Evroazijska Unija - to je ta Evropa kojoj težimo!

[Anduril]

4 hours ago, vememah said:

Ni ti meni nisi jasan.

Nemoj da hranis trolcinu - relativizovace sistematski sve moguce sto ide kontra nekog autoritarca, od Lukasenka do Trampa.

[apostata]

9 hours ago, vememah said:

 

A što će Klajpeda da najebe.

[apostata]

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 28, 2020 by apostata

[Budja]

9 hours ago, vememah said:

 

A šta ćemo sa time da Golos tvrdi da su glasovi za Tihanovsku smanjivani po zvaničnim zapisnicima na najmanje trećini biračkih mesta za koje su rezultati dostupni u odnosu na ono prikupljeno fotografijama listića slatim na njihovu platformu?  Mačku o rep?

 

Po ko zna koji put, taj tvoj "nereprezentativan uzorak" nekako je raspoređen po celoj zemlji, a što raspodela glasova po zvaničnim zapisnicima žestoko odstupa od normalne i sasvim je očigledno vrlo štimovana u korist Lukašenka.

 

Mapa koja pokazuje gde sve postoje nepodudaranja između fotografisanih glasova i zapisnika (crvena boja, za sivo nema podataka zbog nedostatka javno objavljenih zapisnika ili osoba koje bi ih slikale, a plavo su rezultati za koje nije dokazano da nisu verodostojni):

 

 

https://partizan-results.com/

 

Raspodela udela glasova koja žestoko odstupa od normalne, na štetu Tihanovske, a u korist Lukašenka:

 

 

http://euromaidanpress.com/2020/08/21/statistics-dont-lie-how-alyaksandr-lukashenka-rigged-the-belarus-presidential-election-exclusive/

 

Aha, pa ćeš da otpišeš to kao glupost i da prihvatiš da su rezultati izbora sa 0,009% od ukupnog broja kontrolora iz opozicije po zapisnicima bili verodostojni.

 

Evo da ti objasnim: "broje" Lukašenkovi ljudi od poverenja, a ko neće da potpiše se spontano samoubije u šumi ili trpi druge ozbiljne posledice.

 

Sta da se radi, ja nekako ne mogu da prihvatim "fotografisane glasove" kao bilo kakav dokaz za nesto.

 

Jedino za sta mogu da se uhvatim su zapisnici.

 

Sto se statistike tice:

 

Histogram Trampovog udela u glasovima 2016 po counties (nemam podatke sa precincts):

 

 

Histogram Hilarinog udela u glasovima 2016 godine po counties (nemam podatke sa precincts):

 

 

1854 counties.

 

 

Lici, je l da?

 

Tramp (Lukasenko) otkida po selendrama kojih ima znatno vise, Hilari (Tihanovskaja) po gradovima sa vise biraca po counties (birackom mestu) ali ih ima manje. Svinjare vs. Novi Beograd.

 

Otud skewed distribution.

 

Podaci odavde:

https://electionlab.mit.edu/data

 

 

 

Edited August 29, 2020 by Budja

[Budja]

Doduse, ono sto bode oci nije sto raspodela nije normalna, vec dva pika Tihanosvkaje i dva pika Lukasenka gde onaj oko 7% i 85%, respektivno. Multimodalna raspodela, a to jeste sumnjivo.

[iDemo]

8 minutes ago, Budja said:

Multimodalna raspodela, a to jeste sumnjivo.

Kako-to/Zasto mislis sumnjivo? 

Mis'im - nemoj me pogreshno shvatiti - al' ne znam zasto bi ovi procenti pratili bilo koju raspodelu i/ili zasto ta raspodela ne bi bila multimodalna?  

Ono - to su emprijski™ podaci a ti ako mislis da treba da fitujesh ovu ili onu raspodelu - to mi je sasvim ok al' da se nesto zalish/mo sto ova ili ona ne fituje - ne znam - meni to nije nikakav problem. Osim ako nisam nesto kapitalno propustio na casovima verovatnoce/statistike i ostalih slicnih matematika.

[Budja]

Just now, iDemo said:

Kako-to/Zasto mislis sumnjivo? 

Mis'im - nemoj me pogreshno shvatiti - al' ne znam zasto bi ovi procenti pratili bilo koju raspodelu i/ili zasto ta raspodela ne bi bila multimodalna?  

Ono - to su emprijski™ podaci a ti ako mislis da treba da fitujesh ovu ili onu raspodelu - to mi je sasvim ok al' da se nesto zalish/mo sto ova ili ona ne fituje - ne znam - meni to nije nikakav problem. Osim ako nisam nesto kapitalno propustio na casovima verovatnoce/statistike i ostalih slicnih matematika.

 

Nisu empirijski, to Vememah hoce da kaze - to su ZVANICNI podaci sa birackih mesta, a sumnja se da su isti nabudzeni.

Posto nema nista sa pecatom™, i posto Raduletu™ ne daju da broji dzakove, onda moras nekom statistikom da se sluzis.

 

Na kraju krajeva cika Almagro je na osnovu neke statistike (muljavine, to se kasnije videlo) proglasio Eva Moralesa lopovom.

[Budja]

Stavise, bilo bi lepo da neko okaci distribuciju glasova Vucicevih izbora 2018.

 

Da vidimo da  iistematkog muljana na birackim mestima, ili samo random lezernosti u brojanju i zapisivanju, sto je vec Radule pokazao.

[iDemo]

11 hours ago, vememah said:

Stvarno treba biti potpuno bez obraza pa ne sumnjati u verodostojnost zapisnika biračkih odbora jebenog lika čiji aparat sile najopuštenije pred više kamera ubija nenaoružane ljude na ulici uz laž da su nosili eksploziv i puca u novinare.

 

Da se prvo deklarishem - apsolutno nemam dilemu u vezi ovog lika i svih njemu slicnih - da ne bude zabune, Ok? 

 

 

2 hours ago, Budja said:

 

Nisu empirijski, to Vememah hoce da kaze - to su ZVANICNI podaci sa birackih mesta, a sumnja se da su isti nabudzeni.

Posto nema nista sa pecatom™, i posto Raduletu™ ne daju da broji dzakove, onda moras nekom statistikom da se sluzis.

 

Na kraju krajeva cika Almagro je na osnovu neke statistike (muljavine, to se kasnije videlo) proglasio Eva Moralesa lopovom.

Mozda se nismo razumeli oko definicije - sta znaci "empirijski"?

 

2 hours ago, Budja said:

Stavise, bilo bi lepo da neko okaci distribuciju glasova Vucicevih izbora 2018.

 

Da vidimo da  iistematkog muljana na birackim mestima, ili samo random lezernosti u brojanju i zapisivanju, sto je vec Radule pokazao.

 

Je l' ima negde neki naucni™ rad u kome je pokazano/propisano da gore pomenuta (nekoliko puta) raspodela treba/mora da bude ili da lici na normalnu?? 

U nacelu, nisam #kicosh za zemlju u kojoj su izbori.

 

[iDemo]

3 hours ago, Budja said:

http://euromaidanpress.com/2020/08/21/statistics-dont-lie-how-alyaksandr-lukashenka-rigged-the-belarus-presidential-election-exclusive/

 

Quote

A plot of the frequency distribution of early voting and turnout (below) reveals that, compared to a theoretical normal distribution, the share of early voting at 50% appears to be inflated; with the turnout, the number of polling stations where it exceeded 80% differs greatly from the normal distribution and resembles the falsification patterns in Russia.

 

Ok, to je to...

 

[vememah]

Quote

 

'Tightening The Screws': Belarus' Lukashenko Shows No Sign Of Bending To Protests

August 28, 20205:10 PM ET

LUCIAN KIM

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko appears to be regaining the upper hand after mass demonstrations against his reelection in an Aug. 9 vote criticized as neither free nor fair by the U.S. and the European Union.

For opposition supporters, a sense of dread is replacing the euphoria of some of the largest protests in Belarus since its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

"The government is now tightening the screws very tightly, and it's becoming quite dangerous," said Yelena, 44, a volunteer in the campaign office of Viktor Babariko, one of Lukashenko's challengers in the election who was barred from running and jailed on fraud charges.

"This week people continued to go out on the street, despite all the threats and warnings that they would be arrested," said Yelena, who asked that her last name not be used because she faces persecution as an opposition activist.

"It's become scary because they can go after you simply for things like the color of your clothes," she said. "It's like George Orwell's 1984. They can punish you for wearing red and white, or a white bracelet, or a T-shirt with a slogan."

Belarus' white-red-white flag has become a symbol of the opposition to Lukashenko, who, after becoming president in 1994, introduced a green and red flag reminiscent of the nation's Soviet-era flag.

Red and white became the colors of Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, the opposition candidate who united the three campaigns of her jailed husband Sergei Tikhanovsky, Babariko and Viktor Tsepkalo, a former ambassador to the U.S. who had to flee the country. After the election, Tikhanovskaya too was forced to leave Belarus, and is now based in neighboring Lithuania.

What's left of the organized opposition to Lukashenko is a "coordination council" that wants to facilitate a dialogue with the regime for a peaceful transition of power. Lukashenko refuses to talk to the group, and the authorities have opened a criminal case against it.

On Wednesday, investigators called in Svetlana Alexievich, Belarus' Nobel literature laureate and a council member, for questioning. Earlier two leaders of the council were given 10-day jail sentences for allegedly holding an illegal rally.

"We will not be silenced and forget what happened. We demand all those responsible be investigated and brought to justice, and that law and justice be restored," Maria Kolesnikova, one of the council's leaders, said in a video appeal this week.

In the first days of the protests, police arrested almost 7,000 demonstrators. When they were released from prison, many of them spoke of being subjected to indiscriminate beatings and torture.

The protests and strikes that followed rattled the Lukashenko regime, says Artyom Shraibman, a political analyst in Minsk, but now the demonstrations in the capital are not as widespread and visible as before.

It's still too early to say that Lukashenko has won, Shraibman says, because protesters could turn out in force if the crackdown is too harsh.

"Until the protests have subsided completely, we cannot say they're over because they're basically like fire," Shraibman said. "In theory, the authorities are capable of putting some more gasoline on the fire."

The opposition council, he said, has limited room for maneuver.

"Probably the best thing that they can do is resist all of Lukashenko's efforts to drag them into framing the conflict as geopolitical," Shraibman said.

On Friday, Lukashenko visited a cheese factory in the city of Orsha, draping a white cape over his suit as he inspected the machinery. It wasn't long before he was warning dairy workers that American F-16 fighter planes were now just a 20-minute flight away from the border — maybe even armed with nuclear weapons, he said.

"They don't need Belarus. Belarus is just a springboard, as usual, to get to Russia," Lukashenko said, referring to Swedish, French and German invasions over the centuries that all led through Belarus.

Lukashenko has been talking up the threat from Belarus' NATO neighbors ever since mass protests broke out after the disputed election, which he claimed to have won in a landslide. Before the vote, Lukashenko had warned that it was enemies based in Russia who were trying to divide Belarus.

A political survivor, Lukashenko has now secured the Kremlin's backing while branding his domestic opponents as pawns of the West. On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that on Lukashenko's request, Russia had put together a rapid-reaction force that could intervene in Belarus if necessary. That same evening, Lukashenko's riot police detained more than 260 people at a peaceful rally in Minsk, including 50 journalists.

But Putin's support for Lukashenko has alienated many Belarusians, who generally have warm feelings toward Russia.

"We expected something else. We always assumed that Putin and Russia would support the Belarusian people and not one particular individual, especially when they see how hard it is for Belarusians right now," said opposition activist Yelena.

She said she hopes the weather is good this weekend so people turn out for renewed protests across the country.

 

https://www.npr.org/2020/08/28/906992368/tightening-the-screws-belarus-lukashenko-shows-no-sign-of-bending-to-protests

[vememah]

 

Edited August 29, 2020 by vememah

[vememah]

 

Prevod by Deepl:

Quote

Three weeks ago, Lukashenko was swinging the sword, saying that he would never let Russian troops into his territory. He would die, but he would protect his native land. Days have passed since that interview, and for two weeks now Lukashenko has been begging Putin to bring in Russian troops....

 

[tempo]

French President Emmanuel Macron “wants to mediate negotiations in Belarus. First let me come, I’ll be a mediator between the Yellow Vests and Macron," Alexander Lukashenko said at a rally in Minsk, referring to the iconic opposition movement that led months of anti-government protests in France.

[vememah]

Quote

 

Russia recognises the legitimacy of the 9 August presidential election in Belarus, President Vladimir Putin said on Saturday in an interview with the Rossiya 1 television channel.

"The Belarusian authorities have invited the OSCE ODIHR [Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights] to take part in monitoring the elections. Why did it not come? This immediately makes us think that, in fact, a position on the results of these elections had already been formulated. Therefore, someone may doubt the results, but I have every reason to doubt that those who doubt [the election results] were completely honest", Putin said.

"Therefore, we proceed from the fact that the election took place. We — I did it right away — we recognised its legitimacy. And as you know, I congratulated Alexander Grigorievich Lukashenko on his victory in this election. That is all", Putin added.
...

 

https://sputniknews.com/russia/202008291080311630-putin-says-russia-recognises-legitimacy-of-presidential-election-in-belarus/