Coronavirus Covid-19 - opšta tema

[cedo]

14 minutes ago, čekmeže said:

Ne, nisi utopista. Kako zamišljaš da svi živimo na minimalcu a da ne uključuje angažovanje države sa automatskim oružjem?

 

slazem se ... ljudi su sebicni

[Desmond Bojčinski]

2 minutes ago, zgembo said:

Na stranu što ima gomila radova u kojima je dokazano da samo korišćenje respiratora dovede do ARDS-a.

Kod Kovida možda.

 

Za ostale patologije mogu da tvrdim da je procenat manji od 0.1

Edited March 28, 2020 by desboj

[gone fishing]

7513 new cases and 844 new deaths in Spain 

[Desmond Bojčinski]

11 minutes ago, desboj said:

0.1

Kenjam, još manje je. Nikad nisam video čoveka da je zapatio ARDS od respiratora a malo je reći da su mi stotine prošle kroz ruke.

[villiem]

20 minutes ago, cedo said:

 

grubo je mozda zvucalo, i naravno da ja ne treba da pokrivam rodjenog u srbiji (mislim mogu poslati pare ), ali mogu tamo gde zivim

ideja je da svi zive na minimalcu, i oni koji rade, a neki ce moci raditi i ta dva meseca

ja jesam jedan od njih i naravno da sam spreman da se odreknem svega sto je preko minimuma na dva meseca da bi mogli da pocnemo da zivimo koliko toliko normalno

nisam ja toliki altruista i utopista kako zeli mujica da misli ... koliko duze ovo traje, i moj posao moze da dodje u probleme ... svaciji, pre ili kasnije

 

Mislim da nije potrebno dva meseca, ne znam sta ocekuju kada tek dolazi inficiranje koje se dogodilo pre dve nedelje. Mogu da pomere na 13 do 5 i ubace ponovo od 20 do 21.Svakako ce modifikovati

Mogu da produze sa vikend rasponom na radnu nedelju, sve vodi na isto al eto da sacekamo 

 

 

[cedo]

Iceland employs detective work, testing and quarantine in coronavirus fight

 

Last week, up to 1,800 people were tested in a single day; Iceland has tested a far greater proportion of its population than anywhere else on earth, including South Korea — another country touted for its effective response to the pandemic.

But what makes Iceland unique is that test samples are not only taken from ‘high risk’ individuals who have exhibited symptoms, came into contact with known carriers, or returned from countries such as China and Italy, they are also offered to thousands of ordinary members of its general population, who are nonsymptomatic.

The data derived from this widespread testing show that while almost a fifth of those from the ‘high risk’ population prove positive for COVID-19, roughly 1 percent of the general population also carry the virus ‘asymptomatically’ — without showing or experiencing obvious signs of sickness.

[cedo]

Abbott launches 5-minute Covid-19 test for use almost anywhere

 

Abbott Laboratories is unveiling a coronavirus test that can tell if someone is infected in as little as 5 minutes, and is so small and portable, it can be used in almost any health-care setting.

The medical-device maker plans to supply 50,000 tests a day starting April 1, said John Frels, vice president of research and development at Abbott Diagnostics. The molecular test looks for fragments of the coronavirus genome, which can be detected in as little as five minutes when it’s present at high levels. A thorough search to definitively rule out an infection can take up to 13 minutes, he said.

[vememah]

47 minutes ago, čekmeže said:

Nije Kina cela bila u karantinu nego Wuhan i okolica

Neki su ovde prespavali šta se dešavalo u Kini pa evo još jednom.

Quote

Nearly half of China's population -- more than 780 million people -- are currently living under various forms of travel restrictions as authorities race to contain the spread of a deadly virus.

The novel coronavirus outbreak has killed 1,770 people and infected another 70,000 in mainland China. According to a CNN analysis, travel limitations of varying degrees are still being enforced in provinces and cities across the country, including Hubei, Liaoning, Beijing and Shanghai.

Restrictions include everything from self-quarantines to limits on who can come and go from neighborhoods.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/16/asia/coronavirus-covid-19-death-toll-update-intl-hnk/index.html

Quote

 

DISPATCH

How Virus Lockdown Orders Went From Xi Jinping to My Neighborhood Auntie

Virus quarantine measures have left hundreds of millions of people trapped indoors.

BY SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT
FEBRUARY 20, 2020, 4:50 PM

Since the outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic now known as COVID-19, China has split into hundreds of thousands of isolated cells. Across China, apartment complexes, villages, and whole cities closed themselves off to the world for weeks. At the height of the quarantine, I needed a ration ticket to go outside.

In a movie, there would have been loudspeakers all over town, blaring something like: “All citizens are confined to their homes by order of the district commissar.” In real-life China, new rules arrived like a rumor: Mrs. W, whose family I was visiting, got a text message from the company that runs her apartment building. These are the people you’d normally talk to about the plumbing or a squeaky elevator. Imagine your co-op board declaring martial law.

We did get the loudspeakers, eventually, but I’ll get to that later on.

In this city, quarantine came in two waves. The first lasted from Jan. 25 to Feb. 3. At that point, life was fraught but relatively normal. But from Feb. 5, true lockdown came and with it being confined to the house.

Who was really keeping us inside and why? I never really found out. I never really found out what the rules were, for that matter. But I can tell you what I saw myself and a bit of what I heard from friends.

The first wave

I was visiting friends in a city of about half a million in Zhejiang province for the Chinese New Year when state media first reported the scale of the outbreak on Jan. 25.

When we saw the outbreak reported as an emergency, we were relieved. It had been obvious for days that something very serious was happening in Wuhan, in the central province of Hubei, and that Lunar New Year travel was going to bring the problem to the rest of China. State media had played down the story, encouraging people to carry on with holiday plans and allowing the infection to spread.

I’d planned to return to my home in Beijing at the end of the week, but fearing infection on the train, I decided to stay longer.

The government sprang into action. Public health messages encouraged residents to take ordinary precautions: Stay indoors as much as possible, avoid crowded places, wear masks, and wash hands. We went outside for exercise and visited vegetable markets. On the whole, compliance seemed high—by the second or third day, almost everyone we saw wore a mask, and people gave each other a wide berth.

The same day, across China but especially in the provinces of Henan and Zhejiang near the epicenter, villages took quick action to stop people from gathering for traditional new year’s activities, including visiting relatives. They used strong language: I saw pictures of red propaganda banners with messages like: “To eat together is to seek death. To visit relatives is to harm them.”

On Jan. 30, we went out for a drive and saw our first checkpoints. On country roads, we also saw red banners with similar messages to those in the online images. Smaller checkpoints appeared at every village, housing compound, or cul-de-sac. These usually consisted of two people in yellow vests—often nondescript younger men but in other cases older people—and a folding table. At major intersections and at highway onramps and offramps, we had to pass larger checkpoints manned by four to five people wearing police uniforms or white lab coats. We were allowed to enter and walk around a larger town with a historic center and permitted to use the highway, both times after temperature checks, but were turned away from another village by a guard who appeared to think we were idiots to have gone for a pleasure drive.

We were mostly reassured by all this—maybe more so because it didn’t really affect us. Other places, especially villages, seemed to be panicking, closing themselves off to outsiders. Friends sent photos of bulldozers digging up the roads into villages. A few videos passed around online showed men with spears posted at village entrances as if they were trying to catch a werewolf.

Many places reportedly began searching for people who had escaped the quarantine and were hiding. Other banners we saw on social media carried messages like: “Those who have been to Hubei and do not report themselves are the enemy within.”

It was clear that there was no such thing as a national plan—just thousands upon thousands of local officials, businesses, and village heads scrambling to respond.

The tempo of response wasn’t set by the virus—if it were, Wuhan would have been quarantined before millions of people left for the Lunar New Year—but by messages from Beijing. As President Xi Jinping called for “boldness,” and then a few days later warned that those who did not show boldness would be punished and finally declared a “people’s war” on the virus, local governments moved from inaction to aggressive public health messaging to locking down most of China.

As often happens in China, they never got around to telling us what the rules were. We could see the roadblocks, and heard rumors of people being locked into, or out of, places, but were left guessing about what we were and weren’t allowed to do.

For the time being, we could still walk by the river. We noticed that the flower shops were closed, but they left funeral arrangements outside on an honesty box system. Other families were evidently more cautious: Sitting on our 16th-floor balcony one sunny afternoon, the air was suddenly cut by a young boy’s voice repeatedly howling: “I need to go out and play! I need to go out and play! I need to go out and play! I need to go out and play!”

The second wave

It was around Feb. 3 that the government asked everyone in the city to stop going outside. In an online notice, the city government pleaded for people to stay indoors, suggesting that it would be best to send only one person out every other day, for under two hours. It concluded: “Staying indoors is your contribution to the Party and the Country.” But the message did not say that these measures were mandatory, and our evening walks by the river didn’t seem like much of a risk—especially because in the whole area around the city there were only four cases of the virus. We went out again, and nobody said anything.

But we started to notice mysterious barricades going up around neighboring housing compounds. From our 16th-floor window, they didn’t appear to be intended to block people but cars. It made us wonder what was coming next.

In the small Hubei city of Shiyan, under full quarantine, a friend told me that on the same day, the government also called for people to stop going outside. A poem was broadcast over local public address systems: “If you have a grain of rice, you can still avoid crowds. If you have one sprig of spring onion, you don’t need to shop for vegetables.”

Things changed again on Feb. 5. We were just about to go out for a walk when Mrs. W told us we weren’t allowed. She showed us a WeChat message from the property management company, explaining that staying indoors was now mandatory and that there was a new ticket system.

We were shocked—we simply couldn’t believe that the property management company could force us to stay inside. Our first impulse was to go downstairs and see if anyone stopped us—but Mrs. W was dead set against trying, warning that we would use all the tickets for the next few days, that we would all get in trouble. In the end, we didn’t make it to the elevator. A little later, we heard the tinny sound of a roving police car with an announcement on loop, repeating the city government’s pleading message from Feb. 3.

There was nowhere we could confirm this officially in print. The city government’s website boasted that it was working hard to fulfill Xi’s call to obstruct and treat and, again, pleaded for us to stay inside. The car-borne loudspeakers started to mention criminal penalties for “breaking the rules”—but no one ever told us any rules besides the property management company.

In the end, it wasn’t Xi or the city or the coronavirus or even the property management company that kept us inside on Feb. 5—it was Mrs. W. The fear that traveled down the system eventually became her fear of trouble with the local authorities, and she made sure that her children and I did what we were asked.

Staying in

Were they really enforcing the ticket system?

For three days, we sat by the window in the living room, trying to figure out what was happening outside. This turned into keeping score with pedestrians. A middle-aged woman wandering by the river was a point for us. A cop was a point for the tickets. When we stopped seeing people, we started counting cars. Mrs. W went to buy vegetables once and told us things were very strict.

With the city quiet, nature started to move back in. By the third day, the apartment was full of birdsong, even on the 16th floor. One day, an eagle flew by outside.

Finally, on Feb. 8, we decided to try using a ticket. It was the Lantern Festival, the last day of the traditional Lunar New Year festival, and as it was getting dark, we took a new ticket and some garbage as an excuse. Two of us went downstairs—and we got out! Maybe it was the holiday, but we found a lone guard at the entrance to our building, who barely looked up as we passed.

We found the city empty and barricaded. The table checkpoints we’d seen before had been replaced with bigger ones with tents, most manned by at least three black-clad men. The tent at our building advertised local beer. We managed a tense walk by the river, trying to keep out of sight among the trees. But the only people we passed were a few couples walking and a middle-aged man doing exercise. A few plainclothes guards standing on the bluffs above seemed to notice but not to care.

But the next day, the system was back in full force. The refrigerator had broken overnight, and we wanted to take some food to Mrs. W’s office, so we set out again in her car. We found three guards at the entrance, who told Mrs. W she’d been going out too often and that three people was too many. “If upstairs finds out, they’ll blame us,” they said. She went out, and we went back upstairs.

A journey to Shanghai

Finally, on Feb. 10, I had to leave—unless I made it to Shanghai, my visa would expire. I wasn’t entirely sure that I would be allowed to enter Shanghai or that I would be allowed into the apartment I’d arranged to stay in. But I didn’t have a choice.

I needed Mrs. W to give me a ride to a train station out of town, and a friend in the police told her that we could go but she might not be able to return. He suggested that she carry the deed to her apartment as proof of residency. In the end, Mrs. W managed to get a permit from a local Communist Party office to make the trip, and it was uneventful. On the town’s main street, we even saw pedestrians, and we passed through only one checkpoint—with a line of trucks waiting to get into town—on the way to the station.

At the station, I was met by workers in hazmat suits and signs warning that anyone who left town would face a 14-day quarantine on their return home. The train was empty, and the app in which I had to apply to enter Shanghai rated me a Class B risk—the good kind. I arrived to an improvised channel and announcements: Class B to the right. Like most of the passengers, I walked through on the right. I saw only one person pulled out of the line, a woman in late middle with heavy bags and the posture of someone who has been carrying heavy things for hours. I assume she was rated Class A—high risk.

Shanghai is almost as quiet as Zhejiang was, but here I’ve been able to take walks. I’ve seen a few cafes and restaurants open. Going into a building here means guards, temperature checks, mask checks, and filling out registration forms. When I leave the apartment complex, the guards give me a paper pass to get back in.

Still, compared with what I heard from smaller cities, towns, and villages, this is an open city. I still need to get back to Beijing, but I’ve read that if I went there, it would mean another 14 days’ isolation.

Surveillance sets us free

Back in Zhejiang, my friends tell me that the total lockdown ended after nine days on Feb. 14. It was replaced by surveillance and limited lockdowns.

The city asked citizens to register with an online system created by the Zhejiang tech giant Alibaba, which rates infection risks as red, yellow, or green based on a short survey about recent travel, symptoms, and contact with infected people or people from Hubei. My friends got green—and for them, the isolation period is over. According to the news, yellow means seven days’ isolation and red two weeks.

The city is still under guard, and the new system is watching where you go: Entering an apartment compound or a market requires scanning a QR code generated by the app, keeping the yellows and reds inside and generating data about where the greens go. But tourist attractions have reopened, and shops are starting to reopen.

This system is supposed to go national next week, and I can’t wait to be surveilled. For weeks, I’ve been afraid to travel, fearing that any new city could turn me away or place me in isolation as a suspicious outsider. But I’ve already signed up for the Alibaba app, and it rated me green. If I can go back to Beijing next week and use my new national green rating, I might finally see my own house again.

 

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/20/coronavirus-china-lockdown-quarantine-xi-jinping/

[vememah]

Ispred Kine po smrtnosti u odnosu na populaciju trenutno je više desetina zemalja (za dobar deo zemalja Worldometers nije sračunao ovaj odnos, a svakako ih ima još koje su gore od Kine).

 

Country, Other	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Total Recovered	Active Cases	Serious, Critical	Tot Cases/ 1M pop	Deaths/ 1M pop	1st case
San Marino	224	+1	22	+1	6	196	16	6,602	648	Feb 26
Italy	92,472	+5,974	10,023	+889	12,384	70,065	3,856	1,529	166	Jan 29
Spain	73,232	+7,513	5,982	+844	12,285	54,965	4,165	1,566	128	Jan 30
Andorra	308	+41	3		1	304	10	3,986	39	Mar 01
Netherlands	9,762	+1,159	639	+93	3	9,120	914	570	37	Feb 26
France	37,575	+4,611	2,314	+319	5,700	29,561	4,273	576	35	Jan 23
Switzerland	14,076	+1,148	264	+33	1,530	12,282	301	1,626	31	Feb 24
Iran	35,408	+3,076	2,517	+139	11,679	21,212	3,206	422	30	Feb 18
Belgium	9,134	+1,850	353	+64	1,063	7,718	789	788	30	Feb 03
Luxembourg	1,831	+226	18	+3	40	1,773	25	2,925	29	Feb 28
UK	17,089	+2,546	1,019	+260	135	15,935	163	252	15	Jan 30
Cayman Islands	8		1			7		122	15	Mar 12
Denmark	2,201	+155	65	+13	1	2,135	109	380	11	Feb 26
Portugal	5,170	+902	100	+24	43	5,027	89	507	10	Mar 01
Sweden	3,447	+378	105		16	3,326	239	341	10	Jan 30
Austria	8,271	+574	68	+10	225	7,978	135	918	8	Feb 24
Ireland	2,415	+294	36	+14	5	2,374	59	489	7	Feb 28
USA	121,043	+16,917	2,020	+324	3,231	115,792	2,666	366	6	Jan 20
Iceland	963	+73	2		114	847	18	2,822	6	Feb 27
Channel Islands	97	+9	1			96		558	6	Mar 08
Curaçao	8		1		2	5		49	6	Mar 12
Germany	57,695	+6,824	433	+82	8,481	48,781	1,581	689	5	Jan 26
Guadeloupe	102	+29	2	+1	17	83	4	255	5	Mar 12
Norway	4,015	+244	23	+4	7	3,985	84	741	4	Feb 25
Slovenia	684	+52	9		10	665	25	329	4	Mar 03
Cyprus	179	+17	5		15	159	3	148	4	Mar 08
World	660,147	+63,781	30,641	+3,297	141,464	488,042	25,544	84.7	3.9	Jan 10
S. Korea	9,478	+146	144	+5	4,811	4,523	59	185	3	Jan 19
Ecuador	1,823	+196	48	+7	3	1,772	58	103	3	Feb 28
Greece	1,061	+95	32	+4	52	977	66	102	3	Feb 25
Panama	786		14		2	770	20	182	3	Mar 09
Dominican Republic	719	+138	28	+8	3	688		66	3	Feb 29
Lithuania	394	+36	7	+2	1	386	2	145	3	Feb 27
Albania	197	+11	10	+2	31	156	3	68	3	Mar 07
Martinique	93		1			92	12	248	3	Mar 04
China	81,394		3,295		74,971	3,128	886	57	2	Jan 10

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[cedo]

6 minutes ago, vememah said:

Neki su ovde prespavali šta se dešavalo u Kini pa evo još jednom.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/16/asia/coronavirus-covid-19-death-toll-update-intl-hnk/index.html

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/20/coronavirus-china-lockdown-quarantine-xi-jinping/

 

tim istima sam ja pre koliko vremena? rekao da sacekaju dve nedelje

[čekmeže]

4 minutes ago, vememah said:

Neki su ovde prespavali šta se dešavalo u Kini pa evo još jednom.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/16/asia/coronavirus-covid-19-death-toll-update-intl-hnk/index.html

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/20/coronavirus-china-lockdown-quarantine-xi-jinping/

Hvala kolega,

poenta je u tome da nije cela Kina bila u 24/7 karantinu, te ga je bilo moguće logistički odraditi za određenu teritoriju. Mi bi mogli tako da zatvorimo neki manji grad i spolja organizuješ dotur hrane vode lekova i ostalih minimalnih potrepština. Da zatvorimo celu državu i svima to obezbedimo mi jednostavno ne možemo.

[Ravanelli]

Bice zanimljivo da libce Svicarci traziti glave ministra zdravlja i jos nekih

[cedo]

2 hours ago, Tresko said:

Pa do 21 februara se ništa nije radilo. Jer, iako su neki stručnjaci već govorili u Lombardiji da bi trebalo preduzeti mere i otkazati neke manifestacije kao na primer Fashion week, nije se ništa uradilo. A političari su se uglavnom ponašali i govorili kao Nestorović, da je sve to smešno i da je virus smešan.

 

Onda je 21. februara bio prvi slučaj u mestu Codogno, i tada je celo mesto okruženo i blokirano i stavljeno u karantin. Ali, samo to, drugde se ništa nije preduzimalo jer je trebala da se odigra i utakmica, pa još druge priredbe i tako.

Onda se 24. februara desila i zaraza u mestu Vo Euganeo, pa su i to mesto izolovali, ne preduzimajući i dalje ništa na ostalom delu teritorije.

 

U medjuvremenu, počinje da se pojavljuje ogroman broj slučajeva u Lombardiji i Venetu širom regiona, pa Vlada 7. marta donosi dekret u kojem ograničava kretanje u ta dva regiona.

 

Tek 9. marta proširuje mere na celu zemlju, ali su mere onako labave, i dalje se igraju utakmice šampionata ali bez gledalaca.

 

I tek 13. marta se donosi dekret, u kojem se zabranjuje kretanje van kuće, i zatvaraju barovi, restorani. Može da se izlazi tek ko ide na posao, u samoposlugu, apoteku ili kod lekara. Gomila firmi ipak ostaje otvorena i gomila ljudi napolju, bez mera zaštite, bez maski, bez rukavica.

 

Onda se 20. marta pooštravaju mere i zatvaraju se sve firme osim onih esencijalnih.

 

24. marta se pooštravaju kazne za nepoštovanje mera i definitivno zatvaraju još firmi.

 

Danas, 30. marta maske ne mogu nigde da se nadju da se kupe, rukavice takodje. Mnogi zdravstveni radnici rade bez adekvatne zaštite. 51 lekar je mrtav od korona virusa. Porodični lekari odbijaju da idu u kućne posete, jer se plaše zaraze a nemaju zaštitna sredstva. Ljudi kojima neko umre u kući, naročito dole na jugu, moraju da čekaju po 3 dana da dodje neko da preuzme pokojnika.

 

Mere traju do 3. aprila, ali se već priča da će biti produžene još dve nedelje posle 3. aprila

 

Sve u svemu, izgubljeno je negde oko 3 nedelje za primenu mera ostajanja u kući, ako su već hteli to da rade.

 

nekako mi u svom ovom objasnjavanju promace treskov post

 

sad mozemo i da racunamo kada ce u italiji poceti bivati znatno bolje u smislu da ce imati manje registrovanih ... smrtni sluvajevi jos malo kasnije dok prodise zdravstveni sistem

~ 2 nedelje posle 20. marta

 

znaci, moraju se zatvarati sve firme osim esencijalnih ... mora se postovati ogranicenje kretanja

sad sto sam spomenuo minimalac za sve ... jbg ... mislim da je tako posteno jer smo svi u istom sranju

 

Edited March 28, 2020 by cedo

[vememah]

1 hour ago, Milosh76 said:

E oni ce, nazalost, preteci i ITaliju i Ameriku i Spaniju po broju umrlih, vrlo brzo.

Ameriku malo teže tako brzo.

 

Kretanje broja umrlih:

 

Kretanje registrovanih slučajeva:

 

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

[Gandalf]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/pandemic-shutdowns-actually-helped-economic-growth-in-1918-flu

Coronavirus containment measures that force economies to slow down or halt may ultimately be better for economic growth than laxer efforts, according to Federal Reserve researchers who analyzed the 1918 influenza pandemic in the U.S.

The research was presented in a paper released in preliminary form Thursday, as the U.S. economy grinds to a halt to stop the aggressive spread of the novel coronavirus. Authors include the Federal Reserve Board’s Sergio Correia, the New York Fed’s Stephan Luck, and Emil Verner of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Edited March 28, 2020 by Gandalf