Trump this!

[freakns]

deda nasavio sa objasnjavanjem :)

 

spstio je prednost ispod 250, mozda i ispod 200. zvanicni podaci stoje na 247, ali to je bez 67 delegata iz Washingtona koje demokrate tek treba da rasporede(nemam pojma kako kroje te delegate, ali Bernie je dobio bukvalno svaki district u Washington state, tako da ce velika vecina tih 67 ici njemu).

 

bice i nova debata u Brooklynu 14. aprila, 5 dana pred izbore. i ovo ce konacno biti prava debata, u prime time, a ne u subotu vece kada niko u US of A ne gleda politiku. Bernie ce morati dobrano da se spremi, i da bude 100% koncentrisan all the time, jer New York je closed primaries, znaci glasaju samo clanovi stranke a mnogi od demokrata su vec krenuli sa pricom "he is not a democrat, he is an independent", sto je istina, ali Bernie mora da izbegne pricu o tome da li jeste ili nije demokrata. baba ce naravno da forsira tu pricu do besvesti, da ga proglasava socijalistom (*wink* *wink* komunistom), lazovom(nisam ja uzela pare od oil industry! to sto su mi njihovi lobisti dali 5 miliona dolara, ja o tome nista ne znam! a ti lazes da sam uzela!), i slicne stvari... deda mora da ostane miran sve vreme, jer cilj je u NY doci na pobedu pa makr u nivou statisticke  greske. trenutni poll je +10 za babu, ali dan pred Wisconsin je bio od +1 za babu do +8 za Bernija, pa bilo +13...

 

a i Cruz sve jace pritiska Trumpa, a mnogo preostalih drzava je winner takes all ili winner takes most, znaci ako bude uzimao drzave, uzece i nominaciju. a tek to nije dobro, jer Trump je budala i realno lagano ce izgubiti general elections. Cruz, however, je kompletni wacko, pored kojeg Bosko Obradovic izgleda kao liberalni socijalista  a koji ce nazalost imati mnogo vece sanse na general election nego Trump.

[dragance]

Koliko god ja folirao (sam sebe) da najbolje mogu da analiziram situaciju, ovo potpisujem od prve do poslednje linije.

[aram]

Naravno, samo mislim da bi se trebalo uvesti neko pravilo da se superdelegati onda ne broje do konvencije.

ja cak procitah negde da superdelegati uopste i ne glasaju, ako ne dodje do situacije da se ne moze odrediti pobednik i da su do sada glasali jedan jedini put. ima neko strucan da pojasni?

[Ariel]

Pored priče sa superdelegatima,  po pitanju jasnih rezultata broja delegata vodu muti i celo ono zamešateljstvo u Nevadi, gde na državnoj konvenciji u Maju može da se preokrene rezultat (mada to je verovatno net gain od otprilike 10 delegata za Bernija, ali je jako simpatično što Hilarina kampanja nije u stanju da navuče dovoljno ljudi na konvenciju, tj. ako ne uspe to će biti repriza 2008.) a i ne znam kako stoje stvari u Arizoni, čitao sam da će DOJ da pokrene istragu jer je toliko žalbi na glasački proces da je to nenormalno. Rekao bih da je mrka kapa da se tu nešto ponavlja glasanje, ali može svašta da bude.

[3opge]

Bernie Sanders On the Panama Papers: Told You So

BACK IN 2011, Bernie Sanders told the Senate that Panama was “a world leader when it comes to allowing large corporations and wealthy Americans to evade US taxes.”

This week, those words are sounding eerily prophetic, and the Sanders campaign, for one, would like to remind you of that fact.

As the world reels from the so-called Panama Papers leak, which exposed the offshore tax havens of world leaders from Russia’s Vladimir Putin to Icelandic Prime Minister Davíð Gunnlaugsson, Sanders is calling attention to his opposition to the 2011 Panama Trade Agreement.

“I was opposed to the Panama Free Trade Agreement from day one,” Sanders said in a statement today. “I wish I had been proven wrong about this, but it has now come to light that the extent of Panama’s tax avoidance scams is even worse than I had feared.”

As president, Sanders says he would terminate the agreement within his first six months in office and “conduct an immediate investigation into US banks, corporations, and wealthy individuals who have been stashing their cash in Panama to avoid taxes.”

So far, news on Americans implicated in the Panama Papers scandal has been scarce, though early reports show that 211 names included in the leak correspond to US addresses. Still, given just how much data was leaked—a whopping 2.6 terabytes—it will likely be a while until the journalists involved in the investigation can sort through it all.

 

Bad Deals

The Panama Papers scandal fits nicely into the story Sanders has already been telling on trade. In an interview with the New York Daily News‘ editorial board this week, the Vermont senator promised to renegotiate “all of the trade agreements that we have.”

But when pressed for specifics, Sanders repeatedly struggled, prompting the News to press him on answers and even compare him to Donald Trump, who’s fond of saying he’ll get rid of the “bad deals” the US has struck and replace them with good ones.

The Panama scandal gives Sanders a specific trade talking point all wrapped up in a giant, international-headline-grabbing bow. It also gives Sanders a chance to take a shot at his opponent, Hillary Clinton, for opposing the agreement during the 2008 election, then pushing it forward as Secretary of State. At the time, Clintonsaid the agreement would “create jobs here at home” by making it easier for businesses to sell abroad.

Now, the Sanders campaign is capitalizing on that transition. “When it really mattered she quickly reversed course and helped push the Panama Free Trade Agreement through Congress as Secretary of State,” Sanders writes. “The results have been a disaster.”

[*edited by mod]

Upravo zbog ovog. Obeshrabrivanje I "necu da bacim glas" sindroma.

 

To bi mozda bilo tako da su parlamentarni izbori, u ovom slucaju gde je ovo predigra za glavne izbore, mislim da moze samo da bude kontra efekat i da privuce ljude koji mozda i ne bi glasali na stranackim izborima da ipak izadju i na te izbore. Jer demokratska tranka ce svakako imati svog kandidata u novembru, a posto se takmice samo dva kandidata za to jedno mesto, glas ne moze nikako biti bacen.

[dragance]

Pa u stvari, neizlazak je najverovatniji zbog "aura of inevitability". Ali ok, razumem poentu.

[Њујоркер]

Louvri u NYP:

 

If the Republican Party is to be saved from Donald Trump, Ted Cruz’s runaway victory in Wisconsin will have been the inflection point.

If you thought this service to the GOP would be met with plaudits and gratitude from the party’s insiders, you obviously don’t know anything about their relationship to the Texas senator.

St. Augustine famously prayed, Dear Lord, make me chaste — but not yet. The GOP establishment’s prayer is, Dear Lord, deliver us from Donald Trump — but not with Ted Cruz.

The increasing likelihood of a contested convention in Cleveland has led to chatter about such a conclave turning to a white knight who has the advantage of being neither Trump nor Cruz. 

House Speaker Paul Ryan, who ascended to the third-highest constitutional office in the land while (sincerely) saying he didn’t want it, is most often mentioned for the honor of winning a nomination he didn’t run for.

If there is to be a contested convention at all, it will be because Cruz beat Trump in enough places to make it happen. 

The last of the alternatives more palatable to the establishment, John Kasich, is still searching for a state besides Ohio that he can win and has yet to catch Marco Rubio in delegates.

A convention could — and should — deny Trump the nomination, but it won’t be easy. There will be a perceived legitimacy problem in denying the top prize to the top vote-getter. 

This would obviously be magnified if a convention disregards both the first- and second-place finishers, and leaves Trump and Cruz supporters alike feeling that their man was robbed of the nomination.

And for what? Electability?

The only meaningful road test for a presidential candidate is running for president. Cruz has proved adept at it. He correctly read the mood of the Republican electorate and adjusted to Trump more skillfully than anyone else (not without some cringe-inducing moments). 

If it weren’t for the black swan event of Trump, Cruz might have effectively locked the nomination up by the end of February.

It’s not clear what white knight would be any better. If Ryan had run this year, in all likelihood he would have gotten chewed up and spat out like anyone else associated with the establishment. After a convention, he would be going from zero-to-60 in a pressure-cooker national campaign. 

I consider Ryan one of the most admirable politicians on the scene today, but lighting up crowds is not one of his natural strengths.

Who else? Mitt Romney? He had his chance. A governor? The plausible ones already ran. A senator? Ditto. (With an initial field of 17, the GOP wasn’t lacking for candidates.) 

A general? They are always better in theory unless they are named Eisenhower or Grant.

And who would make a white knight happen? He wouldn’t emerge like Athena from the head of Zeus. There would have to be a major whip operation at a convention. And it would have to out-hustle that of Cruz.

Commentators skeptical of Cruz’s chances at a convention revert to the cliché that he is hated. It’s true that people in Washington tend to loathe him.

But a convention wouldn’t be a Senate Republican policy lunch. It would be stocked with Republican activists from around the country who have no first-hand knowledge of what Cruz did to so irk his colleagues, and probably don’t care.

All that said, it is possible to imagine a white-knight scenario, but only in a convention deadlock that might descend to South Korean parliament-levels of ugliness. The best, cleanest non-Trump scenario is that Cruz has the strength to win on an early ballot and his anti-establishment credentials — and his tacking Trump’s way on immigration and trade — make a revolt by the Trump forces less potent.

In short, the only reasonable alternative to Trump is Cruz. This is the conclusion that Scott Walker and other conservative leaders in Wisconsin came to, and they backed Cruz to the hilt. Republicans around the country who care about the integrity of their party and its electoral chances should do the same.

Of course, Cruz will need to grow and adapt as a candidate. There were the first signs of that in Wisconsin, where he won the “somewhat conservative” vote and excelled in the suburbs. He would be an underdog against Hillary Clinton, but the man with the biggest media megaphone on the planet has been calling him a liar and a Canadian for months, and he trails Clinton by only 3 points in the RealClearPolitics average.

Trump and Cruz have both won states around the country and millions of votes, and engendered intense followings. There is no getting around that they are the choice confronting the party. It’s time to put away childish things, and pick sides.

 

 

[Budja]

Pusijev ortak koji se oblaci u zene (izvor: Blic, 2012) podrzao Trampa.

[Dimitrije]

[Budja]

 

 

US election: Bernie Sanders invited to Vatican by Pope

[Budja]

I Krugi. Trade secretary ili novi Geitner u babinoj administraciji?

 

 

 

Sanders Over the Edge

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/08/opinion/sanders-over-the-edge.html?ref=opinion&_r=0

[Eraserhead]

Mislim da se Sanders presao sa ovim poostravanjem govora prema Hillary.

[Budja]

Mislim da se Sanders presao sa ovim poostravanjem govora prema Hillary.

 

Moguce, no prvo su njemu napravili sacekusu u NY Daily News i onda je krenula ocekivana orkestrirana kampanja.

A krugi ide u Treasury.

[Aion]

Sad svi navijamo za Klinton - svet treba da zna istinu o Area 51!