Nafta sintetička i sve druge

[Zaz_pi]

Oil Security 2025Commission on Energy and Geopolitics

In our decades-long military and diplomatic careers, the members of the Commission on Energy and Geopolitics have experienced the heavy toll exacted by America’s dependence on oil. In its inaugural work,Oil Security2025: U.S. National Security Policy in an Era of Domestic Oil Abundance, theCommission analyzes the potential for domestic oil abundance to impactU.S. foreign policy and national security in the coming decade and presentsa series of recommendations designed to safeguard and advance U.S. inter-ests in an ever-dynamic global energy landscape.Oil dependence has contributed to U.S. involvement in regions of theworld that are often unstable and sometimes hostile to American interests.Domestic oil abundance will not end these involvements, largely due to the enduring importance of oil to the U.S. economy and transportation sector in particular. As such—and contrary to some predictions—instability in the Middle East will continue to pose economic risk for the United States, a fact that will infl uence national security policy. In fact, no matter how close thecountry comes to oil self-suffi ciency, volatility in the global oil market will remain a serious concern.Perhaps most importantly, domestic oil abundance will allow the UnitedStates to pursue policy changes in two key epicenters in global oil: theMiddle East and China. In the Middle East, following two decades of heavy military and intelligence operations, the Commission recommends

Admiral Dennis C. Blair, U.S. Navy (Ret.)Former Director of National Intelligence andFormer Commander-in-Chief, U.S. Pacifi c CommandGeneral Michael W. Hagee, U.S. Marine Corps (Ret.)33rd Commandant, U.S. Marine CorpsNa njihovu zalost, ili srecu,, posto se radi o vojnicima, nece dugo potrajati rast proizvodnje sto je EIA potvrdila u svom izvestaju za ovu godinu(doduse, oni su poznati po promasjina, skoro uvek precene situaciju). Ovo sma ovde stavio da bih, jos jednom, pokazao koliko nafta znaci za SAD kao i da pokazem da skoro cela politika na Bliskom Istoku je podredjena tome, cak i kada se ne vidi na prvi pogled.

[Ravanelli]

loma o gasu i frekingu

 

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/slideshow/2014-02-21/cracked-20-things-to-know-about-gas-money-and-power.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Veletin]

Opa bato.

 

Repsol prihvatio nepristojnu ponudu

[Ravanelli]

neočekivano brzo, moram priznati

[Zaz_pi]

 

Shale Drillers Feast on Junk Debt to Stay on Treadmill

 

Rice Energy Inc. (RICE:US), a natural gas producer with risky credit, raised $900 million in three days this month, $150 million more than it originally sought.

Not bad for the Canonsburg, Pennsylvania-based company’s first bond issue after going public in January. Especially since it has lost money three years in a row, has drilled fewer than 50 wells -- most named after superheroes and monster trucks -- and said it will spend $4.09 for every $1 it earns in 2014.

The U.S. drive for energy independence is backed by a surge in junk-rated borrowing that’s been as vital as the technological breakthroughs that enabled the drilling spree. While the high-yield debt market has doubled in size since the end of 2004, the amount issued by exploration and production companies has grown nine-fold, according to Barclays Plc. That’s what keeps the shale revolution going even as companies spend money faster than they make it.

Story: Junk Bonds Fuel the Shale Boom

“There’s a lot of Kool-Aid that’s being drunk now by investors,” Tim Gramatovich, who helps manage more than $800 million as chief investment officer of Santa Barbara, California-based Peritus Asset Management LLC. “People lose their discipline. They stop doing the math. They stop doing the accounting. They’re just dreaming the dream, and that’s what’s happening with the shale boom.”

Quality Assets

Rice Energy was able to borrow so easily because of the quality of its assets, which are in some of the best areas of the Marcellus, a shale formation beneath western Pennsylvania and West Virginia, and the company’s drilling success there, said Gray Lisenby, Rice’s chief financial officer. Demand was so high, in fact, that earlier this month Rice halted a planned four-city road show intended to entice lenders. Interest from investors after the first three stops overwhelmed expectations, Lisenby said.

Companies with a lot of debt relative to earnings use junk bonds to raise cash. Investors get higher returns because of the increased odds of not getting paid back. The debt is in demand because the Federal Reserve has held interest rates near zero for more than five years, shrinking returns on safer bets. The popularity has pushed down borrowing costs for companies trying to unlock oil and natural gas trapped in deep underground layers of rock like the Bakken shale in North Dakota or the Eagle Ford in Texas.

Story: Greenland's Prime Minister Looks on Global Warming's Bright Side

Rice Energy’s bond offering this month was rated CCC+ by Standard & Poor’s, seven steps below investment grade, or the level above which some institutional investors, such as pension funds and insurance companies, are allowed to buy. S&P says debt rated in the CCC range is “currently vulnerable to nonpayment” and, in adverse conditions, bonds with that grade aren’t likely to be repaid. Even so, Rice Energy was able to borrow at 6.25 percent. That compares with 9.5 percent for other bonds with similar ratings, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data.

 

Imaju i nove finansijske derivate za ove poslove...

Rusi sa racionalizacijom budzeta mogu padom cene nafte da naprave haos u americkom/saudijskom/irackom/libijskom...ekonomskom sistemu. Pomognu malo Evropi i mnogo Kini. Cena posle toga ide na $150 za barel :)

[Eraserhead]

President Obama Announces Advances for Solar Deployment and Energy Efficiency

[Zaz_pi]

Imao je on vec te projekte primera radi-Solyndra. Cuvena afera u SAD.

 

FBI searches offices of Solyndra; lawmakers say they were misled about firm’s finances

Solyndra Loan: Now Treasury Dept. Is Launching Investigation

Chu takes responsibility for a loan deal that put more taxpayer money at risk in Solyndra

 

 

Energy Secretary Steven Chu acknowledged Thursday making the final decision to allow a struggling solar company to continue receiving taxpayer money after it had technically defaulted on a $535 million federal loan guaranteed by his agency.

 

Izgleda da su donatori kampanje iz Silikonske doline ponovo u igri za vracanje ulozenog. ;) Ne moze samo matori Bafet da zaradjuje na prevozu nafte zeleznicom.

edit: Cudi me da ti o tome nemas pojma a zivis u SAD?

Mozda zato sto je cela afera Solyndra zataskana.

Edited May 14, 2014 by Zaz_pi

[Zaz_pi]

Inace kada sam vec kod "alternativnih" izvora energije poput vetra, sunca...Je l' se secate price kako Nemcima to bas super ide? Izgleda da ne ide. Inace Nemacka dan danas trosi duplo vise nafte po glavi stanovnika od Rusija i 4 puta vise od Kine, dobro to bas i nije cudno, za Ruse vec jeste. Ali o tome kada dodjem do Kjoto protokola i svih oni koji danas tako mnogo vode racuna o emisiji CO2 a zive preko Atlantika. :)

Da se vratima na "uspesnu" energetsku tranziciju u Nemackoj.

Spegel kaze:Reform der Energiewende: Teure Ingenieursromantik(Reforma energetske tranzicije: Skupa inzenjerska romansa)

 

 

The Government reformed the green electricity , it does not solve the problems . Instead of economic rationality prevails typical German technology infatuation - as once the Transrapid .

 

Pa, dalje:

 

 

Spiegel: Germany’s Failed ‘Energiewende’ Dissuades Abbott And Australia From Pursuing Green Energies

The Premier will not be controlled . He comes in handy for this is that in Germany the cost of the energy revolution exploded. The former model Federal Republic is cited as a deterrent . "We can not afford to follow the model of Germany's us," is Ron Boswell, Senator of the State of Queensland, quoted in the newspaper "The Australian " . Germany was due to the expansion of renewable sources with the highest energy prices in the world .

 

Sada i nemacki ministar energetike kaze da se sve pretvara u propast:

 

In a stunning admission by Germany’s Economics Minister and Vice Chancellor to Angela Merkel, Sigmar Gabriel announced in a recent speech that the country’s once highly ballyhooed transformation to renewable energy, the so called Energiewende, a model that has been adopted by a number of countries worldwide, is “on the verge of failure“.

 

Ali su uspeli toliko da se pomere da gigant nemacke ekonomija RWE ostvari prvi godinsnji gubitak u poslednjih 64 godine-RWE Suffers First Loss Since Founding of German Republic

 

 

The country’s largest power generator posted a net loss of 2.76 billion euros ($3.8 billion)

 

Ali nema brige, Nemci su nasli resenje, moderno i ekolosko:

 

 

 

Mozda je jasnije sto Nemci i nije do sankcija Rusiji.

[Roger Sanchez]

hm.

 

A surge in wind and solar energy, now 23 percent of generation, has curbed prices, already weakened by Europe’s economic crisis.

[Zaz_pi]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7Ca72-WxuI

 

Ako svapski ministar laze onda lazem i ja.

 

Elem, da se vratim na naftu.

Trenutno u svetu nafte se desavaju zanimljive stvari. Velike zapadne naftne kompanije, poznate i kao "Sedam sestara"(postavicu dokumentarac koji govori o njihovom uticaju u svetu), nekada drzale naftni kartel sve dok Venecuelanci nisu ujedinili Arape u OPEC i poceli nacionalizovati naftna polja te kontrolisati nivo proizvodnje i cene, a to je danas 5 velikih kompanija: Exxon, BP. Shell, Total i Chevron,  sve seku ulaganje u razvoj i eksplataciju, sto ce u nekom srednjom roku dovesti do skoka cene nafte. Evo sta se desava:

 

 

I pred skoka cene nafte od nekoliko puta, trosenja nekoliko biliona(triliona) $ proizvodnja je u padu od 2008.

Evo sta se desava, cena nafte koja se eksplatise u Severnoj Americi(uska nafta-skrljci i bitumen), vadjenje ia Okeana i teska nafta je izuzetno skupa u odnosu na naftu u ranijem periodu, ili kakav se vadi na Bliskom istoku:

 

 

Cena eksplatacije na Bliskom istoku. Pa se desavaju ovakve stvari:

 

Talisman, Statoil Said to Be Exploring Sale of Texas Venture

Shell Begins Sale of U.S. Shale Assets Following Charge

 

Ostaju manje kompanije koje se, dorbim delom, finansiraju iz zaduzivanja i maksimlanog izvlacenja nafte iz najboljih bunara te preprodaje zemljiste.

[Eraserhead]

Ne znam kako su Solyndra i ova Obamina inicijativa povezane.

 

 

 

 

postavicu dokumentarac koji govori o njihovom uticaju u svetu

 

Malagurski?

[Zaz_pi]

Obecao sam dokumentarac, prvi deo:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TXG70xAnSU

 

Predlazem da odgledate.

Inace, danas su najvece naftne kompanije po rezervama na svetu drzavne poput saudijskog Aramco(doduse, to je problematicno ali to jednom kada budem pisao o OPECu,sada nemam vremena :) ). Najveca naftna kompanija po kolicini proizvedene nafte na berzi je ruski Rosnjeft. Tu je i kineski CNPC, kao veliki igrac. Znacajna promena u odnosu na sredinu XX veka.

[Zaz_pi]

Ne znam kako su Solyndra i ova Obamina inicijativa povezane.

 

 

 

Malagurski?

 

Ne, kao sto mozes videti. Cela prica je bazirana na knjizi koja je dobila Pulicera. Predlazem ti da odgledas posto ocigledno ne znas mnogo toga oko SAD. Ljubav je slepa.

Edited May 14, 2014 by Zaz_pi

[Zaz_pi]

 

Shakeout Threatens Shale Patch as Frackers Go for Broke

 

The U.S. shale patch is facing a shakeout as drillers struggle to keep pace with the relentless spending needed to get oil and gas out of the ground.

Shale debt has almost doubled over the last four years while revenue has gained just 5.6 percent, according to a Bloomberg News analysis of 61 shale drillers. A dozen of those wildcatters are spending at least 10 percent of their sales on interest compared with Exxon Mobil Corp.’s 0.1 percent.

“The list of companies that are financially stressed is considerable,” said Benjamin Dell, managing partner of Kimmeridge Energy, a New York-based alternative asset manager focused on energy. “Not everyone is going to survive. We’ve seen it before.”

Some investors are already bailing out. On May 23, Loews Corp. (L), the holding company run by New York’s Tisch family, said it is weighing the sale of HighMount Exploration & Production LLC, its oil and natural gas subsidiary, at a loss.

HighMount lost $20 million in the first three months of the year, after being unprofitable in 2013 and 2012, Loews said it its financial reports. As with much of the industry, HighMount has shifted its focus to oil after natural gas prices plunged and has struggled to find sites worth developing, company records show.

Mary Skafidas, a spokeswoman for Loews, declined comment.

In a measure of the shale industry’s financial burden, debt hit $163.6 billion in the first quarter, according to company records compiled by Bloomberg on 61 exploration and production companies that target oil and natural gas trapped in deep underground layers of rock. And companies including Forest Oil Corp. (FST), Goodrich Petroleum Corp. (GDP) and Quicksilver Resources Inc. (KWK) racked up interest expense of more than 20 percent.

Production Declines

Quicksilver acknowledges the company is over-leveraged, said David Erdman, a spokesman for Quicksilver. The company’s interest expense equaled almost 45 percent of revenue in the first quarter. “We have taken concrete measures to reduce debt,” he said.

Drillers are caught in a bind. They must keep borrowing to pay for exploration needed to offset the steep production declines typical of shale wells. At the same time, investors have been pushing companies to cut back. Spending tumbled at 26 of the 61 firms examined. For companies that can’t afford to keep drilling, less oil coming out means less money coming in, accelerating the financial tailspin.

Interest Expenses

“Interest expenses are rising,” said Virendra Chauhan, an oil analyst with Energy Aspects in London. “The risk for shale producers is that because of the production decline rates, you constantly have elevated capital expenditures.”

Chauhan wrote a report last year titled “The Other Tale of Shale” that showed interest expenses are gobbling up a growing share of revenue at 35 companies he studied. Interest expense for the 61 companies examined by Bloomberg totalled almost $2 billion in the first quarter, 4.1 percent of revenue, up from 2.3 percent four years ago.

The drilling spree boosted U.S. oil production to 8.4 million barrels a day, 16 percent more than a year ago and the highest since 1986. Growth has been driven by advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, which unlocked crude and natural gas trapped in formations like North Dakota’s Bakken shale or the Marcellus in the U.S. northeast.

Costly Gains

The gains haven’t come cheaply. Goodrich said earlier this month that it’s trying to whittle its well costs in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale down to $11.5 million apiece. The $1.1 billion company, based in Houston, spent almost $52 million more than it earned in the first quarter.

The company has enough money to cover its 2014 capital needs and is working with its board to fund 2015 as it ramps up drilling, spokesman Daniel Jenkins said in an e-mail.

A successful well announced last month has propelled Goodrich shares to $25.34, more than double the 2014 low of $12.28.

While borrowing to spend is typical of start-up companies, it’s not always sustainable. Forest Oil, where interest expense totaled 27 percent of revenue in the first quarter, in February reported disappointing well results, and warned that it might run afoul of its debt agreements. Forest on May 6 announced a plan to sell itself to Sabine Oil & Gas LLC in an all-stock transaction. Denver-based Forest declined to put a value on the deal. The company declined comment. Shares have declined 39 percent so far this year.

Eagle Ford

Zaza Energy Corp. (ZAZA), which got its start as a joint venture with Hess Corp. (HES), bought up oil rights in the Eagle Ford shale field and the nearby Eaglebine in South Texas, near the heart of the U.S. oil boom. Its first quarter revenue fell short of interest expense. The firm’s accountants in March voiced “substantial doubt” about the Houston-based company’s ability to stay afloat.

Hess, which dissolved the partnership almost two years ago, lost money on the deal. And its foray into what has turned out to be the biggest shale play in the U.S. prompted Elliott Management Corp., billionaire Paul Singer’s investment firm, to oust John Hess last year from the chairmanship of a company his father founded more than 80 years ago. Zaza has since entered into a joint venture with EOG Resources Inc. in Houston, one of the few shale companies to bring in more cash than it spends. Zaza’s shares have declined 28 percent this year.

“We are now significantly increasing our production volumes and revenue,” said Todd A. Brooks, president and chief executive officer.

Negative Outlook

Swift Energy Co. (SFY) has slowed drilling while trying to sell acreage or find a partner to shoulder some of the costs. The company on May 6 announced a $175 million joint venture with a unit of a government-controlled energy company in Indonesia. The proceeds will be used to help pay down debt. The deal announcement still didn’t stop Standard & Poor’s from cutting Swift’s credit rating on May 15 and tagging the company with a negative outlook. Shares have declined 19 percent so far this year.

“Traditionally we’ve been a financially conservative company,” said Bruce Vincent, president of Houston-based Swift. “We’ve become more leveraged than we historically have been and we’ve become uncomfortable with that.”

 

[Zaz_pi]

To je inace Blooomberg preneo.

Da vidimo sta kaze Reuter za rezerve:

 

UPDATE 2-U.S. EIA cuts recoverable Monterey shale oil estimate by 96 pct

May 21 (Reuters) - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday cut its estimate of recoverable oil in California's Monterey shale by 96 percent, casting doubt on what was once thought to be America's next major energy play.

In what could be welcome news for environmentalists and a potentially bad omen for oil drillers, such as Venoco Inc, with large leases in the region, the EIA slashed its forecast of technically recoverable reserves, citing production difficulties from initial wells.

The reserves were downgraded by 96 percent, from 13.7 billion barrels estimated by a government-funded report in 2011, to just 600 million barrels, the EIA said. A detailed report is expected to be released next month.

"The EIA concluded that the technical recoverability of Monterey shale did not look as strong in 2014 because of the industry's difficulty in producing from the region," EIA head Adam Sieminski told reporters in New York.

Technically recoverable reserves are often a moving target, changing as new drilling techniques develop and the price of oil fluctuates. Further drilling will likely provide clearer evidence of the Monterey's true reserves, the EIA said.

Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, which involves cracking open shale rock using water, sand and chemicals, has unlocked vast amounts of oil and gas in recent years from other shale plays like the Bakken in North Dakota and the Marcellus centered in Pennsylvania, transforming the estimated amount of recoverable oil over the last decade.

But fracking alone has failed to produce the same results in the geology of the Monterey shale in central California, dampening expectations for a resource once thought to rival other giant U.S. shale deposits and seen as an economic boon for the state. Some drillers have turned to other methods, including using acid to help melt rock, though progress has been slow and met with strong environmental opposition.

Oil driller Occidental, one of the major leaseholders in the state, earlier this year put its California business up for sale in part due to lagging oil production.

"Not all resources are created equal," Sieminski said. "It turned out that it is harder to crack the reservoirs and get the oil flowing from the Monterey" than from Bakken or the south Texas formation of Eagle Ford.

The downgrade will not impact near term production in the Monterey, estimates of which have increased to 57,000 barrels per day on average between 2010 and 2040, the EIA said on Wednesday. Last year's estimate for 2010 to 2040 was 14,000 barrels per day.

The downgrade does not mean that the oil will not one day be recovered, Sieminski said. Indeed, much of the oil and gas in the Bakken and Marcellus was not always considered recoverable as technology lagged.

 

Upravo je 60% rezervi nafte iz skriljaca otpisano u SAD. Treba veca cena $130-150 da bi postalo profitabilno za eksplataciju. Doduse, nisam siguran da svetska ekonomija tu cenu moze da izdrzi.