Coronavirus Covid-19 - opšta tema

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Coronavirus: What are the chances of dying?

By Robert CuffeHead of Statistics

• 1 hour ago

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• Coronavirus outbreak

Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES Image captionMore than 50 countries have now confirmed cases

Researchers currently think that between five and 40 coronavirus cases in 1,000 will result in death, with a best guess of nine in 1,000 or about 1%.

On Sunday, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the UK government's "very best assessment" was that the mortality rate was "2% or, likely, lower".

But it depends on a range of factors: your age, sex and general health and the health system you are in.

How hard is it to work out the death rate?

It is PhD-level hard. Even counting cases is tricky.

Most cases of most viruses will go uncounted because people tend not to visit the doctor with mild symptoms.

The different death rates we are seeing reported around the world are unlikely to be due to different versions of the virus.

According to research by Imperial College, it's because different countries are better or worse at spotting the milder, harder to count cases.

So under-reporting cases makes it easy to overestimate the death rate. But you can also get it wrong in the other direction.

It takes time before an infection results in recovery or death.

If you include all cases that haven't yet had a chance to run their course, you will underestimate the death rate because you are missing the cases that will end in death later.

• Coronavirus: All you need to know
• A visual guide to the outbreak

Scientists combine individual pieces of evidence about each of these questions to build a picture of the death rate.

For example, they estimate the proportion of cases with mild symptoms from small, defined groups of people who are monitored very tightly, like people on repatriated flights.

But slightly different answers from those pieces of evidence will add up to big changes in the overall picture.

If you just use data from Hubei, where the death rate has been much higher than elsewhere in China, then the overall death rate will look much worse.

So scientists give a range as well as a best current estimate.

But even that doesn't tell the full story because there is no single death rate.

• How is the UK getting ready for coronavirus?

What's the risk for people like me?

Some types of people are more likely to die if they contract coronavirus: the elderly, the unwell and, maybe, men.

In the first big analysis of more than 44,000 cases from China, the death rate was ten times higher in the very elderly compared to the middle-aged.

The death rates were lowest for the under 30s - there were eight deaths in 4,500 cases.

And deaths were at least five times more common among people with diabetes, high blood pressure or heart or breathing problems.

There was even a slightly higher number of deaths among men compared to women.

All of these factors interact with each other and we don't yet have a complete picture of the risk for every type of person in every location.

Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES Image captionAt least 621 people were infected on the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan

What's the risk for people where I live?

A group of 80-year-old men in China could have very different risks to men of the same age in Europe or Africa.

Your prognosis also depends on the treatment you get.

In turn, that depends on what is available and the stage of the epidemic.

If the epidemic takes off, then healthcare systems could get swamped with cases - there are only so many intensive care units or ventilators available in any given area.

Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES Image captionCoronavirus patients in England are being treated at a specialist centre at the Royal Free Hospital in London

Is it more dangerous than flu?

We can't compare mortality rates because many people with mild flu symptoms choose never to visit a doctor.

So we don't know how many cases there are of flu, or any new virus every year.

But flu continues to kill people in the UK, as it does every winter.

As the data evolves, scientists will develop a clearer picture of who would be most at risk should a coronavirus outbreak arrive in the UK.

The basic advice from the WHO is that you can protect yourself from all respiratory viruses by washing your hands, avoiding people who are coughing and sneezing and trying not to touch your eyes, nose and mouth.

• What is the coronavirus advice in the UK?

[vememah]

Referenca na Kinu u piramidi je svakako netačna pošto se u Kini u zadnjih mesec i kusur vrlo detaljno testira s obzirom na to da su stanju da nedeljno proizvedu preko milion i po kompleta za testiranje, a u najgorim vremenima su imali maksimalno 4000 slučajeva dnevno, čak toliko da se npr. u provinciji Gvangdong koja je druga po broju zaraženih pozitivni slučajevi mere u promilima.

 

Iz izveštaja SZO o Kini objavljenog nakon sprovođenja misije na licu mesta:

Quote

Currently, there are at least 6 local producers of PCR test kits approved by NMPA. Overall, producers have the capacity to produce and distribute as many as 1,650,000 tests/week.

...

Within the fever clinics in Guangdong, the percentage of samples that tested positive for the COVID-19 virus has decreased over time from a peak of 0.47% positive on 30 January to 0.02% on 16 February. Overall in Guangdong, 0.14% of approximately 320,000 fever clinic screenings were positive for COVID-19.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

 

I inače, za preživljavanje nije relevantna jedino verovatnoća umiranja ako imaš zdravstvenu negu o kojoj se naširoko diskutuje u članku, nego i verovatnoća da ćeš uopšte biti primljen u bolnicu ako imaš ozbiljnije simptome. Kao što smo videli, na severu Italije su mnoge bolnice već pune posle 10 dana ubrzanog širenja virusa.

 

I još ovo: ako se sistem u Iranu ili bilo gde drugde potpuno raspadne za šta nažalost postoje ozbiljne indicije i milioni očajnika među kojima i mnogi zaraženi krenu preko granica, katastrofa je neizbežna na jedan ili drugi način.

Edited March 1, 2020 by vememah

[duda]

23 minutes ago, vememah said:

I još ovo: ako se sistem u Iranu ili bilo gde drugde potpuno raspadne za šta nažalost postoje ozbiljne indicije i milioni očajnika među kojima i mnogi zaraženi krenu preko granica, katastrofa je neizbežna na jedan ili drugi način.

koje su to ozbiljne inidicije za potpuni raspad sistema jedne države i gde je izvor za ovo ?

[vememah]

Država u kojoj se potpredsednici države (1 od 12 ukupno), poslanici, dekani, predsednici opština i zamenici ministara masovno razboljevaju od virusa i u kojoj se dešava spaljivanje bolnica od strane rulje daleko je od organizovane.

Quote

Vice President Masoumeh Ebtekar, Mr. Rouhani’s deputy for women’s affairs and the highest-ranking woman in the government, has a confirmed coronavirus infection and is quarantined at home, her deputy said Thursday.
...
Besides Ms. Ebtekar, the other Iranian officials infected include: Mojtaba Zolnour, a member of Parliament from Qom and head of Parliament’s national security and foreign policy committee; Mahmoud Sadeghi, an outspoken member of Parliament from Tehran; Iraj Harirchi, the deputy health minister who had been leading the effort to contain the coronavirus; Morteza Rahmanzadeh, the mayor of a Tehran district; Dr. Mohamad Reza Ghadir, head of coronavirus management in Qom and director of the city’s state medical university, and Hadi Khosroshahi, a prominent cleric and former ambassador to the Vatican.

Mr. Khosroshahi, 81, died, Iran’s official media reported.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/world/middleeast/coronavirus-iran-vice-president.html

 

Quote

A clinic in the Iranian city of Bandar Abbas was torched on Friday because some people believed that coronavirus patients from another city were quarantined in it, according to Iranian media reports.

Rumors spread that 10 infected people were transported from the city of Qom, the epicenter of the virus in Iran, to Towhid Clinic, according to social media posts.

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2020/02/29/Watch-Clinic-in-Iran-set-on-fire-believed-to-be-coronavirus-quarantine-.html

Edited March 1, 2020 by vememah

[Redoran]

Ako je spaljivanje bolnica kriterijum, Ukrajina će se raspasti pre nego Iran.

 

Biće u Iranu zlo i naopako sa ovim virusom ali ne znači da će država implodirati. Bliskoistočni mentalitet je malo drugačiji kada su ovakve situacije u pitanju.

[vememah]

2 minutes ago, Redoran said:

ne znači da će država implodirati

Najiskrenije se nadam da si u pravu.

[vememah]

Quote

 

Pacijent koji je bio u Italiji smešten na Infektivno odeljenje u Kraljevu

 

Na Infektivno odeljenje kraljevačke Opšte bolnice oko podneva je preventivno smešten pedesettrogodišnji K. M. iz Studenice.

Direktor kraljevačke bolnice dr Zoran Mrvić rekao je za RTS da K. M. ima simptome slične simptomima koronavirusa.

"Pacijent je došao iz Italije sa temperaturom. Urađeni su mu brisevi i sve neophodne analize poslate su već na 'Torlak', a rezultate očekujemo već večeras", rekao je dr Mrvić.

 

https://www.rts.rs/page/stories/sr/story/125/drustvo/3871745/kraljevo-pacijent-koronavirus-italija.html

 

Bravo za granične službe.

[Zabalujev]

18 minutes ago, vememah said:

 

Najiskrenije se nadam da si u pravu.

Niš se ne brini, dok im je Garde i mudrog verskog rukovodstva, nema zime.

 

Samo da Lejla Hatami pretekne.

 

26 minutes ago, vememah said:

according to social media posts.

[Have_Fun]

Stigao i u Cesku

Italijani danas preko 560...

[vememah]

@Zabalujev

 

Khm, objave na društvenim mrežama odnose se na glasine dovoženja zaraženih pacijenata iz Koma, ne na spaljivanje bolnice. 

 

Spaljivanje bolnice je potvrdila jedna od nekoliko državnih agencija, a postoji i snimak. Da si pročitao ceo članak, znao bi.

 

Quote

However, the semi-official Fars News Agency referred to the claims of people being transferred to the southern Bandar Abbas city as “unfounded rumors” and that this information “angered” some residents who then set fire to the clinic.

 

Edited March 1, 2020 by vememah

[Zabalujev]

Pazi, ovaj meni skreće pažnju na iranske medije

Inače, ne znam gde si pročitao da ja osporavam tačnost nečega što ti linkuješ.

[vememah]

Što, u Iranu si ili znaš persijski?

[Dzudi]

1 hour ago, vememah said:

https://www.rts.rs/page/stories/sr/story/125/drustvo/3871745/kraljevo-pacijent-koronavirus-italija.html

 

Bravo za granične službe.

 

Na zvaničnom sajtu covid19 rs  do 18 časova nije potvrđen nijedan slučaj korona virusa kod nas. 

 

Koliko treba vremena da se uradi analiza testa? I kako je čovek došao- avionom, automobilom..?

 

 

[Spirit]

Rezultat će se znati veceras, objavljeno na N1 malopre 

[Tihajeza]

Čujem od mog najpouzdanijeg medicinskog izvora da se Covid testovi izvode malo-malo, čim neko ozbiljinje zakašlje, a koštaju 20000 komad.