Толстый и тонкий

[barrcode]

ponovo raspad. +6.50%

ništa skoro pa duplirana referentna kamatna stopa.
 

 

Day's Range: 58.2628 - 69.3025

 

Edited December 16, 2014 by barrcode

[namenski]

Zaz je na manevrima u Kalinjingradu, sprema se za odsudnu bitku za odbranu Otečestva

Mislis na Königsberg?

[Lord Protector]

kako je krenulo, biće opet

[namenski]

To vec teze.

 

Pogledati pod MS Wilhelm Gustloff  :P .

 

Sa referencom na: Александр Иванович Маринеско

[Eraserhead]

Stabilnost njihove ekonomije je trajla citava 3 meseca u ovom natezanju sa zapadom.

Edited December 16, 2014 by Eraserhead

[Lord Protector]

Russia Raises Interest Rates To 17% To Defend Ruble; Might Work, Might Not

 

Overnight Russia has raised the central bank interest rate in order to try to protect the ruble. The currency had, at one point yesterday, lost 13% of its value against the dollar. No, that’s not a monthly nor an annual loss, that’s the loss in just a few hours of trading. Obviously this is all in reaction to the falling price of oil. The big question thus is whether hiking that interest rate so strongly, from 10.5% of a few days ago to 17% now, is actually going to work. And it’s not entirely obvious that it will.

Russia was forced to ramp up interest rates on Tuesday in a desperate attempt to rescue its ruble while factory activity in China shrank for the first time in seven months, marking an increasingly turbulent end to the year for the global economy.

The relentless slide in oil prices, while a blessing to most rich world consumers, is becoming a curse for countries reliant on resource exports. Indonesia became the latest Asian casualty on Tuesday as its currency caved to fresh 16-year lows.

Russia had to take drastic action to defend its currency, raising interest rates by no less than 5.5 percentage points to 17 percent in a shock midnight maneuver.

Ambrose Evans Pritchard has more background:

The Russian currency has lost half its value since President

Vladimir Putin

first sent forces into Ukraine, setting off a chain of events that the Kremlin can no longer control.

“This is being driven by pure fear. We have crossed a line and the crisis is now self-feeding,” Chris Weafer, from Macro Advisory in Moscow, said before the rate rise. “The central bank must intervene immediately with a great deal of money to overwhelm the sense of panic.”

The central bank said capital flight will reach $130bn this year. In a drastic change in outlook, it warned that the economy may contract by 4.7pc in 2015 if oil settles near $60 a barrel. Morgan Stanley said the economy will shrink at a rate of 6pc if crude drops to $50.

The story that’s lurking around in my hindbrain to illustrate this is the UK’s own currency crisis back in the early 1990s.

The thing is that raising interest rates should indeed bolster the value of the currency. It provides an incentive for people to switch from the $ into the ruble to enjoy some of that juicy interest rate for example. And it will prevent others from switching out. This is all entirely standard stuff: and it also shows that the government is quite keen on the rate not falling further. Governments don’t always get what they want of course but at least people now know that the government will be working to support the exchange rate.

Excellent: but that doesn’t mean that it’s going to work. There’s been a rise in the ruble $ rate overnight but it’s what happens over the next couple of days as people consider the move that matters. And that’s where I start thinking about Norman Lamont and the pound. True, it’s not entirely the same: the £ to DM exchange rate was fixed at the time and so interest rates had to be moved around in order to maintain that rate. Fixed exchange rate systems are different from floating rate ones. That rate came under increasing pressure (it was at entirely the wrong rate anyway and the entire idea was a horrible one but that is where we were) and speculators started to bet that the rate simply couldn’t be held (this is the occasion when George Soros “broke the Bank of England” of course). I can recall listening to the radio that day and while not all of the details are crystal clear at this distance there was one interest rate rise to defend the pound and this didn’t seem to work. More speculators piled in with yet more bets against the pound. So another rise was called, this time (from memory) a full three percentage points to 15%. That should have done it: but of course, as we know, it didn’t. Because people looked at what 15% interest rates would do to the British economy, essentially leave it as a pile of smoking rubble, and realised that the government simply wasn’t going to do it. I do recall turning to a friend on the news of the rise to 15% and saying “That’s it”. On the grounds that it just wasn’t supportable and would swiftly be reversed.

So yet more people sold pounds in great crashing waves and as the government thought about it all they then abandoned the fixed exchange rate, dropped interest rates again that afternoon and so began the longest economic boom of modern times in the UK.

 

And that’s the point here about the ruble. That rise in interest rates to 17% should work. Should stabilise the currency, aid it to regain some of its lost value against the dollar. But, and here’s the catch, only if everyone believes that the government’s going to stick with it. 17% interest rates really aren’t going to be good for that Russian economy. In fact interest rates that high are going to strangle many a business. If the markets believe that the central bank is going to allow that to happen in order to defend the ruble then it will indeed defend the ruble. But if they think, as they did in the UK’s experience, that the pain won’t be undertaken then the ruble will continue to fall: and perhaps faster than it has been.

It’s way to early to be able to tell which way this is going to go. But it does remain true that the outcome is in doubt. For while interest rate rises are the classic manner of defending a currency rate they also have an effect on the rest of the economy. And the big question then becomes will people accept the pain in that economy in order to defend that exchange rate? And while pulling out the bazooka and firing off this shell of an extreme rate hike could or should work, whether it actually does so depends upon where the markets think the damage from the shell is going to be and how bad it will be. If said markets think the damage is going to be too much to bear then the ruble dollar rate could well continue to fall.

Interesting times, eh?

My latest book is “23 Things We Are Telling You About Capitalism” At Amazon or Amazon UK. A critical (highly critical) re-appraisal of Ha Joon Chang’s “23 Things They Don’t Tell You About Capitalism”.

 

 

Edited December 16, 2014 by slow

[Marcus Wulffings]

1.00 USD = 72.0635 RUB

 

 

1.00 EUR = 90.4836 RUB 

 

danas je bio udar na finansije do balčaka

ovako, pa svaki dan po malo, ćao zdravo, kakvi ratovi kakvi bakrači

[banecare1]

otisao je evro i preko 100 danas 

likvidirace me kinezi, rusi su obustavili sva placanja...vreme je da citam noksichev topik i kupim prnje 

 

 

 

[Ravanelli]

zamisli da si rus koji ima neki veći kredit sa fiksnom kamatom + plutajućim delom u referetnoj kamatnoj stopi.

 

kakav haos jbt. rusi su mi, samo sa parama.

 

 

 

otisao je evro i preko 100 danas 

likvidirace me kinezi, rusi su obustavili sva placanja...vreme je da citam noksichev topik i kupim prnje 

kako ti ide to u praksi?

u kini pretpostavljam da kupuješ sirovine za koje ti treba strana valuta. a rusi ti ne šalju pare sa kojima bi mogao nešto da kupiš jer je sada preskupo?

Edited December 16, 2014 by Ravanelli

[Anduril]

Ovo ce biti katastrofa - do kraja ove godine ruske firme moraju da vrate nekih 35 milijardi u dolarima pa ovo ne cudi.

Na kraju 2015 moraju da vrate jos vise od 100 milijardi u dolarima.

Ukupne rezerve centralne banke im sada stoje na manje od 400 a od cega svega oko 200 milijardi raspolozivih u kesu.

Istovremeno ce Fed sledece godine poceti sa dizanjem kamata - morace Kremlj na kraju da moli ili Saudijce ili SAD jer ovako im vec tokom 2015. sledi totalni raspad.

 

SAD mogu da obustave fraking ali isto tako ga mogu zapoceti ponovo ukoliko cena krene na gore.

Ruska polja i gasovodi ka Kini zahtevaju ogromne investicije na duzi rok a ovako nista od toga nece moci sami da sprovedu - i izgleda da na to cilja KSA.

Na kraju ce Kremlj jos prodati suverenitet sa sve poljima Kini koja je mnogo opasniji sused od EU.

I sve to zbog tamo nekog Vikinga (Vladimira 1) koji je pre 1000 godina prihvatio hriscanstvo na Krimu.

Zaista spektakularni fail KGB ekipe kakav se retko vidja. 

 

Sada ce ili da pocnu sa podvijanjem repa ili ce zemlju sa sve Evropom da uvale u jos veci problem.

[Ravanelli]

SAD mogu da obustave fraking ali isto tako ga mogu zapoceti ponovo ukoliko cena krene na gore.

samo još da se nađu investitori koji će biti voljni da ponove upravo naučenu lekciju i finasiraju još jedan oversupply koji bi doveo do pada cene nafte i gubitka novca.

 

 

što se tiče vraćanja duga, rosneft je prodao 11 milijardi $ corporate bondsa ruskoj centralnoj banci kako bi vratio dug

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-12/rosneft-s-10-8-billion-refinancing-driven-by-central-bank-cash.html

 

++++

 

iskreno, mislim da rusi mogu još dugo da prežive ovo.

 

jednostavno nema neke ozbiljnije opozicije u rusije. da bi se organizovala i dobila podršku trebaće makar godinu dana. sistem mu je represivan i zategnut do jaja.

biće siromašniji i biće jako zajebano, ali putin neće pasti.

 

bukvalno zavisi da li će popustiti, a ne verujem da će popustiti jer je odavno sračunao da mu je bitnije da odbije nato od granica nego ekonomija.

srednjeročno će doći do rasta cena nafte, tables will turn i biće im bolje.

Edited December 16, 2014 by Ravanelli

[banecare1]

 

 

kako ti ide to u praksi?

u kini pretpostavljam da kupuješ sirovine za koje ti treba strana valuta. a rusi ti ne šalju pare sa kojima bi mogao nešto da kupiš jer je sada preskupo?

 

u praksi smo kupili sirovine u kini na otvoreno za usd i prodali na domacem trzistu za rublje sa nekom marzom, dalje vidi kurs rublje u zadljih par dana, a marze u biznisu sa sirovinama nisu preko 10-15%. na to dodaj da trokira (prakticno je blokirano) placanje u USD iz rusije, samo usluga za izbacivanje para ide do 8% trenutno. ja sam sa istom ekipom vec prosao krizu 2008 godine, kada je bila slicna situacija, pregurace se i ovo valjda. maciji kasalj je 2008/2014 u poredjenju sa 1992-95 za nas bosancerose  -_-

[Anduril]

@ Ravanelli

 

Kazem da ce biti katastrofa za zemlju u ekonomskom smislu a za Putina i ekipu me zabole.

Sta ce biti sa njima je tesko predvideti, ali, mnogo veca opasnost im svakako preti iznutra nego nekakva opozicija.

Tesko je za poverovati da je citava svita homogena, a sa tajkunima koji gube milijarde lako je zamisliti da ce pre ili kasnije krenuti neki ozbiljniji infajt. Previse ljudi tu gubi previse novca.

 

Sto se tice frakinga, pa videcemo, ali, cinjenica je da su njihova polja mnogo fleksibilnija a ulozeno je pre svega u technologiju koju nece tek tako baciti. Ta tecnologija ce da vredi i za godinu dana ako cene krenu opet na gore. Uostalom, videcemo...

[Zaz_pi]

Oh, koliko vas je. Nemojte se nadati necemu mnogo. Glavni razlog pada je posledica CB Rusije koja je dala 3 triliona rublji na repo operacije ;) . Rublja je dostigla 80 i onda naglo pala, sada je skoro 71 za $. U principu sa intervencijom od nekih 3-5 milijardi $ mogu na 50-55 ali bi to bilo glupo kada se zna da nafta pada 2% na dan. Realni paritet sa naftom bi trebao da bude 60-65 za $ na 55-60, koliko je sada Ural.

[Zaz_pi]

@ Ravanelli Kazem da ce biti katastrofa za zemlju u ekonomskom smislu a za Putina i ekipu me zabole. Sta ce biti sa njima je tesko predvideti, ali, mnogo veca opasnost im svakako preti iznutra nego nekakva opozicija. Tesko je za poverovati da je citava svita homogena, a sa tajkunima koji gube milijarde lako je zamisliti da ce pre ili kasnije krenuti neki ozbiljniji infajt. Previse ljudi tu gubi previse novca. Sto se tice frakinga, pa videcemo, ali, cinjenica je da su njihova polja mnogo fleksibilnija a ulozeno je pre svega u technologiju koju nece tek tako baciti. Ta tecnologija ce da vredi i za godinu dana ako cene krenu opet na gore. Uostalom, videcemo...

 

Pa ovaj pad u rublji je upravo da bi se podrzale ruske kompanije. :)