glasaju 1-1, ali ne glasaju ni 50-50%, prosto se na osnovu broja registrovanih jendih i drugih koji su izašli može naslutiti trend i u kombinaciji sa svim ovim istraživanjima steći slika i očekivanje ko je bliži pobedi, a ne ko će sigurno pobediti. Kada bismo to znali sa apsolutnom sigurnošću, za mesec dana bismo bili milioneri.

Edited October 17 by VoodooDerina