USA Izbori

[Lord Protector]

Obavezno gledanje za Rodju i sve koji su se razočarali, bez zezanja.

 

https://youtu.be/zY3nRgEZTm8

 

Sa tim u vezi

 

Edited November 11, 2016 by slow

[dragance]

A cuj, ima i za takve slucajeve "reshenja" - videlo se ti bjelodano™ ranih 60tih, ne? Ako vec zapne - samo ne mogu da verujem da jedan takav baron™ kao Tramp nema shlifa i sluha da ispegla (ili da mu malo ispeglaju) nesuglasice i rascepe u blizoj i daljoj buducnosti. Ono - jednom kad postane POTUS, ne?

On hoće to ispeglati, ali će barem pola administracije biti oterano.

[Lord Protector]

ne znam da li je bilo

 

[iDemo]

On hoće to ispeglati, ali će barem pola administracije biti oterano.

Vazno da nas ne boli a on nek' pegla - moze i bez fajtanja™.

[Lord Protector]

On hoće to ispeglati, ali će barem pola administracije biti oterano.

 

dugo i predano je vežbao  :D

 

Edited November 11, 2016 by slow

[Borko]

Ovaj Mur je jedna obicna neznalica koja lupeta gluposti. Kritikuje elektorski sistem i govori da ispastaju zbog "ludacke ideje iz 18. veka" i elektorskog sistema. Taj sistem je i napravljen, kao i Senat, gde Vermont daje isti broj senatora kao i Kalifornija, da bi svaka drzava bila zastupljena i osecala se vaznom, bez obzira na velicinu. Verovatno ispastaju i zbog ludackog obicaja sa pocetka 19. veka koji je kasnije usao i u ustav da zbog nekih tamo Dzordza Vosingtona i Tomasa Dzefersona predsednik moze da ima samo dva mandata.

[iDemo]

Ovaj Mur je jedna obicna neznalica koja lupeta gluposti. Kritikuje elektorski sistem i govori da ispastaju zbog "ludacke ideje iz 18. veka" i elektorskog sistema. Taj sistem je i napravljen, kao i Senat, gde Vermont daje isti broj senatora kao i Kalifornija, da bi svaka drzava bila zastupljena i osecala se vaznom, bez obzira na velicinu. Verovatno ispastaju i zbog ludackog obicaja sa pocetka 19. veka koji je kasnije usao i u ustav da zbog nekih tamo Dzordza Vosingtona i Tomasa Dzefersona predsednik moze da ima samo dva mandata.

A za POTUS-a onda neki imaju vise glasova a neki manje?? 

Negde neki imaju vise a neki manje ili je to samo tako kad se obracuna "po glavi" pa im glasovi "vrede" vishe??

[mlatko]

A za POTUS-a onda neki imaju vise glasova a neki manje??

Negde neki imaju vise a neki manje ili je to samo tako kad se obracuna "po glavi" pa im glasovi "vrede" vishe??

Pa nije jedna drzava u pitanju nego 50 koje glasaju za zajednickog predsednika, ne?

 

 

 

...poslato sa prinudnog...

[iDemo]

Pa nije jedna drzava u pitanju nego 50 koje glasaju za zajednickog predsednika, ne?

 

 

 

...poslato sa prinudnog...

To mi je promaklo...

 

Sent from my GT-I9305 using Tapatalk

[Prospero]

How a small Cambridge-based startup correctly predicted a Trump victory

 

[

Much like the UK’s vote to leave the European Union, few polling experts predicted Donald Trump would win the US presidential election. But this was not the case for all polling companies. Vuk Vukovic outlines a prediction model he developed with a small team of colleagues that proved remarkably accurate in calling the final result of the election and assesses how the method adopted could be used to provide more accurate predictions of future elections.

 

The US election result came as a shock to many, but it was the pollsters that took the biggest hit. All the major poll-based forecasts, most models, the prediction markets, and even the ‘super-forecaster’ crowd all got it wrong. They estimated high probabilities for a Clinton victory, even though some were more careful than others in claiming that the race would be very tight.

 

Our prediction survey, however, was spot on. We, at Oraclum Intelligence Systems, a Cambridge-based start-up, predicted a Trump victory, and we called all the major swing states in his favour: Pennsylvania (which no single pollster gave to him), Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio. We gave Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico to Clinton, along with the usual red states and blue states to each. We only missed three – New Hampshire, Michigan, and Wisconsin (although for Wisconsin we didn’t have enough survey respondents to make our own prediction so we had to use the average of polls instead). Essentially the only genuine misses in our method were Michigan, where we gave Clinton a 0.5 point lead, and New Hampshire where we gave Trump a 1 point lead. The figure below shows how our prediction map looked prior to the election.

 

Figure 1: US presidential election prediction map

 

Source: Oraclum

 

Every other state, although close, we called right. For example, in Florida we estimated 49.9% to Trump vs. 47.3% to Clinton. In the end it was 49.1% to 47.7%. In Pennsylvania we gave 48.2% to Trump vs. 46.7 for Clinton (it was 48.8%. to 47.6% in the end). In North Carolina our method said 51% to Trump vs. 43.5% for Clinton (Clinton got a bit more at 46.7% but Trump was spot on at 50.5%). Our model even gave Clinton a higher chance to win the overall vote share than the electoral vote, which also proved to be correct. Overall for each state, on average, we were right within a single percentage point margin – the full prediction can be read here and a snapshot of our results is reproduced in the table below.

 

 

...

[Frank Pembleton]

Jel' "srbin pobedijo" ?

 

....shit has hit the fan...

[koksy]

Ovaj Mur je jedna obicna neznalica koja lupeta gluposti. Kritikuje elektorski sistem i govori da ispastaju zbog "ludacke ideje iz 18. veka" i elektorskog sistema. Taj sistem je i napravljen, kao i Senat, gde Vermont daje isti broj senatora kao i Kalifornija, da bi svaka drzava bila zastupljena i osecala se vaznom, bez obzira na velicinu. Verovatno ispastaju i zbog ludackog obicaja sa pocetka 19. veka koji je kasnije usao i u ustav da zbog nekih tamo Dzordza Vosingtona i Tomasa Dzefersona predsednik moze da ima samo dva mandata.

 

pa bar na osnovu saznanja da je - kad manje-više niko nije - predvideo Trampa kao republikanskog kandidata, a onda i kao predsednika, uz dosta dobru analizu zašto će to tako biti (kačeno je par strana pre ove), teško je reći da je baš teška neznalica.

ovo oko elektorskog sistema kod njega nije od juče a njegov pamfletski farenhajt 9/11 potrošio je izvestan broj minuta i na tu temu. 

pitanje koje Mur postavlja ne pada baš u najzgodnije vreme ali je u načelu legitimno.

inače, njegova analiza u kojoj prorokuje Trampa kao predsednika, ima antologijsku crtu u vivisekciji zašto će prosečan beli muškarac glasati za Donalda. očekivao sam da to već bude izboldovano od strane helle ( možda i jeste samo je meni promaklo). :D   

[vememah]

How a small Cambridge-based startup correctly predicted a Trump victory

 

I nisu jedini:

 

The story of the 2016 election is one of a stunning defeat, not just for Hillary Clinton, but also for the pollsters, pundits and data-driven journalists who overwhelmingly predicted her victory.

 

But at least one scholar, Allan J. Lichtman, saw both coming. Dr. Lichtman, a historian at American University in Washington, is the co-creator of a historically based model that has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in the last eight presidential contests — and, back in September, predicted the supposedly unthinkable election of Donald J. Trump.

 

The model, developed in 1981 with the Russian mathematical geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok and elaborated in the book “Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016,” is simple on the surface. It disregards complex formulas in favor of 13 true-or-false statements measuring the underlying force that Dr. Lichtman, based on analyses of elections from 1860 through 1980, believes really matters: the strength of the incumbent party.

 

The “keys” include statements like “After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections”; “The economy is not in recession”; and “The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.”

 

Six or more false keys “predict upheaval,” Dr. Lichtman said on Wednesday.

...

You developed your model in 1981, in collaboration with the Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, who was perhaps the world’s leading expert on predicting earthquakes. Did you seek him out specifically because of that part of his work?

 

Everything we know about elections we’ve stolen from geophysics anyway — we talk about tremors of change, volcanic elections. What our model looks at isn’t Republicans versus Democrats, liberals versus conservatives, or one personality versus another, but the underlying stability of the incumbent party.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/10/arts/yes-he-thought-trump-would-win-no-he-didnt-use-hard-data.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0

Edited November 11, 2016 by vememah

[gone fishing]

- ovo je već 4 put da je izabran potus koji je dobio manje glasova, a sve kako bi se povlađivao manjim državama, kako se iste abi osetile manje bitnim

- ovo ne odgovara demokratama koje imaju veliku prednost u megalopolisima ali avaj to što će tamo dobiti 2/3 glasova ništa ne vredi ako tesno izgube tipa 48-47% u manjim državama gde ima dosta farmera a mnogo manje imigranata novijeg datuma da donesu pobedu ds...

- dakle krivi su migranti svi oni bi da žive u novom jorku, gradu anđela ili svetom franji umesto da odu u neku varošicu pored stare reke misisipi ^_^

[Miralem]

Ne kapiras. Ne radi se o isisu vec o nekom amiru koji je rodjen u Briselu ili NY i kome ce ispirati mozak da ga zapad ne voli. Neki ce pasti na to ali vecina nece. Medjutim ako on oseti da diskriminacija dolazi od strane drzave koja je do juce bila njegova onda sanse za radikalizaciju skacu. Distancom prema islamu se ovaj problem ne resava vec upravo pogorsava. Uostalom ni Putin ga ne resava tako kod kuce nego u Ceceniji maltene serijatsko pravo vazi i sipaju se milioni.

 

Poenta u tekstu koji sam okacio je odlicna. Okretanje autoritarnim liderima nece nuzno doneti mir i sklad jer takvi likovi ugrozavaju dosadasnji poredak koji je Evropu odrzao u miru 50 godina bez da nude nesto novo osim medjusobnih kombinacija koje mogu puci preko noci. Ja bih dodao i to da je EU bila okosnica postkomunisticke politike u istocnoj evropi. Slabljenjem EU se otvara prostor za lutanja i eksperimentisanja sa ekstremnim opcijama.

kako da ti kazem, pametnice moja mala, amir vec misli da ga zapad ne voli. evo cak i taj isis je osnovan, uspesno vrbuje na hiljade ljudi kako sa zapada tako i sa istoka, bombasi se raznose i kolju gde stignu. sve se to desava pre trumpa i za vakta politicke korektnosti.

 

sto se drugog pasusa tice, neko bi te pozvao da ga prminenis i na mila. ali ja, evo, necu -_-