Coronavirus Covid-19 - opšta tema

[mlatko]

ko šalje i zašto? klima nije osnovno ljudsko pravo uprkos tome što amer kaže

Inviato dal mio Mi 9 Lite utilizzando Tapatalk

[vememah]

Tegnelov prethodnik na mestu glavnog epidemiologa Švedske Johan Gizeke:

 

Profesor Nil Ferguson iz londonskog Imperijal koledža:

 

[mustang]

2 hours ago, mlatko said:

ko šalje i zašto? klima nije osnovno ljudsko pravo uprkos tome što amer kaže

Inviato dal mio Mi 9 Lite utilizzando Tapatalk
 

 

 

https://mynewsla.com/orange-county/2020/04/25/city-county-of-los-angeles-open-cooling-centers-in-wake-of-heat-wave-4/

 

 

 

[nera]

17 hours ago, steins said:

Iskreno, mene sekundarni aspekti mnogo više brinu nego sam Covid. U Srbiji je zdravstvo lose, a sada je i dodatno razoreno ovom epidemijom. Niko ko nije u zdravstvu ne može da shvati koliko je očajna organizacija.
Samo ću vam reći da se već mesec i kusur dana ne rade biopsije dojki u mojoj ustanovi, a to je esencijalno za bilo kakav tretman karcinoma.
To je samo jedna stvar.

Послато са Mi 9T помоћу Тапатока
 

Ovde u Vankuveru imamo malo obrnuti problem. Doktori kazu da je znacajno opala poseta odeljenjima hitne pomoci, ljudi se plase da odu u bolnicu cak i ako bi trebali da idu pa sad apeluju da se ne zezaju nego da idu ako im treba. Naveli su primer coveka koji je preminuo od srcanog udara jer nije hteo u bolnicu zbog straha od virusa.

[Fins fleet]

48 minutes ago, nera said:

Ovde u Vankuveru imamo malo obrnuti problem. Doktori kazu da je znacajno opala poseta odeljenjima hitne pomoci, ljudi se plase da odu u bolnicu cak i ako bi trebali da idu pa sad apeluju da se ne zezaju nego da idu ako im treba. Naveli su primer coveka koji je preminuo od srcanog udara jer nije hteo u bolnicu zbog straha od virusa.

Imamo nazalost i isti. Sve operacije osim najhitnijih su odlozene, rekose neki sumanuti broj  da je na cekanju zbog ovoga. No takodje rekose da ce to biti prva stvar koju ce da olabave narednog meseca (ako bude best case).

[Budja]

5 hours ago, vememah said:

Tegnelov prethodnik na mestu glavnog epidemiologa Švedske Johan Gizeke:

 

Profesor Nil Ferguson iz londonskog Imperijal koledža:

 

 

 

Gledajte ovog Svedjanina.

 

Potpuno scary. Par teza:

- Umiru matori koji bi i onako umrli za koji mesec.

- Preteruje Imperial Colege u procenama jer bi mez zatvaranja prvo umrli matori i onda bi stalo sirenje.

- Mi imamo vise umrlih nego Norveska jer su nasi domovi za stare veci.

- Stopa smrtnosti je ko grip.* 

- Lockdown je Orbanova mera, to su istocnoevropski diktatori. I Kinezi. Mi smo demokratija, ne zatvaamo ljude.

- Krivi su asylum seekeri i izbeglice koji rade po starackim domovima i ne znaju svedski.

 

 

* I to ponavlja za Svedsku.

Evo rezultata za istu:

Corona:  2,192  (jos traje)

Grip (u proseku): 1,542

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Budja]

Evo i grafika gde smo trenutno (Ekvador) po registru smrtovnica. Imati u vidu da april jos nije zavrsen.

 

Ovo je otprilike ono sto tvrdi NYT.

 

Edited April 26, 2020 by Budja

[vememah]

Quote

Coronavirus Disease Outbreak in Call Center, South Korea

We describe the epidemiology of a coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in a call center in South Korea. We obtained information on demographic characteristics by using standardized epidemiologic investigation forms. We performed descriptive analyses and reported the results as frequencies and proportions for categoric variables. Of 1,143 persons who were tested for COVID-19, a total of 97 (8.5%, 95% CI 7.0%–10.3%) had confirmed cases. Of these, 94 were working in an 11th-floor call center with 216 employees, translating to an attack rate of 43.5% (95% CI 36.9%–50.4%). The household secondary attack rate among symptomatic case-patients was 16.2% (95% CI 11.6%– 22.0%). Of the 97 persons with confirmed COVID-19, only 4 (1.9%) remained asymptomatic within 14 days of quarantine, and none of their household contacts acquired secondary infections. Extensive contact tracing, testing all contacts, and early quarantine blocked further transmission and might be effective for containing rapid outbreaks in crowded work settings.


Figure 2. Floor plan of the 11th floor of building X, site of a coronavirus disease outbreak, Seoul, South Korea, 2020. Blue coloring indicates the seating places of persons with confirmed cases.

 

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/8/20-1274_article

Edited April 26, 2020 by vememah

[vememah]

Quote

Vitamin D Supplementation Could Possibly Improve Clinical Outcomes of Patients Infected with Coronavirus-2019 (COVID-2019)
 
The rapid spread of COVID-2019 in many areas of the world calls for preventive health measures. Although basic guidelines on infection control are recommended, treatment has remained the best choice to avert mortality. However, for the time being, there are no known vaccines for the disease. In this paper, I used multinomial logistic regression to predict clinical outcomes of patients infected with COVID-2019 based on 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] levels, the barometer for Vitamin D status. Using the database of three hospitals in Southern Asian countries, I conducted a retrospective multicentre study of 212 cases with laboratory-confirmed infection of SARS-CoV-2. Data pertaining to clinical features and serum 25(OH)D levels were extracted from the medical records. For statistical analysis, I used Mann-Whitney U and χ² tests to compare differences in the clinical outcomes. Multinomial logistic regression was used to explore the association between serum 25(OH)D level and clinical outcomes of the cases. Frequency and percentage were used for categorical variables. Mean was used for continuous variables. A p-value below 0.01 was considered statistically significant. Of the 212 cases of COVID-2019, majority had ordinary clinical outcome. Mean serum 25(OH)D level was 23.8 ng/ml. Serum 25(OH)D level was lowest in critical cases, but highest in mild cases. Serum 25(OH)D levels were statistically significant among clinical outcomes. Majority had insufficient Vitamin D status, most of them were not severe. Vitamin D status is significantly associated with clinical outcomes. A multinomial logistic regression analysis reported that for each standard deviation increase in serum 25(OH)D, the odds of having a mild clinical outcome rather than a severe outcome were approximately 7.94 times (OR=0.126, p<0.001) while interestingly, the odds of having a mild clinical outcome rather than a critical outcome were approximately 19.61 times (OR=0.051, p<0.001). The results suggest that an increase in serum 25(OH)D level in the body could either improve clinical outcomes or mitigate worst (severe to critical) outcomes, while a decrease in serum 25(OH)D level in the body could worsen clinical outcomes of COVID-2019 patients. In conclusion, this study provides substantial information to clinicians and health policy-makers. Vitamin D supplementation could possibly improve clinical outcomes of patients infected with COVID-2019. Further research should conduct randomized controlled trials and large population studies to evaluate this recommendation.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3571484

Edited April 26, 2020 by vememah

[ObiW]

7 minutes ago, vememah said:

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3571484

Bolnice u Srbiji daju vitamin D uz terapiju.

[Lucia]

12 hours ago, renne said:

Sve veće teretane su objavile da se neće otvarati

 

Teretane su odgovornije od vlastodrzaca. Priznajem da imam mix feelings ali preteze da je tako mnogo pametnije.

[Djolle]

 
 
Gledajte ovog Svedjanina.
 
Potpuno scary. Par teza:
- Umiru matori koji bi i onako umrli za koji mesec.
- Preteruje Imperial Colege u procenama jer bi mez zatvaranja prvo umrli matori i onda bi stalo sirenje.
- Mi imamo vise umrlih nego Norveska jer su nasi domovi za stare veci.
- Stopa smrtnosti je ko grip.* 
- Lockdown je Orbanova mera, to su istocnoevropski diktatori. I Kinezi. Mi smo demokratija, ne zatvaamo ljude.
- Krivi su asylum seekeri i izbeglice koji rade po starackim domovima i ne znaju svedski.
 
 
* I to ponavlja za Svedsku.
Evo rezultata za istu:
Corona:  2,192  (jos traje)
Grip (u proseku): 1,542
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Odgledao. Ali su mi utisci bitno različiti.

Ovo što priča mi nije scary, deluje mi više kao glas razuma. Više me plaši histerija koja vlada u većem delu sveta.

Da, ljudi umiru, stariji ljudi umiru i bez korone. Umiru svake godine od gripa, pa ih niko ne zaključava kad je sezona gripa.

Za procene Engleza je naveo više razloga zašto misli da su preterane, jedan od razloga je što bolničke kapacitete računaju nepromenljivim, dok je Švedska npr 3 puta povećala ICU kapacitete.

Rekao je da je njegova zemlja uradila koš posao kad je u pitanju zaštita starih u domovima. Ti domovi su veći po kapacitetu od Norveških, pa to doprinosi većoj razlici u smrtnosti, ne vidim tu ništa sporno.

Za strance koji rade u domovima nije rekao da su krivci, bar ja to nisam tako shvatio, već 1 od razloga zašto ta mera nije sprovedena kako treba.

Tačno je da je lockdown lakše sprovesti u diktaturama. Kršenje ustava i zakona se ne mogu pravdati brigom za zdravlje ljudi.

Da, na kraju to poređenje sa gripom. Rekao je da je uporedivo sa jačom sezonom gripa, možda i duplo jačom od proseka, ali svakako ne 10 puta jačom. Videćemo koliko je to tačno, ovi sadašnji brojevi su teško uporedivi, na koronu se ljudi posthumno testiraju da bi se utvrdilo prisustvo virusa, ne znam da li se to ikad radilo za grip.

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[Glass Joe]

Super, dakle imamo grip, ajde jos na povrh toga da dodamo i ovu koronu

[vememah]

2 hours ago, Djolle said:

Da, na kraju to poređenje sa gripom. Rekao je da je uporedivo sa jačom sezonom gripa, možda i duplo jačom od proseka, ali svakako ne 10 puta jačom.

 

Jedino što ga malo više jebu serološki testovi koji počinju da se sprovode u raznim zemljama (Island, davaoci krvi u Holandiji, Nemačka, Njujork, okrug Majami-Dejd...), koji pokazuju da smrtnost nije uporediva s jačom sezonom gripa, već da je 5 ili 10 puta veća.

 

A i fizički npr. u gradu Njujorku više nije moguće da smrtnost bude 0,1% kakva je kod gripa u SAD.

Quote

 

How Deadly is COVID19? NYC Sets a Lower Bound

 

By Josh Marshall

April 21, 2020 12:40 p.m.

 

There’s been a lot of discussion about how deadly COVID19 is. It’s always seemed highly unlikely that the number of fatalities per lab-confirmed cases is at all representative of the true percentage of people who die from being infected with COVID19. That number was over 3% in China, about 5.4% in the US currently and has ranged as high as 10% in Italy. Far too many cases are escaping lab confirmed detection for those to be close to accurate.

But what’s the lower bound? Many researchers seem to think something in the neighborhood of 1% is most likely. But that’s more a ballpark than any sort of real estimate. It could be substantially lower or higher. Serology tests will eventually get us to something like hard evidence. But we’re not close to there yet.

Meanwhile there have been others arguing for much lower percentages, as far down as .1%. Some of those people are driven by politics or ideological investment, holding out for the idea that the actual mortality is comparable to the flu. But not all of them. Bear in mind that even if COVID19 only killed .2% of its victims the potential cost in lives would be vastly greater than the flu since nobody has any immunity to it at all.

But here’s one number that is worth noting.

As of two days ago New York City reports 13,683 COVID19 deaths. 9,101 of those are lab confirmed and 4,582 are diagnosed on the basis of symptoms but with no lab confirmed test. The City has a population of 8,398,748 million, as of the 2018 Census estimate. So as of now, .16% of New York’s population has died from COVID19.

Even if you held the number to just those with a lab confirmed diagnosis, you’re still at .11%

We don’t know how many New Yorkers have been exposed to COVID19. For the city this is a critical question since it will give us important information about possible 2nd or 3rd waves of the disease, as well as a better understanding of disease mortality. But it is certainly not the case that every New Yorker has been exposed. So this gives us an extremely firm lower bound. Even if you assume that wildly more New Yorkers than anyone thinks was infected you’re still way over .2%. Indeed, if half of New Yorkers have been infected, that gets you to about a .35% rate of fatality per infection.

I don’t think many people were seriously thinking only .1% of people died of COVID19. But unfortunately New York City has now definitively ruled that out possibility.

 

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/how-deadly-is-covid19-nyc-sets-a-lower-bound

 

Trenutno je broj umrlih u Njujorku 16.270 od kojih je 10.961 laboratorijski potvrđeno.

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

 

Dakle, to je smrtnost od 0,13% ako računaš da je ceo grad već zaražen i gledaš samo laboratorijski potvrđene slučajeve, odnosno 0,19% ako gledaš sve slučajeve koronavirusa bez obzira na način dijagnostikovanja.

 

Pritom je serološkim ispitivanjem procenjeno da svega 21% stanovnika grada Njujorka ima antitela, tj. da je preležalo ili trenutno boluje od koronavirusa, što ukazuje da je realna stopa smrtnosti nekih 5x veća od te.

 

Quote

Data from the U.S. showed that about 13.9% of New York state’s population has been in contact with the virus, including 21% in New York City.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-24/coronavirus-mass-covid-19-antibody-tests-have-serious-limits

 

Pritom u Njujorku i dalje ima gomila nezatvorenih slučajeva, što znači da smrtnost može samo da raste.

Edited April 26, 2020 by vememah

[čekmeže]

16 minutes ago, freakns said:

ovo je otprilike kako sam i ja razumeo.

covek nigde nije rekao da treba svi da izadju napolje i pljuju jedni po drugima, vec je rekao da treba posmatrati stvari razumno. 

 

 

Pa to je osnovna greška, što polazi od toga da će ljudi sami od sebe da se ponašaju razumno, bez elemenata prisile, što je potpuna budalaština.

Što se tiče rezultata koji će se videti. Švedska je u top10 po broju umrlih na milion stanovnika, a po apsolutnom broju u top 15, što je katastrofa za onoliku površinu sa 10 miliona ljudi.