Coronavirus Covid-19 - opšta tema

[Gojko & Stojko]

 

Australijski glavni doktor (CMO) Brendan Marfi u izveštaju pred senatom izjavio da i dalje misli da je smrtnost od virusa oko 1% (u odnosu na broj zaraženih) i da veća smrtnost samo znači da obim testiranja nije dovoljan jer ne hvataju sve zaražene (po tome od "evropskih" zemalja samo Rusija i Izreal testiraju dovoljno, čak i Nemačka ima veću smrtnost).

 

Za ilustraciju, poslednjih dana je u NSW testirano dnevno preko 4000 ljudi, a detektovano samo po 5 novih slučajeva (malo više od 0.1%).

 

Broj pozitivnih testova od početka epidemije u NSW je oko 1.7%. Na Tajvanu je još manje, 0.75%, na NZ 1.2%.

 

Na drugoj strani, Ekvador ima 31.2%, a UK 24.1%,

 

Srbija, koja je ranije bila iznad UK (u ovom postu sam preneo stanje od 4. aprila), je u međuvremenu sa 23.4% spala na 15.9% i po tome je ispod Švedske koja ima 16.2%.

 

U UK su pre nekoliko nedelja tvrdili da će da drastično povećaju broj testova do 100000 dnevno, ništa od toga, procenat pozitivno detektovanih im je od 4. aprila čak porastao, tad je bio 22%. Izgleda da za njihovu vlast najbolji izraz ima Del Boj.

 

 

Chief Medical Officer briefed PM after human transmission link clear

The nation's Chief Medical Officer waited three weeks to brief Prime Minister Scott Morrison on the global emergence of COVID-19, when it became clear the virus was spreading through human-to-human transmission.

 

Professor Brendan Murphy this morning told a Senate committee hearing that his department was alerted to the existence of SARS-CoV-2 on January 1, but remained in a "watching mode" until it was clear on January 19 the virus was spreading through human-to-human transmission.

 

He said China had assured the World Health Organisation prior to this date that it had the virus under control.

 

"All the data coming out of China suggested ... [a] cluster of cases. There were about 43 cases and then they said there had been no new cases for a week and all cases have come from animals," Professor Murphy said.

 

He said Australia had been "well prepared" for a global pandemic and acted earlier than many other nations by declaring the novel coronavirus had pandemic potential on January 21.

 

Professor Murphy said the health department had been cleared to "spend what you need to keep Australia safe" in replenishing the national medical stockpile, including stocking up on personal protective equipment such as masks.

 

He said the government had been paying "premium prices" for masks, while sorting through offers from various parties to sell PPE to health authorities - including some "fairly outrageous price demands".

 

Professor Murphy said the government's decision to follow health advice in imposing progressively tighter border measures, culminating in the grounding of all international flights and mandatory hotel quarantine for returned citizens, had been "one of the biggest reasons for our success" in tackling COVID-19.

 

"Two thirds of cases in Australia have been returning travellers," the chief medical officer said. He said all governments had followed the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee's advice, which meant "difficult decisions" had to be made to protect the public.

Borders to be shut for at least four more months: chief medical officer

The nation's Chief Medical Officer says Australians should not expect international travel to resume for at least three to four months, saying the risk of importing coronavirus from overseas is too great.

 

Professor Brendan Murphy told a Senate inquiry into Australia's response to the COVID-19 pandemic that while it was "very hard to put a timeline on anything at the moment", opening borders would be the last stage of any easing of restrictions.

 

"I wouldn't be envisaging any material changes to border measures in that three to four months," he said.

 

"The international situation at the moment is such that any relaxation of border measures would be very risky and we just recommended to the national cabinet only a few days ago that we continue the very restrictive bans on people, basically Australians leaving the country, unless there are exceptional circumstances, or anyone except Australian citizens coming back, and then only when they are formally quarantined.

 

"They are extraordinary measures but the international spread of this virus is huge including to some countries where we know they're not ascertaining cases very well, including in our region."

 

Professor Murphy said Australia's status as an island nation had allowed it to implement border restrictions "more effectively than other countries" and that "our colleagues in the United States and the United Kingdom regret that they didn't do the same."

 

"We knew that the greatest risk of uncontrolled transmission was from imported cases," he told a Senate committee hearing into Australia's response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

"We had a huge amount of traffic from China, a very large number of flights."

 

Professor Murphy also rejected claims that the coronavirus may be spreading in Australia undetected, saying health authorities had expanded testing criteria weeks ago and the results showed it was "very unlikely" widespread community transmission was happening.

 

"In most jurisdictions, we are testing every single person who has acute respiratory illness," he said. "We would have found evidence of this."

 

This distinguished Australia from other countries, including in Europe where the coronavirus had spread through "potentially thousands" of people who did not realise they were infected during the winter cold and flu season.

 

Professor Murphy said he still believed the fatality rate of COVID-19 was about 1 per cent, despite higher figures overseas, saying this was due to low levels of testing meaning "they're not ascertaining cases".

 

He said Australia was aiming to emulate Taiwan's success in keeping infection numbers low through "aggressive contact tracing and isolation", but warned that there was always a risk of another outbreak.

 

"We have to be very aware that while we have only had seven cases in the last 24 hours, there is a permanent risk of further cases," Professor Murphy said.

"This is a highly infectious virus and it can take off fairly quickly."

 

SaE

[Caligula]

13 hours ago, dvb-t manijak said:

Ana Kapor na FB

 

Meni hajlajt (globalni) ovo sa maskama.

 

Svi treba da ih nose ali se uporno pojavljuju clanci kako maske ne stite od virusa

Edited April 23, 2020 by Caligula

[Jozef K.]

Pa ne štite u nekoj značajnoj meri. Ali štite druge od tebe ukoliko imaš.

[vememah]

Quote

 

U Severnoj Makedoniji od četvrtka obavezno nošenje maski

 

Građani Severne Makedonije od sutra će morati da nose zaštitne maske radi sprečavanja širenja korona virusa, odlučila je vlada u Skoplju.

To je, kako je saopšteno, jedna od "mekih mera" individalne odgovornosti u zajedničkoj borbi za kolektivno zdravlje, koja je usvojena zajedno sa odlukom o skraćivanju "policijskog sata".

Prema uredbi Vlade Severne Makedonije, zaštitna oprema na licu mora obavezno da se nosi u svim zatvorenim javnim prostrima gde ima više ljudi, kao što su marketi, prodavnice, banke, pošte, državne i zdravstvene ustanove, javni prevoz.

Na otovorenom prostoru maske moraju obavezno da se nose na pijacama i na mestima gde ne postoji mogućnost da se održava fizička distanca od dva metra.

Građani neće morati da nose zaštitnu opremu kada su u svojim dvorištima, kada voze bicikl, bave se se individualnim sportom ili se voze automobilom sa bliskima.

Obaveza nošenja zaštitne opreme od danas se već primenjuje u Kimanovu, Tetovu i Prilepu, gradovima u kojima se poslednjih dana kovid 19 najbrže širio.

 

https://www.slobodnaevropa.org/a/30570874.html

[renne]

Ustavni sud u BiH proglasio neustavnom odluku da stariji od 65 i mlađi od 18 ne smeju da izlaze.
Posle 22 dana od donošenja odluke

[vememah]

Quote

NEWS RELEASE

COVID-19 SEROPREVALENCE: FIRST ESTIMATE OF THE PREVALENCE OF COV-2 IGG ANTIBODIES IN THE POPULATION OF GENEVA

Wednesday 22nd April 2020

 - First estimation of the prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in the Geneva population - First validation of an automated serological testing platform against the new coronavirus

The University Hospitals of Geneva (HUG), more specifically the Population Epidemiology Unit of the Service de médecine de première recours, the Centre for Emerging Viral Diseases and the Service de Médecine de Laboratoire, conducted a study to estimate the prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in a representative sample of the Geneva population. The minimum global seroprevalence of 5.5% suggests that as of 17 April 2020, approximately 27'000 people have been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 in the canton of Geneva.

Prior to this, the HUG conducted a study to validate the performance of a high-throughput serological testing platform that measures type G immunoglobulins (IgG) directed against SARS-CoV 2. This is the only high-throughput facility (200 tests/hour) currently available. The results of the study indicate that this test reliably confirms exposure to CoV-SARS-2 20 days after the onset of symptoms. The platform is being used for the population-based study mentioned above.

Seroprevalence surveys based on the detection of specific immunoglobulin type G (IgG) are of utmost importance to know the proportion of the population that has ever been exposed to coronavirus. The presence of these immunoglobulins (antibodies) in the blood confirms that a person has been exposed to the virus. However, the presence of immunoglobulins (antibodies) in the blood does not indicate full or partial immunity to the virus. Indeed, at the present state of knowledge, we know neither the level of protection that this immunity confers against a new infection nor its possible duration. For this reason, the test is not yet available to the general population.

In order to evaluate the seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the canton of Geneva, the HUG launched a survey among a representative sample of the population. People who had already participated in the Bus Santé study (annual health survey of the canton's population) were randomly selected and invited with their families to take a blood sample and fill in a questionnaire. The study began on 6 April 2020 and runs until the end of May.

Preliminary results are based on the first 760 participants, i.e. 343 (54% women, 46% men, 87% adults and 13% minors) between 6 and 10 April and 417 participants (53% women, 47% men, 87% adults and 13% minors) for the week of 14 to 17 April 2020.

These first data show an estimated seroprevalence in the population of 3.5% (possible variability from 1.6% to 5.4%) for the first week and 5.5% (possible variability from 3.3% to 7.7%) for the second week. This sample, and the time period studied, are too small to infer with certainty the percentage weekly increase, but a significant increase was observed between the two weeks.

The overall seroprevalence of 5.5% suggests that almost 27,000 people were exposed to SARS-CoV-2 in the canton of Geneva. This is a minimal estimate, probably linked to multiple uncertainties, including the time needed to develop immunity and the dynamics of the epidemic. It is expected that this seroprevalence in the population will increase in the coming weeks due to the recent increase in the number of cases in the canton.

Interpretation of these seroprevalence estimates must be made with great caution. The still limited number of participants, the short duration of follow-up, and the influence of the performance of serological tests must be taken into account. Monitoring changes in seroprevalence over time is particularly important for anticipating and planning the public health response.

https://www.hug-ge.ch/medias/communique-presse/seroprevalence-covid-19-premiere-estimation
(translation by Deepl)

 

Prema zvaničnom dokumentu o broju obolelih u ženevskom kantonu:
https://www.ge.ch/document/covid-19-situation-epidemiologique-geneve/telecharger

 

...u periodu od 6-10 aprila u tom kantonu bilo je negde 4100-4200 zaraženih (očitano s grafika). Kanton ima oko pola miliona stanovnika, što bi značilo da je zvanični procenat registrovanih tada bio 0,83% pa se za tu nedelju dobija da je broj zaraženih potcenjen oko 4 puta.

 

...u periodu od 14-17 aprila u tom kantonu bilo je negde 4500 zaraženih, što bi značilo da je zvanični procenat registrovanih tada bio 0,9% pa se za tu nedelju dobija da je broj zaraženih potcenjen oko 6 puta.

Trenutna stopa smrtnosti u odnosu na registrovane slučajeve po najsvežijim podacima je 205/4710 = 4,35%. Ako je precenjena nekih 5 puta zbog toga što je registrovani broj zaraženih potcenjen u odnosu na stvarni, to bi značilo da je realna stopa smrtnosti negde oko 0,9%.

 

Kao i drugde gde su rađene serološke studije, i ovde se dobija realna stopa smrtnosti manja od 1%, ali opet višestruko veća od one sezonskog gripa za koju se navodi da iznosi 0,1 ili 0,2%.

Edited April 23, 2020 by vememah

[Jozef K.]

11 hours ago, NiZdr said:

Италијани избацили интерактивни график са упоредним подацима за 2019. и 2020 у периоду од 1. јануара до 4. априла за све покрајине.

https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/241428

 

 

Kako izabereš celo mesto? Ja samo mogu da iuzaberem komunu u okviru Milano, a nigde ne nalazim zbirno za grad ili celu provinciju.

 

Inače skinuo sam neki excel. Zbirno za ova četiri meseca broj umrlih.

2015: 61811

2016: 55123

2017: 62138

2018: 60296

2019: 60218

2020: 78555

[NiZdr]

Не може за провинције, само за општине. Пише изнад  Attenzione: è possibile visualizzare i dati solo per singolo Comune


 

[NiZdr]

Izvini ustvari može klikneš na comune i tu imaš opcije include i exclude values, štikliraš exclude i dobiješ podatke samo za provinciju. Na isti fazon i za region.

 

 

 

Edited April 23, 2020 by NiZdr

[Tresko]

Provincije više i ne postoje. Imate comune(opština), città ili area metropolitana(gradovi), i regione(region). Provincije su ukinute.

[Jozef K.]

Hvala!

[Lo Zingaro]

2 minutes ago, Tresko said:

Provincije više i ne postoje. Imate comune(opština), città ili area metropolitana(gradovi), i regione(region). Provincije su ukinute.

 

Renzi like this 

 

U stvarnom svetu postoje i imaju predsednike i ljudstvo koje prima platu nizasto. I u statistiku a i zvanicnu anagrafiku se uvek vode opstina, provincija i region.

[gospa buba]

Ustavni sud u BiH proglasio neustavnom odluku da stariji od 65 i mlađi od 18 ne smeju da izlaze.
Posle 22 dana od donošenja odluke

i shta sad, na primer? mislim, kad su to saznali?

sent from bubamoto

[Lo Zingaro]

U ovom statistickom obrascu, comune di Milano se odnosi na sam grad Milano.

[Lo Zingaro]

1 minute ago, gospa buba said:

i shta sad, na primer? mislim, kad su to saznali?

sent from bubamoto
 

Nista, sad ce ih terati da budu napolju barem 18 sati dnevno dok ne doknade propusteno.