Coronavirus Covid-19 - opšta tema

[Sandradjer]

Holandjani jos ne daju trecu dozu koliko ja znam. Malo su kasnili u startu sa vakcinacijom ali su dobro vakcinisani. Evo sad lockdown

[vememah]

 

 

 

 

[vememah]

 

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Tom Moultrie, 7h, 12 tweets, 4 min read

A series of mini-thoughts for a Sunday afternoon. South Africa vs. Rest of the World - the Omicron Edition.
1) We are pretty confident that Gauteng, the province at the South African Omicron epicentre is past its peak in terms of proportion of tests returning positive. 

2) Despite massive number of cases (and incredibly high PTP: in the week to 11Dec, in Gauteng an ALL-TIME high of 38.7% - and an intra-week daily high of 41% when looking at PCR tests only), we have seen relatively few hospitalisations and deaths. 

3) It really *does seem* as if South Africa, my country, will escape relatively unscathed in this wave.
None of that is particularly new. But other things gnaw at me. 

4) Excess natural deaths as of 11 Dec were 278 000 as per our weekly @MRCza report.
samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
We have also been of the view that between 85 and 95% of these ED, over the entire course of the epidemic, are related to Covid (genus.springeropen.com/articles/10.11…)

Rapid mortality surveillance using a national population register to monitor excess deaths during SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in South Africa - GenusThis paper describes how an up-to-date national population register recording deaths by age and sex, whether deaths were due to natural or unnatural causes, and the offices at which the deaths were re…https://genus.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s41118-021-00134-6

5) So that means, perhaps 250 000 Covid deaths since Autumn 2020. (cf: the official number of barely 90 000). Expressed per million, that is an 'unofficial Covid deaths' of around 4 200. 

6) From Worldometer (yes, I *know* - I am pulling approximates here), the UK is around 2 150 -- roughly HALF the unofficial SA number 

7) I am struck by this comparison from OWID. Their SA data are ours (but all-cause not natural-only).
And we can see towards of the beta wave, excess deaths in the two countries were of a kind.

8) But the UK had begun to vaccinate extensively by then. Our programme only got going in July, by which time Delta was on us. 

9) SO. WHAT IF ... South Africa's 'light escape' (in the context of a QUARTER OF A MILLION excess natural deaths) is _in no small measure because_ we 'bought' that present at horrendous cost during past waves. 

10) No, I do not have the answers. Yes, I am deeply grateful by what we are seeing here. But, I am appalled by how the South African Experience ™ is being used to weaponise against unfolding events in other countries ("don't intervene, it's a nothingburger" says my bete noire) 

11) Until we have a better sense of the issues raised here (esp in #9), premature celebration is uncalled for outside of SA; and in SA, perhaps we should spare a thought for the families of 250 000 of our fellow citizens whose loved ones will not be joining them for Christmas. 

11) Careful data analysis, and a deep appreciation of local knowledge and specificities, coupled with global action (as argued with @GYamey and @BillHanage last week: time.com/6128506/omicro…) may yet get us through this.

Let's Not Be Fatalistic About Omicron. We Know How to Fight ItThe Omicron variant is starting to hit the world but have the tools to fight it—only if we heed the lessons of the last two years

https://time.com/6128506/omicron-covid-19-how-to-fight/

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1472626326595162114.html

Edited December 19, 2021 by vememah

[vememah]

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Only 1.7% of identified Covid-19 cases were admitted to hospital in the second week of infections in the fourth [omicron] wave, compared with 19% in the same week of the third delta-driven wave, South African Health Minister Joe Phaahla said at a press conference. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-17/s-africa-says-hospitalizations-in-omicron-wave-much-lower

[vememah]

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Omicron is probably in the process of becoming the majority in Île-de-France [Paris region] (using manually de-smoothed data, as SpF does not publish it)

 

In France, Omicron today represents between 5% and 7% of cases (in reality surely a little more, because the data smoothed over a week are ~ three days behind reality).

Omicron's rise offsets Delta's drop.

 

The region most concerned is Île-de-France [Paris region], with a high number of cases possibly being Omicron (up to 19.3 %) . The drop in Delta is compensated for.

 

In Île-de-France, this increase linked to Omicron is carried by 20-39 year olds: the incidence rate went from 650 to 850 in just three days

 

This is a phenomenon that is also observed in Denmark, London and South Africa.

Paris is the most affected department: up to 27% of cases could correspond to Omicron, up sharply over three days.

 

 

Izvor je ovaj niz:
https://twitter.com/GuillaumeRozier/status/1472676543063375875 (prevod Google)

Edited December 19, 2021 by vememah

[Lancia]

1235 novoobolelih na Kanarima, juce 1688. Slaba je informisanost, jer se ne zna koliki je procenat vakcinisanih, narocito sto se Omicron jos nije pojavio ovde.

[אַף אֶחָד]

12 minutes ago, Lancia said:

1235 novoobolelih na Kanarima, juce 1688. Slaba je informisanost, jer se ne zna koliki je procenat vakcinisanih, narocito sto se Omicron jos nije pojavio ovde.

 

%: https://cvcanarias.com/vacuna

 

omicron je registrovan negde pocetkom prosle nedelje i ovi brojevi su govore verovatno da je omikron u pitanju. neverovatno kojom brzinom se sada siri.

 

vakcinanacija dece 5-11 za sada ide odlicno. za prva tri dana vakcinisano je 5+%

 

u petak sam radio pcr u privatnoj klinici. zena koja mi je uzimala bris je bukvalno imala nervni slom uzivo. za 4-5 min koliko sam proveo unutra nije prestala da place iza onog vizira i bukvalno se tresla ponavljajuci 'no puedo mas no puedo mas'. jeziva slika, najezim se kad se setim.

[Lancia]

3 minutes ago, chandra said:

 

%: https://cvcanarias.com/vacuna

 

omicron je registrovan negde pocetkom prosle nedelje i ovi brojevi su govore verovatno da je omikron u pitanju. neverovatno kojom brzinom se sada siri.

 

vakcinanacija dece 5-11 za sada ide odlicno. za prva tri dana vakcinisano je 5+%

 

u petak sam radio pcr u privatnoj klinici. zena koja mi je uzimala bris je bukvalno imala nervni slom uzivo. za 4-5 min koliko sam proveo unutra nije prestala da place iza onog vizira i bukvalno se tresla ponavljajuci 'no puedo mas no puedo mas'. jeziva slika, najezim se kad se setim.

Mislio sam na % novoobolelih a vakcinisanih. Inace, ne znam kako je kod tebe, ja sizim od sve veceg broja ljudi koji masku nosi redovno na podbradku.

[אַף אֶחָד]

8 minutes ago, Lancia said:

Mislio sam na % novoobolelih a vakcinisanih. Inace, ne znam kako je kod tebe, ja sizim od sve veceg broja ljudi koji masku nosi redovno na podbradku.

 

I ovde isto. Turisti je jednostavno ne nose uopste. A lokalci sve manje, posebno klinci, redovno ispod nosa. Inace sve i dalje radi i prilicne su guzve.

 

% novoobolelih a vakcinisanih - bio je neki podatak da su vakcinisani 30% od primljenih u bolnicu ako sam dobro cuo

 

inace moj se podmladak vakcinisao prvog dana. deci daju 1/3 dozu, revax za 8 nedelja. pocetkom prosle nedelje bilo je 70 odeljenja u karantinu, verujem da je broj sada i 3x veci.

[אַף אֶחָד]

jesi ti primio trecu? ovde su nesto stidljivo najavili trecu za 40+, drugar koji je 50+ je imao zakazano prosle nedelje i nije dobio - navodno vakcine preusmerene na decu, a mi kad dodjemo na red, mozda u feb.

[vememah]

 

[Čutura]

 

 

Nurse John™ i profesor Niels Hoiby o vaznosti aspiriranja prilikom vakcinisanja!

[vememah]

Britanci još nisu ubeđeni u to da je omikron osetno blaži - iz zapisnika sa sastanka savetodavnog tela britanske vlade SAGE od 16.12.

 

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5. It is still too early to reliably assess the severity of disease caused by Omicron compared to previous variants. Although a preliminary analysis from South Africa suggests that this wave may be less severe than previous waves, a comparison of SGTF (mainly Omicron) and SGTP (non-Omicron) cases within this wave suggests less difference between variants. Some severity estimates should start to become available in about a week as hospital data accumulate. Even if there were to be a modest reduction in severity compared to Delta, very high numbers of infections would still lead to significant pressure on hospitals.

6. As a result of the very high number of current infections, hospitalisations in UK will reach high levels in about 2 weeks even if transmission is reduced soon, because there are lags between infections, symptoms appearing, and hospitalisation (high confidence). There are likely to be between 1,000 and 2,000 hospital admissions per day in England by the end of the year. Many of these will be people who are already infected now or who become infected in the next few days. The acceleration of the booster vaccination programme will not affect transmission and severe and mild disease in time to mitigate these hospitalisations for the rest of 2021 (high confidence).

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-99-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-16-december-2021/sage-99-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-16-december-2021

Šta je SAGE:

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The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) provides scientific and technical advice to support government decision makers during emergencies.

https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/scientific-advisory-group-for-emergencies/about

Edited December 20, 2021 by vememah

[vememah]

 

[vememah]

Broj potvrđenih omikron slučajeva u svetu mimo 4 zvanično najpogođenije zemlje po apsolutnom broju (Britanija, Danska, Norveška i JAR*) za nedelju dana uvećao se 4,7 puta, što odgovara dupliranju za 3,1 dan.

 

*njihove brojeve sam uklonio jer su pre nedelju dana bili osetno veći od svih ostalih da bi bilo vidljivije šta se drugde dešava

 

20.12.
6883
https://newsnodes.com/omicron_tracker

 

13.12.
1468
https://web.archive.org/web/20211213151937/https://newsnodes.com/omicron_tracker

 

Edited December 20, 2021 by vememah