Coronavirus Covid-19 - opšta tema

[Кристофер Лумумбо]

Verovatno raste i broj testiranih? 

[Lo Zingaro]

10 minutes ago, steins said:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

This morning we have some data giving a little more insight into the great unknown of the coronavirus pandemic: just how widely among the population has SARS-CoV-2 — the virus which causes COVID-19 — spread among the general population. A team at the University of Bonn has tested a randomized sample of 1,000 residents of the town of Gangelt in the north-west of the country, one of the epicenters of the outbreak in Germany. The study found that two percent of the population currently had the virus and that 14 percent were carrying antibodies suggesting that they had already been infected — whether or not they experienced any symptoms. Eliminating an overlap between the two groups, the team concluded that 15 percent of the town have been infected with the virus.

This number matters hugely because it tells us what we need to know in order to judge how deadly the virus is and also how easily it spreads. It tells us, ultimately, how useful the methods are that we are employing in order to combat the virus. As explained here before, the question of how many people already have the infection is at the heart of a debate between epidemiologists at the Imperial College and Oxford university.

Two weeks ago, the latter published modeling claiming that up to half the UK population might already have been infected with the virus — a level of infection which would mean that lockdown may be the wrong approach, as we would already have achieved a state of herd immunity, preventing the further spread of the disease.

The Gangelt study does not provide support for the idea that half of the population of Britain, or any other country, has been infected with the virus. But for a town to have an infection rate of 15 percent suggests that the virus had spread a lot further than many believed. Neil Ferguson, who leads the Imperial team, told the FT this week that he believes between three and five percent of the UK population has already been infected.

Data from coronavirus deaths in Gangelt suggests an infection mortality rate of 0.37 percent, significantly below the 0.9 percent which Imperial College has estimated, or the 0.66 percent found in a revised study last week.

The 15 percent figure from Gangelt is interesting because it matches two previous studies. Firstly, there was the accidental experiment of the cruise ship the Diamond Princess, which inadvertently became a floating laboratory when a passenger showing symptoms of COVID-19 boarded on January 20 and remained in the ship, spreading the virus, for five days. The ship was eventually quarantined on February 3 and all its 3,711 passengers tested for the virus. It turned out the 634 of them — 17 percent — had been infected, many of them without symptoms. The mortality rate on the vessel was 1.2 percent — although, inevitably being a cruise ship, it was a relatively elderly cohort.

We gained another insight into SARS-CoV-2 from a Chinese study into 391 cases of COVID-19 in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen. In this case, scientists tested everyone who shared a household with people who were found to be suffering from the disease. It turned out 15 percent of this group had gone on to be infected with SARS-CoV-2 themselves. Again, many showed no symptoms.

Obviously these are all small-scale studies and none of them are deliberate experiments to see how far SARS-CoV-2 will spread if it is allowed to ‘rip through’ a population. But they do raise the question: is there a ceiling on the number of people who are prone to be infected with the disease? Do many of us have some kind of natural protection against infection? Would it ever spread among more than about one in six of us?

The British government has based its planning and policy for COVID-19 on the assumption that if the virus was allowed to spread unchecked it would eventually infect 80 percent of the population. That is a figure that seems to have been borrowed from planning for a flu pandemic, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it applies to this virus. The sooner we have the results of more studies like that at Gangelt, the better a picture we have and the sooner we will be able to plot a path out of lockdown.

 

 

 

Treća studija koja pokazuje da je ukupan broj zaraženih oko 20%, da je smrtnost 0,39% a da 14% imaju antitela?! 

Poklapa se sa ciframa u prethodne dve studije - od toga je jedna moja omiljena, kruzerska™

 

 

e: ajd nek mi neko pojasni - jesu li to Talijani opet relaskirali™ mere? 

Danas je gomila ljudi hodala po gradovima.

[cedo]

1 minute ago, lo zingaro said:

Danas je gomila ljudi hodala po gradovima.

 

to ce se videti tek za 10ak dana

 

ovo danas je od ranije

[Lord Protector]

 

Quote

 

The influence operation behind Russia’s coronavirus aid to Italy

How the Kremlin is using Covid-19 crisis to undermine NATO and the EU

TEXT BY  NATALIA ANTELAVA

Spoiler

 Natalia Antelava is a co-founder and editor-in-chief of the award-winning media start-up Coda Story. Originally from Tbilisi, Georgia, Natalia started her career freelancing in West Africa. Following that, she was the BBC’s resident correspondent in the Caucasus, Central Asia, Middle East, Washington DC and India. She covered the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008, the war in Eastern Ukraine and reported undercover from Burma, Yemen and Uzbekistan. Her investigations into human rights abuses in Central Asia, Iraq and the United States have won her a number of awards and an Emmy nomination. In addition to a career in broadcast journalism, Natalia has also written for the Guardian, Forbes magazine and the New Yorker among others.

 AND JACOPO IACOBONI 

2 APRIL, 2020 

This piece was produced in collaboration with La Stampa

 

 

Edited April 11, 2020 by slow

[pasha]

Srbija glumi jake mere zbog pr vlasti dok gradilista i fabrike rade sa radnicima bez zastite. Italijani se setkaju, Nemci se druze itd. Ovo ce malo duzo potrajati u Evropi nego li na Dalekom istoku.

[Borisha]

14 minutes ago, Have_Fun said:

Sta je sa Singapurom?

Uglavnom su imali ispod 100 dnevnih slucajeva, a sad zaredali 3 dana, 300, 200, 200.
U jednom momentu mi se cinilo da su oni tamo resili problem.

 

Da bi Singapur funkcionisao, potrebno je mnogo stranih radnika. Malezija se zakljucala, i sad su im smestaji u domovima za radnike po malo optereceni. U neke od njih usao virus i tamo se brzo siri. To je ovo veliko ubrzanje u poslednjih par dana.

 

https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/35-more-cases-discharged-191-new-cases-of-covid-19-infection-confirmed

 

Ovde je koliko testiraju, i koliko je ponovljeno https://www.moh.gov.sg/covid-19

 

12800 testova na milion, a 8300 osoba na milion

Edited April 11, 2020 by Borisha

[Ravanelli]

pricao danas neki hrvatski doktor iz singapura da zapravo cesto ove bez simptoma ne moze da provali test, pa kao bas se mozes zajebati i jako lako pustiti nekog bolesnog da se šećka

 

Reko rodjace, idi u kurac, daj neku lepu vest, za jedan dan karantina sam 800 puta cuo 'tata', smislio si vakcinu, oslabice virus, nemoj ovo jbt

[Borisha]

1 minute ago, Ravanelli said:

pricao danas neki hrvatski doktor iz singapura da zapravo cesto ove bez simptoma ne moze da provali test, pa kao bas se mozes zajebati i jako lako pustiti nekog bolesnog da se šećka

 

Reko rodjace, idi u kurac, daj neku lepu vest, za jedan dan karantina sam 800 puta cuo 'tata', smislio si vakcinu, oslabice virus, nemoj ovo jbt

 

Mislim da testiraju samo sa simptomima, ako nisu nesto promenili u poslednjih nekoliko dana. I to temperatura preko 38.

[Anduril]

1 hour ago, halloween said:

Zaobiđite te komentare o nezavisnoj nemačkoj štampi.

Regovao je i  ministar spoljnih poslova.

Pomoć Itaiji je cinično simbolična, to je već sad vidljivo da se Nemačka ponaša kao Baja Patak, stvari su otišle predaleko.

 

Simbolicna?

Da li ti je poznato koliko italijanskih obveznica je do sada kupila ECB?

Kako je moguce da se Italija zaduzuje poslednjih 20 godina po mnogo povoljnijim uslovima od vremena lire i da ce se tako i dalje zaduzivati iako joj ekonomija stagnira a mladi beze glavom bez obzira?

Da li ti je poznato kako bi Italija prosla ako ne bi bila u Evrozoni posle ove krize?

Kolike bi bile kamate kada bi se zaduzivali u lirama?

 

Sta mislis ko je to sve platio poslednjih 20 godina?

Da ti pomognem - evropske (dobrim delom nemacke) stedise kroz istorijski nenormalno niske ECB kamate.

Iznosi o kojima ovde pricamo se mere trilionima Evra tokom ovih godina a bice jos mnogo vise usled ove krize.

Bez toga bi Italija bila u totalnom raspadu.

Ovih 500 milijardi je samo direktna pomoc kroz mehanizme koji vec postoje, a pomoc kroz ECB (kao i Fed) ce opet biti glavni deo koji ce otplacivati generacije stedisa - Nemaca, Holandjana, Francusa i Italijana - tj. pre svega evropski regioni sa jakim trgovinskim suficitom koji su ekonomski najjaci.

Dakle, placace svi zajedno, solidarno kako i treba, a kao i do sada.

Zato je degutantno kada se ponavljaju ovakve gluposti i Sputnjikovska propaganda po ko zna koji put

Jedva se docekalo.

Edited April 11, 2020 by Anduril

[Tresko]

Inače, kod mene u regionu: 50 novih slučajeva(2.230 tekućih slučajeva), 6 umrlih(179 od početka), 772 ozdravilo.

[James Marshall]

No no, ima tema za napušavanje

[Anduril]

Inace, da dodam, tzv. Koronabonds o kojima se prica bi imale smisla ukoliko bi se uveo pravi evropski federalni nivo vlasti kao u SAD.

 

Ni u SAD pojedine drzave ne mogu da se zaduzuju kako hoce i mogu da bankrotuju.

[zgembo]

22 minutes ago, Anduril said:

 

Simbolicna?

Da li ti je poznato koliko italijanskih obveznica je do sada kupila ECB?

Kako je moguce da se Italija zaduzuje poslednjih 20 godina po mnogo povoljnijim uslovima od vremena lire i da ce se tako i dalje zaduzivati iako joj ekonomija stagnira a mladi beze glavom bez obzira?

Da li ti je poznato kako bi Italija prosla ako ne bi bila u Evrozoni posle ove krize?

Kolike bi bile kamate kada bi se zaduzivali u lirama?

 

Sta mislis ko je to sve platio poslednjih 20 godina?

Da ti pomognem - evropske (dobrim delom nemacke) stedise kroz istorijski nenormalno niske ECB kamate.

Iznosi o kojima ovde pricamo se mere trilionima Evra tokom ovih godina a bice jos mnogo vise usled ove krize.

Bez toga bi Italija bila u totalnom raspadu.

Ovih 500 milijardi je samo direktna pomoc kroz mehanizme koji vec postoje, a pomoc kroz ECB (kao i Fed) ce opet biti glavni deo koji ce otplacivati generacije stedisa - Nemaca, Holandjana, Francusa i Italijana - tj. pre svega evropski regioni sa jakim trgovinskim suficitom koji su ekonomski najjaci.

Dakle, placace svi zajedno, solidarno kako i treba, a kao i do sada.

Zato je degutantno kada se ponavljaju ovakve gluposti i Sputnjikovska propaganda po ko zna koji put

Jedva se docekalo.

Porodica sa troje dece, svo troje se gadno razbole u isto vreme. Muž i žena moraju da uzmu bolovanje da se brinu o njima. Para malo, pa odu kod svog bogatog prijatelja, da im pomogne, da im da lekove i hranu. Prijatelj kaže: 'E, nešto baš  sad nemam apsolutno ništa, ali ok ste vi, snaći ćete se. Znam da ćete biti u još većoj gabuli kad sve ovo prođe - svratite onda da vam pozajmim, biće ok kamata.'

[vememah]

 

 

 

[Micko8]

14 hours ago, Ravanelli said:

u turskoj šutka

 

 

 

 

Dobre su ovakve aktivnosti za jacanje imuniteta.