VoodooDerina Posted August 25 Share Posted August 25 29 minutes ago, braca said: Nije to baš tako sigurno. Recimo Texas je oduvek republikanski, ali poslednjih godina se dosta ljudi doselilo tamo, a i populacija se podmlađuje (mladi više glasaju za demokrate), tako da postoji teoretska mogućnost da ga “flipnu”, a Texas nosi 40 elektora… Već sam govorio o tome, u slobodnim izborima malo šta je sigurno. To oduvek je od Kartera, što je bilo za naših života. Trend jeste da Teksas postaje sve "plavlji", ali po svim dostupnim istraživanjima još uvek nije ni blizu da flipuje. Kada se to desi, moraće da dođe i do novog velikog "preslaganja" koje smo videli poslednji put 60ih, inače neće ni morati da organizuju izbore jedno duže vreme jer će se pobednik znati unapred. Ipak su Ameri majstori u održavanju balansa već više od 200 godina, još od Misuri kompromisa. Jednom kada su ga izgubili opekli su se najžešće u svojoj istoriji i jedva sačuvali državu, a oni ipak uče na svojim greškama. Link to comment
Patty Lee Posted August 25 Share Posted August 25 Je l postoje negde da se vide istraživanja kako izgleda elektorat trenutno, kako ko stoji ali razbijeno po polu, prihodima, godinama, religiji glasača... ili je još rano za to? Konkretno me zanimaju ovi Latino porekla. Sećam se da je za prošle izbore moglo da se vidi čak i po obrazovanju (tipa visoko obrazovani Latino glasači su bili za Sleepy Joa, nisko obrazovani za Trampa). Link to comment
braca Posted August 25 Author Share Posted August 25 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/ Pa klikneš na poll (na primer ovaj prvi (https://www.activote.net/harris-has-steady-lead/) i tu imaš raščlanjeno sve, u stvari zavisi posle od jednog do drugog, ali uglavnom imaju : 3 Link to comment
borris_ Posted August 25 Share Posted August 25 A imaju li projekcije po ovim swing drzavama? Link to comment
braca Posted August 25 Author Share Posted August 25 13 minutes ago, borris_ said: A imaju li projekcije po ovim swing drzavama? https://map.jacksonjude.com/ Klikneš na državu 1 Link to comment
April Posted August 25 Share Posted August 25 4 hours ago, braca said: Nije to baš tako sigurno. Recimo Texas je oduvek republikanski, ali poslednjih godina se dosta ljudi doselilo tamo, a i populacija se podmlađuje (mladi više glasaju za demokrate), tako da postoji teoretska mogućnost da ga “flipnu”, a Texas nosi 40 elektora… Već sam govorio o tome, u slobodnim izborima malo šta je sigurno. https://www.texastribune.org/2024/08/22/trump-harris-cruz-allred-texas-poll/ Obratiti pažnju, direktorka Kamaline kampanje kaže da neće ulagati više sredstava u kampanju nego do sad jer je tamošnje oglašavanje i za njih preskupo. Međutim, i pored toga je Kamala prepolovila Trampovu prednost od jula, tako da tvoja procena može do kraja čak biti blizu. 2 Link to comment
vememah Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Quote In his affidavit, Mary was portrayed as an alcoholic who abused her husband and was a danger to the kids. The document was supposed to be sealed, but it somehow made it to the press. According to Mary's attorney, Kennedy took custody of the kids as a way to force her to agree to a divorce. Unable to take any more pain or humiliation, on May 16, 2012, Mary Richardson Kennedy hanged herself. A friend commented “Depression and drinking didn’t kill Mary. It was having her kids taken away.” Robert Kennedy gave a eulogy at her funeral where he claimed that in their last telephone conversation the day before she died, Mary told him “everything was her fault." Great guy. 2 1 Link to comment
Filozof manijak Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Zanimljiv tajming za curenje ovog dokumenta 2 Link to comment
Quince Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Apropo para u kampanju, pročitah u Njujorkeru tekst sa par zanimljivih informacija o kampanji Harris-Walz na internetu, How the Harris Campaign Beat Trump at Being Online Pa kaže: The Harris-Walz campaign recently announced a budget of two hundred million dollars for digital advertising through November, a figure it claims will constitute the largest digital ad campaign in U.S. political history Dalje, According to the Harris-Walz campaign, its TikTok team is made up of five staffers all under the age of twenty-five; the same team had been working for Joe Biden’s reëlection, but the tone since the transition has become strikingly loose. The campaign has been responsive to what is trending day to day on the platform, creating a kind of call-and-response between itself and Harris fans. Ne znam da li treba da budem šokirana ovom demografijom, ali ovo svakako donekle objašnjava zašto kampanja na društvenim mrežama izgleda kako izgleda. Ima i o "weird" (spec za Weenija): Laura Olin (vodila social media kampanju za Obamu 2012) kaže: “Campaigns can’t get away with being boring anymore.” Humor is the currency of the Internet, as is the ability to signal that you’re in on the joke. Dry policy messaging or warnings about threats to democracy are less likely to be widely shared than a good roast, as Walz discovered a month ago when he changed Democrats’ political strategy wholesale by labelling Trump and Vance “weird.” Na tragu toga, David Hogg, "the Gen Z political activist" (šta god to bilo), kaže: “They will tell you if you’re being weird. If something’s off, they will make fun of you in a way that hurts,” Hogg said, of teens. For better or worse, when trying to appeal to an audience that has just recently come of voting age, a familiarity with digital spaces might be worth more than policy messaging. Hogg told me, “Young people, especially, vote off of vibes.” Young. People. Vote. Off. Of. Vibes. let that sink in. Plus, možda meni nešto promiče, ali da li oni to zamišljaju da na internetu nema nikog osim Gen Z? As Election Day approaches, we are seeing a pivot in the campaign’s messaging toward serious issues, but the memes have laid the groundwork for engagement—which, in politics as on social media, is the only winning currency. Ako vam je ovo do sada bilo too much, pripremite se za brže jače bolje, tj. koliko toga već stane u <checks notes> 200 miliona dolara 1 Link to comment
Patty Lee Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 5 minutes ago, Filozof manijak said: Zanimljiv tajming za curenje ovog dokumenta Procureo je 2012. 5 1 Link to comment
Roger Sanchez Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 16 hours ago, April said: tako da tvoja procena može do kraja čak biti blizu Teksas će još dugo dugo biti blizu, ali vjerojatno nikad preko. Link to comment
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