USA izbori 2024 - prognoze & play by play

[Moonwalker]

Ljubi ga majka! Ne moze vrana goluba da izleze.

 

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/elon-musk-mom-maye-musk-voter-fraud_n_67039d42e4b006bba4144afa
 

 

Quote

“The Democrats have given us another option. You don’t have to register to vote. On Election Day, have 10 fake names, go to 10 polling booths and vote 10 times. That’s 100 votes, and it’s not illegal. Maybe we should work the system too,” she wrote Saturday on X, the site formerly known as Twitter.

 

Edited October 9 by Moonwalker

[VoodooDerina]

Od juče je Tramp postao ponovo favorit po kladionicama, najviše zato što su se u Pensilvaniji kvote izjednačile.

Ovaj najskoriji trend je počeo otprilike od potpredsedničke debate (prilično neočekivano), kao što je prethodno Haris imala značajan skok nakon predsedničke.

 

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/graphics/2024/10/08/presidential-election-odds-2024-betting-polls/75559980007/

 

Spoiler

What are Trump's odds of winning the election? Here's why they just got better

---

Jim Sergent   USA TODAY

Recent polling in Pennsylvania suggests voters are narrowly divided in choosing Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump. Betting markets disagree. If they're right, Pennsylvania and the presidential election might go Trump's way.

Since the vice presidential debate between JD Vance and Tim Walz, offshore betting markets have trended toward Trump, according to Polymarket, a crypto trading platform. The primary driver: an influx of bets that raised the probability of Trump winning Pennsylvania.

The Trump campaign appeared to get an additional boost during the weekend after Trump returned to Butler, Pennsylvania, where a gunman tried to assassinate him in July. As of Tuesday at 12 p.m. ET, bettors on Polymarket gave Trump a 52.6% chance of winning the election, his best odds since early August. Presidential election betting can't be done legally in the U.S.

 

How Trump's odds of winning have changed in the past two weeks

 

Trump's odds of winning the presidency have risen with his odds of winning in Pennsylvania. In recent weeks, bettors on Polymarket gave Harris a narrow lead in Pennsylvania, a state with 19 electoral votes. Assuming she were to win all the other states where she's favored, Harris would surpass the 270 electoral votes with Pennsylvania.

Harris' and Trump's odds of winning each state

With four weeks remaining before Nov. 5, Trump's odds of winning the 2024 race are also much better than his two other runs in 2016 and 2020. He had just a 17% probability of defeating Hillary Clinton as voters went to the polls in 2016, according to Betfair Exchange, the biggest U.K. peer-to-peer betting platform.

How well do potential voters know Harris?

Potential voters and betting markets knew much less about Trump than they did about Clinton in 2016. The shoe might be on the other foot this time around, according to Harry Crane, a Rutgers University statistics professor, who studies election outcomes on the predictions of betting markets.

Harris "is a relatively unknown candidate," Crane said in a phone interview Thursday. "She's been the vice president, but she's not doing any media interviews. She's not exposed." A "60 Minutes" interview with Harris that aired Monday night was the first in a series the campaign has since announced.

"She's kind of the polar opposite of Trump," Crane said, "where Trump is 100% exposed. It's almost unthinkable to think something could come out that would surprise anybody about Trump. Does this help Harris, or does this hurt Harris?"

Which states polling says are still toss-ups

Real Clear Politics daily tracks and aggregates polling throughout the country. Its analysis suggests more than 100 electoral votes in nine states remain toss-ups.

Bettors push Trump's probability of winning higher than in previous two elections

Though betting on Trump and Harris has diverged significantly in recent days, it is far from where Trump stood on the opening day of the Republican National Convention. On July 16, his odds of winning were more the 70% on Polymarket and Betfair Exchange.

Betting odds didn't predict Trump's 2016 victory

Though the betting odds have turned in Trump's favor, the 6 percentage point gap Tuesday at 12 p.m. ET between Harris and Trump remains the narrowest among the previous three, according to Betfair Exchange. On Oct. 8, 2020, bettors gave Biden a 66% chance of winning.

Betfair odds had Hillary Clinton with an 81% likelihood of winning on Election Day in 2016. The betting favorite has lost only twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization. The only other time bettors failed to predict the winner: 1948, when Democrat Harry Truman beat 8-to-1 odds to defeat Republican Thomas Dewey.

 

Contributing: James Powel

© Copyright Gannett 2024

 

 

Edited October 9 by VoodooDerina

[Weenie Pooh]

1 hour ago, Mel said:

Tramp govori svojoj publici kojoj je taj nastup prijemchiv.

 

Upravo, zato je i upitna ta strategija ukazivanja na Trampovo lupetanje. To ubeđuje samo tvoje već ubeđene glasače, a onda povrh toga moraš da se potrudiš da sakriješ Kamalino lupetanje jer si publiku prajmovao da na to loše reaguje. 

 

Sve bi to mnogo lakše išlo da si jednostavno ponudio kandidata sposobnog da smisleno odgovori na slam dunk pitanja bez da zvuči kao sock puppet. 

 

[Hele]

15 minutes ago, VoodooDerina said:

Od juče je Tramp postao ponovo favorit po kladionicama, najviše zato što su se u Pensilvaniji kvote izjednačile.

Ovaj najskoriji trend je počeo otprilike od potpredsedničke debate (prilično neočekivano), kao što je prethodno Haris imala značajan skok nakon predsedničke.

 

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/graphics/2024/10/08/presidential-election-odds-2024-betting-polls/75559980007/

 

  Hide contents

What are Trump's odds of winning the election? Here's why they just got better

---

Jim Sergent   USA TODAY

 

Recent polling in Pennsylvania suggests voters are narrowly divided in choosing Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump. Betting markets disagree. If they're right, Pennsylvania and the presidential election might go Trump's way.

Since the vice presidential debate between JD Vance and Tim Walz, offshore betting markets have trended toward Trump, according to Polymarket, a crypto trading platform. The primary driver: an influx of bets that raised the probability of Trump winning Pennsylvania.

The Trump campaign appeared to get an additional boost during the weekend after Trump returned to Butler, Pennsylvania, where a gunman tried to assassinate him in July. As of Tuesday at 12 p.m. ET, bettors on Polymarket gave Trump a 52.6% chance of winning the election, his best odds since early August. Presidential election betting can't be done legally in the U.S.

 

How Trump's odds of winning have changed in the past two weeks

 

Trump's odds of winning the presidency have risen with his odds of winning in Pennsylvania. In recent weeks, bettors on Polymarket gave Harris a narrow lead in Pennsylvania, a state with 19 electoral votes. Assuming she were to win all the other states where she's favored, Harris would surpass the 270 electoral votes with Pennsylvania.

Harris' and Trump's odds of winning each state

With four weeks remaining before Nov. 5, Trump's odds of winning the 2024 race are also much better than his two other runs in 2016 and 2020. He had just a 17% probability of defeating Hillary Clinton as voters went to the polls in 2016, according to Betfair Exchange, the biggest U.K. peer-to-peer betting platform.

How well do potential voters know Harris?

Potential voters and betting markets knew much less about Trump than they did about Clinton in 2016. The shoe might be on the other foot this time around, according to Harry Crane, a Rutgers University statistics professor, who studies election outcomes on the predictions of betting markets.

Harris "is a relatively unknown candidate," Crane said in a phone interview Thursday. "She's been the vice president, but she's not doing any media interviews. She's not exposed." A "60 Minutes" interview with Harris that aired Monday night was the first in a series the campaign has since announced.

"She's kind of the polar opposite of Trump," Crane said, "where Trump is 100% exposed. It's almost unthinkable to think something could come out that would surprise anybody about Trump. Does this help Harris, or does this hurt Harris?"

Which states polling says are still toss-ups

Real Clear Politics daily tracks and aggregates polling throughout the country. Its analysis suggests more than 100 electoral votes in nine states remain toss-ups.

Bettors push Trump's probability of winning higher than in previous two elections

Though betting on Trump and Harris has diverged significantly in recent days, it is far from where Trump stood on the opening day of the Republican National Convention. On July 16, his odds of winning were more the 70% on Polymarket and Betfair Exchange.

Betting odds didn't predict Trump's 2016 victory

Though the betting odds have turned in Trump's favor, the 6 percentage point gap Tuesday at 12 p.m. ET between Harris and Trump remains the narrowest among the previous three, according to Betfair Exchange. On Oct. 8, 2020, bettors gave Biden a 66% chance of winning.

Betfair odds had Hillary Clinton with an 81% likelihood of winning on Election Day in 2016. The betting favorite has lost only twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization. The only other time bettors failed to predict the winner: 1948, when Democrat Harry Truman beat 8-to-1 odds to defeat Republican Thomas Dewey.

 

Contributing: James Powel

© Copyright Gannett 2024

 

 

 

Samo citam par stranica pre cudjenje nekim Trampovim potezima, time sto je doveo Maska, pitaju se ljudi ima li on savetnike...

 

Tako je i kod nas, veliki vodja uradi neki potez gde ljudi misle da je sad zbog toga najebao i da se zeznuo, kad ono medjutim, sve suprotno.

[Weenie Pooh]

13 minutes ago, VoodooDerina said:

Od juče je Tramp postao ponovo favorit po kladionicama, najviše zato što su se u Pensilvaniji kvote izjednačile.

Ovaj najskoriji trend je počeo otprilike od potpredsedničke debate (prilično neočekivano), kao što je prethodno Haris imala značajan skok nakon predsedničke.

 

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/graphics/2024/10/08/presidential-election-odds-2024-betting-polls/75559980007/

 

I dobro, hoćeš li nam na kraju odati koliko si para uložio?  

 

Sve te procene tipa "52.6% verovatnoće da Trampara dobija, a ranije je dobio sa 17%" služe samo tome da se vama hazarderima izbije para iz džepa na suštinski coin toss.

 

[VoodooDerina]

35 minutes ago, Weenie Pooh said:

 

I dobro, hoćeš li nam na kraju odati koliko si para uložio?  

 

Sve te procene tipa "52.6% verovatnoće da Trampara dobija, a ranije je dobio sa 17%" služe samo tome da se vama hazarderima izbije para iz džepa na suštinski coin toss.

 

 

~1k i vrv se zajebao

 

U tim "50-50" slučajevima je trend najbitniji i treba ga prepoznati pred sam događaj.

Onaj ko poslednji bude imao rising edge će najverovatnije i dobiti, e sad to "samo" treba i uhvatiti.

 

[Mel]

59 minutes ago, Weenie Pooh said:

 

Upravo, zato je i upitna ta strategija ukazivanja na Trampovo lupetanje. To ubeđuje samo tvoje već ubeđene glasače, a onda povrh toga moraš da se potrudiš da sakriješ Kamalino lupetanje jer si publiku prajmovao da na to loše reaguje. 

 

Sve bi to mnogo lakše išlo da si jednostavno ponudio kandidata sposobnog da smisleno odgovori na slam dunk pitanja bez da zvuči kao sock puppet. 

 

 

Ne znam koliko je tu bilo prostora, vajda je bilo logicno da bude Kamala jer je vec bila potpredsenik? Jer inace saljes poruku da sta - dobra je za potrpedsenika Amerike, ali nije za predsednickog kandidata? Meni bi to bilo nerezonski.

Tramp je jos mesec dana pre svega rekao da ce biti Kamala na onom golf videu...

Valjda je to bilo jasno da mora ona.

Meni nije jasno nesto drugo - vecina ovih pitanja koja ja makar vidim se vrte oko istoga - zar to ne moze neko da je dobro izbrifinguje kako da odgovara?

 

Sta znam, pre mesec dva dana bih se opusteno ali opusteno kladila na Kamalu, Tramp se bio skroz izduvao nekako. Sad ona deluje umorno i i potroseno a on kao da se kovarnuo, mislim na neku energiju koju dobijam kad ih gledam u ovim klipovima, content na stranu.

[April]

46 minutes ago, VoodooDerina said:

Od juče je Tramp postao ponovo favorit po kladionicama, najviše zato što su se u Pensilvaniji kvote izjednačile.

Ovaj najskoriji trend je počeo otprilike od potpredsedničke debate (prilično neočekivano), kao što je prethodno Haris imala značajan skok nakon predsedničke.

 

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/graphics/2024/10/08/presidential-election-odds-2024-betting-polls/75559980007/

 

 

Izgleda da je Shapiro ipak bio sigurnija karta. Sve se lomi u Pensilvaniji, a stvari su se po Trampa popravile od njegovog mitinga u Batleru. U Karolini i Arizoni je odmakao, a Kamala u Mičigenu. U Pensilvaniji se toliko zagovnalo da je Obama preuzeo kampanju da proba da odbrani tih preostalih pola poena u koje ja lično ne verujem mnogo jer republikanci uvek iznenade na dan glasanja. Demsima ostaje da veruju u tradiciju da Mičigen i Pensilvanija uvek idu zajedno, mada je i Hilari verovala, pa jbg.

 

Podrška Obame treba da znači da Demsi napadaju Džordžiju i Severnu Karolinu, a da se u Mičigenu osećaju dovoljno sigurno da mogu da okrenu fokus ka državama u kojima bi povećana izlaznost crnog korpusa mogla da pokrene stvari.

[Jimmy Kowalski]

Izborni stab Kamale pravi istu gresku kao i stab Hillary. Ne rade ni blizu dovoljno da animiraju i privuku neopredeljene birace, ocekujuci valjda da je dovoljno ponavljati da je protivnik katastrofa. Hillary ni dan danas nije spremna da prizna da je odradila jako losu terensku kampanju u tzv. great lakes states, vec ce sve svaliti na to sto je FBI pokrenuo istragu protiv nje tik pre izbore.

Edited October 9 by Jimmy Kowalski

[Mel]

1 hour ago, Jimmy Kowalski said:

Izborni stab Kamale pravi istu gresku kao i stab Hillary. Ne rade ni blizu dovoljno da animiraju i privuku neopredeljene birace, ocekujuci valjda da je dovoljno ponavljati da je protivnik katastrofa. Hillary ni dan danas nije spremna da prizna da je odradila jako losu terensku kampanju u tzv. great lakes states, vec ce sve svaliti na to sto je FBI pokrenuo istragu protiv nje tik pre izbore.

 

Mimo toga da je nejasno sta rade ti advertajzeri stabovi demokrata itd, jer Kamala pocinje da deluje malo pogubljeno, situacija jako lici na 2012te izbore u Srbiji, ono manje zlo, vece zlo, los rade prethodne vlade i nova koja na to nadgradi 50x plus voli da prosto pokrade izbore i tako... Cekic ekser znam, ali fakat ima dodirnih tacaka.

[Budja]

17 hours ago, Ivo Petović said:

Pa da, banovao ga tek tako, 6. januar no big deal...poziv na prekrajanje izbora, ubistvo potpredsednika...svejetoisto. Neverojebenovatno.

 

A drugi par cipela činjenica da literalni nacisti ordiniraju u svakom jebenom postu. Opet no big deal...ipak nisu liberalne elite.

 

Whatever...deo mene bi voleo da dodje Tramp i instalira 12 Pinočea po Južnim Amerikama da jure ljude po kućama....verovatno bi dotični dok beže kroz prašumu ili skaču u okean pomislili, jebene liberalne elite, gde su Francuzi licemeri da me zaštite.

 

Tramp nije pozivao na ubistvo Pensa. Dorsey nije clan Vrhovnog Suda niti Vrhovni Sud. Suspenzija je bio deo pritiska javnosti a ne deo protokola Tvitera.

Kovanica "misinformation" jeste slippery slope.

, Arevalom

Sasvim sam spokojan oko Trampa i Juzne Amerika. Zaboravljas da je Tramp sasvim lepo, cak i bolje, saradjivao sa AMLOom nego Bajdenara, a AMLO svakako nije Pinoce. Bio je tu cetiri godine i Boslonarova pobeda i puc u Boliviji slabo imaju veze sa Trampom.

 

Fino ce Trampara saradjivati i sa Petrom i sa Mileiem, njegove preferencije nisu ideoloske vec macho. Stoga ce se muciti sa Claudiom, Bernardo Arevalom, Lulom...

 

[Budja]

5 hours ago, Jimmy Kowalski said:

Izborni stab Kamale pravi istu gresku kao i stab Hillary. Ne rade ni blizu dovoljno da animiraju i privuku neopredeljene birace, ocekujuci valjda da je dovoljno ponavljati da je protivnik katastrofa. Hillary ni dan danas nije spremna da prizna da je odradila jako losu terensku kampanju u tzv. great lakes states, vec ce sve svaliti na to sto je FBI pokrenuo istragu protiv nje tik pre izbore.

 

Naprotiv, ne rade dovoljno da stimulisu bazu, tj. get out the vote. Stoga, trenutno. gube Dzordziju a tamo demokrate gube ako ne izadje dovoljno crnog stanovnistva.

 

Kamaline izjave upravo ima za cilj da se pomeri ka centru.

Edited October 9 by Budja

[vememah]

 

[theanswer]

25 dana do izbora. 

 

Ako se veruje pollovima, radije bih bio Heris nego Tramp, ali je to tossup trka trenutno svakako. Silver ima Heris na 55% šansi, što je coin flip. Ako pollovi po treći put potcenjuju Trampa onda Tramp dobija, nema sumnje jer čak i mala sistemska greška u pollovima koja ga potcenjuje je dovoljno da dođe do dobitne kombinacije: Georgia + North Carolina + PA je najlakši put za Trampa do pobede. Najlakši put za Heris je MI+WI+PA+NE02. NE02 je sigurica. 

 

Skoro 4 miliona ljudi je već glasalo, od toga 344k u Pensilvaniji već (69% D - 22% R). Early voting sem Nevade i donekle Floride je loš za predikcije, ali sada će biti još teže jer je 2020 bila covid godina kada je mail in glasanje eksplodiralo. 2022. nije dobra godina jer se nikad ne porede predsednički i midterms izbori. Tako da će broj i veličina i odnos D vs R verovatno biti između ove dve bazne godine. 

 

Republikanci će uzeti Senat. WV je odavno sigurna, sada i Montana, NYT jutros pokazuje +8 za Šihija vs Testera. Ne treba im nijedna swing država više. A demokrate nemaju gde da uzmu nešto. Kruz je na +4 protiv Alreda u Teksasu i to je najtesnije ali neće Teksas u predsedničkoj godini pogotovo da flipuje za D. Tramp polluje bukvalno ispred svakog republikanca na ticketu i to za bar 3,4% a uglavnom high single digits. 

[cedo]

ne znam kakav  je wsj poll, ali na ovo sam naleteo