Deals

[Eraserhead]

On Wall Street, M&A giveth and M&A taketh away. The two sides of the high-stakes games played by banks vying to advise companies on mergers and acquisitions were on full display on Monday.

 

AT&T Inc. T 0.00%  's pact to buy DirecTV DTV 0.00%  for $48.5 billion put the companies' Wall Street advisers in position to collect north of a hundred million dollars in fees. But another set of firms were left ruing what might have been as Pfizer Inc. PFE 0.00%  's $120 billion bid for the U.K. drug group AstraZeneca AZN.LN +0.05%  PLC was close to collapse.

 

Banks aren't just competing for fees. They also are seeking bragging rights tied to the industry "league tables" that rank banks by the volume of M&A deals on their rosters. In certain cases, shareholders are taking notice, too. Shares in Lazard Ltd. LAZ 0.00%  , AT&T's adviser on the DirecTV deal, rose 2.4% to $50.17 Monday following the announcement of the takeover on Sunday.

 

By contrast, a failure of the proposed Pfizer-AstraZeneca deal would be a disappointment for J.P. Morgan Chase JPM +0.04%  & Co., Bank of America BAC -0.27%  Merrill Lynch and Guggenheim Partners, which are working for Pfizer on that deal. That merger, now mired in a dispute over price and other factors, likely would yield fees even larger than those from the AT&T-DirecTV deal.

 

Pfizer hasn't pulled the plug on the deal. But banks tend to get paid most of their advisory fees when takeovers close, and in this case no combination has even been agreed to by both sides.

 

The twists in the two negotiations serve as a reminder of how important one takeover can be even at a time of heavy deal making. Merger activity is spiking after years in the doldrums and the volume of big-ticket deals is surging as confidence and the appetite for risk return to boardrooms. Year to date, the total value of agreed-upon U.S. deals is $585 billion, up 87% from the same period last year.

 

Meanwhile, there have been 19 agreed-upon deals or public takeover offers of $10 billion or more so far this year, the most ever in that period, according to Dealogic, whose records date to 1995. By dollar amount, these deals represent 39% of overall volume, also the highest percentage on record.

 

Some say the ups and downs of the megadeal market show the value of chasing smaller deals. "Because of the uncertainty that any deal would close, I'd rather have a larger number of smaller bets than one or two big bets," said Peter Lyons, an M&A partner at law firm Shearman & Sterling LLP.

 

If a Pfizer-AstraZeneca deal doesn't happen, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. would have $313 billion in advisory credit under its belt, and be No. 1 in the ranking of U.S. deals nearly halfway through the year. Meanwhile, its perennial rival, Morgan Stanley—which didn't land a role on the media deal—would drop to third from first, according to Dealogic. Goldman is advising DirecTV alongside Bank of America. To be sure, Goldman is among a gaggle of banks advising AstraZeneca, as is Morgan Stanley, but their mandate isn't necessarily to strike a deal with Pfizer.

 

Its role with AT&T has a more pronounced effect on Lazard's standing, as the storied advisory firm leaps to sixth from 16th in the accounting. The developments in the two deals have less of an impact on the global league tables.

 

For Goldman, the victory is particularly sweet. Just months ago, the investment bank backed the losing horse in the battle for Time Warner Cable Inc., TWC 0.00%  advising Charter Communications Inc., CHTR 0.00%  which in a surprising development was outbid by Comcast Corp. CMCSA 0.00%  Goldman did, however, win a role in a side deal that Comcast later struck with Charter to unload a number of cable-television subscribers, though that purchase would be valued at significantly less than the $45 billion Comcast-Time Warner Cable agreement.

 

J.P. Morgan is the odd man out in both cases. The bank has worked with AT&T many times—including the telecommunications giant's failed effort in 2011 to buy T-Mobile US Inc. TMUS 0.00%  for $39 billion—but missed out on a role in its deal with DirecTV.

 

 

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304422704579572413378073776?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection&mg=reno64-wsj

 

Prosle godine je uprkos oporavku ekonomije nivo M&A transakcija bio dosta dugo na nivou prethodne godine da bi se tek u Q4 obim transakcija povecao. To se tumacilo tako sto iako je ekonomija krenula da se oporavlja jos uvek je postojalo nepoverenje u kom ce to pravcu ici. Ovu godinu medjutim karakterise veliki skok dilova kao i pomeranje ka vecim dilovima (sto se navodi u ovom tekstu). 

 

Ovaj tekst se bavi time kako dilovi uticu ne samo na kompanije koje ucestvuju u dilu nego i na Investicione banke koje ih u tim dilovima savetuju ili cak i finansiraju. 

 

Mislim da ce u daljem periodu ova oblast biti jako zanimljiva sa vecim obimom transakcija i sa vise cross-border transakcija pa cu se potruditi da ovde okacim zanimljive tekstove i analize na koje naletim.

 

Za one koje interesuje ova oblast ekonomije pored WSJ dobri sajtovi su i: 

 

Dealogic

Dealbook(NYT)

Edited May 21, 2014 by Eraserhead

[Budja]

Zar ti ne ides u VC banku?

Sta te briga za M&A?

[Eraserhead]

Ne, idem u middle market IB McColl Partners (Od prosle godine Deloitte Corp Fin), ali bez obzira na to M&A je mozda najdinamicniji deo ekonomije koji sazima makroekonomiju, politiku, strategiju, biznis, racunovodstvo. Mislim da se tu jako puno zanimljivih stvari desava i da ce se tek desavati tako da mozda bude interesantno za diskusiju.

[Budja]

Naravno.

[Eraserhead]

Nije deal ali mozda bude nekome interesantno. Cena Alibabe je prvi dn trgovanja skocila za 38% i iznosi skoro $94. Cena sa kojom se islo u IPO je bila $68 i podignuta je par dana pred IPO sa nivoa od $60-$66. Kada je Facebook izasao na berzu prvog dana je jedva ostao iznad IPO cene a tokom par meseci je pao znatno iznad te cene sto se smatra velikim neuspehom Morgan Stanleya. Bice ovde jos zanimljivih stvari vezano za Alibabu, ali je prvi dan trgovanja prosao odlicno.

[MayDay]

Baš danas razmišljam kako sam tužna u Crnoj Gori jer nemam nikog da komentarišemo ovaj IPO.

 

Hehe, koja igra očekivanjima kod Facebook vs. Alibaba.

[Budja]

Nije deal ali mozda bude nekome interesantno. Cena Alibabe je prvi dn trgovanja skocila za 38% i iznosi skoro $94. Cena sa kojom se islo u IPO je bila $68 i podignuta je par dana pred IPO sa nivoa od $60-$66. Kada je Facebook izasao na berzu prvog dana je jedva ostao iznad IPO cene a tokom par meseci je pao znatno iznad te cene sto se smatra velikim neuspehom Morgan Stanleya. Bice ovde jos zanimljivih stvari vezano za Alibabu, ali je prvi dan trgovanja prosao odlicno.

 

Ako je Morgan Stanley radio za Facebook u cemu je problem?

[Eraserhead]

Sjebali su. Precenili su ih. Kad radis IPO ocesda kompanija ima upward trend prvih par dana tako da ne pucas na najvecu mogucu cenu. MS je tu zajebo.

[Budja]

Sjebali su. Precenili su ih. Kad radis IPO ocesda kompanija ima upward trend prvih par dana tako da ne pucas na najvecu mogucu cenu. MS je tu zajebo.

 

To je do jaja za kompaniju - dobili vise kesa nego sto zasluzuju. Market timing.

 

Sto se upward trenda, short underpricing, long term overpricing, ima tu, kao sto sigurno znas, teorija i teorija.

[Ravanelli]

prodao se salford

 

 

kupili su ga mid europa partners (koji su prethodno zavaljali SBB KKR-u za oko milijardu) + bivši marbovci + ebrd

[Eraserhead]

 

prodao se salford

 

 

kupili su ga mid europa partners (koji su prethodno zavaljali SBB KKR-u za oko milijardu) + bivši marbovci + ebrd

Kod ovih stvari je zanimljivo da u zemljama poput Srbije investicioni fondovi uvlace EBRD u pricu cak i kad im ne treba samo da bi smanjili politicki rizik. Inace ovi dealovi su se radili bar po dve godine (i KKR i ovaj Salfirdov) tako da sam bio angazovan kod obe transakcije u ranoj fazi i u pitanju su vrlo zanimljive kompanije. Posebno me interesuje sta ce KKR napraviti s SBBom.

[Ravanelli]

mislio sam da je salford trajao kraće. koliko znam, prvo im je kkr bio u data roomu, pa su im uleteli ovi iz mid europe

[nenad]

trajao je dosta dugo. kkr je imao exclusivity period i dao ponudu kojom prodavac nije bio zadovoljan. posle je dosao mep. 

 

bila je prica jedno vreme da ce oni to uzeti zajedno. odakle ovaj info da su uzeli sa marbovcima i ebrd-om?

[Ravanelli]

ne znam zašto nije objavljeno. andrej jovanovic ce biti direktor dfg.

lik koji im vodi blue sea capital je bivši ebrd-ovac.

Edited February 3, 2015 by Ravanelli

[levi]

Šta sad mrse ovi? http://www.belex.rs/data/2015/02/00092013.pdf

 

Datum osnivanja 28.01.2015