Coronavirus Covid-19 - opšta tema

[Nesh]

 

 

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Saopšteno je da su u poslednja 24 sata urađena 263 testa na koronavirus, a ukupno je dosad urađeno 12.133 testiranja.

 

Pitam se jel ovaj broj testova (cini mi se da se ranije vise testiralo, mozda gresim) eventualno zbog uskrsa ili se, nadam se, situacija poboljsava pa toliko ima onih koji ispunjavaju uslove za testiranje?

Edited April 20, 2020 by Nesh

[Budja]

1 hour ago, InvisibleLight said:

Nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) pollution [learn more] "may be one of the most important contributors to fatality caused by the COVID-19" a recent study [source] found after analyzing death cases from 66 administrative regions in Italy, Spain, France, and Germany. "Results show that out of the 4443 fatality cases, 3487 (78%) were in five regions located in north Italy and central Spain. Additionally, the same five regions show the highest NO2 concentrations combined with downwards airflow which prevent an efficient dispersion of air pollution. These results indicate that the long-term exposure to this pollutant may be one of the most important contributors to fatality caused by the COVID-19 virus in these regions and maybe across the whole world." [source]

•  
• 83% of all fatalities (3701 cases) occurred in regions where the maximum NO2 concentration was above 100 μmol/m2
• 15.5% (691 cases) occurred in regions where the maximum NO2 concentration was between 50 and 100 μmol/m2
• 1.5% of all fatalities (51 cases) occurred in regions where the maximum NO2 concentration was below 50 μmol/m2

 

A slucajno su ti regioni i najjaci ekonomski, i slucajno se tu muva najvise ljudi (Madrid, Pariz, London, Lombardija, NY)

Sramotno predstavljanje korelacije za kauzalnost. Sramotno sta se sve objavljuje.

[InvisibleLight]

1 minute ago, Budja said:

 

A slucajno su ti regioni i najjaci ekonomski, i slucajno se tu muva najvise ljudi (Madrid, Pariz, London, Lombardija, NY)

Sramotno predstavljanje korelacije za kauzalnost. Sramotno sta se sve objavljuje.

 

ne znam, sori ako je glupo, objavio gardian i kaze

 

The analysis is only able to show a strong correlation, not a causal link. “It is now necessary to examine whether the presence of an initial inflammatory condition is related to the response of the immune system to the coronavirus,” Ogen said.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/20/air-pollution-may-be-key-contributor-to-covid-19-deaths-study

[Kampokei]

6 hours ago, April said:

Konstataciju da je Bild opskuran tabloid ne bih komentarisao.

 

Grozan tabloid, ali nikako opskuran.

 

Film Izgubljena cast Katarine Blum (rezija Schlondorff i von Trotta) govori o tome kako masovni mediji mogu da potpuno ujebu neciji zivot (jos onda, 70-tih). Bild se ne pominje, ali na kraju tik pre odjavne spice ide na ekranu tekst, sada pisem po secanju: "Svaka slicnost sa Bild Zeitungom u ovom filmu je nenamerna, ali je i neizbezna".

[NiZdr]

2 hours ago, dùda said:

šta je ovo danas sa belim rusima ? oa onda singapur ?

li to sve ima veze sa vikendom ?

Решио Батка да их мало окужи и да игнорише вирус, вероватно слуша наше епидемиологе. Расписао им је четри радне суботе за април, није затворио цркве за Ускрс и нема намеру да одустане од Параде победе.

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В Белоруссии число зараженных коронавирусом выросло почти на треть и составило 6264 человека. Об этом в понедельник, 20 апреля, сообщает «Sputnik Беларусь» со ссылкой на данные министерства здравоохранения республики.

На выходных Минздрав не публиковал данные о новых заражениях, однако теперь раскрыл информацию. К утру субботы в Белоруссии было 518 новых случаев, к воскресенью — еще 510, за последние сутки — 457.

Таким образом, с пятницы число зараженных коронавирусом выросло на 31,07 процента. Пациенты, не имеющие клинических проявлений либо имеющие слабые проявления, лечатся на дому.

В Минске выявлены 3023 инфицированных, в Минской области — 789. Всего по стране провели свыше 102 тысяч анализов на коронавирус.

Выписаны 514 человек, в тяжелом состоянии находятся 92 пациента. «Умер 51 пациент с рядом хронических заболеваний с выявленной коронавирусной инфекцией», — добавили в Минздраве.

Ранее стало известно, что власти Белоруссии отказались отменить из-за коронавируса военный парад, запланированный в Минске на 9 мая по случаю 75-летней годовщины Победы в Великой Отечественной войне.

https://lenta.ru/news/2020/04/20/statistika/

 

 

https://chervonec-001.livejournal.com/3222427.html
 

 

[cedo]

2 hours ago, Nesh said:

 

 

 

Pitam se jel ovaj broj testova (cini mi se da se ranije vise testiralo, mozda gresim) eventualno zbog uskrsa ili se, nadam se, situacija poboljsava pa toliko ima onih koji ispunjavaju uslove za testiranje?

 

valjda je ovo drugo  

[Budja]

1 hour ago, InvisibleLight said:

 

ne znam, sori ako je glupo, objavio gardian i kaze

 

The analysis is only able to show a strong correlation, not a causal link. “It is now necessary to examine whether the presence of an initial inflammatory condition is related to the response of the immune system to the coronavirus,” Ogen said.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/20/air-pollution-may-be-key-contributor-to-covid-19-deaths-study

 

Korelacija u fusnoti a vidi naslov:

 

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Air pollution may be ‘key contributor’ to Covid-19 deaths – study

 

To je neodgovorno novinarstvo (makar bio  The Guardian, NYT i sl.) i neodgovorna struka koja hrani antinaucne pokrete i antivaksere.

 

A milion zdravstvenih clanaka su upravo jebena smesna korelacija zgodna za novinske naslove, samo pogledaj clanke sta jesti a sta ne za  rak, srce i sl...

[braca]

xkcd to davno objasnio :

 

[TdEII]

 

And now something completely different:

 

Uzorak nije veliki, ali je dobar početak. Link ka originalu na Javnom servisu:  New test: At least 11 out of 100 have antibodies to the coronavirus in the Stockholm area 

Gugl (red.) prevod:

 

"UPDATED TODAY 21: 25PUBLISHED TODAY 20:58

 

In a new corona test done on blood donors in the Stockholm area, it turns out that at least 11 out of 100 had developed antibodies. The actual figure is believed to be higher.

 

"It's enough information that we can't keep it," says Jan Albert, professor of clinical microbiology at Karolinska University Hospital.

 

Karolinska University Hospital and Karolinska Institutet have worked together to produce a new antibody test in the fight against covid-19. In recent weeks, researchers have conducted test tests in two sessions of 100 persons each. The tests used blood from blood donors. The second round, conducted last week, showed that at least 11 people out of 100 had developed antibodies to the coronavirus.

 

Jan Albert is a consultant in clinical microbiology at Karolinska University Hospital and has worked on the preparation of the samples. Tomorrow the tests will be put into operation on a larger scale.

 

 - We are happy to have a test that we know is okay. It is not 100 percent sensitive, it has sensitivity of 70-80 percent. Some will test negative even though they have had it. But no one will test false positively. Those we have tested that should be negative have been, says Jan Albert.

 

A good start

 

The first blood donor test is not a facet, but can be seen as an indication of the extent - even though it is believed to be higher. For example, given the accuracy of the test and that it was only performed on a person who has been healthy from covid-19 for at least two weeks.

 

- One cannot draw conclusions about the exact percentages, but we know that the 11 percent have had it. It is too little for a research report, but too important to sit and hold on, says Jan Albert, and says that further research remains.

 

- We will continue to get better and better clarity. We will be looking at more blood donors this week. It would be best to have a large random selection, says Jan Albert.

One third were infected

 

Tom Britton, professor of mathematical statistics, says that a third of Stockholmers have already become infected. According to his calculations, the spread is still large, but is slowly declining.

 

- In about a month, the worst spread of infection will be over in Stockholm. Then we will be close to the so-called herd immunity, Tom Britton tells SVT.

 

Although Tom Britton's calculations do not fully match the tests conducted by Jan Albert, Tom Britton believes that there are no contradictions between the two studies.

 

- Both studies have uncertainties. If my estimation is slightly high and the other a little too low, the truth is probably somewhere in between, says Tom Britton."

 

___

Štokholm grad ima oko 960-975 000 stanovnika, cela provincija oko 2 200-2 300 000, ako se traži koliko je 11%

[Budja]

53 minutes ago, braca said:

xkcd to davno objasnio :

 

 

Ne, ovo je jos gore.

 

Nema C, D, i E.

Nista.

Samo A i B na

 

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Received 7 April 2020

Accepted 8 April 2020

 

 

Quote

YaronOgenThe Department of Remote Sensing and Cartography, Institute of Geosciences and Geography, Von-Seckendorff-Platz 4, Room: H4 2.23, Martin-Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale)

 

Casopis je, kao, Q1, ali kad vidim da casopis ima eksponencijalni rast publikacija, odmah mi je sumnjivo (2014: 2582; 2018: 6640).

 

 

 

Edited April 20, 2020 by Budja

[Budja]

18 minutes ago, TdEII said:

 

And now something completely different:

 

Uzorak nije veliki, ali je dobar početak. Link ka originalu na Javnom servisu:  New test: At least 11 out of 100 have antibodies to the coronavirus in the Stockholm area 

Gugl (red.) prevod:

 

"UPDATED TODAY 21: 25PUBLISHED TODAY 20:58

 

In a new corona test done on blood donors in the Stockholm area, it turns out that at least 11 out of 100 had developed antibodies. The actual figure is believed to be higher.

 

"It's enough information that we can't keep it," says Jan Albert, professor of clinical microbiology at Karolinska University Hospital.

 

Karolinska University Hospital and Karolinska Institutet have worked together to produce a new antibody test in the fight against covid-19. In recent weeks, researchers have conducted test tests in two sessions of 100 persons each. The tests used blood from blood donors. The second round, conducted last week, showed that at least 11 people out of 100 had developed antibodies to the coronavirus.

 

Jan Albert is a consultant in clinical microbiology at Karolinska University Hospital and has worked on the preparation of the samples. Tomorrow the tests will be put into operation on a larger scale.

 

 - We are happy to have a test that we know is okay. It is not 100 percent sensitive, it has sensitivity of 70-80 percent. Some will test negative even though they have had it. But no one will test false positively. Those we have tested that should be negative have been, says Jan Albert.

 

A good start

 

The first blood donor test is not a facet, but can be seen as an indication of the extent - even though it is believed to be higher. For example, given the accuracy of the test and that it was only performed on a person who has been healthy from covid-19 for at least two weeks.

 

- One cannot draw conclusions about the exact percentages, but we know that the 11 percent have had it. It is too little for a research report, but too important to sit and hold on, says Jan Albert, and says that further research remains.

 

- We will continue to get better and better clarity. We will be looking at more blood donors this week. It would be best to have a large random selection, says Jan Albert.

One third were infected

 

Tom Britton, professor of mathematical statistics, says that a third of Stockholmers have already become infected. According to his calculations, the spread is still large, but is slowly declining.

 

- In about a month, the worst spread of infection will be over in Stockholm. Then we will be close to the so-called herd immunity, Tom Britton tells SVT.

 

Although Tom Britton's calculations do not fully match the tests conducted by Jan Albert, Tom Britton believes that there are no contradictions between the two studies.

 

- Both studies have uncertainties. If my estimation is slightly high and the other a little too low, the truth is probably somewhere in between, says Tom Britton."

 

___

Štokholm grad ima oko 960-975 000 stanovnika, cela provincija oko 2 200-2 300 000, ako se traži koliko je 11%

 

I tako:

 

Quote

One cannot draw conclusions about the exact percentages, but we know that the 11 percent have had it. It is too little for a research report, but too important to sit and hold on, says Jan Albert, and says that further research remains.

 

Cova kontradiktoran dva puta sam sebi u istoj  recenici: "Ne mozemo da zakljucimo ali znamo." "Rano je za izvestaj, ali je vazno."

 

 

 

 

[TdEII]

Just now, Budja said:

 

I tako:

 

Cova kontradiktoran dva puta sam sebi u istoj  recenici: "Ne mozemo da zakljucimo ali znamo." "Rano je za izvestaj, ali je vazno."

 

 

Njah... ne može da kaže još ukupni tačni procenat  ljudi sa antitelima, na uzorku koji su obnarodovali to je 11% Imaju još jedan set, a proširuju merenja. Po njegovim kriterijumima 100 ispitanika je premali uzorak za naučni rad (i po mojim, tako da sve OK) - a nije da nismo  videli masu nekih istraživanja i sa manjim brojem test objekata. Dovoljno je, međutim, za nešto poput progress report. Fine sifre   Brojevi će se samo poboljšavati, do kraja meseca širi testovi i u još nekim gradovima/provincijama, a do kraja maja i daleko brojniji nacionalni (svakako se nadam reprezentativnom uzorku). 

[Budja]

1 minute ago, TdEII said:

 

Njah... ne može da kaže još ukupni tačni procenat  ljudi sa antitelima, na uzorku koji su obnarodovali to je 11% Imaju još jedan set, a proširuju merenja. Po njegovim kriterijumima 100 ispitanika je premali uzorak za naučni rad (i po mojim, tako da sve OK) - a nije da nismo  videli masu nekih istraživanja i sa manjim brojem test objekata. Dovoljno je, međutim, za nešto poput progress report. Fine sifre   Brojevi će se samo poboljšavati, do kraja meseca širi testovi i u još nekim gradovima/provincijama, a do kraja maja i daleko brojniji nacionalni (svakako se nadam reprezentativnom uzorku). 

 

Onda, ako nemas sta da kazes, sacekaj dve nedelje, ne moras sada i odmah u medije. Cutanje je nekad zlato. Veca je steta od pogresnih izvestaja od nedostatka izvestaja.

Edited April 20, 2020 by Budja

[TdEII]

1 minute ago, Budja said:

 

Onda, ako nemas sta da kazes, sacekaj dve nedelje, ne moras sada i odmah u medije. Cutanje je nekad zlato. Veca je steta od pogresnih izvestaja od nedostatka izvestaja.

 

Dobro. Za Jana i Tima ne garantujem, ali ja mogu da ućutim trajno. Nema problema. 

[Budja]

1 minute ago, TdEII said:

 

Dobro. Za Jana i Tima ne garantujem, ali ja mogu da ućutim trajno. Nema problema. 

 

Nije namenjeno tebi, zaboga, nego Janu i Timu. Ne mislim da su Jan i Tim losi naucnici, Karolinska je valjda super u svemu, ali valja se ponekad suzdrzati od medijske paznje.