Толстый и тонкий

[hazard]

Ovo jos bolje od onog tenka sto se pokvario:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6erksh1EiBQ

 

Mnogo zanimljiviji je ovaj tekst o raspadu Rusije i zasto to nije u interesu Zapada i uopste cele planete:

 

 

Politics

If Russia breaks up

The peril beyond Putin

 

The world rightly worries about the prospect of a Greater Russia. But a Lesser Russia could be just as troubling

 

UNDER Vladimir Putin’s presidency, Russia is seen in the outside world as an expansionist power trying to revise post-Soviet borders and rebuild an empire. But what if Russia itself—a country of nearly 200 nationalities that stretches across 11 time zones—is in danger of crumbling?

 

It would not be the first time that Russia tried aggression and expansion as a defence against modernisation and by doing so undermined its own territorial integrity. In 1904, when Russia was on the verge of a revolution, Nicholas II attempted to stave off change by looking for national traitors and starting a small war with Japan. The war ended a year later in Russia’s defeat and 12 years later the tsarist Russian empire faded away in a few days. In 1979, as Communist rule struggled under the weight of its own contradictions, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan; 12 years later the Soviet Union collapsed just as suddenly.

 

In 2011 Moscow’s urban middle class took to the streets to demand modernisation. Mr Putin responded by picking out alleged national traitors, annexing Crimea and starting a war against Ukraine. The idea that Russia’s latest foreign-policy adventures might end in the same way as previous ones—with the collapse of the state and disintegration of the country—is not as far-fetched as it might seem.

 

The Soviet Union came apart because it overstretched itself and ran out of money and ideas. Local elites saw no benefit in remaining part of a bankrupt country. It fragmented along the administrative borders of the 15 republics that made up the giant country.

 

Yet there was no reason why the process had to stop there. Indeed, many of Russia’s regions—including Siberia, Ural, Karelia and Tatarstan—declared their “sovereignty” at the time. To prevent further disintegration Russia’s then president, Boris Yeltsin, came up with the idea of a federation, promising each region as much “sovereignty as it could swallow”. Yeltsin made this promise in Kazan, the ancient capital of Tatarstan, which acquired many attributes of a separate state: a president, a constitution, a flag and, most important, its own budget. In exchange, Tatarstan promised to stay part of Russia.

 

Mr Putin has reversed federalism, and turned Russia into a centralised state. He cancelled regional elections, imposed a “presidential” representative over the heads of governors and redistributed tax revenues in Moscow’s favour. But he did not build common institutions. The Russian state is seen not as an upholder of law but as a source of injustice and corruption.

 

In the words of Mikhail Iampolski, a historian, Russia at present resembles a khanate in which local princes receive a licence to rule from the chief khan in the Kremlin. For the past decade the main job of the Moscow-appointed governors has been to provide votes for Mr Putin. In exchange they received a share of oil revenues and the right to rule as they see fit. Chechnya under Ramzan Kadyrov, a former warlord installed by Mr Putin, is a grotesque illustration of this. In the most recent presidential election, Chechnya provided 99.7% of its votes for Mr Putin with a turnout of 99.6%. In return, Mr Kadyrov receives subsidies and freedom to subject his people to his own “informal” taxes and Islamic rules. Moscow pays a dictatorial and corrupt Chechnya a vast due in return for Mr Kadyrov pretending to be part of Russia and pledging loyalty to Mr Putin.

 

Despite Russia’s deep paranoia that America is trying to break it up, such a scenario is one of the West’s worst nightmares

 

If Mr Putin goes and the money runs out, Chechnya could be the first to break off. This would have a dramatic effect on the rest of the north Caucasus region. Neighbouring Dagestan, a far bigger and more complex republic than Chechnya, could fragment. A conflict in the Caucasus combined with the weakness of the central government in Russia could make other regions want to detach themselves from Moscow’s problems.

 

Tatarstan, home to 2m Muslim ethnic Tatars and 1.5m ethnic Russians, could declare itself the separate khanate it was in the 15th century. It has a strong identity, a diverse economy, which includes its own oil firm, and a well-educated ruling class. It would form a special relationship with Crimea, which Crimean Tartars (at last able to claim their historic land) would declare an independent state.

 

The Ural region could form a republic—as it tried to do in 1993—around Yekaterinburg, Russia’s fourth-largest city, or else it could form a union with Siberia. Siberia itself could revive its own identity, from a base in the cities of Krasnoyarsk and Irkutsk, and lay claim to its oil-and-gas riches, which it would sell to China. Unlike Russia, China might not have much interest in territorial expansion into the sparsely populated Far East and Siberia, but it could (and already does) colonise these regions economically. Vladivostok and Khabarovsk, two of the largest cities in the Far East, are more economically integrated with China and South Korea than they are with the European part of Russia.

 

Things fall apart—with nukes inside

 

Despite Russia’s deep paranoia that America is trying to break it up, such a scenario is one of the West’s worst nightmares. It opens the question of control over Russia’s nuclear arms. Although the command centre would remain in Moscow, securing missiles spread across Russian territory could be harder than it was after the collapse of the Soviet Union. At the time, the Russians and Americans worked successfully together to move the nuclear arsenal from Ukraine and Kazakhstan to Russia. Ukraine was given a piece of paper—called the Budapest memorandum and signed by Russia, America and Britain—which guaranteed its territorial integrity in exchange for giving up its nuclear arms. Now, Russia’s annexation of Crimea has made any such assurance worthless.

 

The spectre of disintegration is already haunting Russia. Politicians and pundits are scared to discuss it publicly. Shortly after annexing Crimea and stirring separatism in eastern Ukraine, the Kremlin introduced a law which makes “incitement of any action undermining Russia’s own territorial integrity” a criminal offence. Yet the greatest threat to Russia’s territorial integrity is posed by the Kremlin itself and its policies in Ukraine.

 

By breaking the post-Soviet borders, Mr Putin opened a Pandora’s box. If Crimea “historically” belongs to Russia as he has claimed, what about Kaliningrad, the former Königsberg, an exclave which Germany lost to Russia after the second world war? Should not eastern Karelia, which Finland ceded to the Soviet Union after the winter war in 1940, be Finnish and the Kuril Islands return to Japan?

 

Even more perilously for Russia’s future, Mr Putin brought into motion forces that thrive on war and nationalism. These are not the forces of imperial expansion—Russia lacks the dynamism, resources and vision that empire-building requires. They are forces of chaos and disorganisation. Eastern Ukraine has turned into a nest of criminals and racketeers. They cannot spread Russian civilisation, but they can spread anarchy.

 

In short, Russia under Mr Putin is much more fragile than it looks. Vyacheslav Volodin, his deputy chief of staff, recently equated Mr Putin with Russia: “No Putin, no Russia,” he said. It is hard to think of a worse indictment.

 

Malo preteruje sa scenarijom. Kako bi to krimski tatari proglasili nezavisnu državu, kad ih ima 10ak % na Krimu samo? Kako bi se to Tatarstan časkom odvojio, a lepo kaže da Tatara ima 2 miliona naspram milion i po Rusa? Sibir, Ural - i tamo su Rusi većina.

[Muwan]

Te priče o raspadu Rusije koji samo što nije malkice podsećaju na onaj kraj dolara koji samo što nije.

[dillinger]

Ipak je mnogo jača/jadnija teza da raspad Rusije nije u iteresu zapada

[barrcode]

Peskovu podmetnuli sat od 620.000$

[Prospero]

Kakva rugoba od sata, treba ga besiti pred Lubjankom prvo zbog nemanja stila a tek onda mu suditi zbog korupcije.

[Lord Protector]

Kakva rugoba od sata, treba ga besiti pred Lubjankom prvo zbog nemanja stila a tek onda mu suditi zbog korupcije.

 

+1

 

Sat je odvratan ali je mlada lepa

 

Edited August 3, 2015 by slow

[Prospero]

 

MinObrazovanja Sverdlovske oblasti naložilo javnim bibliotekama da pročešljaju fondove i ratosiljaju se knjiga u izdanju Soroševih NGO, a posebno knjige o 2SR iz pera Entonija Bivora i Džona Kigena, jer su "pune stereotipa formiranih u doba Trećeg rajha".

 

Prskotine.

 

via TT

[Yoda]

Si citao to, na koje to stereotipe misle?

[Prospero]

Pa ne znam ???? Bivora sam čitao davno, ne sećam se nekih wtf napisa, a sad me mrzi da kopam.

 

Al da ne ulazimo i u to, stereotipi se ne pobijaju izbacivanjem iz biblioteke, ovo su prilično loše stvari.

 

via TT

Edited August 4, 2015 by Prospero

[Yoda]

Ma jasno to, nego me zanimalo sta su pisali.

 

edit: Sprovode se, inace, u ovom slucaju instrukcije s vrha. Zanimljivo da se iste te instrukcije krse po pitanju, recimo, najstarijeg McDonaldsa u Moskvi, koji je malo podmazao gde treba i nastavio da radi bez problema. A cujem i da Kolomojski dobija i dalje tendere po Moskvi.

Edited August 4, 2015 by Yoda

[Prospero]

Korigovaću se za nijansu i primetiti da knjige treba da budu sklonjene od pedagoga i predavaca, dakle da ne budu u upotrebi u nastavi, a ne da su full time uklonjene.

 

Mada ne menja moj stav o tome.

 

Kod nas je spisak fakultativne literature za Opstu savremenu istoriju imao 22 strane, plus slobodu dodavanja naslova van spiska. I just like it that way.

 

via TT

[apostata]

Si citao to, na koje to stereotipe misle?

Kod Bivora na npr. ono o 2 mil. silovanih Njemica.

[Lord Protector]

MinObrazovanja Sverdlovske oblasti naložilo javnim bibliotekama da pročešljaju fondove i ratosiljaju se knjiga u izdanju Soroševih NGO, a posebno knjige o 2SR iz pera Entonija Bivora i Džona Kigena, jer su "pune stereotipa formiranih u doba Trećeg rajha".

 

Prskotine.

 

 

 

Bolest. Nema knjiga nema problema...Putinov režim je definitivno ušao u fazu brežnjevizma i truljenja. Ako ovako nastave doživeće neslavnu sudbinu prethodnika.

Edited August 5, 2015 by slow

[Anonymous]

Spoljnotrgovinski promet Rusije u prvom polugodištu ove godine dostigao je 270,7 milijardi dolara, što je 32,6 odsto manje nego godinu dana ranije, saopštila je Federalna carinska služba.

 

Izvoz iz Rusije u provoj polovini godine bio je 183 milijardi dolara, što je međugodišnji pad od 28,8 odsto, a uvezeno je robe u vrednosti 87,7 milijardi dolara, 39,5 odsto manje nego u prvih šest meseci 2014. godine.

 

U strukturi zemalja sa kojom Rusija ima najveću spoljnotrgovinsku razmenu vodeće mesto zauzima Evropska unija, kao najveći ekonomski partner. Udeo EU u ruskom robnom prometu u prvih šest meseci ove godine je bio 46 odsto.

 

Glavni trgovinski partneri Rusije bili su Kina, sa kojom je robna razmena iznosila 30,6 milijardi dolara, Holandija (23,6 milijardi dolara) i Nemačka (23,2 milijarde dolara).

[Lord Protector]

Naplata podrške Putinovom režimu

 

Stiven Sigal zainteresovan za posao s dijamantima u Jakutiji

 

 

Poznati američki glumac Stiven Sigal, koji je doputovao u rusku republiku Jakutiju, najverovatnije je zainteresovan za biznis u proizvodnji dijamanata kao privatno lice

Poznati američki glumac Stiven Sigal, koji je doputovao u rusku republiku Jakutiju, najverovatnije je zainteresovan za biznis u proizvodnji dijamanata kao privatno lice.

Naime, holivudska zvezda nema nikakve veze sa radom fonda Legg Mason Global Ašet Management Trust u sastavu čije delegacije je došao u grad Mirnij, saznaje Tas u kompaniji Alrosa.

"Stiven Sigal je zaista još davno pokazao interesovanje za investiranje u rusku proizvodnju dijamanata. Ranije se već upoznao sa aktivnostima ruske grupe Alrosa koja okuplja kompanije koje se bave proizvodnjom dijamanata, i sada se nalazi u Jakutiji u radnoj poseti", poručili su iz Alrose.

Međutim, informacija koju su objavili neki mediji o tome da je on zaposlen u fondu Legg Mason Global Ašet Management Trust, nije tačna, i u Alrosi su iznenađeni njegovim dolaskom, saopštila je kompanija.

Kako je Tas ranije saznao u administraciji Mirnjinskog okruga Jakutije, Sigal je u sastavu delegacije iz SAD doputovao 6. avgusta u Mirnij radi procene investicione atraktivnosti kompanije Alrosa.

Prema programu putovanja, predstavnici fonda su u četvrtak posetili podzemni rudnik Mir i upoznali se sa tehnološkim procesom eksploatacije rude dijamanata. U petak su boravili u gradu Udačnij i posetili rudno-prerađivački kombinat. Za 10. avgust je planirano da delegacija ode u Moskvu.

Investiciona kompanija Legg Mason Global Ašet Management Trust je jedna od najvećih u SAD, sa sedištem u Baltimoru i aktivnostima u više od 190 zemalja sveta.

 

Edited August 9, 2015 by slow