Coronavirus Covid-19 - opšta tema

[dillinger]

Super je Nemacka. 

 

https://www.romania-insider.com/coronavirus-romanian-seasonal-workers-fly-germany

[Valkyrie]

Pa ok, prošli put kad je bila opšta frka u Evropi, radnike su transportovali u natrpanim vagonima. Avionom je ipak lepše.

 

 

/crnjak off

[Aleksija]

6 hours ago, steins said:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

This morning we have some data giving a little more insight into the great unknown of the coronavirus pandemic: just how widely among the population has SARS-CoV-2 — the virus which causes COVID-19 — spread among the general population. A team at the University of Bonn has tested a randomized sample of 1,000 residents of the town of Gangelt in the north-west of the country, one of the epicenters of the outbreak in Germany. The study found that two percent of the population currently had the virus and that 14 percent were carrying antibodies suggesting that they had already been infected — whether or not they experienced any symptoms. Eliminating an overlap between the two groups, the team concluded that 15 percent of the town have been infected with the virus.

This number matters hugely because it tells us what we need to know in order to judge how deadly the virus is and also how easily it spreads. It tells us, ultimately, how useful the methods are that we are employing in order to combat the virus. As explained here before, the question of how many people already have the infection is at the heart of a debate between epidemiologists at the Imperial College and Oxford university.

Two weeks ago, the latter published modeling claiming that up to half the UK population might already have been infected with the virus — a level of infection which would mean that lockdown may be the wrong approach, as we would already have achieved a state of herd immunity, preventing the further spread of the disease.

The Gangelt study does not provide support for the idea that half of the population of Britain, or any other country, has been infected with the virus. But for a town to have an infection rate of 15 percent suggests that the virus had spread a lot further than many believed. Neil Ferguson, who leads the Imperial team, told the FT this week that he believes between three and five percent of the UK population has already been infected.

Data from coronavirus deaths in Gangelt suggests an infection mortality rate of 0.37 percent, significantly below the 0.9 percent which Imperial College has estimated, or the 0.66 percent found in a revised study last week.

The 15 percent figure from Gangelt is interesting because it matches two previous studies. Firstly, there was the accidental experiment of the cruise ship the Diamond Princess, which inadvertently became a floating laboratory when a passenger showing symptoms of COVID-19 boarded on January 20 and remained in the ship, spreading the virus, for five days. The ship was eventually quarantined on February 3 and all its 3,711 passengers tested for the virus. It turned out the 634 of them — 17 percent — had been infected, many of them without symptoms. The mortality rate on the vessel was 1.2 percent — although, inevitably being a cruise ship, it was a relatively elderly cohort.

We gained another insight into SARS-CoV-2 from a Chinese study into 391 cases of COVID-19 in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen. In this case, scientists tested everyone who shared a household with people who were found to be suffering from the disease. It turned out 15 percent of this group had gone on to be infected with SARS-CoV-2 themselves. Again, many showed no symptoms.

Obviously these are all small-scale studies and none of them are deliberate experiments to see how far SARS-CoV-2 will spread if it is allowed to ‘rip through’ a population. But they do raise the question: is there a ceiling on the number of people who are prone to be infected with the disease? Do many of us have some kind of natural protection against infection? Would it ever spread among more than about one in six of us?

The British government has based its planning and policy for COVID-19 on the assumption that if the virus was allowed to spread unchecked it would eventually infect 80 percent of the population. That is a figure that seems to have been borrowed from planning for a flu pandemic, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it applies to this virus. The sooner we have the results of more studies like that at Gangelt, the better a picture we have and the sooner we will be able to plot a path out of lockdown.

 

 

 

Treća studija koja pokazuje da je ukupan broj zaraženih oko 20%, da je smrtnost 0,39% a da 14% imaju antitela?! 

Poklapa se sa ciframa u prethodne dve studije - od toga je jedna moja omiljena, kruzerska™

 

hm, zanimljivo, narocito ova pitanja pri kraju. 

 

inace, proguglala sam malo o asimptomatskim kod influence, ispostavlja se (nakon povrsnog preletanja, doduse) da recimo h1n1 ima neki vro nedefinisan broj asimptomatskih, procene variraju od jednocifrenog do jedne trecine ili cak mnogo veceg procenta od svih inficiranih. zavisi i od varijeteta, vremena, konkretne epidemije... ako sam dobro razumela.

i sad mi nije jasno zasto se onda  kod covid 19 ta karakteristika toliko istice, izgleda da tu nema ekskluzivitet.

sve u svemu, fascinantna tema, steta sto je previse blizu kuce, da ne kazem u primacoj sobi.

[Gojko & Stojko]

 

Odličan članak o praćenju kontakata i koliko ljudi na tome radi i čime se koriste u poređenju sa istočnoazijskim zemljama, ima informacije o tome koliko se brzo virus širi i na kakvim mestima, ništa novo ali lepo sažeto i na jednom mestu, očekivano jer je iz serije  "Explainer" članaka  (ovde se inače dnevni rast već nekoliko dana stabilizovao na oko 1.5%).

Contact tracing: How disease detectives are closing in on COVID-19 in Australia

SaE

[precog]

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Coronavirus infection may cause lasting damage throughout the body, doctors fear

 

[Krošek]

vizuelizacija toga kako je kovid postao vodeci uzrok smrti u americi tokom pandemije (na dnevnoj bazi)

Covid vs. US Daily Average Cause of Death

[vememah]

Belorusija, Tadžikistan, Burundi i Nikaragva jedine su četiri države na svetu u kojima se trenutno igra fudbal.

https://www.danas.rs/sport/vladimir-novakovic-pripreme-za-prenos-meceva-tadzikistanske-lige-nisu-nimalo-lake/

[NiZdr]

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В частности, в городе Бергамо в первые три недели марта умерли 398 человек, тогда как в предыдущие 5 лет (в среднем) - 91 человек. То есть смертность выросла в 4 раза. Такая же ситуация практически во всех муниципалитетах провинции Бергамо. В городе Брешия число смертей выросло со 134 до 381, почти втрое. В городах Пьяченца и Кремона зарегистрировано увеличение более чем в три раза. В Милане - на 40% (там эпидемия началась позже).
 

https://vokrugsveta.ua/people/statistika-vs-konspirologiya-v-italii-opublikovali-tsifry-obshhej-smertnosti-za-mart-11-04-2020

Италијански завод за статистику је избацио нове податке 9. априла.

https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/240401

 

[vememah]

Broj umrlih u Italiji u prvih 12 sedmica ove godine (crveno) u poređenju sa petogodišnjim prosekom za prvih 12 sedmica (2015-2019):

 

Ukupan broj umrlih od 1. do 28. marta po najpogođenijim provincijama u poređenju sa petogodišnjim prosekom:

 

Ukupan broj umrlih od 1. do 28. marta po starosnim grupama u poređenju sa petogodišnjim prosekom:

 

Sve slike su iz ovog niza tvitova:
https://twitter.com/diabolicus23/status/1248754949879730176

 

Rast broja umrlih zbog bilo kog uzroka u martu u pojedinim provincijama u poređenju sa martom 2019:

 

Edited April 12, 2020 by vememah

[gone fishing]

ovaj prvi graf je irelevantan jer je prokuženost stanovništva italije južno od gotske linije praktično kao kod nas na balkanu

[BarryWhite]

Update iz Ugande

[Anduril]

11 hours ago, Valkyrie said:

Pa ok, prošli put kad je bila opšta frka u Evropi, radnike su transportovali u natrpanim vagonima. Avionom je ipak lepše.

/crnjak off

Inace, rumunska i nemacka vlada su intervenisale posle ovog skandala - uzrok su bili autobusi koji su dovezli radnike na aerodrom ne pridrzavajuci se  rasporeda da bi se postovale mere izolacije.
Ovi radnici su inace izuzetno vazni da bi se odrzala sigurnost snadbevanja hranom sirom Evrope, sto je kriticno u vreme panike. Isti problem je i u Spaniji, Italiji ili Francuskoj.
Kako si uspela ovaj problem da povezes sa nacistima, ostavlja bez teksta.

Ustvari jasno je, ali iznenadjuje svaki put.

[vememah]

9 hours ago, precog said:

Coronavirus infection may cause lasting damage throughout the body, doctors fear

Dosta bitan članak.

Quote

SCIENCE

 

Coronavirus infection may cause lasting damage throughout the body, doctors fear

By MELISSA HEALY
STAFF WRITER 
APRIL 10, 20203:03 PM

For a world grappling with the new coronavirus, it’s becoming increasingly clear that even when the pandemic is over, it won’t really be over.

Now doctors are beginning to worry that for patients who have survived COVID-19, the same may be true.

For the sickest patients, infection with the new coronavirus is proving to be a full-body assault, causing damage well beyond the lungs. And even after patients who become severely ill have recovered and cleared the virus, physicians have begun seeing evidence of the infection’s lingering effects.

In a study posted this week, scientists in China examined the blood test results of 34 COVID-19 patients over the course of their hospitalization. In those who survived mild and severe disease alike, the researchers found that many of the biological measures had “failed to return to normal.”

Chief among the worrisome test results were readings that suggested these apparently recovered patients continued to have impaired liver function. That was the case even after two tests for the live virus had come back negative and the patients were cleared to be discharged.

At the same time, as cardiologists are contending with the immediate effects of COVID-19 on the heart, they’re asking how much of the damage could be long-lasting. In an early study of COVID-19 patients in China, heart failure was seen in nearly 12% of those who survived, including in some who had shown no signs of respiratory distress.

When lungs do a poor job of delivering oxygen to the body, the heart can come under severe stress and may emerge weaker. That’s concerning enough in an illness that typically causes breathing problems. But when even those without respiratory distress sustain injury to the heart, doctors have to wonder whether they have underestimated COVID-19’s ability to wreak lasting havoc.

“COVID-19 is not just a respiratory disorder,” said Dr. Harlan Krumholtz, a cardiologist at Yale University. “It can affect the heart, the liver, the kidneys, the brain, the endocrine system and the blood system.”

There are no long-term survivors of this wholly new disease: Even its first victims in China are little more than three months removed from their ordeal. And physicians have been too busy treating the acutely ill to closely monitor the progress of the roughly 370,000 people worldwide known to have recovered from COVID-19.

Still, doctors are worried that in its wake, some organs whose function has been knocked off kilter will not recover quickly, or completely. That could leave patients more vulnerable for months or years to come.

“I think there will be long-term sequelae,” said Yale cardiologist Dr. Joseph Brennan, using the medical term for a disease’s downstream effects.

“I don’t know that for real,” he cautioned. “But this disease is so overwhelming” that some of the recovered are likely to face ongoing health concerns, he said.

Another question that could take years to answer is whether the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 may lie dormant in the body for years and spring back later in different form.

It wouldn’t be the first virus to behave that way. After a chicken pox infection, for instance, the herpes virus that causes the illness hides quietly for decades and often emerges as the painful affliction shingles. The virus that causes hepatitis B can sow the seeds of liver cancer years later. And in the months after the West African Ebola epidemic subsided in 2016, the virus responsible for that illness was found to have taken up residence in the vitreous fluid of some of its victims’ eyes, causing blindness or vision impairment in 40% of those affected.

Given SARS-CoV-2’s affinity for lung tissue, doctors quickly suspected that some recovered COVID-19 patients would sustain lasting damage to their lungs. In infections involving the coronavirus that cause severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), about one-third of recovered patients had lung impairment after three years, but those symptoms had largely cleared 15 years later. And researchers found that one-third of patients who suffered Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) had scarring of the lungs — fibrosis — that was probably permanent.

In a mid-March review of a dozen COVID-19 patients discharged from a hospital in Hong Kong, two or three were described as having difficulty with activities they had done in the past.

Dr. Owen Tsang Tak-yin, director of infectious diseases at Princess Margaret Hospital in Hong Kong, told reporters that some patients “might have around a drop of 20 to 30% in lung function” after their recovery.

Citing the history of lasting lung damage in SARS and MERS patients, a team led by UCLA radiologist Melina Hosseiny is recommending that patients who have recovered from COVID-19 get follow-up lung scans “to evaluate long-term or permanent lung damage including fibrosis.”

As doctors try to assess organ damage after COVID-19 recovery, there’s a key complication: Patients with disorders that affect the heart, liver, blood and lungs face a higher risk of becoming very sick with COVID-19 in the first place. That makes it difficult to distinguish COVID-19 after-effects from the problems that made patients vulnerable to begin with — especially so early in the game.

Right now, “we’re all in the middle of it,” said Dr. Kim Williams, a cardiovascular disease specialist at Rush University Medical Center in Chicago. “We have much more information about what happens acutely, and we’re trying to manage that.”

What they do know is that when COVID-19 patients show symptoms of infection, the function of many organs is knocked off course. And when one organ begins to fail, others often follow.

Add to that chaos the force of inflammation, which flares in those with severe COVID-19. The result can do damage throughout the body, prying plaques and clots from the walls of blood vessels and causing strokes, heart attacks and venous embolisms.

Krumholtz, who organized a meeting of cardiologists to discuss COVID-19 this week, said the infection can cause damage to the heart and the sac that encases it. Some patients develop heart failure and/or arrhythmias during the disease’s acute phase.

Heart failure weakens the organ, though it can regain much of its strength with medications and lifestyle changes. Still, former COVID-19 patients can become lifelong cardiology patients.

Muddying this picture is another potential after-effect: blood abnormalities that make clots of all sorts more likely to form.

In a case report published this week in the New England Journal of Medicine, Chinese doctors described a patient with severe COVID-19, clots evident in several parts of his body, and immune proteins called antiphospholipid antibodies.

A hallmark of an autoimmune disease called antiphospholipid syndrome, these antibodies sometimes occur as a passing response to an infection. But sometimes they linger, causing dangerous blood clots in the legs, kidneys, lungs and brain. In pregnant women, antiphospholipid syndrome also can result in miscarriage and stillbirth.

Brennan said that in a new disease like COVID-19, the signposts that usually guide physicians in assessing a patient’s long-term prognosis are just not there yet. “Coagulopathy,” for instance, “usually rights itself,” he said.

“But this isn’t usual.”

 

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-10/coronavirus-infection-can-do-lasting-damage-to-the-heart-liver

Edited April 12, 2020 by vememah

[BarryWhite]

In other news from Uganda 

 

https://twitter.com/KagutaMuseveni/status/1248263895191601154?s=19

[InvisibleLight]

evo i hrvatska dobila 60 tona zastitne opreme od kine, mi smo 40, nije fer!