Coronavirus Covid-19 - opšta tema

[Aleksija]

ali iskreno, vrsta koje ne moze da se dogovori da njeni pripadnici nose maske u zatvorenom u odredjenim periodima godine, i to onda kada se nalaze medju vecim brojem ljudi - i nije bas vrsta na koju bismo mogli da se kladimo kao evolutivno najdekvatniju.

 

[Boycie]

 

3 hours ago, Have_Fun said:

Dakle, ovo cudo se ne moze pobediti
Kakva god vakcina da se napravi, virus mutira tako da je zajebe
Nema kraja ovome

 

1 hour ago, Indy said:

Kad god otvorim ovo, vidim da je moj crni pesimizam = 1 realizam...

 

Moram da se bacim na carobne pecurke, to je jedini spas...

 

Ne bi toliko crnčio oko toga  Pogledao sam još jednom onaj rojtersov tekst, u istom tom tekstu stoji sledeće:

 

Quote

The seven people who died at the nursing home in the Belgian town of Zaventem, near Brussels, were all in their 80s or 90s, and some of them were already in a poor physical condition, said Marc Van Ranst, a virologist at the University of Leuven which conducted tests on the virus found at the nursing home.

 

 

Kada neko uđe u svoje 80 i 90e godine života, sve postaje opasnost - da te pauk mrko pogleda možeš da umreš. Tako da me ne čudi da je covid ovde bio fatalan i pored vakcinacije, i običan grip je tu opasan (možda neznatno manje).

 

Onda imamo ovo:

Quote

At the nursing home in Zaventem, 21 residents were infected with the variant along with several members of staff, Van Ranst told Reuters. The infected staff experienced only mild symptoms.

 

 

Staff može da bude sve do doba penzije, dok su "samo" blagi simptomi onda je to ok valjda?

 

Uostalom cela nauka od početka govori da corona nikada neće moći da se pobedi - ali ono što može definitivno da se uradi je da se od njega napravi endemski virus koji će biti prihvatljiv uz prateće lekove i vakcine. A i oko vakcinacije (pa i budućih varijanti) smo u dosta boljoj startnoj poziciji nego marta 2020 zato što se praktično sve live prati tako da sam u celoj priči blagi optimista.

[vememah]

Podaci iz Majamija sugerišu da kolumbijska varijanta ne uspeva da se nametne pored delte: dok je udeo delte porastao sa 49 na 63 posto, udeo kolumbijske se smanjio sa 10 na 9 posto.

 

Vest od 26. jula:

Quote

Carlos Migoya, CEO of Jackson Health, revealed that now 10% of COVID-positive patients whose results are being sequenced at the University of Miami’s pathology lab have a strain that originated out of Colombia.

“And here’s a real shocking thing that’s spreading in Colombia quite a bit,” Migoya told Local 10 News. “And they haven’t seen it anywhere else outside of Colombia. Well, guess what? In the last week, 10% of our patients had the Colombian variant. Why? Because of the travel between Colombia and Miami.”

That sequencing lab reports the following percentages of variant cases among COVID positives:

Delta 49%, Brazilian 26%, Colombian 10%

https://www.local10.com/news/local/2021/07/26/colombian-covid-variant-already-spreading-in-south-florida/

 

Vest od 2. avgusta:

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While just a month ago University [of Miami] researchers had identified just two cases of the Delta variant in Miami-Dade County, new sequencing data from the second week of July reveals that 63 percent of a sampling of COVID-19 patients in Jackson Memorial Health System and at University of Miami's UHealth Tower had the highly transmissible form of the virus. This sequencing data also revealed that 20 percent of patients had the Brazilian variant (now known as Gamma), 9 percent had the Colombian variant (B.1.621), which is dominating that country, and 3 percent had the Lambda variant that is currently the dominant COVID-19 strain in Peru.Dr. David Andrews

"The Colombian variant and the Lambda variant share many of the properties of the other bad players we have seen emerging—like Delta—such as increased transmissibility and a potential to escape the immunity provided by vaccines," said Dr. David Andrews, associate professor in the Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, who is leading the University's effort to sequence COVID-19 positive samples.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-08-evidence-covid-delta-variant-rapidly.html

 

Slično su napisali i u onoj proceni PHE:

Quote

in the current context there is no indication that it is out-competing Delta

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1009009/6_August_2021_Risk_assessment_for_SARS-CoV-2_variant_VUI_21JUL-01.pdf

Edited August 7, 2021 by vememah

[Indy]

1 hour ago, Aleksija said:

ja sam umereni optimista, racunam otprilike da ce ovo u najvecoj meri biti pod kakvom-takvom kontrolom do kraja sledece godine.

klimatske promene su ono zbog cega treba da ocajavamo

Meni je to sve isto, ali ne bih o tome.

Nije to nesto sto ljudi zele da cuju, posebno ne (mladi) roditelji (kojih ovde ima ohoho).

Nego ako neko zna nekog juznoamerickog shamana, specijalistu za amanitu - PM.

Jedini lek, rastvaranje iluzije sopstva.

Edited August 7, 2021 by Indy

[Aleksija]

ne znam, moguce da je drugacija perspektiva kad zivis u srbiji. ovde je uvek sve moguce, a pojam prihvatljivog je vrlo sirok.

odavno smo izbaceni iz zone komfora.

[vememah]

Na piku dnevnog broja umrlih tokom junskog talasa u Kolumbiji sa dominantnom kolumbijskom varijantom smrtnost (računata na način koji primenjuje Our World in Data) je bila 2,44%. Tada je u Kolumbiji bilo 12% potpuno vakcinisanih stanovnika i 10% vakcinisanih jednom dozom.

Na piku dnevnog broja umrlih tokom prethodnog, januarskog talasa, u Kolumbiji smrtnost je bila 2,45%.

Reklo bi se da ta varijanta nije daleko smrtonosnija od ranijih.

Izvor: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations (izabrati samo Kolumbiju pa naći prošli i pretprošli pik dnevnog broja umrlih po pokretnom sedmodnevnom proseku, podatke o CFR-u i podatke o vakcinaciji za datum junskog pika smrtnosti)

Edited August 7, 2021 by vememah

[gospa buba]

ali iskreno, vrsta koje ne moze da se dogovori da njeni pripadnici nose maske u zatvorenom u odredjenim periodima godine, i to onda kada se nalaze medju vecim brojem ljudi - i nije bas vrsta na koju bismo mogli da se kladimo kao evolutivno najdekvatniju.
 

sad kad ne ubih neku babu medj 15 baba koje pokushavaju da ulaze i izlaze iz prostorije u koju (1) mogu da stanu 2 osobe (2) pishe napismeno da ne bude vishe od 2 osobe. shtampanim slovima velikim. nije htela ni da se raspravlja sirota, kolko je obogaljih [emoji38]ol:

a toliko jebeno jednostavno

sent from novi mnogo jak bubamoto.

[gospa buba]

ne znam, moguce da je drugacija perspektiva kad zivis u srbiji. ovde je uvek sve moguce, a pojam prihvatljivog je vrlo sirok.
odavno smo izbaceni iz zone komfora.

pa kad to tako kazesh, dosta je i komforno izvan zone. bukvalno.



sent from novi mnogo jak bubamoto.

[vememah]

Procena Moderne o daljem razvoju situacije iz konferencijskog poziva povodom prezentacije rezultata poslovanja te firme u 2. kvartalu 2021:

 

Quote

Matthew Harrison -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Great. Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. A couple of related questions on boosters, if I may.

I guess first question is, maybe you could just put in context some of the information we're hearing from the FDA or the CDC, especially ACIP on their position on boosters and how you would expect that to evolve over the coming months. Second, could you comment on the potential for a multivalent booster and how you might be thinking about that in the context of the data you presented today, especially just on using a third dose of the existing shot? And then third, could you maybe just comment on your views of long-term virus evolution? Obviously, typically, viruses tend to evolve toward more infectious, but lower virulence. And so I'm wondering what your thoughts are on the long-term booster market, obviously, versus the sort of near-term booster market when infections may still be quite high? Thanks.

Stephen Hoge -- President

Sure. Thank you, Matthew. So let me try and take the first question first. So I think we are going to always defer to what's happening with the public health officials in terms of when they think the appropriate time to recommend a booster vaccine is necessary.

Where we see the data ourselves. I can't speak to the challenges they face. But what we see is the potential for waning immunity. In fact, if you look at -- back at our Vaccines Day, we had Professor Davenport come in and present work that he's done at University of New South Wales in Australia showing what he predicted back in March would be the picture for waning immunity from the vaccine.

It was recently published in Nature Medicine. I had a chance to open and it's looking remarkably prescient because the prediction he was making about the relative strength of the different vaccines suggested that small differences in efficacy would start to emerge to be larger differences in efficacy at about 200, 250 days as neutralizing antibody titers wane. And that may be what we're starting to see. And if you play that forward, if you assume he's been right about those predictions, then that picture continues and continues through a year with continued declining -- neutralizing antibody titers over that time.

And eventually, we therefore believe a real increase in breakthrough infections and disease even with vaccinated -- even with mRNA-1273. So we continue to want to be vigilant because that trend and those predictions, we think will come to four. And I think the Delta variant has taught us to also be incredibly humble in the face of the virus' ability to fight back and increase its transmission. I mean, I think most of us would have thought SARS-CoV-2 was a pretty good infector earlier this year.

Delta has shown us that it can make huge steps forward. And so for all those reasons, we think that it's appropriate to be cautious. Our approach is not to is to defer public health and when boosters are going to be necessary, but to bring forward the best option as we see them based on the science that we see in the evolving epidemiology. And that's where I think our conclusion today is given given beta, gamma and particularly delta, given the real-world efficacy that we're seeing out there against delta right after vaccination 1273 and the neutralizing titers that we can see that I presented today against delta with the 1273 prototype dose, that we feel pretty confident that, that's actually the right way to approach this round of the fight with the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Now if I give to the second and third questions you asked, this is not the last round of the fight with SARS-CoV-2. We expect it to have at least a couple more rounds and maybe annually, we're just going to continue to fight this virus back. And that's where we think multivalent boosters continue to be an important part of the scientific strategy. As you look forward to, say, early 2022, delta is what we're fighting right now, but what are we going to be fighting in 2022? What new variant of concern? There will be one.

And I look at the evolving picture with Delta and the overall variance of concern, and there's a couple of specific things that jump out at me. There are now I think five-point mutations in the various variants of concerns, three of them present in beta and gamma. We've talked about them, the 417, 484, and 501 mutations. And now there's two mutations in the receptor binding domain in the delta strain at 452 and 478.

And those five look like the ways in which the virus has tried to step away from or neutralizing community with our vaccine immune innovation. If you think about how this might play forward, it seems logical to us that those three mutations present in the beta, gamma line and those two mutations present in the delta might find some way to combine in new and potentially scary ways. And if that came with the increased transmissibility, force of infection that delta can achieve, that might be a significant threat. And so we view our multivalent platform as the best place for us to try and anticipate that threat.

And logically, for us right now, that would be looking at a beta, gamma or a beta variant a concern combined with a delta variant concern and evaluating that going forward. And that's the 213 program that we're going to be looking at. But we don't think that for this cycle. We do really believe that 1273, a booster dose will hold up against delta right now.

The long-term virus evolution question is a great one. And I would say we just got to be humble. We've not faced a variant, a virus quite like this. And again, I don't think any of us would have predicted the steep change in transmissibility that was seen with delta over the last five, six months.

And so I wouldn't rule out that the virus doesn't have that kind of surprises in its future. But if you take a very, very long view, five, 10 years view, I would say that we continue to think the model for what SARS-CoV-2 will look like in terms of an endemic market is probably predicted by other respiratory infections, the endemic coronaviruses, like OC43, which every year have rates of reinfection in adult populations and young kids every year results in hospitalizations and some deaths, including in this country. And we, therefore, believe there will be a long-term endemic market. The virulence of those viruses, as you pointed to, is lower, and that's good news.

Hopefully, it's not as big of a threat as we're seeing right now. But we need to be cautious and humble because SARS-CoV-2 keeps surprising us. And maybe that virulence will be something more substantial than we see in the endemic coronavirus. So we're hopeful that it will wait, that virulence will decline, but we really do believe the virus is here to stay for the long term.

And therefore, there's going to be a need to regularly boost particularly high-risk older populations against SARS-CoV-2 into the future. Hopefully that answers your questions.

 

https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/08/05/moderna-inc-mrna-q2-2021-earnings-call-transcript/

[vememah]

U Britaniji broj dnevno novozaraženih prestao da opada:

 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=~GBR

[vememah]

Amerikanci za mesec dana 8x povećali broj dnevno novozaraženih, sa 12 hiljada na preko 100 hiljada.

 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=false&Align+outbreaks=false&country=~USA

[Budja]

Na drugom topicu sam pitao cherrypicking Vememaha kakva ja situacija u Britaniji, vlajda bi trebalo da se dosad raspala posle 80.000 na Vembliju, a i oni HIlandjani posle zurke.

 

 

Ovako stoje stvari:

 

 

 

[Budja]

2 hours ago, vememah said:

U Britaniji broj dnevno novozaraženih prestao da opada:

 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=~GBR

 

 

Ovo je fenomenalno, kakav recnik. Pri tom je Vememah nekako ranije propustio da nam kaze kako je u Britaniji doslo da opadanja.

 

 

[Budja]

Sta hocu da kazem?

Da vakcine rade, a da Vememah siri paniku kao da ne rade.

 

Bila je panika oko izralskog rasta, pa je nekako Vememah propustio da nas izvesti o padu brojki (ali nije propustio priliku da nas izvesti o ponovnom rastu!), nije kontekstualizovao smrtnost i bolnicki prijem. Slcno je i sa UK i Holandijom, ali ne i sa US upravo zato sto su tamo ima ogromen varijacije po drzavama u stopi vakcinacije.

[vememah]

1 hour ago, Budja said:

Sta hocu da kazem?

Da vakcine rade, a da Vememah siri paniku kao da ne rade.

 

Baš:

  

On 5.7.2021. at 0:49, vememah said:

vakcine drastično smanjuju smrtnost kod svih starosnih grupa

 

On 7.7.2021. at 19:40, vememah said:

20 okruga s najviše hospitalizovanih po glavi stanovnika trenutno u SAD.  Nema nijedan sa preko 35% potpuno vakcinisanih. U celoj državi je 47% potpuno vakcinisanih.

 

On 18.7.2021. at 0:38, vememah said:

Britanija je trenutno na 66% prethodnog pika po broju zaraženih, na 9,6% po broju hospitalizovanih, na 13,4% po broju pacijenata na intenzivnoj nezi i na 3,2% po broju umrlih.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

  

On 1.8.2021. at 11:26, vememah said:

ako se želi sprečavanje širenja kod vakcinisanih, onda trebaju češći boosteri, a ako se želi samo zadovoljavajuća zaštita od težih oblika bolesti - ređi

 

On 5.8.2021. at 17:15, vememah said:

The mRNA vaccines are highly effective at preventing symptomatic and severe COVID-19 associated with B.1.617.2 infection. Vaccination is associated with faster decline in viral RNA load and a robust serological response. Vaccination remains a key strategy for control of COVID-19 pandemic.

 

On 6.8.2021. at 17:26, vememah said:

Smrtnost među starijima od 50 (među mlađima bez obzira na vakcinisanost je manja od jednog promila): potpuno vakcinisanih umrlo 389 na 21.472 zaraženih -> smrtnost 1,8%, nevakcinisanih umrlo 205 na 3440 zaraženih -> smrtnost 6,0%, što znači da vakcinisani koji se zaraze umiru 3,3x ređe od nevakcinisanih zaraženih.

 

33 minutes ago, vememah said:

 

Zelenom je obojen osetno bolji plasman na listi umrlih (manje umrlih od proseka) u odnosu na listu slučajeva, a crvenom osetno lošiji (više umrlih od proseka).

 

Izvor svetske rang liste po broju slučajeva i smrti: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table
Izvor podataka o udelu vakcinisanih: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

 

Kačio i mape koje lepo pokazuju da je stopa smrtnosti najmanja u najviše vakcinisanim zemljama:

https://parapsihopatologija.com/forums/topic/21129-coronavirus-covid-19-opšta-tema/?do=findComment&comment=5123907

 

I grafikone koji pokazuju da je u Izraelu stopa smrtnosti smešna u odnosu na broj slučajeva (klik na strelicu gore desno):

https://parapsihopatologija.com/forums/topic/21129-coronavirus-covid-19-opšta-tema/?do=findComment&comment=5124699

Edited August 7, 2021 by vememah