Coronavirus Covid-19 - opšta tema

[Aleksija]

 

[vememah]

35 minutes ago, Have_Fun said:

Jesmo li ga najebali, ili je ovo spas koji smo cekali - oslabljeni virus kovida koji ce postati dominantan i istisnuti one opasnije?

 

Pa upravo to je pitanje za milion dolara na koje niko još nema pouzdan odgovor, pogotovu što se ne može znati na kojoj visini će se talas zaustaviti i hoće li bukvalna sveprisutnost virusa uticati na povećanje smrtnosti zbog veće izloženosti.

 

Zasad deluje da je taj superoptimistički scenario bliži stvarnosti, ali on u nekim zemljama može da se izjalovi zato što su u JAR skoro svi već preležali i ima vrlo malo starog stanovništva. U zemljama sa nepreležalim i nedovoljno vakcinisanim starim stanovništvom ovakva zaraznost može doneti apsolutnu katastrofu ako se smrtnost baš drastično ne smanji.

Edited December 7, 2021 by vememah

[Aleksija]

verovatno je ovo laicko misljenje glupo, ali ne znam kako soj za koji trenutno procenjuju r0 na 3-3.6 i koji probija vakcine uveliko, moze biti dobra vest. 

uzmimo da je cak nista opasniji od gripa - grip ima r0 izmedju 1 i 2, kaze google.

na ovako oslabljene zdravstvene sisteme, plus kod nas potpuno nejebavanje drzave i gradjana, stvarno ne znam kako bi to moglo na dobro.

mislim, ne mora biti smak sveta, ali ne vidim scenario u kome nece biti tezak udarac.

mozda je na duze staze bolje varijanta, no to je tek o dugom stapu.

 

[Sandradjer]

Evo i ja laicki da dodam neka razmisljanja. Brine me i tajming bustera, posebno za starije. I sad dok se omikron zalaufa kod nas vec ce proci mnogim ljudima 4-5 meseci od buster doze. 

Dobro bi bilo da pronadjemo neku zemlju gde mozemo da se poredimo, makar u necemu.  Usao omikron u UAE? Oni imaju sinofarm + fajzer u velikom broju. 

[Aleksija]

ne znam, to za buster dozu izgleda nije tako linearno... mada imas poentu.

sve sto se tice omikrona i vakcina je doduse u mraku, tu cemo se tek nacekati za iole konzistentnije rezultate.

ili cemo mozda brzo videti, ako krenu hospitalizacije ili najgori ishodi - za sta se iskreno nadam da nece.

 

[gospa buba]

zalaufacemo mi zachas, samo da se pojavi. ne brinem oko toga uopshte

idioti

sent from novi mnogo jak bubamoto.

[Sandradjer]

Eeee za to smo sampioni, nama samo neka visa sila moze da pomogne

[vememah]

 

Quote

 

234 views

John Burn-Murdoch

1h, 22 tweets, 10 min read

 

Okay folks, still lot of uncertainty around severity of disease, but here’s what I’ve gleaned from latest data and many chats that @mroliverbarnes and I have had with the brilliant, tireless doctors & public health officials in South Africa ft.com/content/d315be…

Thread follows 

Newest stuff first:

Data from @nicd_sa show that in Gauteng province, the share of Covid-positive patients in ICU or on ventilators is somewhere between 2-3x lower than it was at the same stage of the Delta wave 🤞

This suggests a reduction in severity of outcomes, and we see something similar when we look at length of stay in hospital:

@nicd_sa gave me data today on admissions & discharges, and it’s clear that the gap between the two is shorter for this wave, suggesting milder illness 🤞

Both of these patterns support what we heard over the weekend from @fareedabdullah0 and co, whose report from a Covid ward in Tshwane emphasised that a much lower share of Covid+ patients needed high levels of care, and their time in hospital was shorter samrc.ac.za/news/tshwane-d…

But as always, we need to consider not only the share of patients with severe disease, but the absolute number:

Unlike total Covid-positive patient numbers, which are close to Delta levels, the numbers in ICU and on ventilators are low, though they are rising too.

Those recent rises are clearer when plotted on a log scale, and we can see that if growth rates are sustained in the coming weeks (very far from guaranteed), the sheer volume of admissions could mean similar numbers of Covid patients in ICU

Small % of large number blah blah blah

But another crucial point made in @fareedabdullah0 report was that the majority of patients on the Covid ward were actually admitted for other reasons (though NB all receiving oxygen for Covid were unvaxxed).

There are several aspects of this that are worth discussing:

First, there has been much head-scratching over the apparent contradiction between that finding, and the finding in Tshwane-wide hospital data that over the same period of time "Most (87%) patients were admitted for COVID-19 symptoms" nicd.ac.za/wp-content/upl…

.@fareedabdullah0 believes this is likely due to different definitions: some hospitals record a patient as being admitted for Covid only if it is the sole reason for admission. Others may record "for Covid" if patient has visible symptoms regardless of primary cause of admission. 

Another factor is that data on reason for admission was only recorded for 65% of patients, so strictly speaking rather than knowing that 87% of admissions were for Covid, we know that somewhere between 57% and 92% were admitted for Covid (by some definition of "for Covid").

Whatever the true number, it matters for two reasons:

First, if a chunk of Covid+ patients are not in for Covid and would have been admitted anyway, then they are not adding to hospital pressure. Say 70% are admitted for Covid, creating additional load, but maybe 30% are not. 

Second, this could be biasing *downwards* our estimates of severity.

During Delta we divided Covid ICU by all for-Covid admissions, but now we’re dividing Covid ICU by for-Covid *and a bunch of other people who didn’t know they had Covid*. Inflate denominator -> deflate severity 

Here’s how this could change the picture:

Patients line shifts down, making low numbers of ICU & vent patients (less likely to be not-for-Covid) seem less surprising.

But even with 70% incidental assumption, ICU & vent share of Covid patients is still ~2x lower than Delta 🤞

So a couple of very promising pieces of evidence for Omicron causing less severe outcomes, but once again, this does not mean "Omicron is milder".

As the endlessly helpful @rjlessells put it to us, this is what we would expect regardless given levels of immunity in South Africa.

So where does this leave us?

Well, let’s take a brief look at the less acute metrics: growth in cases, test-positivity and admissions (on log scale)... 

Still steep rises, but 👀 that wiggle in the cases line:
1) Let’s be cautious. Growth picked up again today after dipping yesterday
2) But if it is real, it would show why "if surge continues for x weeks" extrapolations can mislead. No wave has gone on forever, regardless of NPIs

 

 

To conclude
• Data suggests share of Covid cases developing severe disease is lower than with Delta
• But lots of assumptions involved in putting a specific number on the reduction
• This doesn’t necessarily mean "Omicron is milder", it’s also consistent with immune protection 

Things to ponder:
• Lot of differences between South Africa and e.g UK. Age profile, vax, what variants people been infected with. All could affect how patterns from SA translate elsewhere
• Uptick in ICU and vents in recent days could be due to cases spreading to older groups 

And finally some acknowledgements:
• Huge thanks to @fareedabdullah0 @SACEMAdirector @ShabirMadh @rjlessells @rashida_abbferr and others for taking the time to speak to us in detail
• Huge thanks to @nicd_sa for continuing to share invaluable data on the situation in SA 

We have a couple more analyses of different data coming up in the next few days which we hope to shed further light on the severity question.

In the meantime please let me know if you have other suggestions for what we should be looking into here 🙏 

Oh, and we’ll be back on here doing a Twitter Spaces session tomorrow where we’ll discuss all of this and more. Tune in at 2pm GMT / 9am ET , and do send us your questions in advance:

• • •

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1468310548609744904.html

 

[Kelt]

gledam nešto "preporuke" i "mere" još od početka pandemije sa još "mišljenjima"..

 

virus nije opasan... not

u srbiji nema registrovanih slučajeva (u februaru) - not (imao sam već xy pacijenata još iz januara i februara)

došao je kraj epidemije (1) - not

došlo je vreme da skinemo maske, epidemija jenjava - not

došao je kraj epidemije (2), sad ćemo videti samo repove - not

ko ima alergije ne sme da se vakciniše - not (delimično tačno, ali generalno ne)

trudnice, oboleli od maligni bolesti itd ne smeju da se vakcinišu - not

vakcine su eksperimentalne, ne znaju se efekti - not (mislim.. delimično tačno, ali niko neće da vakciniše hiljade ljudi bez dokaza o bezbednosti)

najbolja je kineska - not (u više radova najmanje efikasna.. bolja nego ništa, ali nedovoljno dobro)

ko se vakcinisao kineskom, preporuka je i treća doza istom - not (preporuka je mRNA)

ne sme da se u isto vreme primi vakcina protiv gripa i COVID19 - not

ne smeju da se mešaju vakcine - not

ne mogu da se uvedu covid propusnice - not

dopuniti niz..

 

jedino dobro što su uradili je bio onaj lockdown u martu

 

 

[Aleksija]

 

 

[vememah]

Da, potvrđuje ono što već vidimo nakon svih ovih događaja masovnih superširenja na proslavama i skupovima s potpuno vakcinisanima ovih dana: dve doze Fajzera ne štite od zaražavanja.

 

Ključna slika (pad neutralizacije od 41x u odnosu na prvobitni soj):

 

 

Link za preuzimanje (pdf upakovan 7z arhiverom):

https://secureservercdn.net/50.62.198.70/1mx.c5c.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/MEDRXIV-2021-267417v1-Sigal.7z

 

Ko nema čime da raspakuje, može onlajn ovde:

https://extract.me/

Edited December 7, 2021 by vememah

[vememah]

Zeleni kružići su vakcinisani koji su i preležali, a crveni vakcinisani koji nisu.

[I*m with the pilots]

Šta znamo o Omikronu - Rupert Bil, 6.12.

https://pescanik.net/sta-znamo-o-omikronu/

[vememah]

^

 

Neko je okačio pdf (moguće pregledanje ili preuzimanje):
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bBO3DLrvVMYYMDg5CKUBVaunyKvOVfhv/view

[vememah]