Coronavirus Covid-19 - opšta tema

[vememah]

Nova zvanična britanska procena omikrona: ima prednost u širenju nad deltom sigurno zbog rezaražavanja tj. izbegavanja imuniteta stečenog vakcinisanjem ili preležavanjem delte i ranijih sojeva, ali možda i sam po sebi (tj. među nezaraženima), kažu da je i u tom pogledu zarazan najmanje kao delta. Još nisu napravili procenu je li blaži ili ne, kažu da nemaju dovoljno podataka.

 

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1040064/9_December-2021-risk-assessment-for-SARS_Omicron_VOC-21NOV-01_B.1.1.529.pdf

 

Edited December 11, 2021 by vememah

[vememah]

Britanski ministar: situacija je vrlo zabrinjavajuća, dobili smo vrlo neprijatne informacije tako da razmatramo promenu ograničenja. Imamo najveći dnevni broj infekcija još od 9. januara, omikron se duplira se za 2-3 dana u Engleskoj, a možda i brže u Škotskoj, i čini preko 30% slučajeva u Londonu iako je njegovo prisustvo prvi put detektovano pre samo dve nedelje.

 

 

Edited December 11, 2021 by vememah

[vememah]

 

[vememah]

Situacija u Engleskoj po pitanju potpuno nezaštićenih među onima starijim od 15 godina uopšte ne izgleda loše.

 

 

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1469427353117986829

Edited December 11, 2021 by vememah

[vememah]

Procena iz tehničkog izveštaja o omikronu objavljenog juče je da bi u Britaniji već na katolički Božić imali milion slučaja dnevno ako ništa ne preduzmu i nastavi se dupliranje za 2,5 dana.

 

 

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1040076/Technical_Briefing_31.pdf (strana 28)

[vememah]

Ispravka:

 

1 hour ago, vememah said:

Nova zvanična britanska procena omikrona: ima prednost u širenju nad deltom sigurno zbog rezaražavanja tj. izbegavanja imuniteta stečenog vakcinisanjem ili preležavanjem delte i ranijih sojeva, ali možda i sam po sebi (tj. među nezaraženima potpuno nezaštićenima)

[vememah]

 

https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD/status/1469456805491138560

[vememah]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[vememah]

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COVID-19: Omicron could cause between 25,000 and 75,000 deaths in England without tougher restrictions - experts

The Omicron variant could cause between 25,000 to 75,000 deaths in England over the next five months if no additional measures are taken beyond Plan B, according to experts.

New modelling from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) used experimental data to look at how Omicron may transmit as the country heads into 2022.

It suggests that Omicron could potentially cause more cases and hospitalisations in England than during the wave in January 2021, if additional control measures are not taken.

Under the best-case scenario, the variant could lead to a peak of more than 2,000 daily hospital admissions, with 175,000 hospitalisations and 24,700 deaths between 1 December 2021 and 30 April 2022, the projection suggests.

The optimistic scenario is one where Omicron's immunity escape is low and boosters prove highly effective.

Measures such as restrictions on indoor hospitality, closure of some entertainment venues, and limits on gathering sizes from early next year would be sufficient to substantially control this wave, reducing hospitalisations by 53,000 and deaths by 7,600, the experts say.

Under the worst-case scenario (high immune escape and lower effectiveness of boosters), if no additional control measures are taken, there could be 492,000 hospitalisations and 74,800 deaths.

In this scenario, the experts estimate that stronger measures may be required to keep the number of hospital admissions below the January 2021 peak.

Dr Rosanna Barnard, who co-led the research, said that while there is still a lot of uncertainty over Omicron, "these early projections help guide our understanding about potential futures in a rapidly evolving situation".

"In our most optimistic scenario, the impact of Omicron in the early part of 2022 would be reduced with mild control measures such as working from home," she said.

"However, our most pessimistic scenario suggests that we may have to endure more stringent restrictions to ensure the NHS is not overwhelmed.

"Mask-wearing, social distancing and booster jabs are vital, but may not be enough.

"Nobody wants to endure another lockdown, but last-resort measures may be required to protect health services if Omicron has a significant level of immune escape or otherwise increased transmissibility compared to Delta.

"It is crucial for decision-makers to consider the wider societal impact of these measures, not just the epidemiology."

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-could-cause-between-25-000-and-75-000-deaths-in-england-without-tougher-restrictions-experts-12492584

Edited December 11, 2021 by vememah

[vememah]

18 (1,4%) hospitalizovanih među dosad zaraženima omikronom u Danskoj. Nevakcinisanih među zaraženima je 177, tj. 13,8%.

 

 

https://files.ssi.dk/covid19/omikron/statusrapport/rapport-omikronvarianten-10122021-ek56-version2

 

[vememah]

Prvi Izraelac koji se potvrđeno zarazio omikronom, lekar koji ga je pokupio na simpozijumu u Londonu, vratio se na posao, ali je i dalje malaksao. Trostruko je vakcinisan Fajzerom i preležao je kod kuće.

 

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Ten days after Dr. Elad Maor was diagnosed as the country’s first Omicron variant COVID-19 patient, the cardiologist returned to work at Sheba Medical Center.

“I am still weak,” he told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday from one of the hospital’s bustling cafeterias on his first day back.
Maor tested positive for COVID-19 on November 28 and was diagnosed as having the variant a few days later. He was fully vaccinated with three shots of the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine. (...)
The variant hit Maor harder than he expected, causing a fever for 48 hours and extreme fatigue for 72 hours. He said he had muscle aches, too. And even now, Maor said he is not feeling back to himself.

https://www.jpost.com/health-and-wellness/coronavirus/israels-first-omicron-covid-case-i-am-still-weak-688107

[vememah]

1 hour ago, vememah said:

18 (1,4%) hospitalizovanih među dosad zaraženima omikronom u Danskoj.

 

Danci testiraju sve u 16, evo kako izgleda dnevni prosek broja testova na 1000 stanovnika usrednjen na nedeljnom nivou u Danskoj, Britaniji, Nemačkoj i Srbiji:

 

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Tests&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=DNK~GBR~DEU~SRB

[vememah]

 

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Shabir Madhi, 19h, 8 tweets, 2 min read

Reflecting on SA experience with Omricon thus far in Gauteng - the epicentre in SA. 1. Rate of increase per capita much quicker than any of previous three waves. Strongly suggestive of more transmissible than even delta. 2. Positivity rate 30-40% in some settings. 

3. Three weeks into resurgence, many adults and children testing SARS-CoV-2 pos in hospital , but COVID hospitalisation remains low relative to community case rate. High % (30%) women in labour coincidentally testing positive. Also,most children testing pos are coincidental Ix. 

4. Death rate very low compared to period of same case rate in previous waves. Trend over next week will be informative, but optimistic unlikely to surge. 5. Study in SA and elsewhere confirm omicron 5 fold more antibody evasive than beta., hence many breakthrough and re-Ix. 

6. Attenuation of clinical course of illness. Likely explanation is the 73% of population in Gauteng with previous infection and/or vaccine induced underpinning T cell immunity, since omicron largely antibody evasive. Hospitalisation for severe Covid mainly in unvacccinated 

7. Unfortunate still delay rollout of 3rd Pfizer dose to older than 60yrs and immuncompromised. Little value doing so after the wave has already peaked probably in next 2 weeks. Likewise no 2nd dose for ALL single dose JJ recipients inexcusable with 15 million vaccines in depot. 

8. Health facilities under pressure due to infections in staff, needing to go into isolation for 10’days- despite the isolation (and quarantine) recommendations being outdated and probably obsolete in context of underpinning immunity and widespread infection. 

9. IF downturn in infection rate and no massive surge in hospitalisation and death in the next 2-3 weeks, may well mark turning point in pandemic, particularly since SA not boosting to prevent infection and mild illness like HIC are doing (at cost exacerbating vaccine inequity) 

10. Gvt response correctly remains measured by not increasing restrictions and not panicking with increase in cases, but seem to rather focussing on COVID ( excluding coincidental Ix) hospitalisation and health facility capacity. 11. Lastly, vaccine coverage still lagging. 

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1469391700925857797.html

Edited December 11, 2021 by vememah

[vememah]

U Britaniji se zvanično detektovani slučajevi omikrona trenutno dupliraju za 1,7 dana, a ne za 2-3 kako tvrde političari.

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/ProfColinDavis/status/1469690929678270464

[vememah]

Definitivno prolazi talas u Gautengu, danas za 27% manje novih slučajeva nego prošle subote.

 

 

https://twitter.com/nicd_sa/status/1469726363783512068
https://twitter.com/nicd_sa/status/1467176901844377602

Edited December 11, 2021 by vememah