Coronavirus Covid-19 - opšta tema

[Milosh76]

Dva meseca full karantin? Nema trika da se to sprovede, moraju da nadju neki filter, kao sto je setnja subotom pola sata oko zgrade i blize okoline. Cak i zatvorenici imaju setnju po krugu 1h

[Tsai]

1 minute ago, Redoran said:

 

 

Jbg mislim da nije slučajno to što su samo čajnezi uspešno sproveli takvu meru. "Ja, pa ja" je na zapadnoj hemisferi očigledno previše ukorenjeno da bi sebi dopustilo predah od par meseci. Mehanizmi prinude postoje ali je sva prilika da bi umesto poštovanja sveopšteg karantina izazvali momentalnu apokalipsu po Mad Max modelu. Zato gledamo ovu "hoće kaki - neće kaki" strategiju, ponavljanje istovetnih grešaka i gubljenje dragocenog vremena na istovetan način od jednog žarišta do drugog. Biće zlo i naopako.

 

Juzna Koreja i Japan su isto svetli primeri

[InvisibleLight]

1 minute ago, Tsai said:

 

Juzna Koreja i Japan su isto svetli primeri

 

sabornost?

[cedo]

nisam ja rekao da moras da sedis u x kvadrata dva meseca ... verovatno ima nacina da ljudi ne moraju da sede u stanu dva meseca neprekidno, treba se organizovati na lokalu

drzava je ta koja treba to da odluci i sprovede

firma koja ne moze dva meseca da isplati minimalac ne treba da postoji

drzava koja ne moze dva meseca da pokrije druge rashode zaposlenom ne treba da postoji

ljudi koji ne mogu, zarad opsteg dobra da budu disciplinovani ... pa jbg, necu da kazem da ne treba da postoje, ima nas svakakvih, ali ima i za to leka

 

edit: ovo odgovor na @Milosh76

Edited March 28, 2020 by cedo

[אַף אֶחָד]

3 hours ago, Lancia said:

Teras me da citam sranje jos jednom --->La edición que ha salido en pleno estado de alarma y con más de 4.000 expedientes de regulación temporal de empleo, recoge el incremento del 2% incluido en la Ley de Presupuestos de la Comunidad Autónoma de Canarias que entró en vigor el 1 de enero de este año

Znaci retroaktivno, a ostatak teksta jeste skandalozan, pa da je povecanje i 0,00001% a u isto vreme iskljuceno zdravstvo i policija.

 

Pa da, odluka je usvojena krajem januara, i vazi od pocetka kalendarske godine, dakle - retroaktivno. Ocigledno je lozacki plasirana.

 

Funcionarios ukljucuju sve i svasta sto je polozilo "oposiciones" od policije i doktora, raznih socijalnih sluzbi, to administracije i politicara.

 

Sto su kanarske vlasti to tek sad sprovele me uopste ne cudi. Uvek je tako - imas odluku iz Madrida i onda ide kaskadno na dole sa zakasnjenjem. Ovo je vrv odradjeno po nekom automatizmu.

 

U svakom slucaju, samo povecanje od 2% je najmanji problem, mnogo manji od neefikasnog i preglomaznog jezgra administracije.

[JozoMujica]

8 minutes ago, cedo said:

firma koja ne moze dva meseca da isplati minimalac ne treba da postoji

drzava koja ne moze dva meseca da pokrije druge rashode zaposlenom ne treba da postoji

Sve stoji. Ali sta kada dodjemo u tu situaciju? Firma ce mozda i prestati da postoji, ali sta drzava? Prestace da postoji? Cemu ovo frljanje utopistickim frazama?

Problemi ocigledno postoje zbog situacije i gomila ljudi je ni kriva ni duzna pogodjena tim problemom, tu pre svega mislim na zaposlene i njihove porodice u firmama koje ne bi trebalo da postoje. Ko ih jebe, sto nisu birali poslodavca? Sta je za te ljude opste dobro?

Edited March 28, 2020 by JozoMujica

[mire]

to neka kaže bilo kojoj maloj uslužnoj firmi

 

uh

Edited March 28, 2020 by rođeni

[אַף אֶחָד]

12 minutes ago, Milosh76 said:

Dva meseca full karantin? Nema trika da se to sprovede, moraju da nadju neki filter, kao sto je setnja subotom pola sata oko zgrade i blize okoline. Cak i zatvorenici imaju setnju po krugu 1h

 

Ovo je jebeno razmazeno. Mislim, odakle ti ideja da svoju situaciju poredis sa zatvorom? Sedis kod kuce, igras igrice, radis posao, zabavljas decu, krkas, drkas, spavas, i ne mzoes da izdrzis da ne izadjes iz kuce!?!

[Garnirung]

Opinion tekst onog tipa epidemiologa, Osterholma što je gostovao kod Rogana, pre nedelju-dve

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/opinion/coronavirus-trump-testing-shortages.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

 

Ubacio ga i u spojler, ako nekom ne bude hteo da otvori zbog paywalla

 

Spoiler

 

 

It’s Too Late to Avoid Disaster, but There Are Still Things We Can Do

Our leaders need to speak some hard truths and then develop a strategy to prevent the worst.

By Michael T. Osterholm and Mark Olshaker

Dr. Osterholm is an infectious-disease expert. Mr. Olshaker is a writer and documentary filmmaker.

• March 27, 2020
• • 
     

 

 

Of all the resources lacking in the Covid-19 pandemic, the one most desperately needed in the United States is a unified national strategy, as well as the confident, coherent and consistent leadership to see it carried out. The country cannot go from one mixed-message news briefing to the next, and from tweet to tweet, to define policy priorities. It needs a science-based plan that looks to the future rather than merely reacting to latest turn in the crisis.

Let’s get one thing straight: From an epidemiological perspective, the current debate, which pits human life against long-term economics, presents a false choice. Just as a return to even a new normal is unthinkable for the foreseeable future — and well past Easter, Mr. Trump — a complete shutdown and shelter-in-place strategy cannot last for months. There are just too many essential workers in our intertwined lives beyond the health care field — sanitation workers; grocery clerks, and food handlers, preparers and deliverers; elevator mechanics; postal workers — who must be out and about if society is to continue to function.

A middle-ground approach is the only realistic one — and defining what that looks like means doing our best to keep all such workers safe. It also means leadership. Above all, it means being realistic about what is possible and what is not, and communicating that clearly to the American public.

When leaders tell the truth about even near-desperate situations, when they lay out a clear and understandable vision, the public might remain frightened, but it will act rationally and actively participate in the preservation of its safety and security.

 

 

Our leaders need to begin by stating a number of hard truths about our situation. The first is that no matter what we do at this stage, numerous hospitals in the United States will be overrun. Many people, including health care workers, will get sick and some will die. And the economy will tank. It’s too late to change any of this now.

 

In three to four weeks, there will be a major shortage of chemical reagents for coronavirus testing, the result of limited production capacity, compounded by the collapse of global supply chains when the epidemic closed down manufacturing in China for weeks.

 

 

The second hard truth is that at this stage, any public health response that counts on widespread testing in the United States is doomed to fail. No one planned on the whole world experiencing a health conflagration of this magnitude at once, with the need to test many millions of people at the same time. Political leaders and talking heads should stop proffering the widespread-testing option; it simply won’t be available.

Much better, instead, to immediately gear up for epidemic intelligence, based on techniques used for many decades. Among those is so-called illness surveillance, in which epidemiologists survey a sample of doctors’ offices in a given geographic region each day to learn how many patients sought care for illnesses with symptoms of fever, cough and muscle aches. The increasing or decreasing occurrence of patients with these symptoms provides a reliable estimate of influenza activity during the winter months — or now, the incidence of Covid-19.

A third hard truth is that shortages of personal protective equipment — particularly N-95 masks — for health care workers will only get worse in the United States as global need continues to rise precipitously. There is no point holding out the false hope that the Defense Production Act will save the residents of the United States. Not enough manufacturing activities can be converted to produce masks in a matter of weeks. You can’t turn engine-making machinery into an N-95 respirator assembly line just because you want to.

 

For example, even as 3M was producing at 100 percent of its capacity (35 million N-95 masks a month), a single hospital in New York City used up more than two million masks in February, before the surge in Covid-19 cases there. And new production won’t happen for many months.

If you can’t make nearly enough masks to meet the need, then you must conserve the masks you can make. Unfortunately, some hospitals in the United States are not employing science-based methods for conserving these invaluable lifesaving masks.

Making ventilators — machines that breathe for patients who cannot effectively do so on their own — poses an even more formidable challenge. For example, a Medtronic ventilator has about 1,500 parts, supplied by 14 separate countries. More machines might, at best, be manufactured by the hundreds a month — but not by the thousands, as is needed right now.

It is precisely in the face of such hard truths that a national strategy and leadership are crucial. Otherwise, hospitals, governors and politicians will only vie against one another in the reasonable service of their own constituencies.

“Respirators, ventilators, all of the equipment — try getting it yourselves,” Mr. Trump said on a recent conference call with governors. “We will be backing you, but try getting it yourselves. Point of sales, much better, much more direct if you can get it yourself.”

This is exactly the wrong message. The White House must take charge, keeping track of national inventory, purchasing the precious resources and distributing them where they are most needed at the moment. As Andrew Cuomo, the governor of New York, has suggested, ventilators could then be redistributed as outbreak hot spots shift around the country.

More than anything, what the United States needs right now is for the president to undertake an intellectual Manhattan Project: gather the best minds in public health, medicine, medical ethics, catastrophe preparedness and response; political leadership; and private-sector manufacturing and the pharmaceutical industry.

It took nearly three years to develop the atomic bomb. The effort against Covid-19 will need to be bear fruit within days — and come up with a comprehensive but realistic blueprint for getting America through the next 12 to 18 months, or however long it takes for a vaccine to become widely available or herd immunity to take hold in the population. Once a plan has been devised, the president will have to dispense with any happy talk and instead actually convey what the experts are telling him. He will have to define the new normal for a frightened nation that is looking for facts, direction and a common purpose.

Michael T. Osterholm is director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. Mark Olshaker is a writer and documentary filmmaker. They are the authors of “Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Killer Germs.”

 

[cedo]

1 minute ago, JozoMujica said:

Sve stoji. Ali sta kada dodjemo u tu situaciju? Firma ce mozda i prestati da postoji, ali sta drzava? Prestace da postoji? Cemu ovo frljanje utopistickim frazama?

Problemi ocigledno postoje zbog situacije i gomila ljudi je ni kriva ni duzna pogodjena tim problemom, tu pre svega mislim na zaposlene i njihove porodice u firmama koje ne bi trebalo da postoje. Ko ih jebe, sto nisu birali poslodavca? Sta je za te ljude opste dobro?

 

Just now, rođeni said:

to neka kaže bilo kojoj maloj uslužnoj firmi

 

uh

 

prilicno sam siguran da ce se sve to desiti sa ocu-kaki, necu-kaki strategijom

dva meseca solidarnosti nije mnogo

 

[mire]

znaš li šta si napisao?

 

kakva strategija, kakva sad solidarnost?

[pasha]

1 hour ago, Ravanelli said:

 

gde si predlagao? poslao sms vučiću? izneo na vladu?

 

Ja napisem a vec neko prenese gde treba. To su dobre ideje, korisne za za sve a narocito najugrozenije.

U Srbiji puno ljudi zivi od prvog do prvog, nema ustedjevine.

[Desmond Bojčinski]

38 minutes ago, Shaq said:

 

-realno stanje je da se teski slucajevi koji zavrse na respiratoru u 54% slucajeva zavrsavaju smrtnim ishodom, dok teski slucejevi sa intezivnom negom se zavrsavaju sa smrtnoscu od 46%

Nije ovo baš najjasnije. Indikacija za intubaciju je nemogućnost samostalnog disanja.

Čovek na respiratoru sa cevkom u grlu zahteva intenzivnu negu. Da nema toga smrtnost bi bila 100 a ne 54%.

 

Težak slučaj bez respiratora može svašta da bude i od svačega da umre a da se ne gura cevka, od terminalne faze nekog tumora do proste činjenice da respiratora nema.

[JozoMujica]

9 minutes ago, chandra said:

 

Ovo je jebeno razmazeno. Mislim, odakle ti ideja da svoju situaciju poredis sa zatvorom? Sedis kod kuce, igras igrice, radis posao, zabavljas decu, krkas, drkas, spavas, i ne mzoes da izdrzis da ne izadjes iz kuce!?!

O, da... dok jednorozi promiču proplankom ispred zamka.

 

[Milosh76]

13 minutes ago, chandra said:

 

Ovo je jebeno razmazeno. Mislim, odakle ti ideja da svoju situaciju poredis sa zatvorom? Sedis kod kuce, igras igrice, radis posao, zabavljas decu, krkas, drkas, spavas, i ne mzoes da izdrzis da ne izadjes iz kuce!?!

 

Ljudi su po definiciji razmazeni i nedisciplinovani.

Licno ne izlazim iz kuce, osim na svaka 2 ili 3 dana do Merkatora ili Maksija i jednom sam otisao u pekaru u toku nedelje. Vikendom prosetam pola sata oko zgrade i 2 puta se odvezem kolima na drug kraj grada u prazan stan. Prilicno sam disciplinovan sto se tice distanciranja i vodjenja racuna koliko se "mesam" sa drugima.

Osim zene koja je insulinski dijabeticar, nemam bukvalno drugih kontakata duzih od 5 minuta.  Jednom sam otisao na posao u poslednje 2 nedelje na 3h jer sam morao nesto "hitno" da odradim, sto nije moglo od kuce preko racunara. Cak ni tada nije bilo ljudi oko mene

Ne poredim svoju situaciju, nego nasu zajednicku situaciju, ljudi pucaju, treba im filter. Do danas je to bila setnja psa, sutra ce opet izmileti do 15h jer je napolju sunce i lepo vreme.

Podrzavam da se izadje, ali ne i da se stvaraju grupe i tako potencijalno siri zaraza.