Толстый и тонкий

[ManicMiner]

Nije bas tako:

 

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ukraine-poll-majorities-do-not-want-to-move-closer-to-eu-or-russia-300047151.html

 

Ukrajina jedte podeljena ali cak i u Donbasu priblizavanje Rusiji nema podrsku, a ako gledamo istok onda je podrska toj opciji na manje od 30%. Vise je linija podele EU vs neutralnost. Uz to ne deluje da ce neki Janukovich u skorije vreme doci na vlast. U tom smislu Ukrajina je za Rusiju na duze vreme izgubljena. Da su sacekali mogli su opet nekog svog da dovedu za koju godinu. Ovako mrka kapa. Naravno narodu ce se sve predstaviti kao velika pobeda na Krimu, ali je velika slika ta da Rusija nastavlja da gubi uticaj sto se vidi i po prisutnima na paradi.

Sto se prilicno poklapa sa stanjem pre kolapsa Janukovica i pocetka pucanja Ukrajine po savovima. Ni Janukoviceva partija nije bila za pricepljenje Rusiji, vec za EU, a izborna platfoma mu se pre svega bazirala na EU integracijama, iskorenjivanju korupcije i zauzdavanju oligarhije.

 

Preovladjujuca 'neutralnost' i jeste recidiv sovjetskih vremena, te da ponovim - pretezno nacionalisticki zapad i pretezno sovjetski istok.

[apostata]

Ne znam gdje ovo da stavim (imate na početku objašnjenje na engleskom):

 

 

 

 

(najzanimljivije počinje od 1:12, a policija dolazi na 1:18)

 

poluepilog: Elena Bočevar danas je dobila poziv na sud zbog huliganstva, prijeti joj kazna od 70 do 350 €. Rekla je da joj ne pada na pamet da plati kaznu i da će se žaliti Evropskim sudu.

[Ravanelli]

rus pobedijo!

 

 

Auto-put London, Moskva, Njujork?

IZVOR: TANJUG

Moskva -- Projekat auto-puta „Razvoj“ predsednika ruskih železnica, Vladimir Jakunjin, predviđa izgrađu auto-puta duž Transsibirske železnice.

 

Njegov predlog, koji je predstavio Ruskoj akademiji nauka, uključuje izgradnju auto-puta koji bi povezivao Atlantski i Tihi okean, ali i mogućnost da se brzim prugama putuje do Amerike.

 

Trasa takvog „superauto-puta“ prolazila bi kroz celu Rusiju, u dužini od čak 22.000 kilometara. 

 

Osim toga, kako prenosi CNN, taj projekat predviđa i izgradnju nove pruge, ali i naftovoda i gasovoda, kao i postavljanje električnih i vodovodnih postrojenja u najzabačenijim predelima zemlje. 

 

Taj megaauto-put pružao bi se celom dužinom Rusije, a integrisao bi se u postojeće putne deonice. 

 

Kako se navodi, realizaciju ovog projekta pratiće i pokretanje novih industrija, izgradnja novih gradova i otvaranja na hiljade radnih mesta. 

 

Premda veoma „ambiciozan i skup“, projekat se nameće kao nužnost  zbog potrebe povezivanja ogromne ruske teritorije. 

 

„To će rešiti mnoge razvojne probleme i omogućiti razvoj socijalnih programa kao i novih energetskih resursa“, objasnio je Jakunjin, ističući da će to „dati novu dimenziju budućnosti“. 

 

Projekat otvara mogućnost da se, paralelno sa auto-putem, gradi i linija brzih pruga do Vladivostoka. Ukoliko dođe do njegovog ostvarivanja, ta pruga bi mogla biti produžena i do Aljaske, što bi prvi put omogućilo da se kopnom putuje od Britanije, tunelom ispod Lamanša, sve do SAD. 

 

Najkraća razdaljina između Rusije i Aljaske iznosi oko 88 kilometara preko Beringovog moreuza koji razdvaja Aziju od Severne Amerike. 

 

U projektu nije objašnjeno kako bi se rešilo pitanja prelaska preko tog moreuza.

 

 

[barrcode]

preporuka.

Gebels v.2.0 ili sve ono što bi Mićan (sns über bot) voleo da bude/ima a nije/nema:

http://www.rferl.org/content/how-to-guide-russian-trolling-trolls/26919999.html

[Prospero]

može i ovde:
 

Russia & US agree to build new space station after ISS, work on joint Mars project

Published time: March 28, 2015 03:01
Edited time: March 28, 2015 04:57



International Space Station (Image from NASA.gov)

In a landmark decision, Russian space agency Roscosmos and its US counterpart NASA have agreed to build a new space station after the current International Space Station (ISS) expires. The operation of the ISS was prolonged until 2024.

“We have agreed that Roscosmos and NASA will be working together on the program of a future space station," Roscosmos chief Igor Komarov said during a news conference on Saturday.

The talks were held at Baikonur cosmodrome in Kazakhstan.

The two agencies will be unifying their standards and systems of manned space programs, according to Komarov. “This is very important to future missions and stations.”
The ISS life cycle was to expire in 2020. “Under the ISS program the door will be open to other participants,” Komarov told reporters.

The next goal for the two agencies is a joint mission to Mars, NASA chief Charles Bolden told journalists.

Roscosmos and NASA are working with each other and other partners on a global roadmap of space exploration, Bolden said.

“Our area of cooperation will be Mars. We are discussing how best to use the resources, the finance, we are setting time frames and distributing efforts in order to avoid duplication.”

NASA is currently committed to commercializing space activities. “We are consciously moving away from government financing of low-orbit missions,” Bolden said, adding that sometimes NASA “has been criticized” for that.

At the same time, he stressed that the US has not abandoned its goal of returning to the moon. In the future, NASA is planning “to attract more private developers to our joint exploration projects of the Moon and Mars,” Bolden said.

[Аврам Гојић]

mislim da mozemo reci da u Ukrajini nece biti nikakve prolecne ofanzive potpomognute iz Moskve.

[Muwan]

Ali zato kontraofanziva...

[Prospero]

tekst ne bi bio posebno zanimljiv da ga ne piše l. beršidski:
 
 

Putin's Economic Team Plays Houdini
 
Mar 27, 2015 3:25 PM EDT
By Leonid Bershidsky
 
Last week, the Russian central bank's currency reserves increased for the first time since last July, showing that the economy may have moved past the panic caused by last year's oil price slump. Perhaps Russia's improving indicators will convince Western governments that economic sanctions are having no discernible effect and that President Vladimir Putin's regime and the country it runs aren't facing imminent collapse.

Russia has lost a little more than a quarter of its foreign reserves since mid-July 2014:

 

The decline was particularly sharp last December, as the central bank frantically sought a way to stop the ruble from losing value against the dollar. The much gentler slope on the chart -- beginning in January -- says more about the structure of Russia's foreign reserves than about chronic depletion.

In January 2014, Russia held $131.8 billion of U.S. debt. As its relationship with the U.S. deteriorated after the revolution in Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea, Russia began shrinking its dollar reserves and increasing the share of euros and gold. While the reserves as a whole dropped 23.9 percent in 2014, the holdings of U.S. debt fell 37.6 percent, to $82.2 billion. Russia now holds less U.S. Treasury securities than Ireland, Turkey or Singapore.

The total value of foreign reserves is expressed in dollars, so Russia's euro-heavy stockpile took a hit from the dollar's rapid appreciation against the euro this year. The central bank no longer had to prop up the ruble with big foreign exchange sales: The currency has been doing OK so far this year, partly because oil has bounced back from January lows, and partly because Russia, with an interest rate of 17 percent at the beginning of the year and 14 percent now, became an attractive, though risky, carry trade destination. A glance at the relationship between the ruble and the price of Brent crude shows that the currency is now doing better than the oil benchmark -- that's a sign that the carry trade, in which speculators borrow in dollars and lend in rubles, is pushing it upward:

 In the week ended March 20, the euro gained a little more than 3 percent against the U.S. dollar; that was the reason for the $1.2 billion uptick in Russian foreign reserves. 
Many of the unfavorable forecasts for the Russian economy -- such as the one published a month ago by Anders Aslund of the Peterson Institute for International Economics -- were predicated on the melting away of currency reserves. "Russia's reserve situation is approaching a critical limit," Aslund wrote. "At present, Russia loses more than $10 billion a month, which means that a real reserve crisis will erupt in the third quarter." That, however, is not going to happen unless the price of oil starts going down steeply again.

Analysts are divided about the future of oil prices, with predictions ranging from $50 to $90 per barrel of Brent in the fourth quarter of this year. But the consensus forecast compiled by Bloomberg put it at $68.65 today -- higher than the actual price of $57.5. The Russian Economy Ministry has also suggested raising the official oil price forecast from $50 per barrel -- in line with the most pessimistic of analysts -- but the government has so far resisted these calls, preferring to remain cautious.

The current government forecast says the Russian economy will shrink 3 percent. If oil is higher than budgeted, however, the decline -- which is inevitable for structural reasons, and because of the abnormally high interest rates left over from last year's defense of the ruble and that remain useful because they attract the carry trade -- will be even less pronounced. Economists polled by Bloomberg still expect, on average, a 4 percent drop, but Goldman Sachs, for example, now predicts a decline of only 2.7 percent -- in line with some forecasts from Russian liberal economists. 

To be sure, that's hardly a stellar economic performance. It's painful for a country as big as Russia to have its crucial economic indicators depend so heavily on civil strife in Yemen and the debt problems of U.S. frackers -- both important determinants of the oil price. The country's oil dependency won't end anytime soon, however, and so far Russia's key market has stabilized at an acceptable level. 

So where do the Western sanctions come in? They don't. It's easy to see how Russian economic indicators react to developments in oil and foreign exchange markets, but not to the trade and funding restrictions. They are a nuisance to a number of Russian companies, but Sberbank, the mammoth state institution now unable to obtain Western funding, still reported a healthy profit of $7.7 billion for 2014. That's less than for the year before, but still far from tragic. 

Russia's economic managers, especially at the Central Bank and the Finance Ministry, should be given their due: In a difficult environment, they have avoided major mistakes and managed to keep open Russia's economy. Putin has plenty of advisers who would prefer a different approach, arguing for "fortress Russia," but despite the instincts that feed the president's own siege mentality, he has chosen wisely whom to empower. Despite the Soviet revival theatrics Putin has employed -- at a recent meeting, he pointedly addressed top operatives of Russia's FSB domestic intelligence as "comrades" -- Russia remains a major market economy that cannot be derailed by a few timid restrictions.

That makes it both a bigger threat to weak neighbors such as Ukraine, as well as an underrated land of opportunity. It's not for nothing that in its 2015 investor sentiment survey, the CFA Institute -- a global association of investment professionals -- named Russia one of the top markets for equity performance this year, along with the U.S., China and India.

[Meazza]

Eto, smejte se sad Zaz_piju.

[Ravanelli]

mba za sada vredi svakog reala

[Prospero]

Bez obzira ko je napisao tekst, zakljucci su pogresni.

 

Fakti: Rusija je potrosila cetvrtinu deviznih rezervi da odbrani kurs. Projektovani pad ruske ekonomije je 3%.

 

Tekst kaze da pad rezervi nije zapravo pad, vec restrukturiranje zato sto je ruska banka prodala americke bondove. Bullshit 101, rezerve su pale, pa su pale bez obzira na njihovu strukturu.

 

Cena nafte: tekst tvrdi da ce pad ekonomije biti manji zato sto ce cena nafte rasti i to zasniva na zaduzenosti americkih proizvodjaca nafte iz skriljaca. Ja tu vidim jasnu povratnu spregu: kako cena nafte bude rasla, tako ce se i problemi americkih proizvodjaca resavati i oni ce opet postajati konkurentni. Ne znam nista o nafti, ali mi to deluje prilicno ocigledno - frakeri imaju visoke fiksne troskove i malu marginu pri sadasnjim cenama nafte. Pri visoj ceni, proizvodjaci su blize breakeven tacki, pa ce proizvoditi vise da bi smanjili varijabilne troskove po barelu i cena nafte ce se ustaliti na nekom nivou. U najboljem slucaju za Rusiju, bice to na dovoljno niskom nivou koji ne stimulira znacajne investicije u alternativne izvore. Kako god, oni su u problemu dok god ne diversifikuju ekonomiju, jer im dugorocno ne odgovara ni previse visoka, ni niska cena.

 

Kako su uspeli da stabilizuju ekonomiju: sankcije su im pomogle tako sto su se potrosaci okrenuli domacim proizvodima. Pitanje je koliko je to dugorocno odrzivo - nek se javi Budja da objasni uticaj elasticnosti na kratkorocnu i dugorocnu potrosnju. Ukratko, neke stvari potrosaci nastavljaju da kupuju u prvo vreme, da bi prestali nakon odredjenog vremena. Zasto bi to radili? Zato sto im je drasticno opala kupovna moc, devalvacija rublje je prelila efekat sankcija na gradjane. Ima ovde ljudi koji svakodnevno saradjuju sa Rusijom ili tamo zive i bilo bi zanimljivo cuti njihovo misljenje. Na osnovu mojih kontakata sa Rusima, nivo ekonomskih aktivnosti u Rusiji se drasticno smanjio.

 

bold 1 - pa ne kaže to, kaže "says more about the structure of Russia's foreign reserves than about chronic depletion", on uvodi u razmatranje pada rezervi i pitanje denominacije, jer je o samom padu mnogo već napisano a pitanje valute je ostalo zapostavljeno.

 

bold 2 - ali to nije bio problem za rusku naftnu industriju, ako svi mogu da se ugrade u cenu od 100$ šta ih briga što će i frekeri da zarade dok oni imaju veliku zaradu. no, to bi verovatno dovelo do ponovnog brzog pada, stoga se i percipira ova cena koja je nešto viša od sadašnje kao new norm za kratki rok, a ta cena je već dovoljno dobra za ruske proizvođače i budžetski priliv jer je veća od budžetske predikcije od 50$.

 

bold 3 - to je gotovo izvesno tačno

 

bold 4 - beršidski ne kaže to, on samo kaže da je teško utvrditi trgovinski efekat parcijalnih sankcija - "It's easy to see how Russian economic indicators react to developments in oil and foreign exchange markets, but not to the trade and funding restrictions.". naravno da potrošač u rusiji i dalje kupuje npr ariston veš mašinu iz uvoza, to prosto nije na spisku sankcija. jedine sankcije u trgovini su zabrana uvoza prehrambenih proizvoda u rusiju i određene zabrane eu koje su specifino vezane za region krima. u smislu "supstitucije uvoza" bilo kakvi efekti će se tek moći videti u budućnosti, ako se išta ozbiljno radilo u tom smislu a verovatno da nije i da je više to pričano kao patriotska priča za javnost.

bitan je i ovaj drugi komentar jer je bazično tačan - "In a difficult environment, they have avoided major mistakes and managed to keep open Russia's economy." čega je dokaz i ova percepcija na kraju teksta, o "poverenju investitora".

 

 

ne vidim da ima "čvrste" zaključke osim da sankcije imaju vrlo mali uticaj na ekonomsko stanje, da je pad cene nafte ponajveći faktor ekonomskih problema, da se deo pada deviznih rezervi da objasniti i jačanjem dolara (kao uostalom i pad cene nafte u dolarima), i da je ekonomija zavisna od cene nafte što se skoro neće promeniti, a da je ekonomija ostala otvorena i tržišna  dalje.

 

oprezni 'optimizam' teksta je jako bitan jer beršidski je veliki kritičar i putina i performansi ruske ekonomije. ako je pad bio viđen na 5% onda je pad od 3% uspeh, tj. 'uspeh' je lepo kaže "that's hardly a stellar economic performance".

[Roger Sanchez]

On Monday, a Culture Ministry statement said that Mezdrich’s sacking was caused by his unwillingness to consider the traditional values accepted in society, by a lack of respect for public opinion and for refusing to follow the recommendations of the theater’s sponsors.

Edited March 30, 2015 by Roger Sanchez

[Budja]

Bez obzira ko je napisao tekst, zakljucci su pogresni.

 

Fakti: Rusija je potrosila cetvrtinu deviznih rezervi da odbrani kurs. Projektovani pad ruske ekonomije je 3%.

 

Tekst kaze da pad rezervi nije zapravo pad, vec restrukturiranje zato sto je ruska banka prodala americke bondove. Bullshit 101, rezerve su pale, pa su pale bez obzira na njihovu strukturu.

 

Cena nafte: tekst tvrdi da ce pad ekonomije biti manji zato sto ce cena nafte rasti i to zasniva na zaduzenosti americkih proizvodjaca nafte iz skriljaca. Ja tu vidim jasnu povratnu spregu: kako cena nafte bude rasla, tako ce se i problemi americkih proizvodjaca resavati i oni ce opet postajati konkurentni. Ne znam nista o nafti, ali mi to deluje prilicno ocigledno - frakeri imaju visoke fiksne troskove i malu marginu pri sadasnjim cenama nafte. Pri visoj ceni, proizvodjaci su blize breakeven tacki, pa ce proizvoditi vise da bi smanjili varijabilne troskove po barelu i cena nafte ce se ustaliti na nekom nivou. U najboljem slucaju za Rusiju, bice to na dovoljno niskom nivou koji ne stimulira znacajne investicije u alternativne izvore. Kako god, oni su u problemu dok god ne diversifikuju ekonomiju, jer im dugorocno ne odgovara ni previse visoka, ni niska cena.

 

Kako su uspeli da stabilizuju ekonomiju: sankcije su im pomogle tako sto su se potrosaci okrenuli domacim proizvodima. Pitanje je koliko je to dugorocno odrzivo - nek se javi Budja da objasni uticaj elasticnosti na kratkorocnu i dugorocnu potrosnju. Ukratko, neke stvari potrosaci nastavljaju da kupuju u prvo vreme, da bi prestali nakon odredjenog vremena. Zasto bi to radili? Zato sto im je drasticno opala kupovna moc, devalvacija rublje je prelila efekat sankcija na gradjane. Ima ovde ljudi koji svakodnevno saradjuju sa Rusijom ili tamo zive i bilo bi zanimljivo cuti njihovo misljenje. Na osnovu mojih kontakata sa Rusima, nivo ekonomskih aktivnosti u Rusiji se drasticno smanjio.

 

Zasto ja?

Ja sam racunovodja koji zna nesto malo o ekonomiji. Mejdejka je bolji sagovornik.

 

Slazem se da ideja kako ce nafta da se digne nije na cvrstim osnovama.

Ne slazem se oko sankcija. Koliko ja shvatam, nije EU uvela snakcije na izvoz vec Rusija na uvoz nekih poljopridvrednih proizvoda. Zamena strukture potrosnje nije posledica nikakvih sankcija, vec pada rublje, a to je u vezi sa cenom nafte.

 

Drugim recima, slazem se sa Prosperom.

[Budja]

Eto, smejte se sad Zaz_piju.

 

Naravno da cemo nastaviti da se smejemo njegovom "nije to nista" pristupu.

Oko uticaja pada cene nafte, vec se ovde nasiroko diskutovalo tako da ovaj clanak samo potvrdjuje sentiment te diskusije iz decembra.

[kobni zelaya]

 

On Monday, a Culture Ministry statement said that Mezdrich’s sacking was caused by his unwillingness to consider the traditional values accepted in society, by a lack of respect for public opinion and for refusing to follow the recommendations of the theater’s sponsors.

 

 

Jezivo, pratim čitavu ovu situaciju. Pozorište je jedna od najvitalnijih stvari u Rusa, a kada se saberu kvalitet, raznovrsnost, dometi i širina publike, nema pandana ruskoj pozorišnoj sceni u svetu. I sad su se namerili bolidi to da upropaste.

Očigledno je da se vlast po ovom pitanju ponaša populistički, popušta radikalnim mantijašima, pretpostavljam. jer im je ovo "manje bitna stvar".

 Inače, Mezdrič je dao intervju za Izvestja.